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looking over the above net investment table, I see Japan is $2.6T (@ ¥100/USD) in the black, while the US is $2.5T in the hole.
Maybe my 5 years of Japanese studies won't be a waste after all.
What people don't understand about Japan is that while they are an aging society, they had a tiny baby boom -- this "aging" is just the natural result of their falling birthrate.
Japan's population of age 65+ is already 75% its future peak (coming ca 2045)
The US's population of age 65+ is just getting going.
Historical and Projected Number of Medicare Beneficiaries and Number of Workers Per Beneficiary - Kaiser Slides
our aged population is still going to DOUBLE from here by 2050.
Google writes all its code in Ireland.
Graph: (Household Sector: Liabilities: Household Credit Market Debt Outstanding (CMDEBT)+Total Credit Market Debt Owed by Domestic Nonfinancial Sectors - Federal Government (FGTCMDODNS)+Debt Outstanding Domestic Nonfinancial Sectors - State and Local Gove
good thing we're running up the national credit cards right before the 80m baby boomers turn 65.
Graph: (Household Sector: Liabilities: Household Credit Market Debt Outstanding (CMDEBT)-Debt Outstanding Domestic Nonfinancial Sectors - Household, Home Mortgage Sector (HHMSDODNS))/Compensation of Employees: Wages & Salary Accruals (WASCUR) - FRED -
household debt (less mortgages) leverage
We've got $600B/yr flowing out of this economy
FRED Graph - FRED - St. Louis Fed
red is monthly consumer credit take-on
blue is monthly trade deficit
red keeps the party going, blue drains the velocity out of the economy.
As Huck would say, it's time to light out for some new territory.
LOL. Space sucks. Nothing up there but a bunch of rocks & ice. We got plenty of that here.
Well, maybe the ice will all melt away, but space colonization isn't going to solve that problem since even a hotter Earth is orders of magnitude more hospitable to human life than the best extra-terrestrial real estate you can get to.
If we've got the energy to galavant around the planets, we'll have the energy to solve our problems down here.
the idea of an old river stream on Mars is thrilling
ZZzzz for me. Water isn't some magical substance -- if it exists in such quantity here it should not be surprising that Mars once had it too.
Now, finding unambiguous evidence of life forms would be "thrilling", yes, and I assume that's the unstated reach-goal of this mission.
The technology of remote presence is cool, but we don't need to deliver these robots via rockets, we could just develop this stuff here at home, too.
One story I came across this week was the idea of long-haul self-driving vehicle, like buying an RV that drives you (& your family) 500 miles while you sleep.
THAT is cool beans. If a bit terrifying, too.
people chased land values up everywhere.
Japan was just a bit ahead of the game, 1985-1989.
one of these days we're going to figure out that we shouldn't be borrowing money to buy land.
The Dutch have been in Dutchland for all of recorded history but still owe 1.1X the GDP in mortgage debt.
how is this even possible???
What else are they going to do with their money?
I Haz a Chart:
(accumulate trade deficit)
FRED Graph - FRED - St. Louis Fed
fed spending / wages & fed spending (less benefits) / wages, since 1982
How soon we forget.
+$50B/mo is a helluva drug
Mortgage-backed securities held by the Federal Reserve: All Maturities (MBST) - FRED - St. Louis Fed
Nowhere near as flat. Agreed?
fed spending and fed spending less social benefits 2010-now on the same chart
So there should be another term for what they do.
Even a modest 100-150bps rise in mortgage rates
not in the cards. This is not the 1970s. Deflationary spin-down is the name of the game.
There's no shortage of money in the system, the problem is the proles can no longer have it.
debt, that we can have
And let us not forget the massive debts being racked up at the state and municipal levels.
Total Credit Market Debt Owed by Domestic Nonfinancial Sectors - State and Local Governments (SLGTCMDODNS) - FRED - St. Louis Fed
also flat : )
Graph: Federal Government: Current Expenditures (FGEXPND)+Household Sector: Liabilities: Household Credit Market Debt Outstanding (CMDEBT) - FRED - St. Louis Fed
truer picture of national fisc -- spending + YOY consumer debt take-on.
Why minus transfers? Is that spending somehow not really spending?
ok, without transfers:
Graph: Federal Government: Current Expenditures (FGEXPND) - FRED - St. Louis Fed
still looks flat : )
> If the 700k transfer of direct employee to contract employee in the public sector was a "drag" on GDP measures why has public spending by every measure increased?
Graph: Federal Government: Current Expenditures (FGEXPND)-Personal current transfer receipts: Government social benefits to persons (A063RC1) - FRED - St. Louis Fed
spending looks pretty flat to me, at the federal level at least.
could you dial back the (partisan) sandiness, Dawg? I'd hate to have to put you on ignore again.
ain't that a bitch
They're the ones with little money. In terms of total dollars, they don't matter to the "economy."
they pay their rent. Which is all the 5% parasite class requires.
How about some artificial suppression of supply?. Not to worry - the banks can handle that. Who's buying investment property again?
that bulk sales to long-term investors would serve to protect asset value (existing mortgages) wasn't something I had figured out.
the higher the landlords jack up rents the more pressure on home prices, too.
what an evil country we live in
bills that run around $100 a month
$80/year here. Lurv me the virgin mobile $20/quarter pre-pay thing.
My 3rd gen IPod touch is still good enough, even if it is stuck on iOS 5 for some reason.
If Apple ships a 8" tablet I might consider it, since 10" is getting into Macbook Air territory IME (and I'll be buying the MBA when it goes retina I think)
Fuck the investors, hope they all go tits up
alas, with Bennie running the inkjet that may only happen if we go over the fiscal falls next year.
here's hoping, gulp
"Blackstone to buy $1 billion worth of Tampa Bay homes for rentals - Tampa Bay Times "
ain't that a bitch.
I can only hope we run over the fiscal cliff like Thelma and Louise and my mantra -- All Taxes Come Out of Rents -- holds.
i don't actually think a Romney win would result in higher taxes on the middle class, I think the Rs will just cut everything across the board like they did 2001-2003 -- Reagan proved deficits don't matter doncha know.
But an Obama win -- gridlock city unless the Ds retake the House -- maybe 20% chance now, dunno.
But the economic injustice of rich bastards buying up housing is just soul-killing to me. That's not capitalism!
"So, explain to me how the GSEs lost money if they were completely blameless."
a falling tide screws all boats.
basically so much of our economy 2002-2007 was a Potemkin one, floated on $7T of new mortgage debt.
The GSEs were peripheral players in this run-up -- they had some exposure thanks to CFC giving them the 80% piece while finding some sucker for the 20-25% piece.
The real cause of the price run-up was the suicide lending going on, and the GSEs WERE NOT doing suicide lending during this period.
Pay cash for the dwelling, or rent. Period. Eliminate mortgages, mortgage bankers, MBS and realtors that pump the market.
Eliminate the landlords -- the rent -- from that picture you have a good idea!
This could be done by taxing SFH rents at some high %.
And I Was There . . .
Comment by Troy from thread 'BofA: Attitudes Changing Towards Default'
somebody had to do it
I'm going to unplug the internet now. See you guys on the flipside, whenever that will be.
QE has brought to Japan
Japan is 10% better off now than it was in 1990, even with all the government debt.
shows their net capital assets to have doubled in yen terms since 1996.
I'd rather have Japan's problems than ours.
the hoops the fundies have to jump through voting for a Mormon (and Roman Catholic for that matter) are entertaining, but in the end they will so the Romneys' kooky religion is neither here nor there.
Fundies have basically destroyed my country. Stunning, really, how much damage they've already done.
How much will our wars cost? Report says $4 trillion | The Lookout - Yahoo! News
that's what happens when critical thinking skills get corrupted. American Religious Fundamental Conservatism is something right out of Asimov's Foundation series.
So much stupidity, and so many votes on election day.
My primary driver is 11.25 years & 90,000 now. Well, the engine is only 3.5 (long story) & 12,000.
it looks the pace of recovery should pickup next year.
Two words: Fiscal Cliff
now, if Romney wins, all bets are off. But if Obama is returned to deal with the Boehner/Cantor House, I don't see how this is going to evolve other than . . . badly.
If just the Senate flips, then this will be 75% shift against Obama and will push policy more in the Republican direction, whatever the hell that is going to be.
^ age of current fleet getting up there, too
Average age of US auto fleet at record 11.1 years (Chemicals & The Economy)
"I never doubt the existence of God" -- bizarre construction; I "never doubt" the existence of lots of bullshit asserted entities. Ain't nobody got time for that.
I think I broke their spectrum to the left. Knowing this means I don't stamp my feet like some online leftists about how allegedly Democrat politicians don't break my way on my issues. People within the std dev of policy prefs determine the policy, especially the people in the major in-play states -- FL, VA, PA, OH, MI, WI . . .
Will our elected officials take us over the Fiscal Cliff due to an inability to sacrifice sacred cows or will there be a compromise?
fiscal cliff IS the compromise.
lose the Bush tax cuts. That's OK because all they did was double our national debt.
Cut defense $50B/yr. It's a start on the $400B/yr that Bush tacked on to our defense burden.
marginal cuts in some social spending. Window dressing really.
And people tend to notice a $16 trillion debt burden.
LOL. Just like the Japanese noticed their 100% of GDP burden?
General government gross debt for Japan (GGGDTAJPA188N) - FRED - St. Louis Fed
Now, what is being borrowed now should have been taxed (or tariffed) instead, but the national debate is still pretty far from that.
Voting for a Mormon
that's already been cog-dissed away safely. I know this firsthand.
The Medicare changes would be a bummer -- the Ryan plan actually boofs me directly by extending my eligibility to age 67.
The voucher thing is something of a joke, too, and a primary reason to GTFO while I can.
Other than new mlitary adventures ... agree.
well if they're drafting 48 year olds into a volkssturm, I'll know we be fucked.
The odd thing is that a Romney win will not affect much at all -- I'm just your typical white american heterosex male. At any rate I don't plan on being in this country past 2015, and if I am it will be a full existence.
435 HUBBARD GULCH Rd, San Lorenzo Valley, CA 95005 | MLS# 81148014 | Redfin
something iike that is exactly my speed.
I kinda want Romney to win so that we can see the conservatives take one more bite at that apple. This next one promises to be bigger than all the previous moves put together.
They're obviously not as brilliant as you.
Or any heterodox peeps like Keen and Hudson.
I suspect the actual reason is more complex than that, since how can you miss a fucking $8T surge in household debt!
St. Louis Fed: Series: CMDEBT, Household Sector: Liabilites: Household Credit Market Debt Outstanding
states in play also states implementing the voter ID requirement
2012 Summary of Voting Law Changes | Brennan Center for Justice
I don't recall dubya endlessly complaining about the poor hand he got dealt, years into his presidency.
LOL. Bush made his own bed 2001-2005, clown.
And got a helluva tailwind from the Fed, TWICE.
Graph: Effective Federal Funds Rate (FEDFUNDS) - FRED - St. Louis Fed
The Bush Boom, such as it was, was floated on $7T of consumer debt take-on:
Graph: Household Sector: Liabilities: Household Credit Market Debt Outstanding (CMDEBT) - FRED - St. Louis Fed
Consumer debt take-on was an unprecedented 20% of wages!
Graph: 4*Household Sector: Liabilities: Household Credit Market Debt Outstanding (CMDEBT)/Compensation of Employees, Received: Wage and Salary Disbursements (A576RC1) - FRED - St. Louis Fed
Note how that mother of all stimulus programs went away in 2008 and is still gone.
The funny thing is even Krugman and DeLong don't really get this, or don't talk about it at least.
tackle the trade balance from the imports side of the ledger
"The paper’s sources added that once insurance and benefits are included, actual monthly employment costs are as high as 2,700-2,800 yuan ($440)."
Shenzhen wage hike causes supply chain jitters • The Register
$440 per month.
Minimum wage in the US is $1250.
Pull the other one, bearly.
Question: What could fedgov do that would result in 300,000 new jobs a month?
YouTube - Bomb Iran (Paul Shanklin)