Recent comments by Rajesh

Holy inventory instability, Batman!

Cr wrote

Change in private inventories added 1.66 percentage points to growth after subtracting 1.16 in Q1.

Whipsaw!

Your mother was a hamster.
and your father smelt of elderberries.

French Taunting - Monty Python and the Holy Grail - YouTube

mr_clueless wrote:

i'm sure it has nothing to do with that.

We won't know until if blows up.

X-12-ARIMA 

X-12-ARIMA is the U.S. Census Bureau's software package for seasonal adjustment. It can be used together with many statistical packages, such as Gretl or EViews which provides a graphical user interface for X-12-ARIMA, and NumXL which avails X-12-ARIMA functionality in Microsoft Excel.

mr_clueless wrote:

is there a formal term?

The seasonal adjustment factor is calculated based on the recent history of the value (price, volume, etc.) Typically it focuses on the behavior of the last five years, with the prior year being given the most weight.

mr_clueless wrote:

what does it mean to seasonally adjust prices?

There is a pattern to house prices. Prices rise during the spring buying season and then fall into the winter months. The seasonal adjustment tries to make April prices comparable to May prices. May prices are normally higher than April prices, once the adjustment is applied you can see if the rise in May prices is more (or less) than the 'normal' increase between the months.

I keep hearing that inflationary expectations are well anchored but 10-yr bunds yielding 1.1% makes me think that expectations are not well anchored.

vtcodger wrote:

someone equally ruthless.

Slobodan_Milošević wasn't ruthless enough for you?

In the midst of the NATO bombing of Yugoslavia in 1999, Milošević was charged by the International Criminal Tribunal for the former Yugoslavia (ICTY).[2] with war crimes including genocide, and crimes against humanity in connection to the wars in Bosnia, Croatia and Kosovo.

Goodhart's_law

Its most popular formulation is: "When a measure becomes a target, it ceases to be a good measure."

It just takes one atomic bomb to ruin your whole day.

If we don't solve the problems of the 22nd Century, well, the 23rd Century will be all messed up!

energyecon wrote:

let's not get ahead of ourselves.

This is HCN! Why not?

Let's.

energyecon wrote:

get in the way of partisan diatribe

When sock puppets collide?

Bubblisimo Gerkinov wrote:

radically different depending on party in power?

It's been so long since a different party has been in power, I have no idea. The two arms of the imperialist party don't count.

Bubblisimo Gerkinov wrote:

Now: Afghanistan is America's Afghanistan.

I thought Afghanistan is Obama's Iraq.

Bubblisimo Gerkinov wrote:

US support for the Mujahedin started with Reagan, no?

In the last years of Carter's term.

Cinco-X wrote:

The Soviets invaded in '79,

Afghanistan was already a Soviet ally. There were already Russian advisers in the country. However the Afghan Communist Party was not having success imposing their will on the country. The head of the Communist party was killed and replaced by his deputy. Russian troops were sent to reinforce the Afghan army.

It is much more like the U.S. experience in Vietnam than anything else.

Bubblisimo Gerkinov wrote:

Carter wasn't running remote control proxy wars that I remember.

How quickly people forget the Mujaheddin!.

Cinco-X wrote:

did they have a good cell phone business?

For about fifteen years it was the bread and butter. But then Best Buy stepped up their cellphone center.

Bubblisimo Gerkinov wrote:

When you owe the bank $40,000,000, it's their problem.

What if you owe the bank € 1,000,000,000 and you own 25% of the bank?

Cinco-X wrote:

they got addicted to the easy money

Cell Phones in the 90's were much more profitable than PC's

Im shocked, shocked to find that gambling is going on in here! Hu Knows
China to investigate once-powerful Zhou Yongkang, former domestic security chief - The Washington Post

China’s Communist Party launched an investigation Tuesday into former domestic security chief Zhou Yongkang, the most powerful leader yet to be targeted by President Xi Jinping’s anti-corruption campaign.

The bold move by Xi comes after two years of rumors and evidence of a carefully plotted, politically explosive plan to take down Zhou. During that time, investigators methodically detained and investigated a series of party underlings and oil executives whose careers were linked to Zhou.

Argentina debt deal near!
BUENOS AIRES, Argentina: Argentina fights with debt holdouts; default nears - Business Breaking News - MiamiHerald.com

WHAT COULD THIS MEAN FOR ARGENTINES?

Economists and businesses warn it would further choke off Argentina's ability to obtain dollars through international financial markets and would complicate the government's plans to loosen the foreign exchange market, restricted since late 2011. Private businesses and local governments would find it harder to get dollars or international credit, leading to fewer jobs. It could drive down the value of Argentina's peso against the scarce dollars and drive inflation even higher.

According to private economists, the country's inflation was 30 percent in 2013. So far in 2014, it is 19 percent. According to the government, the rate in 2014 is 15 percent.

"We believe that a default would be completely negative because the Argentine economy day by day already is in recession," said Carugati of Management & Fit. "This, for the average citizen, would mean greater pressures on the rate of exchange ... and obviously would end up aggravating the recession that already is underway."

Incredible_Universe

Initially, two stores were opened, in Arlington, Texas, and Wilsonville, Oregon; when these proved profitable, parent company Tandy decided to expand quickly, opening an additional 15 stores. During this time, however, with the growth of other retail outlets such as Best Buy, the market became more competitive; with the expense of operating such large facilities, resulted in an overall lack of profitability for the entire enterprise.

Of the 17 stores, only six were ever consistently profitable; these six stores were sold to California company Fry's Electronics in 1996.[3] The others were all closed in that same year. As the buildings were so large, they could not be readily adapted to other business purposes, and buyers were so scarce that Tandy sold the empty buildings for mere pennies on the dollar.

In the mid-1990s, Incredible Universe was a sponsor of the Texas Rangers, Dallas Stars, Dallas Sidekicks and Dallas Mavericks professional sports franchises.

It's not too late for Radio Shack to rebrand itself as Dollar Shack and then get bought out by a competitor.

I don't trust the Trustees!

Is the summer of complacency coming to an end?
IMF warns of potential risks to global growth
| Reuters

Sharply higher interest rates around the world could combine with weaker growth in emerging markets to slice as much as 2 percentage points off global growth in the next five years, the International Monetary Fund said on Tuesday.

In a report assessing how individual national policies could interact to undermine the world economy, the IMF also warned the conflict between Russia and Ukraine could reverberate to the rest of the region if sanctions against Russia escalate, hitting natural gas supplies to Europe and weakening European banks.

The resulting impact could prompt further gyrations in financial markets, in contrast to the recent period of market calm, the IMF said in its 'spillovers' report.

shill linked:

1% of Chinese own one-third of national wealth

Estimate seems low

What about unreal Prices? There are a lot of those in California and New York City.

U.S. seasonally adjusted home prices fall in May: S&P/Case-Shiller
| Reuters

The S&P/Case Shiller composite index of 20 metropolitan areas declined 0.3 percent in May on a seasonally adjusted basis. A Reuters poll of economists forecast a gain of 0.2 percent.

Non-seasonally adjusted prices rose 1.1 percent in the 20 cities, compared to an expectation of a 1.5 percent rise.

JP wrote:

God help you if you're supernatural

God is supernatural. God helps those who help themselves. Corporations help themselves to our tax dollars. They are doing God's work.

Mary wrote:

How does a corporation even draft a resolution?

Corporations don't draft a resolution. Either the shareholders as a whole adopt a resolution or the board of directors adopts a resolution depending on the bylaws of the corporation. Resolutions to be considered by either of the groups are generally drafted by the board of directors, though shareholder may be permitted by the by laws to propose a resolution.

Prosperity is a danger to the political status quo. It must be stopped!

Rob Dawg quoted:

not dawned on many yet.

The Dawn of the Dead? Zombie

Some shareholders are corporations. Some shareholders are corporations that are owned by the corporations that they own share in.

burnside wrote:

Is Belgium still without a government?

Belgium has a government. They went over a year without.

Doc Holiday wrote:

Do lower yields around the globe suggest a currency war (soon)?

No. Austerity is working! Global Growth is grinding to a halt.

Is the Summer of Complacency over? Stay tuned.

Hague court to order Russia to pay $50 billion in Yukos case: report
| Reuters

The Permanent Court of Arbitration in The Hague will on Monday announce that Russia must pay $50 billion to former shareholders of the defunct oil company Yukos, Russian business daily Kommersant reported on its website, citing unnamed sources.

The newspaper said Russia was expected to appeal against the ruling. A group of shareholders in Yukos had made a $100-billion claim against Moscow for expropriating the company that was controlled by Mikhail Khodorkovsky, once Russia's richest man.

U.S. Yield Difference Falls to Least Since 2009 on Growth Views - Bloomberg

The gap between yields on Treasury 30-year bonds and five-year notes narrowed to the least since 2009 as uneven economic growth supported demand for longer maturities while Federal Reserve discussions of raising interest rates next year crimped the allure of shorter-term debt.

The 30-year yield reached the lowest level in a year amid reports showing business investment lagging behind projections and inflation remaining subdued. Policy makers are forecast to deepen cuts to the Fed’s monthly bond-purchase program on July 30 before an Aug. 1 report forecast to show the U.S. added 231,000 jobs. The Treasury is scheduled to auction $108 billion in notes next week.

“Economic growth is muted and we’re in a pretty low-inflation environment,” said Brian Edmonds, the head of interest-rates trading in New York at Cantor Fitzgerald LP, one of 22 primary dealers that trade with the Fed. “It’s positive for bonds. People anticipated much higher yields this year.”

For those of you from whom subprime lending is not risky enough:
China Property Cooling Prompts Revival of Builder Bonds - Bloomberg

China’s government is authorizing developer debt sales for the first time in five years in a bid to avoid bankruptcies as the property market cools.

Jiangsu Future Land Co. (900950), a builder of homes in eastern China, sold 2 billion yuan ($323 million) of five-year AA rated bonds last week to yield 8.9 percent. That’s less than the average 9.73 percent on trust products that many developers relied on for financing after authorities stopped approving onshore note issuance in 2009.

The China Securities Regulatory Commission reversed course in April when it granted four real estate companies the right to sell the securities, after the collapse of a builder south of Shanghai the previous month underscored financing strains. The government allowed the first mortgage-backed debt sale since 2007 last week, in the latest step to ease restrictions on the industry as new home prices drop in a record number of cities.

“The issuances are obviously an easing signal,” said Xu Hanfei, a bond analyst in Shanghai at Guotai Junan Securities Co., the nation’s third-biggest brokerage. “The CSRC will probably approve more note sales as long as developers have fund-raising demand. It would be helpful because bond costs are lower than trusts.”

sm_landlord wrote:

Being on the same island and all.

There's probably a Guantanamo/Cuba joke somewhere in there but I can't work our what it is.

Do visiting teams complain about the deafening silence when they play the BIlls?

Whiskey wrote:

a new ownership group demanding a new stadium at some point in the future.

Build a stadium and a new ownership group will come? They could make a movie based on that.

Do the BIlls fans have a fear of empty spaces?

The Unpaid Bills want a new stadium?

Now it gets personal:
Russian president Vladimir Putin may be personally sued by families of MH17 victims | Metro News

Vladimir Putin could be sued by the grieving families of those on board doomed MH17, it has been revealed.

The Russian president could face a multi-million-pound civil class action for his alleged role in supporting the pro-Moscow separatists thought to be responsible for shooting down the jet.

The case, reportedly being prepared by British lawyers, could be heard in the US. If successful, and Mr Putin fails to pay compensation, he and those closest to him could see their assets frozen.

A spokesman for London-based firm McCue & Partners said there had been talk of civil suits against Malaysia Airlines but those responsible included not only those alleged to have fired the rocket but ‘the states, individuals, or other entities’ who gave them the means to do so.

‘Our team is presently liaising and working with partners in Ukraine and the US on whether, apart from civil suits against the airline, legal action can be brought against the perpetrators on the victims’ behalf,’ he said.

GDD9000 wrote:

On crack I say.

Business as Usual for Economics is hard