Recent comments by Rajesh

Rob Dawg wrote:

If Spain and a few others are smart

If they were smart, they'd never have joined a currency union with Germany.

Those analysts at Moody's are always on the latest developments:
Moody's says Greek euro exit would change nature of euro
| Reuters

A Greek exit from the euro would not mark a return to the debt crisis of 2012, but it would create risks of contagion and change the nature of the monetary union, which was supposed to be permanent, a senior Moody's rating analyst said on Thursday.

"We don't think that a Greek exit would be inconsequential," Kathrin Muehlbronner, vice-president of sovereign risk at Moody's told Reuters in an interview in Lisbon.

Fair Economist wrote:

manufacture evidence.

Who says we don't make things in America anymore?

Yoringe wrote:

New Dehli Homeshopping Channel

Shouldn't it be the New Delhi Om Shopping Channel?

I always get this mixed up. Does an increasing Restaurant Performance Index mean more gas or less gas?

CR wrote:

Now imagine a second economy with a labor force growing 5% per year, no resource constraints, a short learning curve, and no innovation. How much should GDP grow? About 5% per year.

How much does per-capita income grow? ZERO.

Newsflash: Most Economics is hard are not experts in Economics.

Bruce in Tennessee wrote:

GDP was decreasing at the same time

GDP decreased during the first quarter but employment increased. The state unemployment rate is a big component of the the coincident index.

Bubblisimo Gerkinov wrote:

Canada will be very NDP for awhile until they too become completely corrupt.

Six weeks?

We have to shrink government until it's small enough to fit in your virgina.

JP wrote:

It's a shocker I tell you!

Unexpectedly?

Special Report: Russian fighters, caught in Ukraine, cast adrift by Moscow
| Reuters

Alexandrov, 28, says he's a Russian soldier who was captured in east Ukraine after being sent there on active duty with Russian special forces to help separatists fighting Kiev. He said he was serving on a three-year contract. "I never tore it up, I wrote no resignation request," he said. "I was carrying out my orders."

Yet Russian President Vladimir Putin, in the face of widespread evidence to the contrary, has repeatedly said there are no Russian soldiers in Ukraine – only volunteers who have gone to help the separatists of their own accord.

So Alexandrov and Yevgeny Yerofeyev, another Russian who was captured with him, find themselves pawns in the deepest confrontation between Moscow and the West since the Cold War.

They believe they should be treated as captured servicemen. But Moscow will not admit they are any such thing, or that it has sent any soldiers into Ukraine to help wrest swathes of east away from Kiev's control. To do so would undermine Moscow's claims that the separatist uprising there is a spontaneous reaction by Russian-speaking communities against Kiev.

Should you be captured, the Secretary will disavow any knowledge of you. This tape will self-destruct in twenty seconds.

Former Idealist wrote:

The answer is obvious, trash the dollar, again!

FOREX-Dollar hits 12-1/2-year peak vs yen before retreating
| Reuters

The dollar climbed to a 12-1/2-year high against the yen on Thursday before pulling back as investors bet that U.S. interest rates will rise later this year while Japan's monetary policy remains ultra-loose.

The latest data on U.S. jobless claims and pending home sales supported expectations that the Federal Reserve is moving toward raising rates by year-end, analysts said.

"The tone in U.S. economic numbers is improving. This reminds investors U.S. rates are moving up later this year and has revived the dollar's appeal since last week," said Omer Esiner, chief market analyst at Commonwealth Foreign Exchange Inc in Washington.

The greenback gave back much of its gain in U.S. afternoon trading after Japanese Finance Minister Taro Aso said the yen's recent drop had been "rough," stirring expectations that the Bank of Japan may intervene to stem further decline in the currency.

Jackdawracy wrote:

each and every one of his contemporaries

Only Jamie Dimon and Lloyd Blankfein survive from the cohort of investment bank CEOs in 2007.

Unrepentant Lehman ex-CEO Fuld says firm 'was not bankrupt'
| Reuters

Six years, seven months and 13 days after Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc filed for bankruptcy, its former chief executive, Richard Fuld Jr., is still insisting it did not go broke.

"Lehman Brothers in 2008 was not a bankrupt company," Fuld said at a conference in Manhattan on Thursday, his first such public appearance since the financial crisis for which Lehman's massive Chapter 11 filing marked a tipping point.

The company wasn't bankrupt. It just couldn't pay it's bills. Snark

Blackhalo wrote:

Why does the Economy fail to meet economic forecasts?

It's almost as if the Economy has a reality of its own outside of any economist's model.

robj wrote:

oil's contribution to deflation

Frakkers defaulting on tens of billions of dollars will easily be absorbed by the strong economy. It's contained!

Godzilla!!
Bank of Japan’s Inflation Gauge Slows to Zero as Oil Weighs - Bloomberg Business

The Bank of Japan’s main gauge of inflation slowed to zero, as cheaper oil prices counter Governor Haruhiko Kuroda’s effort to reflate the economy.

Consumer prices excluding fresh food and effects of last year’s sales-tax increase were unchanged in April from a year earlier. Including the levy, core prices rose 0.3 percent, the statistics bureau said Friday. That was more than a 0.2 percent gain forecast by economists.

I didn't know the BEA produced an Ugly GDP. Just how much Ugly did the U.S. produce last Quarter?

Yoringe wrote:

Russia dismantled there Empire quite Peacefull.

Tell the Chechens that.

Feckless Ness wrote:

We don't share a border with Putin

What about Alaska?

lawyerliz wrote:

If they started raisin rates a year ago, at one point a month it would be up to 1.2%

Wu-Xia Shadow Federal Funds Rate -
Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta

Shadow rate from -2.99 (May 2014) to -1.59 isn't enough for you?

josap wrote:

Guess you can no longer teach your kids to drink responsibly at home.

Just another tool to harass 'undesirable' homeowners. It's not like their going to raid a millionaire's party to see if some of the guests are underage and have alcohol in their systems.

Weren't we promised a 17 million annual rate last month?

Belmont wrote:

CPI around 1.8 core.

So long as you don't drive or eat, there's no deflation.

Fed's Bullard: low rate vow is 'not helpful,' GDP targeting is
| Reuters

Bullard did not lay out how a central bank would achieve a temporarily higher inflation rate, leaving that detail to future research.

One drawback to nominal GDP targeting, the paper found, is that it can hurt the cash-using segments of the population more than those households that rely on credit, exacerbating already pronounced income inequality.

Still, he said, that drawback can be addressed by targeting a long-term inflation rate and keeping inflation below that level during times of high growth.

Just a detail. Not at all important to the theory.

Fair Economist wrote:

Isn't changing your position based on data a good thing?

Each position represents a new theory, not so much new data. Bullard was the one who suggested the open-ended QE3, because he felt that QE2 was ineffective because it was a fixed amount.

This latest switch is from a position of raising interest rates to prevent the inflation rate from breaching the inflation target (only 1% to go) to now suggesting the inflation target could be more flexible. It's not clear why he's changed his policy framework. The data isn't much different than it was a couple of months ago.

arthur_dent wrote:

Not sure how it squares up with mark-to-model when the accounting gets done.

We're privatizing the profits and socializing the losses. It's all good.

James Bullard: Fed policy has been ineffective in raising interest rates. Fed should target inflation rate nominal GDP.

If policy is ineffective, you can target whatever you want and you'll still miss. He seems to be pushing price level targeting, so that a miss in one period is made up in succeeding periods.

Remember Bullard has been a hawk and then a dove and then a centrist and then a hawk and now a dove again. I wish he would make up his mind.

Again, Freddie and Fannie are selling delinquent loans at the behest of their regulator. Expect to see the delinquency rate drop faster as they do this.

josap wrote:

Now just need to figure out the date

Maybe the Kick Me has one more kick in it? It's entertained us for years now. What will we do without it?

It's too bad the EU rebuttal missed the evening news cycle in Greece.

ISIS is good business for defense contractors.

If they didn't exist we'd have to invent them.
Sort of like WMD.

Queen Elizabeth sets in motion Britain's EU referendum plan
| Reuters

A law enabling a referendum to occur by the end of 2017 will be introduced into parliament on Thursday, the day Cameron begins a European tour to try to charm sometimes reluctant counterparts into endorsing EU reform.

The wording of the referendum question will be disclosed at the same time. Unconfirmed reports are that voters will be asked if they want to stay inside the EU. That would allow the pro-EU camp to be the "Yes" campaign, helping it avoid accusations of negative campaigning, a detail likely to irk EU opponents.

Cameron told parliament he looked forward to the referendum law passing through parliament "in extra quick time."

Ask not for whom the recover tolls:
Goldman Sachs Directors Top London’s Bonus League - Bloomberg Business

Goldman Sachs Group Inc. bankers got the biggest bonuses in London this year with an average payout of 194,000 pounds ($299,000), 24,000 pounds more than second-ranking Morgan Stanley, according to Emolument.com.

Bank of America Corp. ranked third among the 15 investment banks, paying mid-level bankers, ranking below managing directors, an average bonus of 166,000 pounds, the salary benchmarking site said in a statement on Wednesday. Credit Suisse Group SA’s 135,000-pound average bonus made it the most generous European bank in sixth place, while ING Groep NV and Societe Generale SA ranked last, paying 91,000 pounds.

Yoringe wrote:

You never lost a War before

It's around here somewhere. Have we checked Jeb Bush's house?

ResistanceIsFeudal wrote:

if not for perverse incentives

Thank God for Beyond Bankerdome !

Im shocked, shocked to find that gambling is going on in here! Hu Knows
China’s richest man might have been running a massive fraud - The Washington Post

Now, the first thing to know about Hanergy is that it's really two companies. There's the privately owned parent corporation, Hanergy Group, and the publicly traded subsidiary, Hanergy Thin Film Power (HFT). So far, so normal. The curious part, though, is that almost all of HFT's sales are to its parent company at a net profit margin of 50 percent. And even more curious is that the parent company hasn't actually, well, paid for most of the solar panel equipment it's ostensibly bought from HFT. Through 2013, only 35 percent of the accounts between the two had been settled.

Why so low? The question answers itself. Hanergy must not have the cash. The problem is that the parent company has borrowed a lot of money at high interest rates, but can't make that back since its factories, which, remember, are supposed to be building solar panels out of the equipment it's gotten from HFT, are running at such low capacity that they must be losing money. So it sure seems like Hanergy Group has more debt than it can pay back, but is trying to keep people from realizing that by moving money from its left hand to its right and back again—that is, between its parent and subsidiary—to make it look like there's actually money coming in.

The question, then, isn't how this fell apart. It's how it lasted as long as it did. And the answer is HFT's stock. Think about it like this. How does a company that's got too much debt and too little profits—if any—convince people to keep lending to it? Well, it could try to hide what it owes and what it's making, but even that probably wouldn't be enough. It'd need collateral. Like, say, its subsidiary's booming stock. Although in this case, the word "booming" doesn't come close to describing what happened. Before its recent plunge, HFT's stock had risen more than 20-fold since the start of 2013 on its supposedly brisk business with its parent company. But even then, this made approximately zero sense. It wasn't just that HFT went up so much that, on paper, it was worth more than six times as much as its closest competitor. It was the way it went up—specifically, in the last 10 minutes of every day.

energyecon wrote:

come to the aid of the rebels in the 1991 uprising.

It was OK to aid the Kurds but not the Shiites.

Rob Dawg wrote:

I should be a crime to try and avoid being shot in the front.

Interfering with the trajectory of an official enforcement bullet!

Is that an uptick in the number of states with 7%+ unemployment?

Must be statistical noise. Onward and Upward!

Investor Bill Gross: Bet against Bunds 'well timed, not well executed'
| Reuters

Bill Gross, the widely followed investor, admitted in his June Investment Outlook on Wednesday that his bet against the German Bund market was well timed but not profitable.

"My famous (infamous?) ‘Short of a lifetime’ trade on the German Bund market was well timed but not necessarily well executed," Gross, who runs the Janus Global Unconstrained Fund (JUCAX.O), wrote in his latest report to clients titled "Mr. Bleu."

Gross's Janus Global Unconstrained portfolio is down 0.40 percent so far this year, underperforming its peers by 1.88 percentage points and lagging 93 percent of its non-traditional bond category, according to Morningstar data on Tuesday.

So he was completely right and still lost money? Doh!

I think the Casino is a bit much.

Fed's Lacker says letting banks fail will restore market discipline
| Reuters

Policymakers must ensure that financial industry creditors do not expect government bailouts and must be willing to let firms fail in order to restore market discipline, a top Federal Reserve official said on Tuesday.

The remarks by Jeffrey Lacker, president of the Richmond Federal Reserve Bank, repeated much of what he has previously said about what regulators need to do to make the financial system safer. Lacker, a voting member this year on the Fed's policy-setting committee, did not discuss monetary policy.

The long-term solution to ending too-big-to-fail banks is restoring market discipline "so that financial firms and their creditors have an incentive to avoid fragile funding arrangements," Lacker said in remarks prepared for delivery at the Louisiana State University Graduate School of Banking.

Let's destroy the financial system and see how much more robust our economy is.

Airlines Slide Into Bear Market on 21% Drop From 2015 Peak - Bloomberg Business

The U.S. airline industry slipped into a bear market as investors worry that carriers are losing power to raise fares even as oil prices rise.

The Bloomberg U.S. Airlines Index tumbled for a fifth straight day Tuesday, dropping 21 percent from its 2015 high on Jan. 26, a common definition of a bear market. The decline has occurred despite forecasts for a record industry profit this year and as planes fly with more than 80 percent of seats filled.

Investors are concerned expansion by some airlines is putting too many seats into the market, upsetting the balance between supply and demand at the same time that oil prices have climbed 34 percent since a 2015 low on March 17. Oil is refined into jet fuel, airline’s largest expense in recent years.

“Unfortunately given the amount of capacity creep and likely resulting lack of pricing power, we don’t feel like we have the confidence level to take our revenue estimates up concurrently with higher fuel,” Hunter Keay, a Wolfe Research analyst, wrote in a note Tuesday. “This probably explains why airline stocks are getting hammered.”

Yellen to skip key central bank conference - The Washington Post

Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen will not attend this summer's central bank meeting in Jackson Hole, Wyo., one of the highest-profile gatherings of international economists and policymakers.

The intimate, invite-only gathering in the Grand Tetons has been an important stage for Fed officials to signal shifts in policy. With the central bank in the midst of debating when to raise its benchmark interest rate for the first time in nearly a decade, the conference would have been a logical opportunity for Yellen to map out the path forward. The topic at the heavily academic conference this year is inflation, which has been running persistently -- and perplexingly -- below the Fed's goal of 2 percent.

“Chair Yellen does not plan to attend the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City’s Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium in August," a Fed spokesperson said. "However, she looks forward to participating in the symposium from time to time in future years as part of a public speaking schedule that includes a wide variety of venues and events."

Mike_PNW wrote:

I'm suddenly familiar with all of the various handbag purveyors

Do they offer financing? You can buy furniture with no interest until 2021.

Is it time for Newtons First Law of Employment?

People who are Employed stay Employed.

People who are Unemployed stay Unemployed.

In case any of you were confused:
Greek optimism about imminent deal not justified: Schaeuble
| Reuters

German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble told Reuters the Greek government's optimism about clinching a cash-for-reforms deal with its lenders in days was not backed up by negotiations and he could not rule out Greece becoming insolvent.

Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras's leftist government hopes a deal with foreign lenders is imminent, with Finance Minister Yanis Varoufakis saying on Monday that an agreement could be reached within a week.

But Schaeuble poured cold water on this idea, saying reports from the international institutions involved in negotiations with Athens suggested talks were progressing "very hesitantly".

"What I know from discussions with the three institutions does not back up the optimism arising from announcements from Athens," Schaeuble said in an interview published on Thursday.

"There is not yet any substance to the mere announcement that we are closer to an agreement. This is still within the realms of atmosphere," he added.