Manufacturing: ISM PMI vs. Markit

Very much to the point.

Dryfly,
Did'ja see this:
YouTube - [SLOW MOTION] Big Hit on Aaron Murray by Quinton Dial SEC Championship
Take a look at Aaron Murray's face at 10 seconds...it's priceless...

Which was it? Contraction or expansion?

Yes!

Truth is a relative thing. Everyone has their own.

Which was it? Contraction or expansion?

I suppose we'll hear this damn near every day for 9 months until the new King or Queen of England is born.

Ah. One good example where expansion and contraction happen at the same time.

Does it burn more calories if you pull off to the side of the road to text?

So maybe someone's pulling the curtain back on the Koch brothers...

Wikis go Astroturf: Ballotopedia, Judgepedia, WikiFOIA are Koch funded « Mercury Rising 鳯女

Maybe Dick Armey had a hint of whats coming?

Cinco-X wrote:

Dryfly,
Did'ja see this:
YouTube - [SLOW MOTION] Big Hit on Aaron Murray by Quinton Dial SEC Championship
Take a look at Aaron Murray's face at 10 seconds...it's priceless...

Had one in the Wisco-Nebraska game too but 'called it'...

YouTube - Kenny Bell block vs Wisconsin

Too many serious head injuries to let these go uncalled.

Thats funny Outsider!

Less fat on the rails:

It expects 1,700 positions to be eliminated by the end of the year. In total, the reductions will amount to the elimination of about a quarter of some 19,500 employees and contractors operating in six provices and 13 U.S. states

Read more: CP Rail to eliminate 4,500 positions by 2016 | CTV News

BarleyReturns wrote:

Read more: CP Rail to eliminate 4,500 positions by 2016 | CTV News

Don't need the bodies... trains all but drive themselves.

CR said: "Which was it? Contraction or expansion?"

It's expansion in the overall economy, and a slight contraction in the manufacturing sector.

"A PMI index over 50 represents growth or expansion within the manufacturing sector of the economy compared with the prior month. A reading under 50 represents contraction, and a reading at 50 indicates an equal balance between manufacturers reporting advances and declines in their business."

ISM - ISM Report on Business® - ISM Report On Business® Frequently Asked Questions

It's not unusual for the PMI to dip below the "50" level during expansions in the overall economy, sometimes even into the mid-40's.

ISM Manufacturing: PMI Composite Index (NAPM) - FRED - St. Louis Fed 

In the absence of any other serious indications of economic contraction, and especially with the ongoing strength in the housing market, it's expansion.

Sebastian

Investors 'Should Get Used to 1-2% Growth': Pimco’s Gross

"Growth has been challenged because much of the rest of the world has taken much of that growth from us in terms of job creation," Gross said. "We need to have policies that basically fight back."

But then...

In this "new normal" environment, Gross said that investors looking for growth and risk should look to equities in developing economies. "That's where the growth is and where the underdeveloped fiscal and balance sheets are," he said, "and that's where investors are going to experience higher returns."

WHAT'S YOUR POINT BARLEY?!?!?

"I will counsel people to be careful when buying gold coins because the markup on gold coins can be preposterous, stupid, egregious, silly," he said.

That's funny, I just posted one website of one of many dozens with retail spreads earlier today, and the difference between the buy and sell on virtually anything was less than 3%, I wonder what adjective that deserves?

I think it's time for all of us to re-read (or for the first time) Vonnegut's "Player Piano"

He was a little ahead of time in his prophesy, but the question remains, what do you do when most humans are unnecessary to produce the amount of goods those who own the 'robots' can sell?

What an amazing South Carolina day!
77F and sunny
Eating lunch out on the patio the last two days has been awesome.

Supposed to rain tomorrow.

Sebastian wrote:

In the absence of any other serious indications of economic contraction, and especially with the ongoing strength in the housing market, it's expansion.

My serious indicator is murder-suicides. They're up, ergo contraction.

Had one in the Wisco-Nebraska game too but 'called it'

as if having a 5-loss team in the Rose Bowl isn't bad enough for the B1G, UDub is losing its coach to the SEC.

How much higher are murder-suicides than usual in the City of Angles?

I wonder what adjective that deserves?

Honest? There was a reputable dealer near us, and my brother also mail ordered thru him. If I were to do gold transactions today, I would still go thru him.

dryfly wrote:

Kenny Bell block vs Wisconsin

Too many serious head injuries to let these go uncalled.

The one in the Bama/Georgia game didn't get called, and despite some "Monday Morning Refereeing", there's at least some argument that it shouldn't have been (Note that it happened right in front of an official looking straight at the play)...when you see a broader camera angle, you see that Dial led with his shoulder and the brunt of the hit was to Murray's chest, and much of the head-to-head contact was actually incidental. Murray had taken on the role of tackler after an interception, so he enjoyed no special privileges as a QB.
If there was brain trauma, I think the worst of it occurred when Murray's head bounced off the turf. Still, it's pretty obvious that Quinton Dial took advantage of the rules to really lay some wood on Murray...Damn!

I shoulda cleaned out the gutters today.
Do Not Poke The Hornet Nest

Red Lobster Fears Diner Backlash From Anti-Obamacare Stance

Darden Restaurants, owner of Red Lobster and Olive Garden, fears a backlash from customers angry about its efforts to convert more workers into part-time positions so it can avoid paying for their health care.

Might be a shorter list of who isn't going to do this.

Sever the tie between health insurance and employment. Put that on your list HG.

aClem wrote:

what do you do when most humans are unnecessary to produce the amount of goods those who own the 'robots' can sell?

That's a problem only until some guy designs a robot that wants to keep up with the Joneses. Then humans will be completely unnecessary.

Wilberforce wrote:

Had one in the Wisco-Nebraska game too but 'called it'
as if having a 5-loss team in the Rose Bowl isn't bad enough for the B1G, UDub is losing its coach to the SEC.

He is one of the least respected coaches in the B1G - I am not sure Wisconsin fans will be all that upset.

Understand - he had ALL of his assistants quit after last season to go with Paul Chryst to Pitt. Bielema was very much disliked by his own staff this year as well.

My guess is they replace him with somebody better than they lost - that Arkansas is the real loser in this transaction.

He was here. Total jerk like usual. Easy not to like the guy.

Outsider wrote:

Sever the tie between health insurance and employment. Put that on your list HG.

and replace it with what, dear penguin?

Jackdawracy wrote:

That's funny, I just posted one website of one of many dozens with retail spreads earlier today, and the difference between the buy and sell on virtually anything was less than 3%, I wonder what adjective that deserves?

He's probably talking about buying gold from 1-800 numbers on late night infomercials....

One step closer to single payer. Works for me.

Outsider wrote:

Stare

I thought yesterday here in MA was nicer...

How are the self-employeds going to purchase insurance?

For now.

Jackdawracy wrote:

How much higher are murder-suicides than usual in the City of Angles?

Got no stats. Purely anecdotal based on field activity.

I thought yesterday here in MA was nicer...

Yesterday was okay. The bees were out like crazy. Today was total fog in the 40s. Sick

as always, better to take the average, which shows sluggish growth at best.

"Medicare for all. Period. "

But then how are the elders going to be able to lord it over the FF's of the world?

"Z'up, ZipperFace? "

Speaking of gutters, how you doing?

I've been committing firecide most of the day, 2 large burn piles that being slightly wet, take a long time to turn into cinders.

You're burning valuable kindling/hugel pile material/future compost? It's the 8th deadly sin.

I steal the spouse's brush piles. He is not pleased. I snicker.

dryfly wrote:

He is one of the least respected coaches in the B1G - I am not sure Wisconsin fans will be all that upset.

If you go to the SI or ESPN article (I forget which) that discusses the move, Wisconsin fans are saying take our coach...pleeeeze...they really seem to dislike him...I'm a little surprised Auburn didn't "snap him up" Wink

I remember when I met my first employee that told me they only worked 39 hours a week in a retail job, it must have been close to a decade ago, before the economy went bad.

These clowns act as if they haven't been hiring people on a part-time basis for some time now~

I've been cleaning up the all cats and no cattle ranch for a few years now, it's amazing how much dead wood is still around on the ground.

These clowns act as if they haven't been hiring people on a part-time basis for some time now~

The bar keeps getting lower. Pretty soon it will be 10 hrs./week and they'll be cutting employees to 9.5.

Netflix Looks a Lot More Like HBO Now - Yahoo! Finance

Netflix has just secured a big, juicy contract with Disney that gives the streamer exclusive first-dibs rights to new releases, something none of the biggest Hollywood studios have ever done before.

They may not be dead yet...

Outsider wrote:

The bar keeps getting lower. Pretty soon it will be 10 hrs./week and they'll be cutting employees to 9.5.

Can't they just make them "independent contractors" (1099 employees)?

Outsider wrote:

Darden Restaurants, owner of Red Lobster and Olive Garden, fears a backlash from customers angry about its efforts to convert more workers into part-time positions so it can avoid paying for their health care.

It's encouraging when a member of the Corporatocracy connects the dots.

"They may not be dead yet... "

We use Netflix exclusively for any TV we watch at home. The quality of their movie store has gone way, way, down over the last two years. Hopefully this will help.

Lots of them are trying. They usually get busted by the IRS. One of the local bar owners is trying it on her employees now. I figure it won't be long until it's padlocked. Big smile

//Smacks ZipperHead off the HCN merry-go-round

HomeGnome wrote:

I shoulda cleaned out the gutters today.

The days where you put-off what you should have done, are the best, in my view.

Cinco-X wrote:

They may not be dead yet...

Shares up 15% on the news.

HomeGnome wrote:

//Smacks ZipperHead off the HCN merry-go-round

Is that you you wake up the Gimp, Zed?

poicv2.0 wrote:

We use Netflix exclusively for any TV we watch at home. The quality of their movie store has gone way, way, down over the last two years. Hopefully this will help.

Ya'...I've got it too, and their streaming catalog is pretty crappy, though I've really enjoyed some of the TV programs like Supernatural, Bones, Buffy the Vampire Slayer, etc....

it's amazing how much dead wood is still around on the ground.

Dead? It's not dead, it's just in a state of rest.

Yeah, the spider just caught a coupl'a flies.

like bees when they are smoked out

Do you wear a bee suit, penguin?

Peepshow on Netflix is pretty good if you like British humor.

I don't use smoke that much with the bees. But yes on the beesuit, completely. No stings yet.

Netflix Looks a Lot More Like HBO Now

actually, HBO realized long ago that broadcasting Hollywood movies was a losing trend long-term. i'd imagine most of their subscribers are seeking original (loosely) content, not first-run movies.

A friend is an RN and she just got a job in the nearest Big Smoke, and she tells me her fellow female RN employees are into Jesus, Disney and boob jobs.

The cult of Disney in particular mystifies her, almost as important in the scheme of things as Sky Daddy, for many.

her fellow female RN employees are into Jesus, Disney and boob jobs.

not the brightest bunch? Sky Daddy is such a great term, who coined it?

Jackdawracy wrote:

her fellow female RN employees are into Jesus, Disney and boob jobs.

In the OC, by any chance?

Jackdawracy wrote:

The cult of Disney in particular mystifies her, almost as important in the scheme of things as Sky Daddy, for many.

It is a bit disheartening

There is a tv show in there somewhere.

In the CVBB, although frequent visits to the shrine in Anaheim are a given.

Netflix has some great documentaries.

Thanks! I made a giant tuna casserole for dinner and hubby is making me some turtle cookies. Party We did the party thing Saturday night so I mostly just had a normal day today.

her fellow female RN employees are into Jesus, Disney and boob jobs.

Talking about nurses, when do they siphon resources away from J6P? Mostly within each hospital bill or also through premiums?

"Maybe Dick Armey had a hint of whats coming? "

Those organizations are common enough.

But, yeah, he definitely had a "hint" of something much worse. Something so bad he didn't want his name, picture, email, security sign-in, or anything else even remotely a part of it.

Pretty extreme, if you ask me, considering all the turd-blossom stuff he's been involved in during the past 10 or so years.

So you gotta ask, what could that be, exactly? Something so much worse than has been done in the last 12 years??? Something you don't want the FBI, Secret Security Service busting in your door, hauling you off and throwin' you into prison???

Gotta go. Later, possums.

Onion Soup
Crackers + homemade pate

Heaven.

I thought you people would never shut up.

Crickets

I had to look up turtle cookies

Smile

Yeah, not actual turtles. Tongue That wouldn't be quite as tasty as pecans, caramel and chocolate chips.

What if the relocalization/in sourcing/3D printing trend is for real and threatens Chinese employment?

Dooooooooooooooom!!! Pitchforks and Torches Hu Knows Pitchforks and Torches Dooooooooooooooom!!!

The de-maquiladorization of a quarter-billion or so angry recent pig farmers?

Krugman advocates hanging wall street banksters:

Noose Hour - NYTimes.com
.
.
.
.
.
.
/jk

an acerbic little bugger isn't he.

The dark side of our local cult. Not everyone can be a Brentwood home flipper with style and grace.

"a real plan?".

Less credibility than even fox-head hacks on the other side.

I honestly can't think of a sitting ivy academic that has been a more brazen hack in all history.

The tortoise lays on its back, its belly baking in the hot sun, beating its legs trying to turn itself over, but it can't.
Not without your help.
But you're not helping.

greenchutes wrote:

de-maquiladorization of a quarter-billion or so angry recent pig farmers

so what did your think of "occupy hoocoodanode":

FDIC reports Fewer Problem banks, Total REO Declines in Q3 | Hoocoodanode?

And in memoriam. Twenty years.

Who would that be?

This comment: Is it me or is the base player Clark Kent? Laughing out loud

greenchutes wrote:

I honestly can't think of a sitting ivy academic that has been a more brazen hack

And I bet you really would not like dean baker.

McCarran passenger traffic down slightly in October
http://cms.mccarran.com/dsweb/Get/Document-341775

1.5% fewer people went to vegas in oct 2012 vs 2011. i'd like to see the load factor stats. flights there have been painfully tight.

pop quiz: how many of you have purchased a plane ticket to babysit somebody's pets? i'm constantly meeting people who are doing this.

poicv2.0 wrote:

how are the elders going to be able to lord it over the FF's of the world?

FF will take anything she can get for free. Game the system is the Name of Her Game.

Jackdawracy wrote:

her fellow female RN employees are into Jesus, Disney and boob jobs.

You say that like it's a bad thing... Puzzled

I honestly can't think of a sitting ivy academic that has been a more brazen hack

c'mon, Mankiw...

how are the elders going to be able to lord it over the FF's of the world?

why do they even have to lord over anybody else but themselves?

FF will take anything she can get for free. Game the system is the Name of Her Game.

for free? not really, nowadays those who don't sell all their best waking hours of their lives in exchange for the chance to catch up with the Jones on housing and cars are called names. we just realize it's not worth it before the fact, that's all.

c'mon, Mankiw

pfpfpfppfffffffffff

greenchutes wrote:

I honestly can't think of a sitting ivy academic that has been a more brazen hack in all history.

Noam Chomsky?

HomeGnome wrote:

But you're not helping.

I helped a snake get out of a really deep, concrete irrigation ditch. Then I had to have help getting out with the snake.
Took it to a near by field and let it go.
Smile

A new life awaits you in the Off-world colonies!
A chance to begin again in a golden land of opportunity and adventure!

Finance_Fan wrote:

» How I live on $7,000 per year Early Retirement Extreme: — a combination of simple living, anticonsumerism, DIY ethics, self-reliance, and applied capitalism

hard time believing this, he does say 14,000 for a couple. Would like to see a budget table of actual expenses for one year, like dwelling,food, energy, clothing,utilities,insurance,transportation etc.

No tears here.

Happy for the time, experiences, and knowing.

Yeah, same here. I see some vague suggestions but not any hard numbers or a budget.

This announcement is brought to you by the Shimato Dominguez Corporation - helping America into the New World.

arthur_dent wrote:

dwelling,food, energy, clothing,utilities,insurance,transportation etc

Rent a room from someone.
Veg diet.
Rent for the room includes utilities.
Clothes from the thrift store.
No car, no insurance. Bum rides from the room mate.

The bitch, the son's ex, was into Disney. I never understood it.

Never saw Blade Runner. Worth seeing?

bbl

gotta pack

early flight

josap wrote:

Rent a room from someone.

maybe a closet, care to mention a real figure. My guess is that for most people property taxes for someplace with schools etc run from 3000 and up /yr.

hard time believing this, he does say 14,000 for a couple. Would like to see a budget table of actual expenses for one year, like dwelling,food, energy, clothing,utilities,insurance,transportation etc.

no kidding, and he says he also has health insurance and take this: in SF!??

Outsider its a choice to cry and remember or rejoice in the time lived. I choose to rejoice. It works for me.

Outsider wrote:

Never saw Blade Runner. Worth seeing?

Kind of like The Big Lebowski, in that it is hard to follow the story, unless you have seen it before. But upon repeat viewing, is brilliant.

Outsider wrote:

Never saw Blade Runner. Worth seeing?

New Keyboard
Blade Runner - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia 

  • Sight & Sound-top 100 films -
  • -IGN Top 25 Sci-Fi Movies of All Time-
  • Total Film 100 Greatest Movies of All Time-
  • -New Scientist All-time favorite science fiction film (readers and staff)
  • Empire The 500 Greatest Movies of All Time
  • American Film Institute (AFI) Top 10 Sci-fi Films of All Time
  • Total Film's Editors 100 Greatest Movies of All Time
  • Time Magazine's Critics "All-TIME" 100 Best Movies
  • The Guardian, Scientists Top 10 Sci-fi Films of All Time
  • Entertainment Weekly The Top 50 Cult Movies

I liked Blade Runner, but that was a long time ago.

Outsider wrote:

Never saw Blade Runner. Worth seeing?

classic if you like hard-guy/scifi type of films. A common morality tale about what or who has a soul. Some think Blade Runner set the tone and style for the next decade or more of science fiction movies.

arthur_dent wrote:

property taxes for someplace with schools etc run from 3000 and up /yr.

The trick there, is to live somewhere without schools...

Yeah Barley, I edited, thought you left.

Top 5 all time.

Of course, like other denizens of my top 5, Chinatown, sunset blvd, etc, I'm biased, it is set in my town.

The trick there, is to live somewhere without schools...

» Day 1: Finding a place to live Early Retirement Extreme: — a combination of simple living, anticonsumerism, DIY ethics, self-reliance, and applied capitalism

Again, unless you enjoy spending money on a large home and the things that come along with it, a home is basically only a place where you sleep and keep your stuff (more on that later). Realize that you could in principle choose between having no kitchen and paying, say $400, more per month. Those $400 could be spent on eating out every day. Now this is not a realistic example, but consider a that an extra bedroom might add $200 a month to the rent.

To become financially independent of a $200/month expense requires investments between $60000 and $80000 (see here why). This is the so-called latte-effect at the large scale expect that instead of a daily superfluous cup of luxury coffee, we are talking about a superfluous bed or bathroom that is rarely used. How many years will it take you to save this much more money?

I think that a good guideline per person for living arrangements is $200-300/month/person. In some places this buys more than other places. As far as I am concerned, the number is absolute. If I want to live in a “nicer place” it simply translates into a (much) smaller place and vice versa.

When I started out, I was paying about $275/month for a small room with a sink (I shared the kitchen, toilets, and showers with 18 other people). This was close to downtown of one of the more expensive cities in the world. When I moved out of that place, I moved into my very own apartment for $400/month. Then I moved together with DW for $330/person/month. We then made the mistake of moving into a house at $700/person/month. That lasted a year with stagnating savings as a result. We currently live at $237/person/month.

Have to vent!!!

Another wonderful day trying to get ATT to correct their error when we canceled service to Donner Lake. Instead of just canceling that service, as they were told over and over that it was the only service we wanted canceled, they canceled all of our services and then wanted to charge us to re-establish service. LL says that BofA must die and we say ATT must die!!! I hope The Goog and Apple, who have a ton of money, and figure out a way to destroy them both.

How many questions?

Twenty, thirty, cross-referenced.

"More human than human" is our motto.

Steve

Saw the edit Outsider

Smile

I have decided to wear a wrinkled shirt tomorrow am

Big smile

*The bitch, the son's ex, was into Disney. I never understood it. *

Knock me over with a feather.

Finance_Fan wrote:

I shared the kitchen, toilets, and showers with 18 other people

sounds delightful!

Finance_Fan wrote:

a home is basically only a place where you sleep and keep your stuff

He is way wrong on that score.
Home is where friends and family gather. (30 people in the house and you need two bathrooms)
Home is where you build a peacefull / happy / restfull place.
Home is where you have room for your sister to visit and spend a few nights.

I couldn't live like this guy. I wouldn't really call it living.

I shared the kitchen, toilets, and showers with 18 other people
sounds delightful!

LOL talk about a tight community, this guys really cares about retiring early. he did it at 35, quite remarkable.

Home is where friends and family gather. (30 people in the house and you need two bathrooms)

why 30 people!? why not go to another place when such a number gathers? i know of gatherings of that size among the religious, those who have +4 kids each do need more space. i don't really enjoy the idea of having 30 people at home anyway, it's a ton of work for the hosts. restaurants are better for that.

now, walking closets and 2 bathrooms are key to me when kids are young.

Home is where you have room for your sister to visit and spend a few nights.

for visiting people there's Airbnb, or the sleeping distribution can adapt to those few days. i doubt there's the need for extra room for visitors, sounds to me like a housing bubble thing (like the granite counter-tops).

HomeGnome wrote:

Twenty, thirty, cross-referenced.

My mother? Let me tell you about my mother...

Finance_Fan wrote:

why 30 people!? why not go to another place when such a number gathers?

Monthly "Happy Hour" at our house. Been doing it for 20+ yrs.
Conversation, people bring food to put on the table and share.
Bring what you want to drink, cheaper than a bar. And you can hear people talk, which in a bar on Fri eve is just about impossible.

It's called community. Long term friends. Social gathering.

Finance_Fan wrote:

this guys really cares about retiring early

yeah, well, so do i. 15% in the 401k. ira maxed out every year. undisclosed amount of gold and silver holdings. i'm not sharing a shitter with 17 other people. i'd rather keep working than clean up after that many people.

emergency hotdog wrote:

i'm not sharing a shitter with 17 other people.

Oh, I Love Trash!

emergency wrote

i'm not sharing a shitter with 17 other people

Ever been on a long haul 17 hour flight? Then again thats temp. on a permanent basis yuch!

Barry, you want the economic activity that will come when boomers spend more (they have the bulk of disposable)?

Quit threatening SS & Medicare with cuts.

It's called community. Long term friends. Social gathering.

not so true, w/out those gatherings taking place at your home you could also achieve what's called community.

Men don't think about "home" like women do. My husband could have lived out of a box and found it adequate.

A box with dsl within Does the FDIC Order Anchovies? delivery range. Walking distance to a liquor store helps, too.

yeah, well, so do i. 15% in the 401k. ira maxed out every year. undisclosed amount of gold and silver holdings. i'm not sharing a shitter with 17 other people. i'd rather keep working than clean up after that many people.

of course we are doing that too. nobody who plans on retiring early doesn't do those. he did explain on that link that he shared when he was a student. it's not how he lives now with his family

but this guy is smart enough to be able to realize that the 1st residency is a money pitt and that the trade-off for retiring early (hence needing healthy savings rates) is not to waste $ on housing. some are learning this the hard way, but not many realized of this pre-crash.

Barry, you want the economic activity that will come when boomers spend more (they have the bulk of disposable)?

few care about what the boomers will do. most just take for granted they will spend cause it's what they are good at.

prairiedog wrote

My husband could have lived out of a box and found it adequate

You need to buy him gift cards for Lowes, HomeDepot, Lee Valley and a few other places to spur the imagination.

Urban-Rural Divide Splitting America - Business Insider

" Every one of Texas' major cities — Austin, Dallas, Houston, and San Antonio — voted Democratic in 2012, the second consecutive presidential election in which they've done so."

Ouch!

prairiedog wrote:

Men don't think about "home" like women do. My husband could have lived out of a box and found it adequate.

Nesting instinct?

The split that divides almost every household over the holidays: greensleeves/whose child with a sharp or natural fifth note (Dorian or minor/aeolian)?

Santa

josap wrote:

Monthly "Happy Hour" at our house. Been doing it for 20+ yrs.
Conversation, people bring food to put on the table and share.
Bring what you want to drink, cheaper than a bar. And you can hear people talk, which in a bar on Fri eve is just about impossible.

Have to agree with all these points. We host - well, maybe not 30 people, but often 15-20 - at our house on a regular basis. Regular enough that I couldn't begin to imagine the expense involved if we were doing it at restaurants. (To say nothing of the 10 or 12 kids that are usually running around as part and parcel.)

However - playing devil's advocate here - if it's a once or twice a month thing you're talking about, and planned well enough in advance, you'd be shocked at how cheap it can be to rent a local gathering place for a few evening hours. Community centers, VFW halls, things like that. Kinda the best of both worlds there - plenty of space to spread out and socialize without the extra few hundred square feet in your house ... or the bar bills, or decibel levels.

Finance_Fan wrote:

w/out those gatherings taking place at your home you could also achieve what's called community

Not as easily or as well.
The youngest person at last happy hour was 11. The oldest was 87.
My best friend comes, with her daughter and the daughter's kids.

Sometimes there are 12 people, sometimes 50. People show up just about every month and some get here twice a year.
It's very informal and full of good conversation. And with enough people, if you don't like one topic you just move to another group of people who might be talking about something interesting to you.

One of my friends daughter has a small child (age 3)- now the age at which I met my friend's daughter.

BarleyReturns wrote:

17 hour flight?

woof! never done that. 17 hours = pill + 3 tanqueray and tonics.

However - playing devil's advocate here - if it's a once or twice a month thing you're talking about, and planned well enough in advance, you'd be shocked at how cheap it can be to rent a local gathering place for a few evening hours. Community centers, VFW halls, things like that. Kinda the best of both worlds there - plenty of space to spread out and socialize without the extra few hundred square feet in your house ... or the bar bills, or decibel levels.

there's no need at all to do those things on the same place each single time either. i remember those type of things being organized when i was a kid. it was a ton of work for the host to do. i prefer the host to enjoy herself instead of working that much.

prairiedog wrote:

Men don't think about "home" like women do.

I am quite sure that Nate Berkus would disagree.

Not as easily or as well.

well, sorry about that if there's no other way. it means you will retire later though, but it's a choice.

Men don't think about "home" like women do.
I am quite sure that Nate Berkus would disagree.

so true! that guy... spends every waking hour decorating his nest. kind of funny how he likes to bring "nature into the house". whatever branch he sees, the puts against the wall. LOL

Finance_Fan wrote:

it was a ton of work for the host to do.

Guess it doesn't seem like work to me.
It does add a great deal of enjoyment to my life.

emergency hotdog wrote:

17 hour flight?
woof! never done that. 17 hours = pill + 3 tanqueray and tonics.

LAX to Sydney (for our honeymoon). Then, some time later, Newark to Shanghai. Both non-stop. 19 hours each.

In the words of Drew Carey, "Don't go if ya never been."

Off to hang out with the hubby for awhile. Full of cookies and milk now. Nytol

REBear wrote:

US Mint Gold Coins Sales Highest Since July 2010 | Gold News

Not surprised. Lotsa talk about means testing again.

Well, the ISM data is ugly. There's no way to put a happy face on it.

And only $50! Check out the coins themselves!

What a deal.

Surely, seasonal sandy-related hedonics explain it all. Or Greece.

» Day 7: Going car free Early Retirement Extreme: — a combination of simple living, anticonsumerism, DIY ethics, self-reliance, and applied capitalism

The average American spends 18% on his income on transportation.

That is 0.18×12=2.1 months a year of work. That is a lot of time that could conceivably be used for something better.

Assume he also spends an hour daily in his car commuting, then that is 250 hours a year, assuming 250 working days. That is 1/8 of the working day on top of the working day. Hence, that is 12/8 = 1.5 month in addition.

3.6 months per year on cars... doesn't that number seem too much?

"all you really need to know is that if something is done only by men, it probably isn’t particularly sensible."
Is Stock-Picking Just Another Hobby For Men? - Seeking Alpha

I'm repeating myself, I know, but I think a downturn started several months ago.

I haven't seen anything that would cause me to change my opinion, even though housing turned out to be a little stronger than I thought it would be.

Finance_Fan wrote:

Day 7: Going car free Early Retirement Extreme: — a combination of simple living, anticonsumerism, DIY ethics, self-reliance, and applied capitalism

Not to mention your increased chances of being seriously injured or killed.

mp wrote:

I haven't seen anything that would cause me to change my opinion,

Well naturally.

I'm repeating myself, I know, but I think a downturn started several months ago.

yes, we know all relevant data peaked in july and observing housing as a downturn indicator is a rookie mistake

Not to mention your increased chances of being seriously injured or killed.

check the energy level of this guy!

"@Janette – Five inches is walkable .. and the diehards here say it’s cyclable (is that a word?) as well. For longer distances you could always rent a car? I forgot to mention that option; compared to full-time ownership renting is fairly inexpensive. I’d never lease though."

Josap and Ff are both happy with their choices, a seat for every ass.

mp wrote:

housing turned out to be a little stronger than I thought it would be.

Other than housing prices up and some new builds, not much here.
Wages are not going up and the new jobs are at lower wages then before.
Far too many part time jobs and not near enough full time jobs.

Finance_Fan wrote:

observing housing as a downturn indicator is a rookie mistake

I wouldn't say that.

Josap and Ff are both happy with their choices, a seat for every ass.

maybe Josap. I'm getting to know that i could be doing way much better! the savings rates of the blogger and the people who follow him are so humbling! i was happy with out 35%

lawyerliz wrote:

Josap and Ff are both happy with their choices

True, so neither of us is about to change. Big smile

Ok, FF is going to get more obsessive about and saving more. I just think there should be a balance.

observing housing as a downturn indicator is a rookie mistake
I wouldn't say that.

you should, lagging lagging indicator as there could be one.

Finance_Fan wrote:

For longer distances you could always rent a car?

Like people who circle parking lots for the closest space?

Cars are a liability. [full-stop]

Finance_Fan wrote:

you should, lagging lagging indicator as there could be one.

Historically speaking, residential is a leading indicator.

mp wrote:

residential is a leading indicator.

Not this time.

mp wrote:

I think a downturn started several months ago.

my brain cell is busy scratching itself right now but... downturns are always happening. so are upturns. i fly a lot. i think things are getting better. times are good but it's just different than it used to be. my hunch says we are in for a slow (generally upward) grind for a long time. long time = 10ish years.

Cars are a liability. [full-stop]

so true! dh stopped me just before making that mistake. and thanks to zipcar and rental car companies that are all around us... why on earth did i think we would benefit from owning such money pit?

emergency hotdog wrote:

slow (generally upward) grind for a long time. long time = 10ish years.

How long until unemployment is low? or are paid enough to have SNAP use go way down?

emergency hotdog wrote:

my hunch says we are in for a slow (generally upward) grind for a long time. long time = 10ish years.

I don't have any problem with that view; it all depends on your context.

If you're using the data, as I do, to make short run forecasts of your own results, then these swings are important. If you're not, then the swings are just so many meaningless blips along the way.

But, yeah, generally speaking, a lot of damage was done to the economy and it's still going to take several years to repair it.

Finance_Fan wrote:

and thanks to zipcar and rental car companies that are all around us...

How much, on average, do you spend a month for car rentals, zipcar, bus, train, subway?
How does your husband get to work each day?

emergency hotdog wrote:

i fly a lot. i think things are getting better.

You must not fly United.

United merged with Continental.

I think that their plan for combining the airlines involved making a list of the worse aspects of each airline and making certain that the badness was retained and amplified.

NW

Finance_Fan wrote:

3.6 months per year on cars... doesn't that number seem too much?
But i love the smell and feel of real Corinthian leather....

NorkaWest wrote:

You must not fly United.

United merged with Continental.

I think that their plan for combining the airlines involved making a list of the worse aspects of each airline and making certain that the badness was retained and amplified.

It's like one of those unrefrigerated Midwestern casseroles with mayonnaise, left out at the potluck for four hours or so to ferment.

how low is low?
SNAP is being abused. ridiculously abused. i have anecdotes. my anecdotes are not conclusive evidence of abuse, i know. answer to your question: SNAP use will never go away.

p.s. stop saving snakes. they're gross.

robj wrote:

It's like one of those unrefrigerated Midwestern casseroles with mayonnaise, left out at the potluck for four hours or so to ferment.

Wait until Delta gets Virgin. I'm sad... Sad

Ok, FF is going to get more obsessive about and saving more. I just think there should be a balance.

we are just starting out really, so avoiding the 2 biggest money pits (housing and cars) isn't too shabby, but i do get the feeling we kind of relax on those 2 successes too much.

i think we nailed it with the high deductible plan when it comes to health care, now that HSA is growing nicely. we had to stop wasting $ there as it wasn't contributing to an increase in our health.

but there's still room to optimize when it comes to food/diet i think. i'll work a little more around it so that we also get time and health improvements at the same time. already made a ton of pantry space on the walking closet next to the kitchen. figured out the best way to use the space, what should be sourced from Amazon, what from Trader Joe's and the like... Need to keep at it a little more.

and fresh herbs we grow ourselves, all those little things add up to quality of life. the less tempted we are to do take outs / restaurants frequently, the better for our health.

Hey, FF, one question, if I may...After all this effort to save money to retire early, what then do you do with 7/24/365? ie, what is the purpose of all this effort? What then?

How much, on average, do you spend a month for car rentals, zipcar, bus, train, subway?

very very little. on top on not needing daily transportation, we are not afraid to walk. "the city as the gym", that's us, we don't take a cab to avoid walking 10 blocks. i highly recommend walkable areas as a way not to save money, but to increase quality of life. if you keep on moving, you will keep yourself healthy and set a great example for you kids.

How does your husband get to work each day?

the ideal way! walking across one of the most beautiful parks i've ever seen. i highly recommend that, a 10-15 min walk does wonders each way. he's very smart, he opted for his previous location by making sure each day he'll put on at least a 30' walk. i highly recommend walking as the daily physical activity. your joints will feel the difference long term.

Hey, FF, one question, if I may...After all this effort to save money to retire early, what then do you do with 7/24/365? ie, what is the purpose of all this effort? What then?

i'm already retired, being a double-income hh in the coasts w/ kiddos doesn't really pay. my dh would like to retire too, the effort is for him, not me. i LOVE to own my time and love managing my own portfolio. but your point is well taken, i'm trying to get dh to get interests outside of work, hobbies, so that it makes the transition easier. he'd love to travel once retired.

Have a good evening.

FF:

Jacob's lentil soup recipe sucks big time. 'Course if'n you have no taste buds, it might be OK.

Just sayin'.

mp wrote:

But, yeah, generally speaking, a lot of damage was done to the economy and it's still going to take several years to repair it.

IMO, we'll never really "repair" it. We've got a new normal taking shape.

Climate change will continue punching us in the gut, harder and more frequently, leading to increasing costs or recovery and prevention investments-- the drought appears to have been more expensive than the hurricane, for example.

Shrinking net energy per capita (especially in the oil export markets) will constrain growth.

Shortages of critical resources will constrain any transition to a new energy regime, as well as other production.. got phosphate?

Pollution continues to accumulate and wreak havoc in the biosphere-- we're undergoing a mass extinction already, and it will worsen.

And, finally, political resistance will constrain efforts to adapt, while the WOT drains blood and treasure from the future.

I'm sympathetic to the demand gap, but, overall, does it really seem we (currently) have a shortage of stuff? Or, rather, is it a distribution problem?

We need to resolve the distribution (and production) problem before the shortages really start to bite.

JMO.

FF, I think he will need more than hobbies...I am thinking, people need a purpose, a goal, something to motivate and direct actions.
jus saying...

On Monday, the Republican Steering Committee, which is chaired by House Speaker John Boehner (R-Ohio), voted to remove Reps. Justin Amash (R-Mich.) and Tim Huelskamp (R-Kansas) from the House Budget Commtitee. Reps. David Schweikert (R-Ariz.) and Walter Jones (R-N.C.) lost their positions on the Financial Services Committee.

Green Shoots

so Boehner is doing a little House cleaning - well, it's about time

can't have idealists on these committees and expect to get anything accomplished, except obstruction

got to give the man some props for spending a little of his political capital

oji. You took the words right out of my mouth.

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