Given the number of skilled unemployed and the number of employed working under their skill level this is no longer measuring actual jobs missing a match in the work force.
And so it’s easy to see, I think, how economists become convinced of things that the rest of us aren’t sure of at all — and how the economists often end up being wrong, while the rest of us were right to be dubious.
More than half of total employment is by businesses employing over 500 people.
Lot of people at 100-500 employee corps also.
IIRC, under 500 employees is considered small business by the SBA. In fact, you'd be hard pressed to get a standard SBA loan for a company of under 125, though new programs of micro-business loans have been instituted since I last looked at these back in the '90s....
And even if half of total employment is with companies over 500 people, how much of "new employment" is with those companies? I think you'll find that the staff of medium-large firms is rather stagnant, so if you don't already have a job with one of them, you likely won't be getting one soon...
And so it’s easy to see, I think, how economists become convinced of things that the rest of us aren’t sure of at all — and how the economists often end up being wrong, while the rest of us were right to be dubious.
Anybody can be wrong. It takes an economist to be precisely wrong.
but will receive his munificent salary (everyone should have such--and apparently unbreakable--employment contracts)
"He said Barclays had complied with the FSA's investigation, and once it became clear that some of the bank's traders had been fixing Libor submissions, it paid the £290m fine imposed by regulators and decided that four senior executives should give up their bonuses.
Only once the public's anger became clear, he said, did he decide further action, in the form of his resignation, was needed.
Diamond nobly "gives up" his bonus, but will receive his munificent salary (everyone should have such--and apparently unbreakable--employment contracts)
I wonder: what's the quid pro quo? Since he's not fighting for his money--and he seems like the type who would--is there something else going on?
"Go quietly, Mr. Diamond, and we won't prosecute?"
Until the stigma of having been long term unemployed is removed it won't matter how many job openings are available if only available to those currently employed.
BRUSSELS, July 10 (Reuters) - "Euro zone ministers agreed early on Tuesday to grant Spain an extra year until 2014 to reach its deficit reduction targets in exchange for further budget savings and set the parameters of an aid package for Madrid's ailing banks.
The decisions were aimed at preventing the currency area's fourth largest economy, mired in a worsening recession, from needing a full state bailout which would stretch the limits of Europe's rescue fund and plunge it deeper into a debt crisis."
DIamond: remember that cute number you hooked up with down in the hotel bar last time you were here looking at the books? She had a video camera in her bustier. MY camera... Savvy?
ACHUTHAN: The US Is In Recession Already - Business Insider
Well, he's not just grasping at straws now, he just flat-out didn't update his data.
Achuthan: "When you look at the data today, you see industrial production is off of its April high. Manufacturing and trade sales – much broader than retail sales – is off of its December high."
Real manufacturing and trade sales made a new December (2011) high, and didn't surpass it in January (2012), February or March, just as he said.
Then in April it popped-up and made another new recovery high.
My former employer, when they were doing reductions, created as many openings as there were going to be reduced positions while telling the unfortunate that they could apply for those positions, but they were sham openings only to keep the layoffs optimistic until they were finally out the door.
It's much easier to find a job when you have one, and so the job having statement becomes tautological in that case. Even still, there are a few of us who have been looking for new jobs, and the process is a real pain. Even when you have a decent shot, it takes months to work through the application process. If you happen to be out of work, you're not getting paid for six months of HR hemming and hawing.
And even if half of total employment is with companies over 500 people, how much of "new employment" is with those companies? I think you'll find that the staff of medium-large firms is rather stagnant, so if you don't already have a job with one of them, you likely won't be getting one soon...
Hmm, Birch's results from several decades ago claimed that - he claimed 80% I think.
The result appears to have been somewhat misleading, with small business not so much generating a lot of new employment
as having a lot of churn - since they fail a lot they fire a lot of people, and they tend to have a lot of turnover when they stay in business.
Someone working a few months at a McD's shift, or at a single proprietor restaurant that fails is not the same as a medium sized growing business taking someone on for a multi-year career with promotion prospects, benefits etc.
You would need 20 positions lasting 6 months to make up for one long term hire lasting 10 years.
Same employment duration, different hiring rates.
You can't just compare the rate in determining importance of sectors in employment.
they were sham openings only to keep the layoffs optimistic until they were finally out the door.
They also do some shenanigans when applying for H1-B visa allotments. Look at all these unfilled openings for which we can not find qualified applicants...
I'd also throw in the job openings that are added after they already know who they will hire, usually someone internal. The net jobs created is zero, because the vacated position is usually not filled.
I grant you he is a smarmy as they come, particularly with regard to the entertainment industry and FIRE, but I am able to draw a few distinctions between him and his successor. The complete gutting of any regulation or anti-trust enforcement, being a key one in my view.
They also do some shenanigans when applying for H1-B visa allotments. Look at all these unfilled openings for which we can not find qualified applicants...
We can't seem to find any applicants with 7 years' worth of experience with Office 2007.
half of total employment is by businesses employing over 500 people.
For those that file employment data sure. Is 500 the median?
The data on employment includes large enough a fraction of the population that the error can't be more than about 10%,
there just aren't enough adults of working age in the US to be uncounted to shift the statistics substantially
Perhaps there might be concern with other industry reported data being manipulated? How accurate has NAR data been historically...
Jefferies was the clearing bank for PFGBest. On Monday the NFA said there were substantial discrepancies between what PFGBest had reported to regulators in customer accounts and the actual amounts. The NFA said PFGBest founder Russell Wasendorf Sr. "may have falsified bank records."
there just aren't enough adults of working age in the US to be uncounted to shift the statistics substantially
How are folks working 2 part-time or full-time jobs counted? Could altering that methodology affect the data? What about the variability in undocumented workers? Nail salons and housekeeper/babysitters well represented, or not? Of course I'm sure that mark to market is just as accurate as mark to maturity...
Hmm, Birch's results from several decades ago claimed that - he claimed 80% I think.
I doubt that's applicable today. Unions were more powerful then and outsourcing hadn't really taken hold. Many of the big companies of that era are either much smaller now or non-existent. Here in MA, Wang and Digital (DEC) are gone, but no major job growth engines have come along to replace them. Many of the spinoffs from networking, HD drives, etc. are now gone or shadows of their former selves.
Genzyme and some other tech companies have shown some growth, but they seem to be a capital intensive and there are relatively few jobs created given the total investment. They do tend to be better paying jobs, but there aren't that many of them...
"The Friedman Unit, or simply Friedman, is a tongue-in-cheek neologism coined by blogger Atrios (Duncan Black) on May 21, 2006. One Friedman Unit is equal to six months, specifically the "next six months", a period repeatedly declared by New York Times columnist Thomas Friedman to be the most critical of the then-ongoing Iraq War even though such pronouncements extended back over two and a half years."
It bears some resemblance to the "second half recovery" over here.
Jobs openings increased in May to 3.642 million, up from 3.447 million in April. The number of job openings (yellow) has generally been trending up, and openings are up about 18% year-over-year compared to May 2011.
Everywhere I go recently there are quite a few openings - but almost all are in narrow highly skilled areas and very few or none are in anything remotely resembling 'entry level'. Even for supposedly trained workers.
If there is one area where the job market is totally broken it is here - I don't see how we are going to get the skilled workers of the future if there is no incentive to hire relatively weak skilled entry level workers today. None.
If there is a place for a WPA-like program THAT would be it.
So basically, America has been stagnant since JFK took office...I call BS...
So do I. I get it there is a problem sharing the benefits of productivity but stagnation in aggregate hasn't been the problem.
I hate it when guys exaggerate shit just to make their point. It weakens their argument and makes them look silly. I mostly agree with a lot of Stiglitz concerns but that was just silly.
I still don't understand why employers supposedly so desparate for skilled workers won't hire and train some. From a business standpoint, it doesn't make sense. My guess is that this has as much to do about hiring skilled workers at the prices employers want. Employers need to respond to the market by either paying alot more money for these workers, or maybe (and I'm going out on a limb here) train them (gasp).
If there is a place for a WPA-like program THAT would be it.
Back in the 70s there was a program to address that called SETA (it probably spanned a much longer period, but I know I got one of those jobs out of HS) where the government sponsored jobs that were supposed to provide experience for young workers so that they could get past the entry level barrier. My recollection is that the results were never very successful, but it was a nice bit of pork so the programs lasted...
OT but here is the reply from my urban planner friend in the Washington, DC area.
I don't really have advice for the modular housing contact. There are a lot of would be players in this area, but it is true that beyond the issue of general perception by the public, local regulations (planning, zoning, building) are the major issue stymying potential builders/developers. Because of the diversity of local regulations and particulars of local politics, change in this area will be very slow. This is particularly true now that housing is more affordable than it has been in decades (thereby removing the economic incentive to reduce housing costs through increased density and technological improvements), which by the way is the reason that my consulting business in the area of affordable housing has been dead for nearly four years now.
I hate it when guys exaggerate shit just to make their point. It weakens their argument and makes them look silly. I mostly agree with a lot of Stiglitz concerns but that was just silly.
So basically, America has been stagnant since JFK took office...I call BS...
You actually read the quote, right, and not just the headline?
"If you look at the income of the typical male worker in the United States today, it's the same as it was in 1968. Almost half a century of stagnation," Stiglitz argues."
I still don't understand why employers supposedly so desparate for skilled workers won't hire and train some.
They would if they could enslave them for say five years after the training.
The problem is you train them for your competitors. Or you have to compensate them so much more to keep them from being stolen by your competition. So in effect they pay twice. They pay to train them then pay more to keep them so that the economic benefit isn't there.
And in this 'deflationary' climate they can't just raise prices to overcome those added costs.
Faced with that many just decide to not expand. Even with plenty of inquiries and RFP opportunities they turn away business instead. I have done that with companies I work with. Tell potential customers we can't get workforce at a pay scale that would allow us to bid competitively. So we don't bid.
It looks like the IAM (Machinist union) runs apprenticeship programs in conjunction with employers like Boeing. Of course, if the union is verboten, and the employer wants to avoid training cost as well, it is unclear where trained worker recruitment is going to come from other than industrial cannibalism.
1980 to 2000 was one of the steepest innovation periods in world history. It was anything but stagnant. Its just a matter of who received the benefit of that innovation.
Also - if you asked Chinese or other SE Asians they would look at Stiglitz remarks and laugh.
The dual hearings on sequestration come as Republicans are making a concerted effort to attract public attention to the defense cuts and press the Obama administration to explain what impact the cuts would have. At the same time, defense industry leaders are warning about layoffs from the cuts and threatening to send out mass layoff notices just days before the November election.
McKeon and other Republicans have hammered the Obama administration for not doling out details about sequestration, the $500 billion in automatic cuts to both defense and non-defense spending set to hit on January 2.
The Pentagon has said it’s not yet begun planning for sequestration under instructions from OMB, and OMB officials have called on Congress to reverse the sequestration cuts with alternate deficit reduction.
...
Most Democrats and Republicans, as well as the Obama administration, want the $1 trillion in sequestration cuts to be reversed, but the two parties disagree on how the alternate deficit reduction to replace the cuts should be attained.
I was referring to wages and quality of life not innovation. Yeah, we did lots of innovating in order to increase productivity in order to enrich the already filthy rich. So I guess that passes for progress nowadays...or something.
They would if they could enslave them for say five years after the training.
Who says they can't? Offer five year contracts with the training benefit amortized over its lifetime. The worker gets added money in exchange for the employer option.
Since I was born a bit before this period of stagnation began, I've been able to see all of it and be pretty cognizant of most of it. I've seen computers go from room size to pocket size, man land on the moon, and all sorts of other major advances. Leukemia and many other lymphomas were once death sentences, but many are now readily curable, and there have been many other advances in medicine and science. When I was born were had only recently become aware of the double helix nature of DNA and how it functioned, but now we've mapped the entire human genome. The list could go on and on, but I don't think I'll bother with you.
I still don't understand why employers supposedly so desparate for skilled workers won't hire and train some. From a business standpoint, it doesn't make sense.
Premise: Since laying off 10% of my workforce, in 2009 my profits have doubled.
I'm selling less, but making more.
My options now are:
A) Hire more people (expecting to return to selling more, but making lower profits)
B) Maintain current work force (and continue making the largest profits in my company history)
The problem is the (mistaken) belief that having extra money BY ITSELF is incentive to hire more workers.
You add employees in only two cases: First is you MUST. In other words, you have more demand than your current workforce can meet AND you have competition that can meet that excess demand if you do not.
Second is "pre-emptive" -- you "believe" that demand is going to be increasing and you do not want to late in getting to market to get your piece of the pie.
The unspoken reality about business is "lacking competition", it is in the best interest of the business owner to NOT increase supply. If you keep supply down, price (and profit go up). If you have 'limited' competition, then collusive structuring, (we ALL agree to keep supply down), means greater profits for all WITN NO EXTRA WORK - (or workers).
1980 to 2000 was one of the steepest innovation periods in world history. It was anything but stagnant. Its just a matter of who received the benefit of that innovation.
Also - if you asked Chinese or other SE Asians they would look at Stiglitz remarks and laugh.
Despite our political differences, you are one of the commenters here that I respect the most. I have a hard time taking some of these other folks seriously...
So basically, America has been stagnant since JFK took office...I call BS...
So do I. I get it there is a problem sharing the benefits of productivity but stagnation in aggregate hasn't been the problem.
i call BS on your BS. stiglitz did not say that america has been stagnant since 1968. he said that the wage of the average american male is about the same as in 1968. i suspect that on an inflation-adjusted basis that this might be correct. labor force participation, debt, and hedonics may have give americans a semblance of having more but there is more to life than ipads and large screen teevees.
It looks like the IAM (Machinist union) runs apprenticeship programs in conjunction with employers like Boeing. Of course, if the union is verboten, and the employer wants to avoid training cost as well, it is unclear where trained worker recruitment is going to come from other than industrial cannibalism.
They still need a lot of on the job training - real work experience and you only get that at the work sight.
What is really perverse is that those going through the IAM training aren't obliged to remain union members. If they so decide they can go to work for a non union shop at anytime. And frankly - if the nonunion shop pays well and treats workers well they rarely push to form a union. I have seen defeated unionization efforts fail over and over even in regions with strong union support. The reason? Workers don't want to pay union dues if they don't feel they have to. That is just fact. But if the employers kicks them around our is cheap they will pay those dues in a heartbeat.
Companies get the unions they deserve. They don't fall from the sky like snow - they are 'earned'.
"If you look at the income of the typical male worker in the United States today, it's the same as it was in 1968. Almost half a century of stagnation," Stiglitz argues."
This does not strike me as particularly wrong.
This totally ignores two things- non-wage compensation, and what the basket of consumables for that income actually is.
Around here in Charlotte, they lay you off then if you are good, they suggest you reapply for a job (at the same employer) and offer you half your previous salary...
Who says they can't? Offer five year contracts with the training benefit amortized over its lifetime. The worker gets added money in exchange for the employer option.
Except that is the problem - they don't want to pay them more. You could always do that anyway without a contract - just out bid those who want to now steal your increasingly productive workers. You lose the contract you were training them to do.
The only way training pays is if you decide to pay the expense of training them THEN get them for an extended period of time at a lower cost to pay back the cost of the training. Or raise prices on your products if the market will bear the increase [currently won't].
So the rational thing to do is do minimal training [super short payback] and pay people less and just walk away from orders - instead of taking a bunch more orders and losing money on them.
I get it - I would do the same thing. I would not go into business to lose money. I doubt many here would.
But it is another example where optimizing my benefit doesn't optimize the benefit to society.
Hmm, Birch's results from several decades ago claimed that - he claimed 80% I think.
I doubt that's applicable today. Unions were more powerful then and outsourcing hadn't really taken hold. Many of the big companies of that era are either much smaller now or non-existent. Here in MA, Wang and Digital (DEC) are gone, but no major job growth engines have come along to replace them. Many of the spinoffs from networking, HD drives, etc. are now gone or shadows of their former selves.
Genzyme and some other tech companies have shown some growth, but they seem to be a capital intensive and there are relatively few jobs created given the total investment. They do tend to be better paying jobs, but there aren't that many of them...
More recent econometric papers have showed a trend to more net job creation by smaller businesses, even as they corrected Birch's historical overestimate
But... the big employers are places like hospitals, and insurance companies and box stores eg.:
2011 Globe 100
Largest Massachusetts-based employers
Ranked by worldwide workforce in 2010.
Rank Company Employees
1 TJX Cos. 166,000
2 Staples 89,019
3 Raytheon Co. 72,400
4 EMC Corp. 48,500
5 Covidien 41,500
6 Thermo Fisher Scientific 37,200
7 Stream Global Services 30,000
8 State Street Corp. 28,670
9 Boston Scientific Corp. 25,000
10 BJ's Wholesale Club 24,800
11 Five Star Quality Care 22,500
12 Iron Mountain 19,400
13 Alere 11,900
14 Genzyme Corp. 10,100
15 UniFirst Corp. 10,000
I guess I'm pointing out that the presence of the union seems to engender an apprenticeship program, while the non-union operations are content to cannibalize other employer's labor. Really not interested in arguing the pro's and con's of union for the employee, but it does seem to have a certain social benefit in this situation of training skills.
So basically, America has been stagnant since JFK took office...I call BS...
This is not what Stiglitz claims. He says that the income of the typical male worker in America is the same today as it was in 1968. Furthermore he clearly states that the increases in income and wealth of the richest Americans has risen considerably during the same period. (I don't recall the actual numbers, 20% income increase and 40% of wealth increase, perhaps...).
Dry cites the huge increase in innovation during this time.
Although this is probably true, almost of the benefits of this innovation accrued to the rich and probably disadvantaged the average American worker as his wages and benefits declined and in many cases resulted in his losing his job.
I think that everyone on an *Internet message board *can agree that there has been innovation in the United States in the past 50 years.
If Marie Antoinette had been alive in the 30s she would have surely remarked that the poors have it better than any noble in the 18th century because most have access to electricity.
I guess I'm pointing out that the presence of the union seems to engender an apprenticeship program, while the non-union operations are content to cannibalize other employer's labor.
The latter 'believes' if they bid more for workers - potential workers will see the benefit of going into that line of work and pay for training themselves. That works when the job market is stable over periods quite a bit longer than the time [and cost] of getting the training. The last few decades have been anything but that.
Except that is the problem - they don't want to pay them more.
Then obviously they shouldn't hire anyone.
What I'm proposing is a way to pay below-market wages in exchange for a mitigation of risk. The wage you pay in the fifth year will be at below-market rates, or at least you can assume it is if the contract is an NFL-style yearly option. The worker gets a benefit, because they now have a job, valuable training, and a shot at steady employment over a long period of time. Lost in much of the job discussion is just how valuable a steady job is. Constantly staring at the abyss of unemployment is a real source of misery, despite whatever extra bucks are thrown your way.
This also assumes the employer can reasonably plan ahead in five-year increments, and that's probably not practical, either.
If Marie Antoinette had been alive in the 30s she would have surely remarked that the poors have it better than any noble in the 18th century because most have access to electricity.
If that is the 'ultimate' take down Kruggles doesn't have a lot to worry about. Its an 'opinion' - I give the guy that much credit. But you know what they say about opinions - everybody has one.
Since Boeing wasn't allowed to move to South Carolina, and Airbus is going to build an assembly plant in Alabama, what is the reason Airbus won't kick Boeing's ass in the future? Looks fairly certain to me...
If Marie Antoinette had been alive in the 30s she would have surely remarked that the poors have it better than any noble in the 18th century because most have access to electricity.
That's not what I'm saying. There is a difference between innovation and the distribution of the reward for said innovation. In fact, dryfly has argued many times that many forms of increased productivity lead to structural unemployment, which illustrates how the two differ.
Rents were pretty cheap in the 1960s. Then the baby boom started turning 18 in 1964. The median boomer turned 18 in 1973.
Healthcare has gone up to $8000 per capita, twice that of Europe, Canada, etc.
$600B/yr year being ripped out of the paycheck economy due to the trade deficit -- gas was effectively free back then and we largely made it ourselves anyway.
So not only do we lose our jobs to overseas workers:
Well, yeah. Building that shit can the F22 kinda put the rest at a disadvantage. Someone got rich off the deal though so it's all good. And we paid for it!
Yeah, I made the mistake of owning one. The happiest day of my life was when I traded that car in. You got Mercedes price tag with Chrysler service and attitude. #Losing
They hire people they believe will produce work they can profit from. 'Slaves' are rarely highly motivated workers.
The one area this model pays off is when they can hire college students and coops who are working their way through school - you pay them like crap while they are in school and can't command higher wages in the market [they don't have the degree] but more than a few can be pretty high performers with just a little added real world experience. Then once they get the degree their market value increases a lot and you can decide whether you want to match the market or not.
That actually is done quite a lot to this day but that isn't where the biggest shortage is - its in trades and they haven't moved to this model all that well. At least not for manufacturing companies.
That's not what I'm saying. There is a difference between innovation and the distribution of the reward for said innovation.
Technological innovations always seem to be an actual case of 'trickle down' though... and a lot of the early "IT" invention originated with institutional research, not home hackers in their garages (that came later, and even then tended toward forms of aggregate capital).
They had workstudy at my undergraduate school...it was great if you were poor...and if you weren't I don't think you signed up for the extra semesters...
They hire people they believe will produce work they can profit from.
I should've been more precise. I meant they should not hire new, untrained workers.
What you describe sounds more like my proposal. How often, though, do they keep the workers after school/initial training are finished? Once you have to pay back student loans, the mandate to find the highest paying job is strong.
The problem is you train them for your competitors. Or you have to compensate them so much more to keep them from being stolen by your competition. So in effect they pay twice. They pay to train them then pay more to keep them so that the economic benefit isn't there.
And in this 'deflationary' climate they can't just raise prices to overcome those added costs.
This does not add up macroeconomically - if no one can get trained workers, and the demand is there then prices must be rising.
Effectively each firm wants a free ride where they get trained workers without having to incur any costs, that only goes so far, as they are finding out.
Market will magically take care of this, I'm sure...
The double-dip recession has entered a third consecutive quarter according to the National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR).
Meanwhile, Sir Mervyn King has today issued another warning on the dangers to the UK economy of the euro debt crisis, saying on BBC Radio 4’s World at One that: "There is a great black cloud of uncertainty hanging over businesses all around the world.
They had workstudy at my undergraduate school...it was great if you were poor...and if you weren't I don't think you signed up for the extra semesters...
Now they fight over it - the best coops mean $10-20K a year more in entry level salary.
When I went to engineering school I didn't need it - there were so many real manufacturing and lab research jobs available you just applied and got one. Actually got quite a few of them. And that was in stagflation. But Minnesota wasn't hit as hard as the Great Lakes were - my wife near Milwaukee saw it a lot differently. Much harder there.
I'm readying the "pavel" signal for the night sky:
...
BEIJING — In a sign of rising tensions between the Vatican and China, authorities in recent days have ordained one Catholic bishop without Rome’s consent and detained another after he made a dramatic break with the country’s Communist-run religious hierarchy.
On Friday, government officials organized the consecration of the Rev. Joseph Yue Fusheng as bishop in the northern city of Harbin. Bishop Yue’s nomination had not been approved by the Vatican, and reports said bishops loyal to the Vatican were forced to participate — a common practice meant to give Beijing-appointed bishops legitimacy in the eyes of local believers. The Vatican immediately excommunicated him.
...
same practices in Vietnam. usually there is a secret bishop appointed by Rome.
if you venture into a church in Vietnam you'll notice something missing on the ceiling.
the coat of arms of the Holy See... I noticed it, but few ever do... Communism, what can I say?
well, no, not all - this is the problem - it means greater profits for a few
and as more businesses do it, they end up killing demand (cf Henry Ford and need for customers)
and as demand shrinks at some point there will be fewer businesses, with maybe the survivors having high profit margins,
but low aggregate gross and much lower overall economic activity
you can't extrapolate microeconomic perturbations to macroeconomic scenarios
Yeah, I think the last time I flew was around then. I truly don't care if I ever fly again. I just don't see it as a safe means of transportation anymore. Too many cuts for the sake of profit for my tastes.
...that was also the time that you got your undergrad in engineering and stayed for a masters in business...
Very few did that [when I was in school] because your employer would pay for it in a heartbeat. Why pay for your own MBA when they would do it. And again - they didn't mind one bit if you did it at night part-time and took you better part of a decade. They paid you at BS grade but increasingly loaded other tasks on. Once you got the MBA [or MS] then they had to pony up.
"If you look at the income of the typical male worker in the United States today, it's the same as it was in 1968. Almost half a century of stagnation," Stiglitz argues."
This does not strike me as particularly wrong.
This totally ignores two things- non-wage compensation, and what the basket of consumables for that income actually is.
So?
What it tells you is that the productivity gains have not gone to workers compensation.
We know that. It is captured in many economic indicators.
And it can't go on.
Only question remaining is how the trend will be reversed, when and how nasty it will get.
Yeah, I think the last time I flew was around then. I truly don't care if I ever fly again. I just don't see it as a safe means of transportation anymore. Too many cuts for the sake of profit for my tastes.
Flying anywhere has been safer than driving from almost the beginning of commercial aviation, and getting safer all the time.
So by the time you average out your decade of basically working for free or darn near with your couple decades of working for good wages it all evens out to you made mediocre wages for the span of your career. Can't understand why more people aren't lining up for that program...
Labor union takes aim at Airbus Alabama plant | al.com
Airbus will have to pay a comparable wage or they will eventually get unionized. Maybe not exactly penny for penny but real close. Toyota did the same basic thing.
I see that another path to training is community colleges, which offer associate degrees in CNC machine operation, but have to defer to others on whether this practically leads to employment without further training on the "job", if that is available.
I assume pavel is on a private jet to the Vatican as I write this.
his mission should he decide to accept it is to go to Asia
and round up all the Pope selected "secret Bishops"
and form the Ex-Bishops who will be granted
special supra-natural powers by papal bull to fight for truth, justice and the
American way
or whatever...
So the rational thing to do is do minimal training [super short payback] and pay people less and just walk away from orders - instead of taking a bunch more orders and losing money on them.
Re: "the formula for the random perturbation, the means and standard deviations for both variables, the OLS fit, the lot. With all this information to hand, economists can be much more accurate when being asked to do something like work out a value for X such that there’s a 95% chance that Y will be greater than zero.
But here’s the thing: when the economists were shown both the graph and the detailed numbers, the number of economists getting the answer spectacularly wrong — the number giving an answer of less than 10 — soared."
==> That's funny, because these boobs are in their positions as a result of random luck, and their odds of reading tea leaves are exactly equal to the odds you and I have today ... they all need to hang by their tiny 's and admit that they have no f'ing clue what their doing, and that in fact, they toss darts at ghosts and wear panty hose hats
Dry is right re: training.
Simple reason being is that skilled labor is just as savvy, and loyal, as their management is (or corporate overlords if you prefer).
Yeah, I think the last time I flew was around then. I truly don't care if I ever fly again. I just don't see it as a safe means of transportation anymore. Too many cuts for the sake of profit for my tastes.
I'm reading this as I prepare to leave for the airport in a few hours.
BEIJING — In a sign of rising tensions between the Vatican and China,
This is a very big deal for the Vatican. No apostolic succession, no legitimate bishop, no ordained ministers (priests and deacons). Sacraments other than marriage and baptism are invalid.
It is a direct attack on the Catholic Church. Priests will go to a labor camp or a prison rather than submit. The Vatican will never agree to it. Martyrs are made out of controversies like this.
Ranked by worldwide workforce in 2010.
Rank Company Employees
1 TJX Cos. 166,000
2 Staples 89,019
I can assure you that the bulk of "these" employees are not in MA. Some of the companies further down the list do have a greater percentage of their working in MA, but like Genzyme that I mentioned earlier, they tend to produce fewer jobs per dollar invested than a company like DEC did. Also, note that about 1/2 of the companies, including to top 2 don't actually produce anything...
If Marie Antoinette had been alive in the 30s she would have surely remarked that the poors have it better than any noble in the 18th century because most have access to electricity.
Let them eat... OOOH PAWN STARS!?
If most of the poors in the '30s had electricity, what was the point of the Rural Electrification Project, the Hoover Dam and the TVA?
Most of the best programs are in prisons these days, so maybe Obama is doing a better job than we think .. a lot of funding goes into training convicts with better educations than are offered by many community colleges;
According to government projections released last month, only three of the 30 occupations with the largest projected number of job openings by 2020 will require a bachelor’s degree or higher to fill the position – teachers, college professors and accountants.
I can't find an old link, but the number of recent college grads equaled the number of prisoners released ...
The competition for part-time jobs at walmart is increasing rapidly
Yes, statistically, you are more likely to die from a plane dropping on your head while serving drinks than actually flying in a plane. You'd think "No way is that true", but my proprietary models prove otherwise.....
Ladies and Gentlemen, I present to you the Ex-Bishops
............................................................................................................................................................................... Bishop O'Mallon
vested with the power to turn water into wine and also drink anyone in the world under the table Bishop Conte
vested with the power of extreme dandruff giving him the ability to cause massive white-outs Bishop Schultheis
vested with the power of extreme halitosis giving him the ability to render unconscious any human in his path Bishop Brute
vested with the power of extreme penitence giving him the ability to put someone in an endless loop of Hail Marys Bishop Jones
vested with the power to ex-communicate anyone and make them permanently invisible on the Internet Bishop Halston
vested with the power of extreme make-over giving him the ability to make someone into a Hasidic Jew with wave of the hand
OR has a well-trained manufacturing workforce and pays livable wages - without any anti-union tactics
Jim you are smarter than this...or are you one of those Cali transplants that Oregon has been begging not to come...seriously, you sound like KP rather that the usual poster I've read...
That and get the kids to quit protesting. Make them worry more about their nose to the grindstone and less about lofty ideals.
Are student loans going to be like the draft and the VietNam war? Can you escape the loan debt by moving to Canada or England like some of my co-workers did until Jimmy gave them get home free cards?
CR: Just so you know, I stopped coming to your site months ago because you are either a glass half full delusional fool who tries to put a positive spin on news reports or you are a paid shill for the financial elite. Another happy talk headline from you confirms that what you are seeing is not what the rest of us are experiencing. Not sure why you continue to try to bail out the water from a sinking ship.
Part-time workers for everyone!
yes...WPA now!
Mook wrote:
I want the Indian treatment. Pay 3 women to cut my lawn with shears, and it still be cheaper than the cost of gas for the mower.
Two Part time = Full time No benefits...WIN! ( For the company that is)
The jobs opening data is probably the most useless of the econ data out there.
KP vive!!
Hey, OnTopicStill
More than half of total employment is by businesses employing over 500 people.
Lot of people at 100-500 employee corps also.
Given the number of skilled unemployed and the number of employed working under their skill level this is no longer measuring actual jobs missing a match in the work force.
How economists get tripped up by statistics | Felix Salmon
Senate panel to ask Bernanke about Libor scandal - MarketWatch
http://images.cuddlycomments.com/5/48024e2d21a91994a.jpg
And so it’s easy to see, I think, how economists become convinced of things that the rest of us aren’t sure of at all — and how the economists often end up being wrong, while the rest of us were right to be dubious.
What is the significance of job openings (yellow) trending towards hires (blue)?
"Job Openings increased in May"
Noooooooo!
ACHUTHAN: The US Is In Recession Already - Business Insider
I like the photo they used of Laksham. It looks like he just shit his pants.
Tee Hee...
steinly wrote:
IIRC, under 500 employees is considered small business by the SBA. In fact, you'd be hard pressed to get a standard SBA loan for a company of under 125, though new programs of micro-business loans have been instituted since I last looked at these back in the '90s....
And even if half of total employment is with companies over 500 people, how much of "new employment" is with those companies? I think you'll find that the staff of medium-large firms is rather stagnant, so if you don't already have a job with one of them, you likely won't be getting one soon...
Anybody can be wrong. It takes an economist to be precisely wrong.
And the market is all green, except for oil.
Wither the auto....
Wealth and income inequality: Who gets left behind - Yahoo! Finance
Off to the weekly beating....
According to JOLTS, the economy lost a few jobs in May (more separations than hires).
Diamond nobly "gives up" his bonus,
but will receive his munificent salary (everyone should have such--and apparently unbreakable--employment contracts)
"He said Barclays had complied with the FSA's investigation, and once it became clear that some of the bank's traders had been fixing Libor submissions, it paid the £290m fine imposed by regulators and decided that four senior executives should give up their bonuses.
Only once the public's anger became clear, he said, did he decide further action, in the form of his resignation, was needed.
He added that the bank's brokers "made it clear that shareholders did not want Mr Diamond to go".' BBC News - Libor scandal: Bob Diamond to receive full salary
Job openings hit 5-month high in May - chicagotribune.com
Quotable:
"The increase was broad based, with manufacturing vacancies rising 51,000, to 310,000."
Like I said before, if you don't have a job in this economy, you are not looking hard enough.
azurite wrote:
I wonder: what's the quid pro quo? Since he's not fighting for his money--and he seems like the type who would--is there something else going on?
"Go quietly, Mr. Diamond, and we won't prosecute?"
I have come to doubt government statistics...if they are seeing doom I imagine they all in on trying to make things look OK
Agronox wrote:
Other way round.... "look, I'll quit and forgo this year's pay.... if you pig-fuckers try for a clawback, I'm sending this USB stick to wikileaks".
Election time.
So they seen no doom in 08/09?
Eric wrote:
Hmm. Yeah, actually something like that sounds more probable. He probably has a good deal of dirt on other banks', FSA, BBA, and BoE complicity.
Until the stigma of having been long term unemployed is removed it won't matter how many job openings are available if only available to those currently employed.
time for French Toast and
(I miss the days when we called it Freedom Toast)
I'll leave you with a clip from yesterday's grilling of BoE Chief Paul Tucker
YouTube - Squirm Worm, Squirm! Chairman Paul Tucker roasted by Parliament Inquiry over LIBOR Manipulations
................................................................................................
a banker on the hot seat... it seldom gets better...
Job opening data is bullshit. Actual openings probably run 50% of what is reported.
So what's your job?
Euro Bailout 2012: E.U. Gives Spain More Time On Deficit, Sets Bank Aid
07/09/2012
BRUSSELS, July 10 (Reuters) - "Euro zone ministers agreed early on Tuesday to grant Spain an extra year until 2014 to reach its deficit reduction targets in exchange for further budget savings and set the parameters of an aid package for Madrid's ailing banks.
The decisions were aimed at preventing the currency area's fourth largest economy, mired in a worsening recession, from needing a full state bailout which would stretch the limits of Europe's rescue fund and plunge it deeper into a debt crisis."
Weapon of mass delusion.
Shill if as C Biderman is right about the Fed buying the market to keep it up then all is possible
You are right they were blind then but now...
DIamond: remember that cute number you hooked up with down in the hotel bar last time you were here looking at the books? She had a video camera in her bustier. MY camera... Savvy?
Duke of Con Dao wrote:
Unless it's a banker behind bars.
edit to add: and at great risk of losing most of his/her assets in litigation w/the feds. YouTube - Man of La Mancha - The Impossible Dream / ラマンチャの男 - 見果てぬ夢
steinly wrote:
For those that file employment data sure. Is 500 the median?
cue Broward's intel gathering
"Sorry but we're going to have to open your job to other candidates."
Daily Kos: Updated with irony-Another day, another Wall Street scandal
Phil "it's a mental recession" Gramm is that you?
Ha, America has become a nation of whiners. Now go get a job whiner!
ACHUTHAN: The US Is In Recession Already - Business Insider
Well, he's not just grasping at straws now, he just flat-out didn't update his data.
Achuthan: "When you look at the data today, you see industrial production is off of its April high. Manufacturing and trade sales – much broader than retail sales – is off of its December high."
Real manufacturing and trade sales made a new December (2011) high, and didn't surpass it in January (2012), February or March, just as he said.
Then in April it popped-up and made another new recovery high.
U.S. Department of Commerce. Bureau of Economic Analysis
Section "O", Table 2BU.
Sebastian
black dog wrote:
My former employer, when they were doing reductions, created as many openings as there were going to be reduced positions while telling the unfortunate that they could apply for those positions, but they were sham openings only to keep the layoffs optimistic until they were finally out the door.
It's much easier to find a job when you have one, and so the job having statement becomes tautological in that case. Even still, there are a few of us who have been looking for new jobs, and the process is a real pain. Even when you have a decent shot, it takes months to work through the application process. If you happen to be out of work, you're not getting paid for six months of HR hemming and hawing.
Rob Dawg wrote:
So now the unemployment rate is psychological?
I see a bumper sticker here ....somewhere.
German Constitutional Court Says May Need Up To Three Months To Deliver ESM Verdict | ZeroHedge
Rob Dawg's favorite time period!
Sebastian wrote:
Nooooooo......
Repeal of Glass Steagal Phil Gramm's masterpiece ratified and upheld by the man himself Clinton
there is a great photo of that moment..
in a compromise
France Industrial Production month over month (may)
previous +1.5%
estimate -1.0%
actual -1.9%
year over year (may)
previous +0.9%
estimate -1.6%
actual -3.5%
France Manufacturing Production month over month (may)
previous -0.7%
estimate -0.3%
actual -1.0%
year over year (may)
previous -1.4%
estimate -2.3%
actual -4.3%
Cinco-X wrote:
Hmm, Birch's results from several decades ago claimed that - he claimed 80% I think.
The result appears to have been somewhat misleading, with small business not so much generating a lot of new employment
as having a lot of churn - since they fail a lot they fire a lot of people, and they tend to have a lot of turnover when they stay in business.
Someone working a few months at a McD's shift, or at a single proprietor restaurant that fails is not the same as a medium sized growing business taking someone on for a multi-year career with promotion prospects, benefits etc.
You would need 20 positions lasting 6 months to make up for one long term hire lasting 10 years.
Same employment duration, different hiring rates.
You can't just compare the rate in determining importance of sectors in employment.
Socioeconomic myths really tend to stick around
ANTIPATHY wrote:
We told them.. - Imgur
The idea that their is a dimes amount of difference is ludicrous. Clinton was just as bad as his predecessors and those that followed his footsteps.
Yancey Ward wrote:
They also do some shenanigans when applying for H1-B visa allotments. Look at all these unfilled openings for which we can not find qualified applicants...
azurite wrote:
ZOMG!
t hidden in this LIBOR businesses.
There must be some REALLY bad s
I'd also throw in the job openings that are added after they already know who they will hire, usually someone internal. The net jobs created is zero, because the vacated position is usually not filled.
Comrade Kristina wrote:
I grant you he is a smarmy as they come, particularly with regard to the entertainment industry and FIRE, but I am able to draw a few distinctions between him and his successor. The complete gutting of any regulation or anti-trust enforcement, being a key one in my view.
Eric wrote:
Why, that's half a Friedman Unit!
Dow might be down another coupla slumdogs by then...
We can't seem to find any applicants with 7 years' worth of experience with Office 2007.
Agronox wrote:
?
Blackhalo wrote:
The data on employment includes large enough a fraction of the population that the error can't be more than about 10%,
there just aren't enough adults of working age in the US to be uncounted to shift the statistics substantially
steinly wrote:
Perhaps there might be concern with other industry reported data being manipulated? How accurate has NAR data been historically...
Jefferies begins liquidation of PFGBest customer positions
| Reuters
steinly wrote:
How are folks working 2 part-time or full-time jobs counted? Could altering that methodology affect the data? What about the variability in undocumented workers? Nail salons and housekeeper/babysitters well represented, or not? Of course I'm sure that mark to market is just as accurate as mark to maturity...
steinly wrote:
I doubt that's applicable today. Unions were more powerful then and outsourcing hadn't really taken hold. Many of the big companies of that era are either much smaller now or non-existent. Here in MA, Wang and Digital (DEC) are gone, but no major job growth engines have come along to replace them. Many of the spinoffs from networking, HD drives, etc. are now gone or shadows of their former selves.
Genzyme and some other tech companies have shown some growth, but they seem to be a capital intensive and there are relatively few jobs created given the total investment. They do tend to be better paying jobs, but there aren't that many of them...
American Capital Agency Corp., AGNC Stock Quote - (NASDAQ) AGNC, American Capital Agency Corp. Stock Price
Earnings on the July 23....Still calling $39 for this run.
Nice to see you $35 welcome home.
"The Friedman Unit, or simply Friedman, is a tongue-in-cheek neologism coined by blogger Atrios (Duncan Black) on May 21, 2006. One Friedman Unit is equal to six months, specifically the "next six months", a period repeatedly declared by New York Times columnist Thomas Friedman to be the most critical of the then-ongoing Iraq War even though such pronouncements extended back over two and a half years."
It bears some resemblance to the "second half recovery" over here.
THAT PHOTO embedded in story
JOBS Act: The Dumbest "Bipartisan" Move Since Repealing Glass-Steagall
Everywhere I go recently there are quite a few openings - but almost all are in narrow highly skilled areas and very few or none are in anything remotely resembling 'entry level'. Even for supposedly trained workers.
If there is one area where the job market is totally broken it is here - I don't see how we are going to get the skilled workers of the future if there is no incentive to hire relatively weak skilled entry level workers today. None.
If there is a place for a WPA-like program THAT would be it.
STIGLITZ: America Has Seen 'Almost Half A Century Of Stagnation' - Business Insider
So basically, America has been stagnant since JFK took office...I call BS...
Cinco-X wrote:
So do I. I get it there is a problem sharing the benefits of productivity but stagnation in aggregate hasn't been the problem.
I hate it when guys exaggerate shit just to make their point. It weakens their argument and makes them look silly. I mostly agree with a lot of Stiglitz concerns but that was just silly.
I still don't understand why employers supposedly so desparate for skilled workers won't hire and train some. From a business standpoint, it doesn't make sense. My guess is that this has as much to do about hiring skilled workers at the prices employers want. Employers need to respond to the market by either paying alot more money for these workers, or maybe (and I'm going out on a limb here) train them (gasp).
Fellow speculators!
What the heck is the deal with Sunshine Heart (SSH)? Something like $3 two weeks ago, and now around $13.50.
Not that I would trade such a thing. I'm just wondering what this new product is that has the stock going up 30% every day.
dryfly wrote:
Back in the 70s there was a program to address that called SETA (it probably spanned a much longer period, but I know I got one of those jobs out of HS) where the government sponsored jobs that were supposed to provide experience for young workers so that they could get past the entry level barrier. My recollection is that the results were never very successful, but it was a nice bit of pork so the programs lasted...
dryfly,
OT but here is the reply from my urban planner friend in the Washington, DC area.
I don't really have advice for the modular housing contact. There are a lot of would be players in this area, but it is true that beyond the issue of general perception by the public, local regulations (planning, zoning, building) are the major issue stymying potential builders/developers. Because of the diversity of local regulations and particulars of local politics, change in this area will be very slow. This is particularly true now that housing is more affordable than it has been in decades (thereby removing the economic incentive to reduce housing costs through increased density and technological improvements), which by the way is the reason that my consulting business in the area of affordable housing has been dead for nearly four years now.
dryfly wrote:
LOL...glad I never do that...
BREAKING
CFTC sues PFG for 'violating' customer funds
He did say almost but that's about correct. I say about 40 years give or take. You can really see it set in around 1980
Cinco-X wrote:
You actually read the quote, right, and not just the headline?
"If you look at the income of the typical male worker in the United States today, it's the same as it was in 1968. Almost half a century of stagnation," Stiglitz argues."
This does not strike me as particularly wrong.
shill wrote:
shill wrote:
barn door, horse, yada yada yada
Lurking Lawyer wrote:
They would if they could enslave them for say five years after the training.
The problem is you train them for your competitors. Or you have to compensate them so much more to keep them from being stolen by your competition. So in effect they pay twice. They pay to train them then pay more to keep them so that the economic benefit isn't there.
And in this 'deflationary' climate they can't just raise prices to overcome those added costs.
Faced with that many just decide to not expand. Even with plenty of inquiries and RFP opportunities they turn away business instead. I have done that with companies I work with. Tell potential customers we can't get workforce at a pay scale that would allow us to bid competitively. So we don't bid.
It looks like the IAM (Machinist union) runs apprenticeship programs in conjunction with employers like Boeing. Of course, if the union is verboten, and the employer wants to avoid training cost as well, it is unclear where trained worker recruitment is going to come from other than industrial cannibalism.
Comrade Kristina wrote:
1980 to 2000 was one of the steepest innovation periods in world history. It was anything but stagnant. Its just a matter of who received the benefit of that innovation.
Also - if you asked Chinese or other SE Asians they would look at Stiglitz remarks and laugh.
This is all about who and not what/when.
coming to a "confidence" near you ...
The dual hearings on sequestration come as Republicans are making a concerted effort to attract public attention to the defense cuts and press the Obama administration to explain what impact the cuts would have. At the same time, defense industry leaders are warning about layoffs from the cuts and threatening to send out mass layoff notices just days before the November election.
McKeon and other Republicans have hammered the Obama administration for not doling out details about sequestration, the $500 billion in automatic cuts to both defense and non-defense spending set to hit on January 2.
The Pentagon has said it’s not yet begun planning for sequestration under instructions from OMB, and OMB officials have called on Congress to reverse the sequestration cuts with alternate deficit reduction.
...
Most Democrats and Republicans, as well as the Obama administration, want the $1 trillion in sequestration cuts to be reversed, but the two parties disagree on how the alternate deficit reduction to replace the cuts should be attained.
OMB director will testify at congressional hearing on effect of sequestration cuts - The Hill's DEFCON Hill
I was referring to wages and quality of life not innovation. Yeah, we did lots of innovating in order to increase productivity in order to enrich the already filthy rich. So I guess that passes for progress nowadays...or something.
Who says they can't? Offer five year contracts with the training benefit amortized over its lifetime. The worker gets added money in exchange for the employer option.
Agronox wrote:
Since I was born a bit before this period of stagnation began, I've been able to see all of it and be pretty cognizant of most of it. I've seen computers go from room size to pocket size, man land on the moon, and all sorts of other major advances. Leukemia and many other lymphomas were once death sentences, but many are now readily curable, and there have been many other advances in medicine and science. When I was born were had only recently become aware of the double helix nature of DNA and how it functioned, but now we've mapped the entire human genome. The list could go on and on, but I don't think I'll bother with you.
dryfly wrote:
So that explains student loans...
Comrade Kristina wrote:
So was Stiglitz, but apparently that's not going to stop people...
The Ultimate Krugman Take-Down | ZeroHedge
Lurking Lawyer wrote:
Premise: Since laying off 10% of my workforce, in 2009 my profits have doubled.
I'm selling less, but making more.
My options now are:
A) Hire more people (expecting to return to selling more, but making lower profits)
B) Maintain current work force (and continue making the largest profits in my company history)
The problem is the (mistaken) belief that having extra money BY ITSELF is incentive to hire more workers.
You add employees in only two cases: First is you MUST. In other words, you have more demand than your current workforce can meet AND you have competition that can meet that excess demand if you do not.
Second is "pre-emptive" -- you "believe" that demand is going to be increasing and you do not want to late in getting to market to get your piece of the pie.
The unspoken reality about business is "lacking competition", it is in the best interest of the business owner to NOT increase supply. If you keep supply down, price (and profit go up). If you have 'limited' competition, then collusive structuring, (we ALL agree to keep supply down), means greater profits for all WITN NO EXTRA WORK - (or workers).
dryfly wrote:
Despite our political differences, you are one of the commenters here that I respect the most. I have a hard time taking some of these other folks seriously...
American Capital Agency Corp., AGNC Stock Quote - (NASDAQ) AGNC, American Capital Agency Corp. Stock Price
Geebus H Christ Eric, I hope you are in on this run man....
Ben admits he had full knowledge of Libor games and didn't do anything about it, the banks involved are in his club.
You gotta problem with that?
Ben says tough shit, our coup is complete....we are untouchable.
dryfly wrote:
i call BS on your BS. stiglitz did not say that america has been stagnant since 1968. he said that the wage of the average american male is about the same as in 1968. i suspect that on an inflation-adjusted basis that this might be correct. labor force participation, debt, and hedonics may have give americans a semblance of having more but there is more to life than ipads and large screen teevees.
Comrade Elmer Fudd wrote:
They still need a lot of on the job training - real work experience and you only get that at the work sight.
What is really perverse is that those going through the IAM training aren't obliged to remain union members. If they so decide they can go to work for a non union shop at anytime. And frankly - if the nonunion shop pays well and treats workers well they rarely push to form a union. I have seen defeated unionization efforts fail over and over even in regions with strong union support. The reason? Workers don't want to pay union dues if they don't feel they have to. That is just fact. But if the employers kicks them around our is cheap they will pay those dues in a heartbeat.
Companies get the unions they deserve. They don't fall from the sky like snow - they are 'earned'.
Agronox wrote:
This totally ignores two things- non-wage compensation, and what the basket of consumables for that income actually is.
Cinco-X wrote:
A righty respects a righty.
shill wrote:
100% cash here.
Around here in Charlotte, they lay you off then if you are good, they suggest you reapply for a job (at the same employer) and offer you half your previous salary...
I think that everyone on an *Internet message board *can agree that there has been innovation in the United States in the past 50 years.
Whiskey wrote:
Except that is the problem - they don't want to pay them more. You could always do that anyway without a contract - just out bid those who want to now steal your increasingly productive workers. You lose the contract you were training them to do.
The only way training pays is if you decide to pay the expense of training them THEN get them for an extended period of time at a lower cost to pay back the cost of the training. Or raise prices on your products if the market will bear the increase [currently won't].
So the rational thing to do is do minimal training [super short payback] and pay people less and just walk away from orders - instead of taking a bunch more orders and losing money on them.
I get it - I would do the same thing. I would not go into business to lose money. I doubt many here would.
But it is another example where optimizing my benefit doesn't optimize the benefit to society.
Eric wrote:
Define "cash".
Whiskey wrote:
The Internet is just a fad
Yancey Ward wrote:
Are you thinking about that nice old grandma who has to eat cat food because her non-wage interest is only earning 1%?
sound of world tiniest violin playing the worlds saddest song
Cinco-X wrote:
More recent econometric papers have showed a trend to more net job creation by smaller businesses, even as they corrected Birch's historical overestimate
But... the big employers are places like hospitals, and insurance companies and box stores eg.:
2011 Globe 100
Largest Massachusetts-based employers
Ranked by worldwide workforce in 2010.
Rank Company Employees
1 TJX Cos. 166,000
2 Staples 89,019
3 Raytheon Co. 72,400
4 EMC Corp. 48,500
5 Covidien 41,500
6 Thermo Fisher Scientific 37,200
7 Stream Global Services 30,000
8 State Street Corp. 28,670
9 Boston Scientific Corp. 25,000
10 BJ's Wholesale Club 24,800
11 Five Star Quality Care 22,500
12 Iron Mountain 19,400
13 Alere 11,900
14 Genzyme Corp. 10,100
15 UniFirst Corp. 10,000
Blackhalo wrote:
That and get the kids to quit protesting. Make them worry more about their nose to the grindstone and less about lofty ideals.
I guess I'm pointing out that the presence of the union seems to engender an apprenticeship program, while the non-union operations are content to cannibalize other employer's labor. Really not interested in arguing the pro's and con's of union for the employee, but it does seem to have a certain social benefit in this situation of training skills.
Shill never posts about his many losing trades. Living the dream.
Whiskey wrote:
"They have the internet on computers these days."
shill wrote:
are you planning on gracing us with the dump that goes with the pump, Shill?
yuan wrote:
And American Males are all that matter right? Might add White Anglo to that.
Cinco-X wrote:
This is not what Stiglitz claims. He says that the income of the typical male worker in America is the same today as it was in 1968. Furthermore he clearly states that the increases in income and wealth of the richest Americans has risen considerably during the same period. (I don't recall the actual numbers, 20% income increase and 40% of wealth increase, perhaps...).
Dry cites the huge increase in innovation during this time.
Although this is probably true, almost of the benefits of this innovation accrued to the rich and probably disadvantaged the average American worker as his wages and benefits declined and in many cases resulted in his losing his job.
No shit...
Lots more broker-dealers to go bye bye.
Have a nice day.
sound of world tiniest violin playing the worlds saddest song
Ted Nugent bought the amp for it
Yeah, the point of contention seems to be where the profits from these innovations went.
Folks, Stiglitz wasn't talking about technology when he made his comments. He was looking at it from an income and political standpoint.
And you can certainly make a plausible argument for such stagnation.
CR and or Kcoop, Please move that share with box away from comments!!!!! Or eliminate the mouse over. Ugly!!!
What losses here you go loud mouth my disclosure for the 100th time
American Capital Agency Corp., AGNC Stock Quote - (NASDAQ) AGNC, American Capital Agency Corp. Stock Price
SUPERVALU Inc, SVU Stock Quote - (NASDAQ) SVU, SUPERVALU Inc Stock Price
Annaly Capital Management Inc., NLY Stock Quote - (NYSE) NLY, Annaly Capital Management Inc. Stock Price
Two Harbors Investment Corp., TWO Stock Quote - (NYSE) TWO, Two Harbors Investment Corp. Stock Price
I mean what more do you want from me? this is where I am sitting.
Whiskey wrote:
If Marie Antoinette had been alive in the 30s she would have surely remarked that the poors have it better than any noble in the 18th century because most have access to electricity.
Comrade Elmer Fudd wrote:
The latter 'believes' if they bid more for workers - potential workers will see the benefit of going into that line of work and pay for training themselves. That works when the job market is stable over periods quite a bit longer than the time [and cost] of getting the training. The last few decades have been anything but that.
The Ultimate Krugman Take-Down | ZeroHedge ...
maybe
but had he been forced to speak in Spanish the outcome might be
slightly different...
Lurking Lawyer wrote:
Technology IS an important input or 'factor of production'. It matters.
Then obviously they shouldn't hire anyone.
What I'm proposing is a way to pay below-market wages in exchange for a mitigation of risk. The wage you pay in the fifth year will be at below-market rates, or at least you can assume it is if the contract is an NFL-style yearly option. The worker gets a benefit, because they now have a job, valuable training, and a shot at steady employment over a long period of time. Lost in much of the job discussion is just how valuable a steady job is. Constantly staring at the abyss of unemployment is a real source of misery, despite whatever extra bucks are thrown your way.
This also assumes the employer can reasonably plan ahead in five-year increments, and that's probably not practical, either.
yuan wrote:
Let them eat... OOOH PAWN STARS!?
Sure, but he wasn't talking about output either. He was talking about the distribution of wealth, or lack there of.
An easy question-
Which would you rather have:
An income in 1968, or the same stagnant income in 2012?
Duke of Con Dao wrote:
Saw that last night.
If that is the 'ultimate' take down Kruggles doesn't have a lot to worry about. Its an 'opinion' - I give the guy that much credit. But you know what they say about opinions - everybody has one.
Racquel Welch of '68
Since Boeing wasn't allowed to move to South Carolina, and Airbus is going to build an assembly plant in Alabama, what is the reason Airbus won't kick Boeing's ass in the future? Looks fairly certain to me...
When planes built by minimum wage workers start falling out of the sky they might rethink the benefits of this
Yancey Ward wrote:
When would you rather buy a house, today or in 1968?
These questions are easy because they are meaningless.
Rest assured that the USG won't let that happen.
That's not what I'm saying. There is a difference between innovation and the distribution of the reward for said innovation. In fact, dryfly has argued many times that many forms of increased productivity lead to structural unemployment, which illustrates how the two differ.
But CK, Airbus was already pulling ahead..just the facts, ma'am..
Duke of Con Dao wrote:
Oh, yes!
The Two-Income Trap | Mother Jones
Rents were pretty cheap in the 1960s. Then the baby boom started turning 18 in 1964. The median boomer turned 18 in 1973.
Healthcare has gone up to $8000 per capita, twice that of Europe, Canada, etc.
$600B/yr year being ripped out of the paycheck economy due to the trade deficit -- gas was effectively free back then and we largely made it ourselves anyway.
So not only do we lose our jobs to overseas workers:
Employees on Nonfarm Payrolls: Manufacturing (MANEMP) - FRED - St. Louis Fed
we lose our dollars to them too, every time we buy something.
OTOH, we've seen wonderful advances in technology and productivity since the 1960s.
But the problem is the rents being siphoned out of the middle-class economy.
Half this board visibly vibrates with their successful rent-seeking.
They already build Mercedes in Alabama...I drive by there when I go to the coast..
Well, yeah. Building that shit can the F22 kinda put the rest at a disadvantage. Someone got rich off the deal though so it's all good. And we paid for it!
Yeah, I made the mistake of owning one. The happiest day of my life was when I traded that car in. You got Mercedes price tag with Chrysler service and attitude. #Losing
Whiskey wrote:
They hire people they believe will produce work they can profit from. 'Slaves' are rarely highly motivated workers.
The one area this model pays off is when they can hire college students and coops who are working their way through school - you pay them like crap while they are in school and can't command higher wages in the market [they don't have the degree] but more than a few can be pretty high performers with just a little added real world experience. Then once they get the degree their market value increases a lot and you can decide whether you want to match the market or not.
That actually is done quite a lot to this day but that isn't where the biggest shortage is - its in trades and they haven't moved to this model all that well. At least not for manufacturing companies.
Yancey Ward wrote:
some electrons at Fidelity, no doubt invested in Spanish govt bonds.
I can understand that...that why there's so damn much advertising...because you did not know how much you needed that Rolex......
Comrade Kristina wrote:
They make some pretty sophisticated aerospace structures in Bama now - near Huntsville/Decatur area. And it is a far cry from minimum wage.
Whiskey wrote:
Technological innovations always seem to be an actual case of 'trickle down' though... and a lot of the early "IT" invention originated with institutional research, not home hackers in their garages (that came later, and even then tended toward forms of aggregate capital).
Agronox wrote:
Then you are claiming you would be happier in 1800 at the same income?
Dryfly,
They had workstudy at my undergraduate school...it was great if you were poor...and if you weren't I don't think you signed up for the extra semesters...
. Whiskey wrote:
this is not our problem today. its all about a massive chasm of demand caused by the zombification and death of PRIVATE debt.
I should've been more precise. I meant they should not hire new, untrained workers.
What you describe sounds more like my proposal. How often, though, do they keep the workers after school/initial training are finished? Once you have to pay back student loans, the mandate to find the highest paying job is strong.
dryfly wrote:
This does not add up macroeconomically - if no one can get trained workers, and the demand is there then prices must be rising.
Effectively each firm wants a free ride where they get trained workers without having to incur any costs, that only goes so far, as they are finding out.
Market will magically take care of this, I'm sure...
Re: BLS Bullshit
The UK double-dip recession is getting deeper, warns NIESR
The double-dip recession has entered a third consecutive quarter according to the National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR).
Meanwhile, Sir Mervyn King has today issued another warning on the dangers to the UK economy of the euro debt crisis, saying on BBC Radio 4’s World at One that: "There is a great black cloud of uncertainty hanging over businesses all around the world.
Also see: The Five Stages of Grief
WARNING: Kübler-Ross added that these stages are not meant to be complete or chronological.
It's ok to be F'ing
Yeah well, I ain't flying in anything built in Alabama. Just not doing it. I'll be quite happy to never fly again if that's my only option.
Bruce in Tennessee wrote:
Now they fight over it - the best coops mean $10-20K a year more in entry level salary.
When I went to engineering school I didn't need it - there were so many real manufacturing and lab research jobs available you just applied and got one. Actually got quite a few of them. And that was in stagflation. But Minnesota wasn't hit as hard as the Great Lakes were - my wife near Milwaukee saw it a lot differently. Much harder there.
steinly wrote:
A labor force equivalent of 'paradox of thrift'.
All Employees: Durable Goods: Motor Vehicles and Parts (CES3133600101) - FRED - St. Louis Fed
Where did this
come from? I was assured that Europe had solved things this morning, and Alcoa beat the street last night.
I'm readying the "pavel" signal for the night sky:
...
BEIJING — In a sign of rising tensions between the Vatican and China, authorities in recent days have ordained one Catholic bishop without Rome’s consent and detained another after he made a dramatic break with the country’s Communist-run religious hierarchy.
On Friday, government officials organized the consecration of the Rev. Joseph Yue Fusheng as bishop in the northern city of Harbin. Bishop Yue’s nomination had not been approved by the Vatican, and reports said bishops loyal to the Vatican were forced to participate — a common practice meant to give Beijing-appointed bishops legitimacy in the eyes of local believers. The Vatican immediately excommunicated him.
...
same practices in Vietnam. usually there is a secret bishop appointed by Rome.
if you venture into a church in Vietnam you'll notice something missing on the ceiling.
the coat of arms of the Holy See... I noticed it, but few ever do... Communism, what can I say?
Comrade Kristina wrote:
Last flew in 2005. Guess I'm missing out on all that TSA goodness.
Comrade Troyski wrote:
breton woods II is still alive and well. but for how long...
dryfly wrote:
..I was a EE myself as an undergrad..there were an awful lot of kids who signed up for it in my day...
...that was also the time that you got your undergrad in engineering and stayed for a masters in business...
Bretton Woods... but for how long...?
until it comes to Dunsinane?
Firemane wrote:
well, no, not all - this is the problem - it means greater profits for a few
and as more businesses do it, they end up killing demand (cf Henry Ford and need for customers)
and as demand shrinks at some point there will be fewer businesses, with maybe the survivors having high profit margins,
but low aggregate gross and much lower overall economic activity
you can't extrapolate microeconomic perturbations to macroeconomic scenarios
Labor union takes aim at Airbus Alabama plant | al.com
Yeah, I think the last time I flew was around then. I truly don't care if I ever fly again. I just don't see it as a safe means of transportation anymore. Too many cuts for the sake of profit for my tastes.
Report: Some lose homes over as little as $400 - Yahoo! Finance
Bruce in Tennessee wrote:
Very few did that [when I was in school] because your employer would pay for it in a heartbeat. Why pay for your own MBA when they would do it. And again - they didn't mind one bit if you did it at night part-time and took you better part of a decade. They paid you at BS grade but increasingly loaded other tasks on. Once you got the MBA [or MS] then they had to pony up.
[EDITED]
Comrade Troyski wrote:
Looks like a recovery in Klunker repairs;
Yancey Ward wrote:
So?
What it tells you is that the productivity gains have not gone to workers compensation.
We know that. It is captured in many economic indicators.
And it can't go on.
Only question remaining is how the trend will be reversed, when and how nasty it will get.
Comrade Kristina wrote:
Flying anywhere has been safer than driving from almost the beginning of commercial aviation, and getting safer all the time.
So by the time you average out your decade of basically working for free or darn near with your couple decades of working for good wages it all evens out to you made mediocre wages for the span of your career. Can't understand why more people aren't lining up for that program...
Yep...that's true...exactly..
Comrade Kristina wrote:
Airbus will have to pay a comparable wage or they will eventually get unionized. Maybe not exactly penny for penny but real close. Toyota did the same basic thing.
Mhm, it's perfectly safe from where I'm sitting because I won't be flying again anytime soon.
steinly wrote:
Really? So, workers are purchasing the exact same basket of goods today that they were in 1968?
steinly wrote:
Why not? Inquiring minds want to know.
dryfly wrote:
Tell us the story of how you got your sharp stick again, grandpa! (viva nova!)
dryfly wrote:
or, nearly everyone has two, if you analgize to asscheeks.
steinly wrote:
Not likely for reasons of equity, but probably for reasons of demand.
Comrade Kristina wrote:
I don't fly if I don't have to- the convenience factor matters a lot to me, but it is illogical to not do so because you think it unsafe.
I see that another path to training is community colleges, which offer associate degrees in CNC machine operation, but have to defer to others on whether this practically leads to employment without further training on the "job", if that is available.
I assume pavel is on a private jet to the Vatican as I write this.
his mission should he decide to accept it is to go to Asia
and round up all the Pope selected "secret Bishops"
and form the Ex-Bishops who will be granted
special supra-natural powers by papal bull to fight for truth, justice and the
American way
or whatever...
dryfly wrote:
Outsourcing the overflow is another strategy...
km4 wrote:
Re: "the formula for the random perturbation, the means and standard deviations for both variables, the OLS fit, the lot. With all this information to hand, economists can be much more accurate when being asked to do something like work out a value for X such that there’s a 95% chance that Y will be greater than zero.
But here’s the thing: when the economists were shown both the graph and the detailed numbers, the number of economists getting the answer spectacularly wrong — the number giving an answer of less than 10 — soared."
==> That's funny, because these boobs are in their positions as a result of random luck, and their odds of reading tea leaves are exactly equal to the odds you and I have today ... they all need to hang by their tiny
's and admit that they have no f'ing clue what their doing, and that in fact, they toss darts at ghosts and wear panty hose hats
Dry is right re: training.
Simple reason being is that skilled labor is just as savvy, and loyal, as their management is (or corporate overlords if you prefer).
Comrade Kristina wrote:
I'm reading this as I prepare to leave for the airport in a few hours.
Comrade Kristina wrote:
it could be worse: mississippi or south carolina or eastern kenfucky.
Duke of Con Dao wrote:
This is a very big deal for the Vatican. No apostolic succession, no legitimate bishop, no ordained ministers (priests and deacons). Sacraments other than marriage and baptism are invalid.
It is a direct attack on the Catholic Church. Priests will go to a labor camp or a prison rather than submit. The Vatican will never agree to it. Martyrs are made out of controversies like this.
steinly wrote:
I can assure you that the bulk of "these" employees are not in MA. Some of the companies further down the list do have a greater percentage of their working in MA, but like Genzyme that I mentioned earlier, they tend to produce fewer jobs per dollar invested than a company like DEC did. Also, note that about 1/2 of the companies, including to top 2 don't actually produce anything...
Duke of Con Dao wrote:
The Vatican has probably never heard of me.
Yancey Ward wrote:
Am I living in SoCal or Michigan?
Comrade Kristina wrote:
I especially hope that my plane doesn't crash into a Panama City bar tonight.
ResistanceIsFeudal wrote:
If most of the poors in the '30s had electricity, what was the point of the Rural Electrification Project, the Hoover Dam and the TVA?
dryfly wrote:
..and his stinks?
JimPortlandOR wrote:
Or Oregon.
Comrade Elmer Fudd wrote:
Most of the best programs are in prisons these days, so maybe Obama is doing a better job than we think .. a lot of funding goes into training convicts with better educations than are offered by many community colleges;
Prison Rehabilitative Industries and Diversified Prison Rehabilitative Industries and Diversified Enterprises (PRIDE), 2010-2011 Agency Annual Statistical Information
Also see: 53% Of College Graduates With A BA Are Unemployed - Elite Daily
According to government projections released last month, only three of the 30 occupations with the largest projected number of job openings by 2020 will require a bachelor’s degree or higher to fill the position – teachers, college professors and accountants.
The competition for part-time jobs at walmart is increasing rapidly
steinly wrote:
Either one.
Cinco-X wrote:
? I wasn't aware they did.
Yes, statistically, you are more likely to die from a plane dropping on your head while serving drinks than actually flying in a plane. You'd think "No way is that true", but my proprietary models prove otherwise.....
dryfly wrote:
On any given year, the Graduate Materials Science curriculum and UA Huntsville is likely to be number one in the country, public OR private...
ResistanceIsFeudal wrote:
DOH! Yuan wrote that...Sorry...
...Now...Lunchtime and more beatings...
pavel.chichikov wrote:
That doesn't keep people like Duke from firing missiles, rockets and
...
Ladies and Gentlemen, I present to you the Ex-Bishops
...............................................................................................................................................................................
Bishop O'Mallon
vested with the power to turn water into wine and also drink anyone in the world under the table
Bishop Conte
vested with the power of extreme dandruff giving him the ability to cause massive white-outs
Bishop Schultheis
vested with the power of extreme halitosis giving him the ability to render unconscious any human in his path
Bishop Brute
vested with the power of extreme penitence giving him the ability to put someone in an endless loop of Hail Marys
Bishop Jones
vested with the power to ex-communicate anyone and make them permanently invisible on the Internet
Bishop Halston
vested with the power of extreme make-over giving him the ability to make someone into a Hasidic Jew with wave of the hand
From hot dogs to slick ads: Unions spent $4.4 billion on politics in past 6 years | The Ticket - Yahoo! News
Your union dues at work....
pavel.chichikov wrote:
apostolic succession, my ass.
it's just a control mechanism for the hierarchy to self-perpetuate with ass-kissers.
I prefer to think mine goes to fancy lunches, etc. for the leadership, thank you....
Where is Joey Bishop?
Cinco-X wrote:
Lessee. $4.4B, 16M union members, 6 years...$45.83 per union member per year.
Yeah, that'll tilt the table.
Yancey Ward wrote:
non-sequitur! OR has a well-trained manufacturing workforce and pays livable wages - without any anti-union tactics.
Cinco-X wrote:
np
Agronox wrote:
Brawndo! It's got what plants crave!
JimPortlandOR wrote:
No, they are as dumb as people in Mississippi, South Carolina, and Eastern Kenfucky. Even worse, they are assholes.
Cinco-X wrote:
and at Koch industries, your wages that went to senior execs and PACS.
JimPortlandOR wrote:
Jim you are smarter than this...or are you one of those Cali transplants that Oregon has been begging not to come...seriously, you sound like KP rather that the usual poster I've read...
dryfly wrote:
Are student loans going to be like the draft and the VietNam war? Can you escape the loan debt by moving to Canada or England like some of my co-workers did until Jimmy gave them get home free cards?
One of my former law profs is cited in this:
Housings Last Chance
CR: Just so you know, I stopped coming to your site months ago because you are either a glass half full delusional fool who tries to put a positive spin on news reports or you are a paid shill for the financial elite. Another happy talk headline from you confirms that what you are seeing is not what the rest of us are experiencing. Not sure why you continue to try to bail out the water from a sinking ship.