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Who needs jobs and retail sales when the stock market just keeps going up?
Loose a nickle on every part, but make it up in volume.
Works every time......until it doesn't.
CR, why waste your time on threads for the next few days. Just pen something about the weather, and the commentariat will take it from there.
Or just mention opening car doors into traffic. That should be good for 3 or 4 threads.
Bank of Japan intervention?
Bank of Japan intervention?
It looks like BOJ is drawing the line in the sand at 81.00. and this time they REALLY, REALLY mean it.....seriously, really.......maybe untill tomorrow.
Yes, me included, and get me some popcorn and a beer while you're up.
Or task displacement where a supplier tries to make the customer due tasks (and take on the liability for performing) tasks once handled by the supplier.
I think you have it backwards. In my experience, the customer tries to push as many tasks as possible back onto the supplier.
Comrade Kristina wrote:
I still say Comrade DazedandConfused has one of the best handles on here.
Thanks Comrade Kristina, but it's AMUSED, not Confused
I can't stand to watch local, national, or Faux News, because if they cocked up the WMDs, they'll cock up everything. It's like watching Saturday Night Live narrated by bumpkins.
I see the same thing happening with anything regarding events in Mexico. It's amazing and scary to me, just how easily manipulated people are in the US. The sad thing is, that even intelligent, educated people accept what is being fed to them by the media, at face value, with no critical analysis.
Has there ever been any people in history that had more wealth and valued education less than today's México?
I've been an expat in Mexico for 16 years. I've had my children in both private schools and in public schools in Mexico. I've found that most Mexicans are far more dedicated to the education of their children than what I've seen in the US. The level of both teacher and parent involvement is much higher than in the US. The quality of education is equivalent or superior to what I saw when my oldest children were in US schools. In fact, the disgraceful situation in the California schools where my 2 eldest were attending was a leading factor in my decision to leave the US.
I really have no idea where Comrade Greenchutes gets his information to draw his conclusion.
Do mayors in Mexico play an important part in the drug war there?
Mayors control the municipal police forces in Mexico. When mayors are killed, it is usually either to send a message to the police to back off, or because the mayor would not play along with the narcos.
OT: get out yer Nikki 8k hats, again.
If you don't have one yet, be sure to buy it with your Yen instead of worthless $USD. USDJPY cliff diving tonight, down to 83.40.
Unhappy American wrote:
There was some seriously incorrect/misleading information posted in response to my posts. Espcially about I9s, so if anyone is interested I'll be happy to explain the actual real-world hiring process. If no one is interested ... great, saves me time I didn't want to spend when I jumped into the conversation.
I have 2 BILs that are undocumented workers in LA. Basically the process as you described it is the same as what they have explained to me; fake ID, fake SSN card, get hired, work until confronted by the employer, then quit and find another job.
FWIW, I think you were unfairly attacked the other evening. Please keep posting.
IT MUST BE EMPHASIZED THAT DUE TO THE OVER-ABUNDANCE OF TROPICAL MOISTURE...ISOLATED RAINFALL TOTALS OF UP TO 12 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE
I'm sitting here in McAllen Texas (100 miles inland from Brownsville) right now. Sky is grey and the wind is coming up stronger out of the north. Looks like it may be a very wet night.
Bloomberg.com has highlighted Waste and Scrap shipments as the rail commodity most closely correlated with the U.S. economy (GDP)
Looking at the Railfax website, it looks like scrap shipments are running under 2009.
Railfax Report - North American Rail Freight Traffic Carloading Report
What is this saying about Q3, Q4 GDP?
noob goldberg wrote:
I'll derail the thread by posting pictures of stuck farm equipment. A few months ago I posted some images of very wet fields, and here is what happens when a farmer gets his sprayer stuck in a field that is still very wet.
Picture #8 and #9 are pretty funny. How many pieces of equipment did they eventually get stuck trying to pull out other equipment?
bANK fAILURE wrote:
now that CR is gone, I will say that I am not a fan of the auto-load for certain advertising on his homepage. I find it really irritating.
FireFox with Ad Blocker Plus will take care of that problem.
The two banks that Rabobank acquired should fit well with their current banking structure. I have my chequing account with Rabobank. Their philosophy seems to be to put bank branches in every hick, one-horse town in California.
Isn't Hormel specialty food an oxymoron?
When I was younger, I learned that you could survive on Dinty Moore Beef Stew (a Hormel product) and beer for at least 3 months.
Well, that one deserves a double shot of tequila! 1 tequila, 2 tequila, 3 tequila uh oh...
It's August, doesn't the Port already have a very good idea of what shipping traffic to expect over the next two months?
Yes, I believe the port knows what ships are scheduled to come. What they don't know is how many TEUs will be loaded on the ships. Container ships operate kind of like a bus. They have regular schedules, but the number of passengers getting on the bus can vary.
Aren't we going t say a prayer? It was a little bank, and died young.
It wasn't that young. From their About-Us statement:
Palos Bank and Trust is an independent community bank proudly seeking to be the premier provider of financial services to communities in the Chicagoland southwest suburban market. Formed in 1956 by the Paetow family, Palos Bank has remained family-owned since inception, and is now run by Gregory J. Paetow, president. Palos Bank strives to serve the community’s complete financial service needs, from lending and deposits to trust services, brokerage and insurance services through any of our five locations
It was old and deserved to die.
for natural resources. check out where the US gets all the oil.
Last time I looked, Canada was the largest supplier of imported oil. Maybe going to war with Canada will be the solution. And while they're at it they can go to war with Mexico as well.
Whitacre, 68, will be replaced by GM board member Daniel Akerson, the managing director and head of global buyout for The Carlyle Group, a private equity firm.
When the bean counters take over, it's always the end of the company.
Comrade Janošik wrote:
Market will open soon, place your bets ladies and gentlemen.
The public is dumb, but not THAT dumb.
I don't know. One thing I have learned lately is to NEVER underestimate the stupidity of the 'Mercun public.
I thought there might be a relationship between coal used to generate electricity for air conditioning during this hot Summer and rail traffic. There still might be, but it's not obvious to me.....
If you want to look at how much coal is used month by month for power generation, then take a look at this:
Monthly Energy Review
It's an Excel file with the month usages by sector. The one year average for last year is around 78 million tons per month, and coal stocks fluctuate between 170 and 200 million tons. That says that coal fired plants tend to have between 2 and 2.5 months of supply onhand. So, it may be difficult to see short term demand fluctuations like you are looking for.
OT: WHY O WHY can't they teach people how to correctly format numbers in Excel spreadsheets??? If any of my reports ever sends me a spreadsheat like the crap in the link above from DOE, I just send it back to them with a nasty comment and I don't even bother to look at it.
Very interesting and consistent
The total tells the anemic tale.
Very interesting and consistent
The total tells the anemic tale.
The other part of the equation is coal stocks
It looks to me like coal stocks at power plants built up last year, so I would expect them to be buying less coal this year to burn off the stocks a little. As such, I don't read too much into declining coal shipments at this point. YMMV
Any correlation between rail traffic and coal for electric power plants? Do we have (or can we get) the numbers for kW*hours of electricity usage?
Here you go:
Electric Power Monthly - Table 1.1. Net Generation by Energy Source
What's the coal car baseline?
Look at the linked PDF in CR's post. It's very detailed and breaks out all of the comodities.
sneering nihilist wrote:
The best? more like the easiest for a weakened state. the best solution would be to legalize it like we did beer
Actually, there is serious discussion about doing that. One of the smaller political parties made it one of the foundations of their campaign. Now, there is discussion in the Camera de Deputados to legalize marijuana. It'll be interesting to see how that plays out.
Wouldn't that strategy lead to a significant diplomatic problem re the US? I'm not saying it couldn't be a viable strategy for Mexico, but the pressure from Washington against this would be immense. Of course, it's hypocritical for the US to pressure Mexico when we are not really doing much about the demand problem in our own country.
That really is what I am seeing. Many people are questioning why the government is doing the dirty work for the US. It's like the saying that they have here: "Mexico, tan lejos de Dios y tan cerca de Estados Unidos". (Mexico, so far from God and so close to the United States). It will be interesting to see the presidential election in 2012. I think the people are going to send the PAN packing and put the PRI back in power to a large extent because of this.
don't forget that life goes on in failed states too
Agreed, but Mexico is not like Somalia (yet!).
BTW, for many 'Mercuns, their only image of Mexico is what they have seen in the tourist areas of Tijuana or Juarez. The interior of Mexico is really quite different from the border areas.
People will become fed up with it and just want it to stop. The State will oblige.
People here are tired of it, but what I see is that many people blame the government for the problem. Personally, and talking to friends, many people felt that life was better before Calderon decided to call the Army out of it's barracks to fight the cartels. At least when the cartels can ship drugs to the US, they stay busy and don't cause other problems. Also, people have seen that you can kill as many of them as you want. There will always be more to take their place. The best solution is to back off, let the cartels work out their differences, and then let them each take a portion of the border to control.
sneering nihilist- My point is that I see every day here people shooting thier mouths off about Mexico being a "failed state" with no real background or true experience living in the country. I've been an expat in Mexico for 16 years, living and breathing the country. Yes, the problem with the cartels exists, but the country is not coming to a halt because of it. People go on with their lives, business goes on, and life goes on.
I guess that as other commenters here have mentioned, when you see how US news is presented on something that you are intimately involved in, it is suprising to see how it is spun to a particular view point. Even more suprising to me is how a group of commenters like those here on HCN can pick apart economic/financial news to the smallest detail. However many of this same group will accept the same news spin regarding the situation in Mexico at face value, and then reach the mistaken conclusion that Mexico is a failed state.
not good. i heard recently that cartels are taking over the role of the state in some regions, imposing taxes and such. mexico closing in on failed state status imo.
You guys are watching way too much 'Mercun television news. Yes there are problems with the drug cartels, but Mexico is no where near being a failed state. Come-on people, apply a little critical thinking to what you see on the boob-tube.
I,ve lived in Juarez and I live in Monterrey now. The state apparatus is still functioning as well as it ever has. The country just had an election last month, that functioned, and is as credible as any election in the US. The problems with the drug cartels are not much different than the gangs that control many inner city US cities. Yet, nobody seems to be calling LA or Chicago a "failed state" for the same reasons.
As I see it, the problems with the drug trafficers here is that the government is trying to stop them, just to keep the US happy. It's the US exporting its failed war-on-drugs to other countries.
Shall we get to know our first guest of honour?
Ravenswood Bank opened in 1996 to fill a niche that the large banks were not servicing — efficiently providing personalized financial services to small business owners, investors and consumers.
For approximately twelve years, Ravenswood Bank has been the premier real estate lender in the Chicago metropolitan area. We have helped transform neighborhoods in the city and suburbs through the specialized construction, rehabilitation and term loan products that we offer to builders and investors. Ravenswood Bank also provides SBA and conventional loans to small and medium-size businesses, together with an array of deposit products that meet their business financial needs.
Ahh... "the premier real estate lender".....it sounds like it was a circle jerk of developers getting loans and putting the proceeds back in the same bank. Good-bye
so around this time next year we'll be reading about the IMF paying for classroom repairs in Buttscratch, Illinois? This country really is creeping closer to 3rd World Status!
In the part of the third world where I live, it's usually the parents of the students that end up paying for the classroom repairs.
But,....but, the stock market is up, so everything must be okay. Right?
The best strategy is to buy anything you think you might need the first year or two, and then hunker down.
From and end consumer standpoint it would make sense. From a business standpoint, it wouldn't make any difference. You collect VAT from your customers. Then you pay VAT either to your suppliers with each purchase, or you pay the difference between what you collected from your customers and what you paid to your suppliers, to the government.
So, if you had a hoard of inventory with $0 VAT paid on it, you would simply send all of your collected VAT to the government. Now, if you want to game the system for a while, you could sell your hoard for cash, collect VAT on it and pocket the VAT money. Just don't leave any sort of a paper trail.
In the UK the VAT began at 10% in 1973. It's probably a fluke that it has doubled since.
Comrade Nova's point is well taken. The real risk with VAT is that it is one, simple easy lever for the politicos to pull. Need more tax revenue?....Just hike the IVA percentage, easy, peasy.....
It may start out supposedly replacing a revenue stream, under the guise of reduced evasion. But over time, it WILL come to be seen as an easy way for politicians to increase tax revenue.
No, you expense the full cost (including VAT) of the inventory
VAT is not a part of COGS. The only way to avoid paying VAT to your supplier is to have a black market supply chain that's in on the game.
Sure there is:
But, YOU paid VAT at each of these steps when you paid your suppliers/landlord. So, the government looses out on the tax on your added value only.
...reported yesterday that rail traffic via Mexico crashed in the last couple of weeks.
Something to bear in mind is that Tropical Storm Alex washed out several of the major rail lines, particularly the one that runs from Saltillo, through Monterrey, and up to the border. A lot of automobile production moves on that line. So the drop may be more related to other causes, not just an economic slowdown.
How do you game VAT?
Actually, that is about the only way. And for it to work, the entire supply chain has to be black market, something like:
smuggled imports---> black market distribution ----> cash only local markets
I see a lot of it in Mexico when I go to the mercadito.
that seems to be working pretty well in Mexico - no surviving large cash businesses...
Actually for large cash businesses, like a department store, there is the incentive to capture all of the cash receipts, since within those receipts are also the funds to pay the IVA to your suppliers, as well as what you forward to the government.
So, you're right, the only place you will see large scale cash business is on a very small scale like a local market with mom-and-pop operations. And little by little, the government is tightening up the screws on them as well.
Point is, how do you game VAT
If the system is well designed. it is actually quite difficult to game. About the only way to do it is with cash transactions.
Here in Mexico, there is a 16% VAT (known as IVA en español). Under a VAT system, your invoices become your fiscal documents, rather than your cheques. So your invoices are tightly controlled. Also, the government requires you to report your top 200 customers and suppliers every year. Then they do a cross-check against their reported amounts.
Since the invoice is the only document you can use to back-up a deductable expense, there is a strong incentive to require an invoice from your suppliers rather than doing a cash (under the table) transaction, as non-deductable expenses are taxed at 34%.
Well, I can't seem to get the sound card working on my Ubuntu box, so anyone have any suggestions. Or, does anyone know how to get iptables working so I can hook up my Windoz laptop to my Linux box?
Somehow Merle Hazard just doesn't seem the same with only video but no sound.
English Lit. (/ducks/waits for laughter or murmurs of pity). Eh, I have no apologies: I find my work meaningful, I inspire people and give them something to think about in the long march toward the grave, and I still enjoy doing what I do, even after 35 years.
I got an engineering degree from UCSD, but I really appreciate the fact that they forced me to take a lot of humanities classes. In the long run, the ability to read, analyze, and clearly articulate a point of view has served me far more than the technical training that I received. I salute you for having done it for 35 years. Your life's work has probably helped many a person like myself.
Merikaquiladoras............good one JD.
Well it's off to my sweatshop for me. Adios doomers.
I'm seeing the same thing here in the maquiladora industry in northern Mexico. Sales are better than last year, hired a few people earlier this year, but no plans to hire any more.
Part of it seems to be survivor bias, and part of it seems to be import substitution vs. China.