broward wrote:

WOW
you guys weren't kidding about the aisles at walmart

What's going on at Wally World?
.
Edit: Holy Shznat! I've got people on my ignore list that I don't ever recall ignoring. I guess I need to check that list more often. Puzzled

FFDIC was all over this in the comments here more than a year ago.

from last thread... not the hairy stuff, but anything that can be put into a template and modified as needed.

“At the height of the economic boom, to take an aggressive supervisory approach and tell people to stop lending is hard to do.”
But isn't that the regulator's job?

Regulators will only do what they are allowed to do. They can be undermined by Congress or by the Administration. Neither wanted this bubble to lose air. They still don't.

It would have been nice if FFDIC had submitted something formal to CR but, if he had, both of them would probably have been visited in the middle of the night by people wearing ninja suits.

They would have been renditioned somewhere.

mp, definitely. He was a great resource. I'd really like to understand why no further action was taken? Was this coming down from the top of the regulators (like Greenspan)? Or were all the examiners - each on their own - deciding not to take aggressive action? I suspect there was pressure from above ... and names should be named.

best to all

“At the height of the economic boom, to take an aggressive supervisory approach and tell people to stop lending is hard to do.”

So much for being an adult. What a wuss.

“At the height of the economic boom, to take an aggressive supervisory approach and tell people to stop lending is hard to do.”

An economic boom based on loose credit does run counter to an aggressive supervisory approach. I wonder if he is admitting implicitly that the "boom" really wasn't a boom. Just privatizing and capitalizing on social structures and securities.

patientrenter wrote:

They still don't.

Wonder how are those FHA loan docs are looking?

"But isn't that the regulator's job?"

Not if they want to keep it...

"Born was appointed to the CFTC on April 15, 1994 by President Bill Clinton. Born and her team at the CFTC conducted a financial analysis which led them to anticipate a serious financial crisis due to growth in the trade of unregulated derivatives. When Born became chair of the CFTC, she sought comments on the regulation of derivatives,[6] a first step in the process of writing comprehensive regulations. Born was particularly concerned about swaps, financial instruments that are traded over the counter on the dark market, and thus have no transparency except to the two counter-parties. Regulation was strenuously opposed by Federal Reserve chairman Alan Greenspan, Treasury Secretaries Robert Rubin and Lawrence Summers.[7] On May 7, 1998, former SEC Chairman Arthur Levitt joined Rubin and Greenspan in objecting to the issuance of the CFTC’s concept release. Their response dismissed Born's concerns off hand and focused on the possibility that discussing the regulation of swaps and other OTC derivative instruments would increase legal uncertainty of such instruments, potentially creating turmoil in the markets, and reducing the value of the instruments. Further concerns voiced were that the imposition of new regulatory costs would stifle innovation and push transactions offshore.[8]

An economic and financial crisis affected US and world markets in 2008. As it gained momentum, newspapers began reporting on some of its possible causes, including the suppression of Born's recommendations and the adversarial relationship Greenspan, Rubin and Levitt had with Born,[3][7] The disagreement has been described not only as a classic Washington turf war,[citation needed] but also as a war of ideologies as Greenspan and highly placed Clinton administration officials believed that in large measure, the capital markets could be trusted to regulate themselves.[9]"

Brooksley Born - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

"In 2005, Levitt was named a special advisor to the American International Group's board of directors and the board's nominating and corporate governance committee following the resignation of CEO and Chairman Maurice "Hank" Greenberg, who left after an investigation into the firm's accounting practices by New York Attorney General Eliot Spitzer."

Arthur Levitt - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

CR, it's my recollection that the word came directly from the Bushmaster.

IIRC, that's what FFDIC said.

This is where full disclosure of who made the decisions to ignore the examiner reports needs to come in. And shareholder lawsuits.

For folks who use a credit union, you're automatically a shareholder generally. That would give you more ability to raise a stink about lending practices.

homedad43 wrote:

So much for being an adult. What a wuss.

Makes you wonder what kind of parent he is:

At the height of the child temper-tantrum, to take an aggressive supervisory approach and tell the child to stop acting up is hard to do.”

I suspect that one of the people sending the message to not do anything was on that pic showing the regulators with the oversized scissors cutting the ribbon on regulation.

Take your pick.

I believe it was Bush who was president. I believe it was Bush who was rabidly anti-regulation. The math to figure out ultimate responsbility is easy.

Names should be named - no matter how high up the chain. We owe this to future generations.

I'd like to hear the field examiners testify (they apparently did a fine job early). How can we have any confidence in regulation going forward if we don't understand how this breakdown happened.

best to all

"At bank after bank, the examiners are discovering that state and federal regulators knew lenders were engaging in hazardous business practices but failed to act until it was too late"


they FAILED to act? i dont think so

they chose not to act or were "induced" not to act

there was no "failure " here

fraud and corruption pure and simple...and yes we need a pecora commision

Ferdinand Pecora - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Doofus wrote:

The math to figure out ultimate responsbility is easy.

So sayeth the Doofus.
.
Remember that a lot of these bad housing/credit policies were enacted before Dubya. You will find yourself looking at Clinton and further to find the front of this train.

Hindsight is 20/20, so from this point forward "mark to make believe" will be policy.

homedad43 wrote:

Take your pick.

Sounds like Phogress to me. Wink

It was not just Bush, but any number of neocon republicans who inhabited the executive branch.

I used to listen to Limbaugh years ago and recall when he was shilling (no offense, Shill) for the Glass-Steagal repeal saying that things were so much different now. Thought at that time that change was largely technological in nature but didn't see how human nature had changed to any extent.

yagij, that may be - but we are talking the failure of regulation here. And the Inspector General reports keep pointing to 2002 as a key year. That was when the examiners started seeing problems (sometimes early 2003).

best wishes

How can we have any confidence in regulation going forward if we don't understand how this breakdown happened.

I don't expect any of it to ever see the light of day.

Too many people are culpable.

digalert wrote:

Hindsight is 20/20, so from this point forward "mark to make believe" will be policy.

That actually makes sense given the last 8 months Shock

concur with mp.

This one is clearly the bastard stepchild that no one wants or will claim. Looks like any number of possible parents...

So between my wife and I, we expect to have a new Pontiac (if they still make 'em) in the driveway next week.

Think that a GM dealer would give me a taxpayer pricebreak?

Does the FOIA apply to the FDIC? I guess they could stall quite awhile, like the Fed. Time for a strongly worded message to my congressfolks.

homedad43 wrote:

This one is clearly the bastard stepchild that no one wants or will claim. Looks like any number of possible parents...

Bill Hicks once said:

I don't remember your daddy's name, but he was a trucker so your name will be Trucker, Jr. Your daddy was the pizza delivery guy so your name was Pizza Delivery, Jr. Your daddy was the exterminator so your name was Exterminator, Jr. Your name was Will-Work-For-Food, Jr.

I'm not as concerned about the start of the mess, but the fact that they had FIVE YEARS to stop/slow down the housing disaster, and surely they were told by the Bush Executives not to mess up the gravy train is a testament to just how deleterious that man was to the economy.

homedad43 wrote:

we expect to have a new Pontiac

Um, why?

homedad43 wrote:

we expect to have a new Pontiac (if they still make 'em)...

It don't matter. Gov't Motors is a taint on all their brands!

Why would you want a Pontiac?

For that matter, why would you want a GM product?

Why would you want an American vehicle?

Thinking about it, perhaps the best way to figure out who's responsible would be to obtain the visitor rosters of key legislators and then cross-reference against financial industry lobbyists/executives.

"I'd like to hear the field examiners testify (they apparently did a fine job early)."

I would too. And get prosecutions for everyone involved. But that's all going after the sneak thiefs. What about the stealing in plain sight going on now with 3.5% down FHA loans, and continuing madness at FNM and FRE, or the Fed's $1.2 trillion of MBS purchases? That $1.2 trillion could have been spent on WPA-like programs, and jump-starting demand and businesses that make the most of what Americans can do for each other, not pissed away on keeping home prices too high.

epic fail selling the stadium in Pontiac MI

Why would I want a Pontiac/GM?

Quoting Sally after missing Halloween: "All I want is what's coming to me. All I want is my fair share."

Hey, for the tax money, I want my effin' car.

mp wrote:

Too many people are culpable.

To many well connected people have dirty hands.

Bush picked folks as top regulators that did not believe in regulation. They were Ann Randian folks following Greenspan, where altruism is evil and the only thing is to be for yourself only. They all believed in Homo Economicus, the totally rational economic being. Such a being never exists as humans are animals and we go for the bandwagon effect (like lemmings), make decisions based upon small samples, with a bias to the first observation indicating what is to happen i.e. the whole area of behavioral economics. Bush and his team believed in the myth of homo economics and conducted themselves accordingly.

Another point is that memories were far to short "housing prices won't go down on a nationwide basis" when they did in the 1930s. It seems that bankers need to get spanked every so often and then they behave until a new generation of bright young things who did not experience the troubles comes along and knows better than the voice of experience. Perhaps the current crisis will give us 15 to 20 years until a new ignorant generation comes up in banking.

The criminality underlying the housing bubble and everything since goes right to the top -- there's no way these people come to justice.

How do you indict Treasury Secretaries, Fed Chiefs, etc.???

TJ and The Bear wrote:

How do you indict Treasury Secretaries, Fed Chiefs, etc.???

With torches and pitchforks.

The criminality underlying the housing bubble and everything since goes right to the top -- there's no way these people come to justice.

And that's just one of the reasons I no longer believe in "justice."

Not in this life.

Hell, the S&L debacle was just a trial run for this one.

name names?

how about this. regulators are destined to fail so long as they and especially their masters remain captured.

I don't need a stinkin commission to get to the truth. Regulation ALWAYS fails for the same reason in the U.S. Regulatory capture.

I know the commentariat believes in strong regulation. I would argue that every time we set up a regulatory body we guarantee a new hornet's nest of problems. No regulation is bad. Regulation that is not enforced is much, much worse.

TJ and The Bear wrote:

How do you indict Treasury Secretaries, Fed Chiefs, etc.???

I believe John Law died a pauper so it does happen. It just takes a revolution and overthrow to make it more... pronounced.

The criminals are all still in place, rooking the public as usual. There's only way I can think of to root them out.

montas ankle wrote:

No regulation is bad. Regulation that is not enforced is much, much worse.

Actually, I cannot imagine how having no regulation of the financial sector would've been worse than where we were last Fall. I would imagine the politicos response would have been more apt.

I would argue that every time we set up a regulatory body we guarantee a new hornet's nest of problems.

That's why I suggest that some future generation of regulators be garbed in black uniforms and equipped with Walther PPKs.

"Albert Fall was found guilty of bribery in 1929, fined $100,000 and sentenced to one year in prison, making him the first Presidential cabinet member to go to prison for his actions in office"

As an ode to nova: Even superstars start small:

YouTube - Jimmy Page 1957

Regulation is cumbersome.
Lack of regulation, or failure to enforce regulation, is worse.

Regulators who turn off the supply of air for the housing bubble get a letter they cannot ignore, from the people who determine their budget.

"Back when the housing mania was taking off, Massachusetts Congressman Barney Frank famously said he wanted Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to "roll the dice" in the name of affordable housing. That didn't turn out so well, but Mr. Frank has since only accumulated more power. And now he is returning to the scene of the calamity -- with your money. He and New York Representative Anthony Weiner have sent a letter to the heads of Fannie and Freddie exhorting them to lower lending standards for condo buyers."

FDIC insurance with competent regulation is one thing - it is entirely different when the regulators are weak and willing to overlook things.

When the regulators don't act, the loss-making activity (poor investments, incompetence, or fraud) continues.

The hit to the FDIC fund likely increase and time passes without a shutdown.

So good banks are asked to not only pay out for failed banks, the are asked to pay out more than necessary.

"He and New York Representative Anthony Weiner have sent a letter to the heads of Fannie and Freddie exhorting them to lower lending standards for condo buyers."

All of this is indicative of the extreme moral hazard that is developing.

We're in danger of them flushing the whole thing down the shitter.

And if you think I'm screaming that the sky is falling, you're right.

It is. Look at the Fed's damned balance sheet.

duh! it is indicative of our whole "pay as you go" government!

mp wrote:

All of this is indicative of the extreme moral hazard that is developing.

I'd be happy if the penalty for applying pressure to a regulator to ease standards was administered by that Walther you mentioned. And, to keep people from thinking it's politically partisan, apply the penalty to one Republican and Democrat pair at a time, the one from each side who is applying the most powerful pressure.

Congress and the Fed will never, ever admit their role in this mess. Why should they? If they admit their fault, they're out of a job.

If they don't admit a thing - J6P won't care.

A general thought:

One of the reasons that the regulatory failure was so devastating was that the corruption happened on a national basis.
it seems to me that leaving the laws, regulation, etc. to the states could have contained the problem by preventing wholesale regulatory capture. At this point, it might be sensible to consider getting the Federal Government completely out of the mortgage and banking business.

Let the states blow themselves up one at a time if they so choose, but at least the damage would be better contained when regulatory failure happens. And it will happen again. I am convinced that it will because I am convinced that the problem cannot be fixed at the federal level. And with people like Barney Frank still in untouchable positions of power, the reason that it cannot be fixed, cannot be fixed.

Amazing how at first, laws are needed to restrain the chaos and violence, but in the end chaos and violence is needed to restrain the law.

Well, you know, how many trillions does it take?

How many generations of Americans have to be screwed out of their future before they decide it needs to be stopped?

CR,
It doesn't help that the Fourth Estate betrayed its responsibility either, Reuters.com
ditto for academics who vociferously provided the argument that a bank would not commit such acts because it would be detrimental to their reputations, which I believe became official policy
but if you want to make an example of a regulator, how about the OTS Chairman who approved IndyMac filing a fraudulent quarterly report to shareholders, and allowing them to backdatedly restate their books I believe 4 days later for no good reason. IndyMac was of course shut down before the end of another quarter
OTS Says IndyMac, 4 Thrifts Allowed to Restate Capital Levels - Bloomberg.com
http://www.ustreas.gov/inspector-general/audit-reports/2009/oig09037.pdf
http://uk.reuters.com/article/idUKN3040214020090131
Audit: OTS knew bank data skewed - TheHill.com
There were 4 other institutions that did the same, but haven't been named to the public

Yankee wrote:

duh! it is indicative of our whole "pay as you go" government!

Minus the "pay' part and replacing it with borrow or print.

MrBeach wrote:

Congress and the Fed will never, ever admit their role in this mess.... If they don't admit a thing - J6P won't care.

That's what amazes me. Hardly anyone is holding Congress and the Fed accountable for past and ongoing sins. They are the ones appointed to look after the public's interests. If the public's interests are not being served, that's the fault of these bozos - on both sides of the aisle.

ResistanceIsFeudal wrote:

Amazing how at first, laws are needed to restrain the chaos and violence, but in the end chaos and violence is needed to restrain the law.

Yin & Yang. The Mandate of Heaven. There really is no spoon.

shill wrote:

1 million jobless face benefits loss in January

CR called at 5:52p. He said you should keep up:
.
One million Workers to Exhaust Unemployment Benefits in January

patientrenter wrote:

That's what amazes me. Hardly anyone is holding Congress and the Fed accountable for past and ongoing sins.

There is literally no way to hold them accountable. They have put themselves above the law, and rigged the electoral system such that they cannot be removed through the process that was intended to hold them accountable.

fyi: John Reich, OTS Chairman 9 Aug 2005 -> Resign 12 Feb 2009 -> Gone 27 Feb 2009
the penultimate anti-regulator

Thanks Yag....just got in from work

shill wrote:

Thanks Yag....just got in from work

Np. Just keeping you honest. Wink

**we **pay! they print! idiots keep on borrowing!

EvilHenryPaulson wrote:

Resign 12 Feb 2009 -> Gone 27 Feb 2009

Seriously. What took him so long to get out of Dodge?

sm_landlord: They won.

They sure did.

sm_landlord wrote:

Let the states blow themselves up one at a time if they so choose, but at least the damage would be better contained when regulatory failure happens.

Some states learned from S&L and did not repeat the FAIL. Even so, if the derivatives and TBTF are not fixed, Just five of fifty fools can bring us to the brink again.

The situation seems pretty hopeless.

I have no faith in the Administration, Congress, or the Courts to stop the fraud, boom-bust-bailout doom loop.

digalert wrote:

Hindsight is 20/20

** THIS IS NOT TRUE!!!** It seems like it should be, but look at the evidence. We know what the causes are, but they still can't see it!!

ResistanceIsFeudal wrote:

sm_landlord: They won.

Yup. And you can't even leave without giving them at least half of everything you own.

sdtfs wrote:

they still can't see it!!

"They" can see it, sdtfs. But it works better for them as long as things continue the way they are.

I look at the failure to change the regulatory environment and regain control of the finance sector as being similar to a failed large city police department. Hard to investigate without finding corruption runs throughout and if you arrest everybody who did wrong you wouldn't have an effective department. Problems get systemic and the DOJ/FBI steps in and takes control, arrests a few bad cops for publicity sake, lets some brass retire and then they run the department for a few years until a better internal culture takes root. Problem is the corruption runs deep and is so prevalent between our leadership and the FIRE sector that you now have to completely change the system to regain confidence/control. Not sure you can or who would be the authority to investigate. Best to either sweep it under the carpet or just accept it is what it is and move on. Accepted way of life around the world and in Chicago.

ex of a few failed police depts that ended up having federal oversight:
Los Angeles
New Orleans
Cincinnati
New York periodically
Chicago

Power corrupts. Part of the human condition.

patientrenter wrote:

Hardly anyone is holding Congress and the Fed accountable for past and ongoing sins

Grayson and Paul are trying. Wait for a little more hurt and for someone more credible than Beck and the tea baggers, to rally around and I think we'll see a change of tune. It took GD I to get Glass-Steagall. It may take GD-II to get it back.

CR, spot-on as usual.

Problem was never with regulators not having the authority, it was their lack of balls to act on that authority. Or in some instances, their lack of brains to understand the problems.

sm_landlord wrote:

you can't even leave without giving them at least half of everything you own.

I am OK with paying taxes, sm_landlord. My complaint is not about our govt being too far to the left or too far to the right. Both right and left pushed about equally hard to inflate asset price bubbles, and the resulting misallocation of capital, lives, and rewards and wealth is highly corrosive to the US economy and society.

It took GD I to get Glass-Steagall. It may take GD-II to get it back.

Please change "may" to "will."

It's going to take more than just a little more hurt. I see absolutely nothing changing until after the collapse. However long that takes. Once we destroy ourselves, the landscape will alter drastically and we can see who's capable of doing the rallying then.

edit: Maybe the person who leads us out of the rubble will be someone completely unexpected. Eliot Spitzer to the rescue? Big smile

patientrenter wrote:

I am OK with paying taxes, sm_landlord.

I'm OK with paying reasonable taxes as well. But everyone should have the option of voting with their feet when a system becomes unsalvageable or intolerable. That's a human rights issue, not a tax issue.

Shnaps
In more than one case like OTS Chairman Reich, SEC Chairmen Levitt and Cox, Federal Reserve Chairmen Bernanke and Greenspan, FDIC Chairman Powell, it was a policy / philosophy / ideology -- to varying degrees -- of anti-regulation
that's just from the top of my head. Now Levitt and Greenspan are popping up every other day in the media trying to cover their ass for historical purposes, saying something has to change -- but it shouldn't be through added regulation please

sm_landlord wrote:

But everyone should have the option of voting with their feet when the system becomes unsalvageable or intolerable. That's a human rights issue, not a tax issue.

Canada is forcing Americans to return to U.S.?

Amazing how at first, laws are needed to restrain the chaos and violence, but in the end chaos and violence is needed to restrain the law.

,
I am reminded of the John Adams book (and mini-series on HBO). Our second president was walking that line for much of his early life as a lawyer, defending redcoats who gunned down civilians or enforced tax collection, only to finally go over to the revolution.

Frankly, I don't think we have that kind of principled thinking these days in general. And less so among the jackals who presume to lead us.

Barney Frank, the Massachusetts Democrat who is chairman of the House Financial Services Committee, said in an interview that the defaults were, in essence, worth it. “I don’t think it’s a bad thing that the bad loans occurred,” he said. “It was an effort to keep prices from falling too fast. That’s a policy.”

'Nuf sed.

yagij wrote:

Canada is forcing Americans to return to U.S.?

I was referring to the policy of assessing death taxes upon renouncing citizenship.

Oxtail wrote:

However long that takes.

USA is still in the denial stage. Anger is next...

Five Stages of Grief.

sm_landlord wrote:

I was referring to the policy of assessing death taxes upon renouncing citizenship.

You don't renounce. Besides, who is going to stop you from "taking a hike" in Idaho into Canada with your PM collection in your bag/sack/shoe? It will be the Shawshank Redemption. You will smuggle one gold coin every weekend 'til it is all out of the country. Wink
.
The underground economy worked for illegals here. Just gotta get savvy and scrappy in your newfound "homeland"

Blackhalo wrote:

USA is still in the denial stage. Anger is next...

Got Popcorn??

The key problem -- tax money does two things:
1) creates a protected governmental class that draws their salary from those revenues
2) creates a permanent entitlement underclass

Both of which groups are totally dependent on tax revenue for their very existence, and both of which groups vote. At different times, monarchs, aristocracy, an educated citizenry, and a mercantile middle class served to keep those forces somewhat in check.

I know this will sound naive but banks and other public corporations have a board of directors. In addition, the investment managers can exercise their fiduciary role when voting the shares they hold in public companies.

Harndog wrote:

banks and other public corporations have a board of directors.

US laws make most shareholders toothless. All they can do is sell their stock.

patientrenter wrote:

US laws make most shareholders toothless.

Hence the insane CEO salaries.

I sensed a tremendous amount of pain and anger among my peers when the stock market was crashing and their savings were getting rapidly decimated. Now that AAPL and GOOG are nearing their highs - people seem much calmer.

Some friends have aggressively ridden the rising market up from the spring and ahead of where they were last year.

They want to hear nothing of systemic collapse, currency crisis, regulatory capture, bond market failure, etc.

As long as their wealth is growing, they are willing to overlook everything.

This is really the key: people will only demand change under duress.

For the moment, we have QE and direct mortgage market support. And who knows, perhaps even secret stock market support.

J6P is calmed. TPTB can keep their jobs.

I don't get it! Did those CEO's steal their teeth or what?

sm_landlord wrote:

But everyone should have the option of voting with their feet when a system becomes unsalvageable or intolerable. That's a human rights issue, not a tax issue.

Hmm, not used to sharing your views.

MrBeach wrote:

For the moment, we have QE and direct mortgage market support. And who knows, perhaps even secret stock market support.
J6P is calmed

Well said. J6P wants asset bubbles, and the more the merrier. Sitting on rising asset prices is a lot easier than saving the old-fashioned way - spending less than you earn.

patientrenter wrote:

Well said. J6P wants asset bubbles, and the more the merrier.

Speaking of which, the USD/JPY cross is heading back down to an 88 handle. Looks like the BoJ has to warm up their presses again. Tired
.
Edit: Also, Nikki is slumping today. Bad sushi?

MrBeach wrote:

As long as their wealth is growing, they are willing to overlook everything.

Those that are employed and invested, yes.

IMHO the worm turns when the market takes its final deep bow, which shouldn't be too far off.

yagij wrote:

Besides, who is going to stop you from "taking a hike" in Idaho into Canada

"Follow the drinking gourd." (Follow the North Star to freedom. Maybe Broward will run a safe house.)

patientrenter wrote:

Well said. J6P wants asset bubbles, and the more the merrier.

Everyone wants another sucker to enter the Ponzi scheme and make them whole. Last year when the scheme collapsed worldwide and the sucker became the taxpayer - aka J6P, we went deep into the rabbit hole.

Clearly a snake can eat its own tail and be satisfied.

TJ and The Bear wrote:

the worm turns when the market takes its final deep bow, which shouldn't be too far off

You have a fascinating belief that one day TPTB will wake up and stop printing money. I cannot share your idealism.

Aarrrgh..."In a letter to the inspector general, OTS director John M. Reich described Dochow's actions as a "relatively small factor in the events leading to the failure of IndyMac." Dochow has been reassigned to work in Washington on "special projects" and as head of human resources, pending completion of the inquiry, according to a memo sent to OTS staff yesterday."

Head of human resources!!!!....Kafkaesque Angry

patientrenter wrote:

You have a fascinating belief that one day TPTB will wake up and stop printing money.

Speaking of which, I was reminded to order some more PM tonight for some odd reason... Puzzled
.
Now, I just gotta decide to move into GLD or SLV and be willing to sit in it for 3-6 months without losing sleep.

Nikkei has dropped about 8% in the last 3 weeks. Sitting near a 4-month low.

patientrenter wrote:

I cannot share your idealism.

The markets and the printed money are not the same thing, although they are related. Stocks will dive regardless.

J6P is calmed. TPTB can keep their jobs.

That will change.

rosethorn, from that WaPo article you linked to:

"The Washington Post reported last month that OTS allowed thrifts to lend massively while reserves against future losses dwindled. "

Isn't that what's happening in plain sight at both the FDIC and the FHA right now? Is Congress reining them in too?

Sounds like someone's getting impatient. Smile

patientrenter wrote:

Is Congress reining them in too?

No, because "that's a policy".

TJ and The Bear wrote:

IMHO the worm turns when the market takes its final deep bow, which shouldn't be too far off.

TJ: Like many folks here and on other blogs, I've been doing some deep thinking about this.

  1. With ZIRP and QE, we have negative interest rates - banks can borrow short term against crap assets from the FED at zero rates and immediately lend to the Treasury - earning a risk free spread. (Or as long as ZIRP is in place).
  2. Banks can then use the free money to gamble in markets and blow up fundamental-analysis based shorts.
  3. J6P responds to the support in the market by keeping his money in.
  4. Repeat starting at step #1.

What makes this game stop?

a) ZIRP ends. Not likely with employment numbers where they are.

b) Bond market blows up. Not likely with the world in similar duress.

c) Currency crisis (commodities skyrocket?) - maybe

d) Fundamentals get so far out of whack that sanity prevails. Why? Look at some of the junkiest stocks - no bit of fundamental analysis can support their stock prices. But if you aggressively short them, you'll get your head handed to you by a someone with free money in their pockets.

Serious question: what makes this period in the stock market end?

There is not a doubt in my mind that this was the official policy if the Bush administration. Now let's see some serious investigations and let the chips fall where they may.

the real damage comes when the markets settle down around some stable level for a few years
we have enough material to write investigative reports, books, tv features, documentaries, etc. for 20 years
that's when the reputation not only gets torn up, but repeatedly pulverized so badly that even the most ignorant investor living in a cave in Kazakhstan will know not to trust American markets
.... smells like ... chloroform ?
oh hey, where did all these g-men come from?
Nytol

Well said. J6P wants asset bubbles, and the more the merrier. Sitting on rising asset prices is a lot easier than saving the old-fashioned way - spending less than you earn.
J6P doesn't know or care what an asset bubble is. He is locked into an unsustainable lifestyle that was enabled by a level of credit that is no longer available, and the expectation that this situation would never change in his lifetime.

Gary wrote:

There is not a doubt in my mind that this was the official policy if the Bush administration

Asset bubbles are "policy" for most US politicians on both the left and right of the spectrum. When Republicans were in power, they acted on this. Now that Democrats are in power, they are acting on it too. This is way beyond a petty partisan point-scoring game.

what makes this period in the stock market end?

The next shock, whatever it is.

The next shock, that even Brad DeLong now seems to admit, will bring down the system.

MrBeach wrote:

Serious question: what makes this period in the stock market end?

I'll take door c) please Bob.

Uh, isn't our guy saying,"The past is past, and let's move forward!" ?
Or are we hoping someone else will step up?
And why haven't they already?

what makes this end?

A sudden, catastrophic collapse that can't be timed or gamed in advance.

From Edward Harrison:

Barack Obama: “if we keep on adding to the debt… that could actually lead to a double-dip” - Credit Writedowns

... Think of an economy this way: the people in any economy buy goods and services from one another and from the outside. In any given time period, one person, one company or one group/sector might use credit in order to buy more goods and services than it makes in income. It’s like spending future income by using credit. This puts that individual, company or group/sector in deficit i.e. they have spent more money than they have earned. Now obviously, if one sector is in deficit in a given period (i.e. they have spent more capital than they have earned), then the other sectors are in net surplus (i.e. they have received more cash than they have earned).

Let’s give these groups/sectors of the economy names: the private sector, the public sector and the foreign sector. Giving the groups names makes it plain that if the public sector is in deficit, the combined foreign and private sectors must be in surplus. Simply put, if you look at all of the households and businesses that make up the private sector and aggregate them together, you can determine if the private sector has a net surplus or a net deficit in any individual time period. And if the private sector has a net surplus, the combined foreign sector and public sector must have a deficit for that time period. The sector financial balances move in concert.

What this means for today is that a government which reduces its deficit in a given time period is forcing an equal reduction in surplus in the private and foreign sectors. So that means, in aggregate, the private sector and the foreign sector will reduce the surplus cash it is taking in over what it spends. ...

Some nutty foreigners are still buying up assets:

of course, at 1% of cost, they don't have to find any real silver lining the dome.

MrBeach wrote:

what makes this period in the stock market end?

how is next week for you? promise it will be done within the month
/said EHP from the spacious trunk of a ford taurus with cop specs

A sudden, catastrophic collapse that can't be timed or gamed in advance.

Oh, I think it can be figured out.

Gary wrote:

There is not a doubt in my mind that this was the official policy if the Bush administration. Now let's see some serious investigations and let the chips fall where they may.

Unfortunately for justice seekers, the current admin is in the business of "looking forward, not back," which is convenient given how much it would be wiped out by any serious investigation.

EHP: Next week will be good. But make it monday. I have some family coming over.

Seriously: without a precipitating event that breaks the moral hazard, J6P has been conditioned to believe that markets will come back. Unlike last fall, he ain't easily selling this time.

Exactly. This Dochow person should be canned and barred from any kind of government employment. Failing that, he ought to at least be mopping floors in the basement.

MLM: A global currency crisis? Or a USD currency crisis?

MrBeach wrote:

Serious question: what makes this period in the stock market end?

Yeah, I'd go with c) and the resulting treasury/dollar bust as well.

You should put it up as a poll.

Not a single bank has failed in Canada. From what I have read they have a principles based regulatory system versus our rules based system. From what I have learned when the Canadian OFSI says jump the banks listen. They have only one regulator, but that regulator is very powerful. They conduct frequent audits of their big five banks and strictly control capital levels. And those banks can not engage in financial conduct that is not approved of by the OFSI. Reminds me of the USMJ that governs our military. Engage in any conduct that is a violation of the general article or the article governing conduct unbecoming and you are in a world of hurt. It does not matter that you might know what exactly gets you in trouble, but you engage in said conduct that brings a bad name to the military you are in a world of hurt. That is an example of a principles based system vs a rules based system. Like the US military, Canadian banks also are governed by a principles based system. Might be a model worth exploring.

MrBeach wrote:

Serious question: what makes this period in the stock market end?

What made dot-bomb blow? Fundamentals always reassert themselves at some point. Besides, if you follow the markets you know these levels are not supported by widespread buying and heavy volume. There are forces working against it, they just haven't quite prevailed yet. Soon.

EvilHenryPaulson wrote:

oil.

Good point. >$4 Gas crushes sooo many things.

mp: I hope it can't be figured out. Otherwise, the Vampire Squid from Hell win by default (maybe by default).

I will be happy to see the Bob Rubins and Larry Summers of the world right there next to them in the dock. You think we should sweep this under the rug and say bygones? No. We need some goddamned accountability for once.

Oil prices can't seem to confidently break $80/barrel. With the massive amount of supply overhang, I'd imagine that the price is being driven by fear of a mideast flareup.

Anecdotally, friends are very happy that the stock market has recovered. They're back to driving their A6s and 5-series while hoping to get a big payoff somewhere and buying an R8. The price of oil isn't hurting them - now that they see a floor under their homes and stock portfolios.

I don't know who Dochow is exactly, but I doubt he was the most powerful inflater of the home price bubble amongst those who represent the public's interests, elected and appointed .

My vote is to pick the most powerful such person today, and hold them accountable for the damage they are doing to our future. Just to placate those who think this is a witch-hunt designed merely to further partisan political catfighting, pick the most culpable public servant from the other side of the aisle and give them the same treatment.

BTW, all this talk about when the market'll break is really reminiscent of the same talk we had years ago about both the markets and (before that) the housing bubble itself.

They all come down eventually.

Oil is certainly a possibility.

Another possibility could be a $US crisis that forces Bernanke to raise rates.

MrBeach,

Here's one of your scenarios that's highly likely, regardless of the stock market:

PrudentBear

sdtfs wrote:

Sounds like someone's getting impatient.

How right you are. I'll calm down now. Wink

Nytol

Thanks for the compliments/feedback. I can only speak about a couple of things I saw while employed at FDIC. First, once Chairman Don Powell was appointed things definitely changed in a dramatic fashion for not only examiners but also the investigations staff where I worked in DRR. For example we were ordered to close out multi-million dollar criminal restitutions from the 1980s/1990s crisis rather than to continue to try and collect these criminal restitutions. With fewer open restitutions on the FDIC's books it could justify continued downsizings via the 2005 RIF when my job ended. Examiners complained some loudly. FDIC had many hellish ways to punish employees who didn't get in line. Involuntary transfers 2,000 miles from home to a frozen wasteland. Downgrades, no promotions for 20 years, poor assignments or plum assignments going to others, no awards or training, supervisors from hell, the list is fucking long, hard and creative...

ALL HAIL FFDIC!!! Nice to see you, dude!!!

Beers all around! Beer Beer Beer Beer Beer Beer Beer Beer Beer Beer Beer

p.s.: And some vino for the ladies... In Vino Veritas In Vino Veritas In Vino Veritas In Vino Veritas In Vino Veritas In Vino Veritas In Vino Veritas In Vino Veritas In Vino Veritas In Vino Veritas In Vino Veritas

TJ and The Bear wrote:

Besides, if you follow the markets you know these levels are not supported by widespread buying and heavy volume.

Agreed.

But hope is an amazing thing. Friends who held through the fall and winter feel rewarded. Those that sold feel like chumps. Some have gotten back in the markets. Many are convinced that "America is back".

We all kind of knew that some of the dotcom companies were jokes - no real revenue underneath them at all.

But if you disregard valuation and just look at recent price action: some big cap stable American names still are perceived by J6P to be trading at "cheap" prices. Those that followed this line of thinking on some large cap nasdaq stocks did very well for themselves.

So - although I want to agree with you. I just don't see fundamentals reasserting themselves anytime soon.

MrBeach wrote:

Oil prices can't seem to confidently break $80/barrel.

Maybe I'm being contrarian, but I'm starting to wonder if we are underestimating the deflationary forces at work: Supply & Velocity. Credit is contracting at a good clip, and money is slowing down to to a velocity that denotes a brisk walk at best and a sluggish walk at worse. I know that price inflation is going to be a monetary event, and we are looking at a vicious case of stagflation as an almost good case scenario. However I just can't see where the players can move beyond commodities that can't be moved (e.g. oil & NG) because the "real" economy doesn't need them like it once did.
.
Maybe the deflationary forces are so massive at the moment that only the paper market can escape its grasp, and eventually, even the paper will be trapped because nothing will have real value that isn't used within a 3-6 month time span (e.g. food, water, minimal clothing)? Just hazarding a thought process.

FFDIC wrote:

FDIC had many hellish ways to punish employees who didn't get in line. Involuntary transfers 2,000 miles from home to a frozen wasteland. Downgrades, no promotions for 20 years, poor assignments or plum assignments going to others, no awards or training, supervisors from hell, the list is fucking long, hard and creative...

YouTube - Kevin Bacon - Fraternity Paddle

MrBeach wrote:

I just don't see fundamentals reasserting themselves anytime soon.

Nobody ever rings a bell at the top. Wink

FFDIC wrote:

FDIC had many hellish ways to punish employees who didn't get in line.

I would love the people responsible to be roasted. But I'd like to make sure the top guys responsible for the asset price bubbles get their just desserts too. It's really annoying to see the captains and majors get prosecuted for war crimes and the field marshals going free - and some even continuing to be field marshals.

First, once Chairman Don Powell was appointed things definitely changed in a dramatic fashion for not only examiners but also the investigations staff where I worked in DRR.

Powell had to get his marching orders from somewhere.

patientrenter wrote:

It's really annoying to see the captains and majors get prosecuted for war crimes and the field marshals going free - and some even continuing to be field marshals.

That only happens when the problem is at the top. Makes me think of Abu Garaib.

It's seems we're all sitting around waiting for Glodot. Smile

Thanks FFDIC.

The more you speak out the better.

Great to see you back, FFDIC! We've missed you terribly.

On the subject at hand, regulatory forbearance is like moral hazard: very much part of the here-and-now, not some prior act to be investigated. Indeed, it's an essential ingredient in our plans to extricate ourselves from our collective indebtedness. Which should show for the 16231th time how stupid those plans are.

But I don't care whether there's a congressional investigation or not. Pecora and Ness are dead. We now have Frank and Schapiro. It's a complete waste of time if it does occur.

The only tangential benefit I can imagine is that it would slow down the descent into corporatism a little bit. Maybe.

It's seems we're all sitting around waiting for Glodot.

I'm sitting around waiting for my once a week Big Mac.

Tonight is Big Mac Night.

There is a huge amount of plain old arrogance at FDIC and as long as Barney Frank has FDIC's back it will only grow into a larger cancer on the American people.

Blackhalo wrote:

hat only happens when the problem is at the top.

I think you had the snark on. But in the middle of the largest asset price bubble in recorded history, anyone at the top who says they were unaware is not credible. You could see the bubble all around you every day, in public stock prices and home prices.

This may be old hat to you but it was new to me.

Gives a whole new meaning to being "upside down" on your home.

[And in FL, no less.]

My prediction.... at the end of the day if there is an investigation ( unlikely ) it will be found that no one really did anything wrong, no rules were broken and no-one will be prosecuted or pilloried for gross incompetence. So business as usual basically.
~splat

There is a huge amount of plain old arrogance at FDIC and as long as Barney Frank has FDIC's back it will only grow into a larger cancer on the American people.

Why don't you consider writing something for CR's blog?

Or, are you concerned about black helicopters and ninjas? Wink

MrBeach wrote:

MLM: A global currency crisis? Or a USD currency crisis?

A global monetary freak out, precipated by a USD currency crisis.

Imagine China dropping the peg, the Saudis announcing they want to be paid in Euros, and Russian announcing they insist on being paid in currencies partially backed by gold for their natgas, all in the space of a few weeks. I think that gives a rough feel of some of the craziness during GD1, and this really ought to be worse all things considered.

patientrenter wrote:

But in the middle of the largest asset price bubble in recorded history, anyone at the top who says they were unaware is not credible.

Like with The Law (tm), what you "know" and what you can prove are two different things. It is in that relationship that the Top go free and the Middle get punished. Why else would SOx only punish CFOs and not CEOs of cooked books?
.
Does anyone even worry about SOx any more?

FFDIC wrote:

There is a huge amount of plain old arrogance at FDIC and as long as Barney Frank has FDIC's back it will only grow into a larger cancer on the American people.

All the dogs in my neighborhood just started howling at the moon simultaneously. Did someone say Barney Fran -- lightning bolt strikes down heretic ndk

I've at least enjoyed the Bair/Geithner turf war for the spectacle of it. To step on some toes, it's like watching a Yankees/Red Sox game. It's good theater and sport even if you hate both the competitors and wish there were a way for both of them to lose. (and for the record, I prefer Bair to Geithner by a fair margin)

Anyway, the punishment of the prudent and the just makes my blood boil. Anyone with a mote of ethos has been banished so deep into the bowels of these organizations and our collective national leadership, public and private, that we should expect all above a certain rank to be total slimeballs.

It's certainly true in academia, and I count a number of CIO's and provosts as personal friends. I'd just hate, Hate, to have to work with or under them.

But at least they can't send you to Hoboken to clean up Joisey State Thrift & Loan.

yagij wrote:

Why else would SOx only punish CFOs and not CEOs of cooked books?

Have there been any cases of SOx actually being used to prosecute anyone ?
~splat

splat wrote:

it will be found that no one really did anything wrong, no rules were broken and no-one will be prosecuted or pilloried for gross incompetence.

Not quite. Some mid-level former bureaucrats and political hacks will be sacrificed to keep attention away from the real powers - people like Frank, Rove, Summers, Bernanke, Greenspan, Geithner, Dodd. [For the life of me, I'd like to add more Republican names to this list, but were there really many Republicans smart enough to orchestrate asset price bubbles as well as someone like Frank or Summers?]

TJ and The Bear wrote:

Here's one of your scenarios that's highly likely, regardless of the stock market:

Thanks - that was a good article.

FFDIC wrote:

Downgrades, no promotions for 20 years, poor assignments or plum assignments going to others, no awards or training, supervisors from hell, the list is fucking long, hard and creative...

There appears to be a journalistic appetite for exploring this, FFDIC, that may have not existed a year or two ago. You would be doing your patriotic duty to contact Eric Dash, Alison Vekshin, or one of the other competent reporters who have already shown interest in this topic and providing some context for them. We've been giving the 4th estate a bad rap over the past while, but I think there are still reporters and editors who are just waiting for a bombshell story like this to build a career out of. Perhaps you've moved on and are no longer interested in thinking of this, but at least throw down some thoughts into an anonymous letter, maybe laced with a few tantalizing crumbs that lead a reporter to a door or two they would have never thought to open.

I'll be the voice of youthful optimism today: give the 4th estate a chance to redeem themselves and watch how quickly the government cowers in fear.

ndk - Those willing to serve The Market and accept its higher amorality are doing fine.

Personally I would like to see an investigation, however given the FDIC's army of in house lawyers and deep pockets to hire expert outside counsel ... well, the lawers would win in the end. During the 1930s investigations FDIC had a tiny legal team and mostly honest people. None of that is what we are dealing with today. It has grown into an arrogant monster with plenary powers that are ever expanding with no significant investigations to assist the tax paying public.

I wish I lived in a world where Noob's suggestion was one you could act on, FFDIC. Best of luck to you, whatever you do.

patientrenter wrote:

For the life of me, I'd like to add more Republican names to this list, but were there really many Republicans smart enough to orchestrate asset price bubbles as well as someone like Frank or Summers?]

How powerful and influential was Frank before the 2006 elections?

It is hard to plan from 6 sigma outlier events.

Having said that one of my recent favorite quotes is this:

Things have a way of going from the impossible to the inevitable without ever stopping at probable.

Today's six sigma is tomorrow's hoocoodanode.

RE wrote:

How powerful was Frank before the 2006 elections?

Very. But clearly Republicans had the upper hand before 2006. Today, we know the small group that holds all the strings of power - Summers, Bernanke, Geithner, Frank, and Dodd. They may be misguided, but they are smart and effective, and orchestrate the whole show. Who were the corresponding Republicans before 2006? I honestly don't know. Clearly millions of Republican businessmen and homeowners and politicians wanted cheap borrowing and higher asset prices and, like a dumb herd, they all pulled in this direction. But were there powers behind the scenes corresponding to the current group of 5 above? Greenspan comes closest, that I know of.

Things have a way of going from the impossible to the inevitable without ever stopping at probable.

Like my Big Mac.

Tongue Nytol

FDIC and OCC examiners and other regulatory employees have written many heartfelt truthful letters to various members of Congress over the years - some dating back to the mid 1980s. Congress is NOT in the dark about these matters.
I even wrote Sen Frank in 2005 and got a personal fuck off letter from him and my $1,000 check returned while he took millions from banking interests. I may try to locate my letter to Frank and his tacky response and send it to CR for review.

FFDIC wrote:

I even wrote Sen Frank in 2005

I think we know Frank has zero interest in prudent lending. But what about Noob's idea of dropping a few breadcrumbs for the 4th estate?

patientrenter wrote:

Who were the corresponding Republicans before 2006?

Cheney, Greenspan, Oxley, Grassley, Paulson, Cox.

patientrenter wrote:

I wish I lived in a world where Noob's suggestion was one you could act on, FFDIC. Best of luck to you, whatever you do.

There's a lot of cynicism on this board when it comes to the internal mechanisms of the government, a cynicism rightfully bred from recognizing the issues early and seeing warnings go unheeded and perpetrators go unpunished. But we're statistical outliers in that respect; the overwhelming majority of the great unwashed still believes their government operates in their best interest, for the most part, and does not have the same cynical attitude toward its ability to heal itself.

If the population in general becomes cynical toward their government, society has a problem. But I don't think we're there yet, personally, and an enterprising reporter might just find an audience for a bit of Watergate-type scandal.

Bunnatine Greenhouse-DOD, James Hansen-NASA, David Graham-FDA, Richard Foster-HHS, Sibel Edmonds-FBI

Just a few of the casualties in the war on truth, regulatory oversight, and stewardship. Could there have been a federal civil servant anywhere who didn't get the message?

patientrenter wrote:

Very. But clearly Republicans had the upper hand before 2006.

Well, have you heard of Rep. Michael Oxley? He held the strings during the most egregious period of the bubble. Frank, relatively, wasn't powerful at all during that period as the Dems were a distinct minority with very little leverage. Admittedly, Dems have more leverage today but that is primarily as a result of more voices in the Senate and obviously the Presidency.

To try to pin this disaster on Frank is a joke.

Cheney was just in Texas (without his hot stun gun) talking up Kay Bitchey Hutchinson for Gov...

c'mon sheeple - get in the spirit!

Silver, silver and gold
Silver and gold, silver and gold
Ev'ryone wishes for silver and gold
How do you measure its worth?
Just by the pleasure it gives here on earth.
Silver and gold, silver and gold
Mean so much more when I see
Silver and gold decorations
On ev'ry Christmas tree.
Silver, silver and gold
Silver, silver and gold
Silver and gold

Santa

noob goldberg wrote:

If the population in general becomes cynical toward their government, society has a problem.

When, not if, noob.

Blackhalo wrote:

Cheney, Oxley, Grassley, Paulson, Cox

Huh? Paulson was in the private sector prior to 2006. I expect that CEOs will look after their own interests. I expect, and we should all expect, better of our public servants.

FFDIC wrote:

Cheney was just in Texas (without his hot stun gun) talking up Kay Bitchey Hutchinson for Gov...

As unpleasant as she would be, it's still an improvement.

patientrenter, enough of your shilling. I put up with your "pox on both their houses" false equivalency BS. But that last statement is flat out false.

The significance of 2002 is that the GOP consolidated their power and took full control of congress. DSo the Bushies had all the executive functions, and after the 2002 elections, completely eliminated meaningful congressional oversight. No subpoenas. No hearings. No investigations.

Barney Frank was practically powerless from 2002-2006.

FFDIC wrote:

FDIC and OCC examiners and other regulatory employees have written many heartfelt truthful letters to various members of Congress over the years - some dating back to the mid 1980s. Congress is NOT in the dark about these matters.
I even wrote Sen Frank in 2005 and got a personal fuck off letter from him and my $1,000 check returned while he took millions from banking interests. I may try to locate my letter to Frank and his tacky response and send it to CR for review.

Do you know how stuff like this would make a reporter drool? A copy of your letter and Barney's response from 2005 is gold. Similarly, if any of your former colleagues have kept their correspondence, this stuff writes itself.

noob goldberg wrote:

There's a lot of cynicism on this board when it comes to the internal mechanisms of the government, a cynicism rightfully bred from recognizing the issues early and seeing warnings go unheeded and perpetrators go unpunished.

I totally thought you were going to follow this with something like, "But at times, that cynicism can go too far, and you must always give a sinner sufficient incentive and leeway to reform. Without the benefit of the doubt, we leave not even room for change."

Psych.

But we're statistical outliers in that respect; the overwhelming majority of the great unwashed still believes their government operates in their best interest, for the most part, and does not have the same cynical attitude toward its ability to heal itself.

That may be true in Canada. That is almost certainly not true in America. Have you seen the approval ratings for Congress? I'm reasonably sure they dropped below 20% awhile ago. That's as close to a proxy as we'll find for "do you trust your government?" in a national poll.

patientrenter wrote:

Paulson was in the private sector prior to 2006.

Snow? But come on. Paulson IS the Vampire Squid from Hell

In 2004, at the request of the major Wall Street investment houses—including Goldman Sachs, then headed by Paulson—the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission agreed unanimously to release the major investment houses from the net capital rule, the requirement that their brokerages hold reserve capital that limited their leverage and risk exposure. The complaint put forth by the investment banks was of increasingly onerous regulatory requirements—in this case, not U.S. regulator oversight, but European Union regulation of the foreign operations of US investment groups. In the immediate lead-up to the decision, EU regulators also acceded to US pressure, and agreed not to scrutinize foreign firms' reserve holdings if the SEC agreed to do so instead. The 1999 Gramm-Leach-Bliley Act, however, put the parent holding company of each of the big American brokerages beyond SEC oversight. In order for the agreement to go ahead, the investment banks lobbied for a decision that would allow "voluntary" inspection of their parent and subsidiary holdings by the SEC.

During this repeal of the net capital rule, SEC Chairman William H. Donaldson agreed to the establishment of a risk management office that would monitor signs of future problems. This office was eventually dismantled by Chairman Christopher Cox, after discussions with Paulson. According to the New York Times, "While other financial regulatory agencies criticized a blueprint by Treasury Secretary Mr. Paulson proposing to reduce their stature — and that of the S.E.C. — Mr. Cox did not challenge the plan, leaving it to three former Democratic and Republican commission chairmen to complain that the blueprint would neuter the agency."[12]

Henry Paulson - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Good thread. Reality is hitting the fan!

Beware PTB: Hell hath no fury like a bunch of suckers conned... nor free time to plot insurrection like the unemployed.

Gary wrote:

Barney Frank was practically powerless from 2002-2006.

Thank glod he's had the chance to make up for it since!

Is that reality or gold hitting the fan? Clank, clank, clank.. cl

When do we get money back? No dollars please.

"At the height of the economic boom, to take an aggressive supervisory approach and tell people to stop lending is hard to do."

American Dream - Get in touch with Your Inner Coward. And do not, I repeat, DO NOT rock the boat! I hope, the blackberry textual message based Glorious Revolution will come soon. Or maybe better outsource that dirty revolution making to Chinese peasants...

Lay off the viagra noob. I've been talking to Alex Blumberg with NPR ...he did a FDIC fluff piece on a tiny bank closing and thinks it is great. Snore....

ResistanceIsFeudal wrote:

nor free time to plot insurrection like the unemployed.

Nor incentive if benefits run out.

"At the height of the economic boom, to take an aggressive supervisory approach and tell people to stop lending is hard to do."

I might not get my bonus and free parking...

Does the pyramid on the dollar bill mean anything?

RE wrote:

To try to pin this disaster on Frank is a joke

I wasn't trying to pin this disaster on Republicans OR Democrats. Even a moron can see that the blame for what happened and is now happening falls squarely on both Republicans AND Democrats. As I've said before, this is way beyond petty partisan political point-scoring.

What interests me is the dynamics of the (equally misguided and selfish) thirst for asset price bubbles as an economic policy. On the Democrat side, it is highly organized, top-down. On the Republican side, I see equal and maybe greater fervor for asset price bubbles amongst the political base, but I see fewer orchestrating leaders, apart from Greenspan.

So you're saying that Cheney, Oxley, Grassley, and Cox can be added to the list of those in public service before 2006 who were the most powerful proponents of asset price bubbles? Cox seemed so out of touch at the SEC that this surprises me. He always seemed a follower rather than a leader to me, but I am probably not as well informed as you.

Does the pyramid on the dollar bill mean anything?
pyr is the Greek root for 'fire'...

FFDIC wrote:

Lay off the viagra noob. I've been talking to Alex Blumberg with NPR ...he did a FDIC fluff piece on a tiny bank closing and thinks it is great. Snore....

I think it's apparent to most that the fourth estate has become part of the problem by this point. The destruction of their independence-based business model has incentivized them to try others, like sucking executive arse for leaks and abusing their mouthpiece to benefit trades they've established. I just can't wait until they literally are funded directly by the Feds! EHP just posted a link about that which noob might consider revisiting.

And a link for the election results:

United States congressional elections, 2002 - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

From there there are two links, one for the Senate, one for the House of Reps.

Sure there are Democratic villains in this story - but they are mere background to the band of ideological cretins and crony capitalist thugs the GOP unleashed on our system.

ndk wrote:

That may be true in Canada. That is almost certainly not true in America. Have you seen the approval ratings for Congress? I'm reasonably sure they dropped below 20% awhile ago. That's as close to a proxy as we'll find for "do you trust your government?" in a national poll.

I agree, but general dissatisfaction with the work of Congress is not synonymous with 'actively working against the interest of the citizenry of the United States of America'. I think most voters, if shown evidence that Congress was actively working against them, would still sit up straight in their seats and respond "Excuse Me?" Because campaign support revenue from business aside, congress people aren't elected for life; they still do have to answer for themselves to voters, but will never do so voluntarily.

Summers, Bernanke, Geithner, Frank, and Dodd

the pre-2006 equivalents: Feldstein, Greenspan, Snow, Oxley, Shelby.

the last two primarily because they were the immediate predecessors. feldstein poisoned the field of political economics for a quarter century... summers is only beginning.

Is it just me or doesn't anybody long to see an EXAMINER or LAWYER from FDIC on TV instead of Bair? Are none of them smart enough to represent FDIC on TV? Ditto: OCC

Was it regulatory oversight or regulatory capture?

FFDIC wrote:

Lay off the viagra noob. I've been talking to Alex Blumberg with NPR ...he did a FDIC fluff piece on a tiny bank closing and thinks it is great. Snore....

I had a nap; I'm full of piss and vinegar tonight. Laughing out loud

Good night folks. FFDIC great to see you in here. Besides CR himself and mp, you're always a fine contributor. This thread was a treat!

Gary's going rouge! Goodnight Gary!

Everybody loves a bubble on the way up but the way down gets down and dirty with nastiness coming to squids and other predatory & parasitic creatures who were your friends, partners & favored lenders in good times...

why yes.
it represents Sisyphus (the debt slave, i.e. the avg citizen) condemned to push the load up a mountain, only to see it roll down again. The triangle/hill will never be conquered by j6p. Nothingburger

Basel Too wrote:

Feldstein, Greenspan, Snow, Oxley, Shelby.

Ah, now that rings a bell with me. I knew there was at least one Republican economist who annoyed the hell out of me with his constant cheerleading for asset price bubbles, trade and fiscal deficits etc, and claims that these could all be happily sustained forever. Was that Marty?

There was even some senior economist who claimed that savings were a poor measure of American's financial preparation for the future, and that the annual increases in the prices of the assets that people held should be counted as savings. Idiot.

Snow? Like Cox, I don't see him as a real driver of the agenda.

The squids and sharks will soon be on the run...

"There's a lot of cynicism on this board when it comes to the internal mechanisms of the government"

It takes at least a couple of million of dollars to get elected to Congress. Good Mr. Joe Average does not stand a chance in that horse race. "Representatives" are all from the long line of "American Monarchs", from a pool of 1000-2000 Rich Power Families. Juniors and Roman numerals in the Representatives' names-> society is pretty much fucked up.

noob goldberg wrote:

I agree, but general dissatisfaction with the work of Congress is not synonymous with 'actively working against the interest of the citizenry of the United States of America'.

Here we go. We're down to 23% of Americans who trust the Government to do the right thing at least "most of the time".

WSJ/NBC News Poll: Trusting the Government to Do the Right Thing - Washington Wire - WSJ

This used to be around 70%.

Wanna know where I first heard this metric? Volcker's speech to the Economic Club of New York some two years ago. I hear from him about as often as I hear from the examiners at FDIC. Wink

patientrenter wrote:

So you're saying that Cheney, Oxley, Grassley, and Cox can be added to the list of those in public service before 2006 who were the most powerful proponents of asset price bubbles? Cox seemed so out of touch at the SEC that this surprises me. He always seemed a follower rather than a leader to me, but I am probably not as well informed as you.

This was a very activist administration. Just because Bush was terribly inept does not mean all others in the administration were. The Bush admin was well known for its incredibly organized and disciplined approach and that included its economic policy. Bush economic policy was IMO largely formulated outside the White House and then brought inside for execution. Snow wasn't exactly brilliant and had very little vision but was effective in executing what he was told.

The fact that individuals except for Cheney and Paulson didn't get as much exposure was a sign of their political discipline. Another aspect obviously was that the crisis hadn't blown up yet. The treasury secretary and house financial services members had far less visibility before the crash for obvious reasons.

ndk wrote:

EHP just posted a link about that which noob might consider revisiting.

If it's the Felix Salmon one, I can't seem to open it.

the overwhelming majority of the great unwashed still believes their government operates in their best interest

Not so sure. I've read that there has never been a poll that did not find a majority who believed there was no conspiracy in JFK's assassination, despite all the official and main stream press effort.

Noob wrote-
"an enterprising reporter might just find an audience for a bit of Watergate-type scandal."

The 24 hour news cycle, centralizing of media to a handful of corporations and the downsizing/eradication of newspapers poses an obstacle to that hope. Multiple times over the last two years I have read a finance story that I considered important enough to trigger a broader investigation or popular outrage. Still waiting for that to manifest into action. Kinda given up tbh.

What I am seeing is a trend towards revisionism of the entire crisis and an effort to rebrand it as "these things happen in a complex economy." Keep repeating the big lie until people believe it.

Campaign finance reform is the first step...

It would be easier for Congress to go to Russia and get to the bottom of its regulatory oversight vs capture than to attempt it here and they know it.

FFDIC wrote:

It would be easier for Congress to go to Russia and get to the bottom of its regulatory oversight vs capture than to attempt it here and they know it.

Don't they just have to look in the mirror?

And then 99% of Americans need to be deprogrammed...

Externalized Costs wrote:

What I am seeing is a trend towards revisionism of the entire crisis and an effort to rebrand it as "these things happen in a complex economy." Keep repeating the big lie until people believe it.

Not just that, but how about the "everything would've been okay if we'd just kept Lehman alive"? That's seriously the finest act of spinning I have ever seen. Talk about enshrining TBTF; it was a masterful manipulation of opinion.

Piss & vinegar is hard on keyboards..

Feldstein 2008.

A successful plan to stabilize the U.S. economy ... must address the fundamental cause of the crisis: the downward spiral of house prices that devastates household wealth and destroys the capital of financial institutions that hold mortgages and mortgage-backed securities....

We need a firewall to break the downward spiral of house prices. Here's how it might work. The federal government would offer any homeowner with a mortgage an opportunity to replace 20% of the mortgage with a low-interest loan from the government, subject to a maximum of $80,000. This would be available to new buyers as well as those with mortgages. The interest on that loan would reflect the government's cost of funds and could be as low as 2%. The loan would not be secured by the house but would be a loan with full recourse, allowing the government to take other property or income in the unlikely event that the individual does not pay. It would by law be senior to other unsecured debt and not eligible for relief in bankruptcy.

RE wrote:

Cheney and Paulson

Hmm... I can see Cheney and Greenspan being the drivers, the architects. But Paulson wasn't Treasury Secretary before 2006. I don't know Grassley and Oxley so well. Are there a lot of articles describing their pushing of bad lending against overpriced assets?

ndk wrote:

Wanna know where I first heard this metric? Volcker's speech to the Economic Club of New York some two years ago. I hear from him about as often as I hear from the examiners at FDIC.

You guys are all ruining my post-nap Hopium buzz, dammit.

Volcker being muzzled is unfortunate, but hopefully the big guy realizes he's got nothing to lose and becomes a bit more vocal. But he's already fought his war, and it's unrealistic to expect an 80 year old to head back into battle. As much as we wish he would...

to the brilliant here:

this is my dream (early) retirement home. How much should this really be?

4221 Kaikoo Pl, Honolulu, HI, 96816 - MLS #2907787 - Single Family Home real estate - REALTOR.com®

The internet and access to relevant, reliable, and accurate information is also a step to deprogramming unless you end up on a programming site...so it's tricky...but the internet can be a useful tool for learning...

Basel Too wrote:

Feldstein 2008.

Thanks, Basel II. Sorta Puzzled . Makes my blood boil. So I'd vote for impaling Greenspan and Bernanke, followed by Feldstein and Frank.

Yankee wrote:

this is my dream (early) retirement home.

Beautiful. You have good taste!

Basel Too wrote:

The loan would not be secured by the house but would be a loan with full recourse, allowing the government to take other property or income in the unlikely event that the individual does not pay. It would by law be senior to other unsecured debt and not eligible for relief in bankruptcy.

The only thing missing from Feldstein's plan is breaking kneecaps and threatening your family.

I was there in Sept. I know I like that neighborhood. the view slays me.

“We’re going to have a currency crisis, probably this fall or the fall of 2010. It’s been building up for a long time. We’ve had a huge rally in the dollar, an artificial rally in the dollar, so it’s time for a currency crisis.” Jim Rogers comments to Bloomberg News, May 11, 2009

patientrenter wrote:

Hmm... I can see Cheney and Greenspan being the drivers, the architects. But Paulson wasn't Treasury Secretary before 2006.

I just mentioned them because they were the most identifiable members of the Bush Admin. Paulson clearly only got in in 2006. However, let us not forget where he worked beforehand and that the company he led had and still has a significance influence on U.S. policy. I did mention that lots of economic policy in the Bush Admin came from outside the White House.

FFDIC wrote:

Piss & vinegar is hard on keyboards..

You should see what I've done to this hotel room. What a mess.

There's no such thing as Republicans and Democrats as such just their financiers, handlers, and chief global architects who fund their special interests and goals of cornering market share and unregulated wealth accumulation and concentration...

noob goldberg wrote:

The only thing missing from Feldstein's plan is breaking kneecaps and threatening your family.

The only thing missing from Feldstein's plan is future loan modifications, foreclosure forbearance.... There, fixed....

Fading fast and failing to hit on all cylinders of cynicism tonight... Nytol

The names change but the globalized concentration of wealth process evolves in power and complexity but the results and outcomes are simple and easy to see...every day now...

patientrenter wrote:

But Paulson wasn't Treasury Secretary before 2006.

You doubt that the CEO of the Vampire Squid from Hell had a hand in setting policy during the Bush administration? That is kind of like saying Ken Lay did not have a hand is setting energy policy because he was not the VP. You might want to read Paulson's Wiki or scroll up to the pertinent passages I posted.

RE wrote:

I did mention that lots of economic policy in the Bush Admin came from outside the White House.

OK. So who were the real 2-5 architects of that policy, not just some implementers or cheerleaders? Greenspan? Marty Feldstein? Cheney? Rubin? Oxley? Grassley? Or was it just a wild mob of lobbyists from every interest group descending on DC and grabbing whatever they could, with all the Admin and Congresspeople assisting them in any way they asked?

ResistanceIsFeudal wrote:

Fading fast and failing to hit on all cylinders of cynicism tonight...

That won't do. Go have a nap and be back here in an hour.

The squid just grew bigger over time and now is too big to tame or control...and gold is a scary haven to hide in...what if the squid gets mad?

merchants of fear wrote:

gold is a scary haven to hide in

Not as scary as the alternatives.

    1. Three parties, Democrats, Republicans, and Corporatists. The first two are no longer relevant except as lightning rods.

Fun thread, everyone. Enjoy your night. Nytol

Mensor wrote:

The first two are no longer relevant except as lightning rods.

Agreed.

And I still like Treasuries. I must be barmy.

Speaking of hotel rooms, I'm off to Cardiff tomorrow. Since we're broke, the UK is extraordinarily graciously paying my way. Smile I'll check in when able. Sleep well all.

patientrenter wrote:

OK. So who were the real 2-5 architects of that policy, not just some implementers or cheerleaders? Greenspan? Marty Feldstein? Cheney? Rubin? Oxley? Grassley?

The CEOs and minions of the 5 now defunct or transmorgrified, investment banks would be where I look first.

I suspect it went something like this:

Bush Admin: "What do you want?"
Vampire Squid from Hell et al: No regulation and no capital requirements.
Bush Admin: "Done!"

Where is my squid t-shirt?

FFDIC wrote:

Where is my squid t-shirt?

That would rock! I want one!

Phil Gramm, by then at UBS, was still spinning his webs. Architect and shepard of Gramm-Leach-Bliley and Commodities Futures Modernization Act

"Talk about enshrining TBTF; it was a masterful manipulation of opinion."-ndk

Spin, pure spin. Worst part is that fallacious argument can be made to sound reasonable if you use Lehman as a single data point to form an opinion on the crisis.
++++
All of us woke up one morning on a rollercoaster. Either the ride will end and it will turn out ok or the cars will come off the tracks in the middle of the loop de loop. Most of us here think it will be a moment of free fall and a crunch. Personally I want it to find resolution regardless of the outcome. Tired of being on the ride.

g'night all

Several Texans are to blame in a big way:
1. Gramm
2. Bush (Laura not so much)
3. DeLay
4. Hutchison
5. Cornyn
6. Armey

Chuck Grassley tries to play the Midwestern plain speaker, but I find him slimy.

i like grassley's stances on prosperity churches, medical research ethics, and whistleblowing.

EvilHenryPaulson wrote:

fyi: John Reich, OTS Chairman 9 Aug 2005 -> Resign 12 Feb 2009 -> Gone 27 Feb 2009: the penultimate anti-regulator

Just for the record, the OTS was also the "regulator", if you can call it that, of AIG.

As a final horrible thought.. I read recently that FDIC's Bair wants to keep OIG's Material Loss Reviews secret or - in the alternative, reduced to slim bullet points for public consumption. I'm trying to locate the article I read in the past week or so. The OIG's very first bank where a Material Loss Review was mandated by Congress was assigned to me and I worked closely with OIG's John Colantoni to produce that report. It formed the first published example and was expanded over the years and now faces a silent and deadly end by an arrogant out of control agency.

"prosperity churches"?

See Lakewood church Houston TX...Pastor Joel Osteen preaches that you can be rich, etc.

To my mind, Bair acts as though it's her job to protect banks.

Her job is to protect depositors. All FDIC info should be public.

I prefer the idea of targeted rage to general rage against government or regulators or Congress. Just guessing that bank failures now might be a sign of "look away" regulators in the past. The abundance of failures in Georgia, Illinois, California, Florida, Minnesota-is that where the problem was? Or does a relative lack of failures in other places mean the problem still exists elsewhere?

CHICAGO (Dow Jones)--The head of a key U.S. bank regulator offered support Monday for keeping some reviews of the health of lenders private to preserve financial system liquidity.

Sheila Bair, chairman of the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp., said she saw "merit" in keeping so-called material loss ...

WSJ Oct. 26, 2009 link:
FDIC's Bair Backs Keeping Inspector General Reviews Private

FDIC's Bair Backs Keeping Inspector General Reviews Private - WSJ.com

That's fine, and I know he's fairly moderate, but I don't forget anyone who voted for TARP.

Would it be any easier to just close 1000 banks in a day and have GS pay the bill?

China Commercial Aircraft plans plant in Shanghai

China Commercial Aircraft plans plant in Shanghai - Yahoo! Finance

Earlier this week, General Electric's aviation unit teamed up with Aviation Industry Corp. of China, COMAC's state-run parent company, to develop and market electronic systems for commercial aircraft customers, including the C919 narrow-body aircraft.

GE is also supplying engines for the 70 to 110-seat ARJ-21 passenger jet, designed for the local market .

>
For some reason i doubt if the [edit] intended use is just local markets, and of course the seat capacity will grow.

designed for the local market .

Uh, huh. I'm sure it would be very difficult to move an airplane to another region... /s

CalculatedRisk wrote:

Names should be named - no matter how high up the chain. We owe this to future generations.

I'm just curious. Does Eric Holder do anything? I want his job. Golf must be involved. Like everyday.

For the psychological basis that allowed these problems see where Barbara Ehrenreich explains the perils of the Bright-Sided: How the Relentless Promotion of Positive Thinking Has Undermined America. Barbara Ehrenreich - Bright-Sided: How Positive Thinking Undermines America | Free Lecture | Forum Network from PBS and NPR

Which is worse - bankers or terrorists wrote:

I'm just curious. Does Eric Holder do anything?

He must be involved with something to do with Guantanamo at the very least. But there's not a whole lot of anything coming out of Justice. He's got a lot on his plate, that's for sure.

REBear wrote:

For some reason i doubt if the target is just local markets, and of course the seat capacity will grow.

I wish you hadn't used the word target.

FFDIC wrote:

Where is my squid t-shirt?

Great idea! I was thinking about making a Hoocoodanode t-shirt, and had been thinking of the pitchforks and torches guy, but this would be more subtle...

kcoop wrote:

FFDIC wrote:
Where is my squid t-shirt?
Great idea! I was thinking about making a Hoocoodanode t-shirt,

http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_zqzPMzXNGso/Su2-OfEnFXI/AAAAAAAADyQ/hMPQ--CzUrg/s1600-h/squid9.jpg

FFDIC - you may have just outed yourself. That's a narrow search range if someone felt so inclined.

C

He's already provided enough clues, vis a vis the class action suit and geographic locale, and work history. Don't think he's overly concerned.

Edit: Excepting shielding his buddies still in the dept.

kcoop wrote:

I was thinking about making a Hoocoodanode t-shirt,

I was thinking more along the lines of a jet black plush squid toy. Not really menacing though.

Ok, prolly not too much further forward on his skis then.

Here's another heartwarming tale of red flags ignored, this time by Yerp finance genii:

Barclays, BNP Might Have Avoided K1 Risk by Heeding ‘Red Flags’ - Bloomberg.com

And a reprise from just over a year ago that I remember well, basically could barely stop laughing, KDB musing on pitching for LEH before the regulator went instantly public with an "oh no you don't":

KDB’s Min Rues ‘Very Good Opportunity’ Missed in Lehman Failure - Bloomberg.com

Turns out some hindsight is not 20/20, it's just as batshit as before.

C

Here, with my emphasis, is what chilled me:

"Haven Trust, founded in 2000, enjoyed a light touch from its regulators, according to its autopsy, which was completed in August."

As if they just came in to slurp up some bubbly. I'm toying with the idea that the most reliable bubble indicator in real estate markets is the appearance of bandwagoning, "innovation," and such on the part of lenders. Watch for those and you'll catch'em early.

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