Christmas spending season will be very interesting this year.

Not really surprising from what I've been witnessing. Business is awful again. I also saw an article in the paper this morning saying credit card spending is back to levels not seen since 2007. I mentioned a few weeks ago I was seeing a huge percentage of credit cards being used again and it reminded me of right before the crash in 2008. I guess it's not a coincidence.

Its not easy being green :A lower reading this month creates more room for growth next month.

In the survey, the "single most important problem" was "poor customers".

Fixed It For Ya

Weren't these the same businesses who held off hiring because they couldn't understand the Affordable Health Care Act?

LOL!

Most small businesses are poorly run.

Laughing out loud It's amazing how people with McJobs can't afford to spend on anything but food and shelter. Crazy talk...

Without small business confidence going forward, hiring will remain flat to declining.

Dooooooooooooooom!!! loop.

Yep, Nanoo. I'm certainly shocked, aren't you?

Mhm, imagine how bad it would be if there was such a thing as global warming. Snark

Comrade Kristina wrote:

It's amazing how people with McJobs can't afford to spend on anything but food and shelter. Crazy talk...

Low-Paid Grads On Tight Budgets Switching to Discounters - Bloomberg

Michael Baum took every substitute teaching job he found and has sent out hundreds of resumes since graduating from college two years ago. He never got a full-time offer and works as a waiter in a pizza parlor in Chicago, earning $650 on a busy week.

“It’s discouraging,” said Baum, 25, who is certified to teach in Texas and North Carolina as well as his native Michigan. His pay is just enough to cover basic living expenses.

Outsider wrote on Tue, 7/10/2012 - 7:25 am (in reply to...)

Truth be told, they all look alike. It's hard to know till it's too late.

"This one time, at penguin band camp......."

KarmaPolice wrote:

Most small businesses are poorly run.

cite please. I operated my own small business once upon a time. Perhaps it is because small businesses can't keep 3 sets of books to fudge their profits and earnings reports.

EDIT: Damn you people.

Not surprising when you realize most of the headlines are put out by the same source.

Nanoo-Nanoo wrote:

Without small business confidence going forward, hiring will remain flat to declining.

U.S. Employers Plan to Add Jobs in Third Quarter, Manpower Says - Bloomberg

I don't have a cite for it but I can honestly say that maybe 10 percent of the places I have worked for were well run, they were all small businesses. Lots of family squabbles type stuff that bleeds over into business or alcoholism that does the same. I know anecdotes don't equal data but there is a reason such a high percentage of them fail right out the gate.

Nanoo-Nanoo wrote:

cite please.

Restaurants......

FTL: For the first time since 2008, employers held positive outlooks on hiring in consecutive quarters in all four regions of the country and in all industries. The figures may ease concern that the job market is faltering after Labor Department data showed employment rose in May at the slowest pace in a year.
“We’ve been climbing out of this slowly,” Manpower Chief Executive Officer Jeff Joerres said in an interview. “It’s nothing fantastic, but it’s a hand-over-hand rappelling up the hill.”

And yet small biz optimism is waning.

"Step right up! Pick a headline, any headline..."

Comrade Kristina wrote:

I know anecdotes don't equal data but there is a reason such a high percentage of them fail right out the gate.

I'd have to agree..... especially since if you're collecting anecdotes of success from HCN, that's not exactly a random sample.

KarmaPolice wrote:

U.S. Employers Plan to Add Jobs in Third Quarter, Manpower Says - Bloomberg

“It’s nothing fantastic, but it’s a hand-over-hand rappelling up the hill.”

Rappelling up the hill? Interesting.

Restaurants......

Pfft. What is it, like 9 out of 10 restaurants fail? Incredibly difficult industry.

Small biz may not be perfect, but it's the backbone of our economy, so better give some respect.

curious wrote:

Michael Baum took every substitute teaching job he found and has sent out hundreds of resumes since graduating from college two years ago. He never got a full-time offer and works as a waiter in a pizza parlor in Chicago, earning $650 on a busy week.

Structural unemployment rears its ugly head again. The nation clearly has too many teachers and not enough pizza parlor waiters. I'm glad this guy landed on his feet.

Not inconsistent. We knew already that temp hiring was a part of the mix.

Yeah, this crowd tends to be smarter than the average bear. Although my sampling is biased as most of those were bar/restaurants. Other types of business might be more well run. I have seen many contractors that I wait on and I'm guessing they're not really doing a bang up job. Many of them went out of business during the bust as well. Of course their idea of "running their business" was sitting at the bar and drinking all day with the company credit card so yeah...

Outsider wrote:

Pfft. What is it, like 9 out of 10 restaurants fail? Incredibly difficult industry.

Small biz may not be perfect, but it's the backbone of our economy, so better give some respect.

It's the only industry left in America, other than porn.

Besides "Mama's favorite meatloaf, drowned in gravy, side of tater", what else does America actually MAKE?

Most small businesses are poorly run.

I beg to differ...Debt free and I pay for supplies on my way out the door. Small and I keep it in my immediate family only.

Friend of mine owns a small breakfast and lunch diner...standing room only at times...Why because the food is top notch priced right, and he is one hell of a cook.

"If you're getting the impression that Christians are more apt than members of other religions to see Armageddon just around the corner, you're right. The perpetual apocalyptic expectation of Christianity has its roots in the New Testament, whose authors, like every subsequent generation of Christians, expected the end of the world to come within their own lifetimes."

""The environmental movement is consumed with trying to preserve the planet forever. But we know that isn't in God's plan.

The earth we inhabit is not a permanent planet. It is, frankly, a disposable planet – it is going to have a very short life. It's been around six thousand years or so – that's all – and it may last a few thousand more. And then the Lord is going to destroy it."

GOP + Innocent = Why do anything as we are all going to die.

shill wrote:

I beg to differ...Debt free and I pay for supplies on my way out the door.

See: "HCN selection bias", as noted.

Yes, they fail because you have some dumb ass that thinks "I like to eat and I have an old recipe that Mom gave me so I'm gonna make it big in the restaurant business". They of course know zip, zero, nada about the actual running of a restaurant. Same thing with bars, they think it'll be their own personal social club and that it's just so easy to run one.

as of 2008 there were 7,601,000 businesses and of those 6,528,000 had 20 employees or less.

http://www.census.gov/compendia/statab/2012/tables/12s0758.pdf

Your citation is a small snapshot:
Manpower report, 21 percent of the more than 18,000 companies surveyed said they planned to increase staff levels in the next three months. Six percent said they expected to reduce payrolls.

Nanoo-Nanoo wrote:

cite please.

Don't feed the Do Not Feed The Troll

Good Morning Smile

Most small businesses are run badly, they are lucky to live through the on the job manager/owner training. Wink

Executive salaries up more than 40% - San Antonio Express-News

Wilson once served as Texas secretary of state and is a former lobbyist. His hiring illustrates the culture shift in a department where his predecessor was an engineer who earned about $100,000 less.

“They all realized we need this kind of talent to run a complex agency,” Wilson said.

My Head Just Exploded

Job Creation: Posting the first negative reading since December, the net change in employment per firm over the past few months (seasonally adjusted) was -0.11.

8 month low, first negative hiring reading in 6. Almost as if it is trying to say something.

Outsider wrote:

but it's the backbone of our economy, so better give some respect.

Oh I give them respect until I hear them open their mouths.

Rob Dawg wrote:

8 month low, first negative hiring reading in 6. Almost as if it is trying to say something.

Sebastian will be along shortly to interpret it for you.

KarmaPolice wrote:

Oh I give them respect until I hear them open their mouths.

Funny you of all people harbor that attitude.

Eric wrote:

Sebastian will be along shortly to interpret it for you.

lol

Oh! Look! Pretty geyser. I wonder if it's hot.

Rob Dawg wrote:

Funny you of all people harbor that attitude.

I generally don't hear his mouth open.

JPMorgan Silence on Risk Model Spurs Calls for Disclosure - Bloomberg

JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM)’s multibillion- dollar trading loss exposed an industry practice that U.S. regulators are now likely to clamp down on: Banks keep investors in the dark about how they calculate trading risks.
The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission is probing JPMorgan’s belated May 10 disclosure that a change to its mathematical model for gauging trading risk helped fuel the loss in its chief investment office. While the SEC would have to prove that the biggest U.S. bank improperly kept important information from investors, regulators probably will press Wall Street firms to tell more about the risks they’re taking, three former SEC lawyers said

Eric wrote:

Besides "Mama's favorite meatloaf, drowned in gravy, side of tater", what else does America actually MAKE?

Well, the US is the largest manufacturer on the planet...so there's that.

Wink

I generally don't hear his mouth open.

The Internet is a precious thing isn't it Smile

There are several established networks of design/manufacturing/merchandising specialists who can be fielded for one-off projects, and then disbanded - concept has taken hold, and is growing steadily based on its effectiveness in fast track product development and the exceptional quality of the result. A talent pool, if you will, and what temp agencies might have become, but didn't.

Can you reasonably say the country doesn't make anything much, or was that just calling out comment?

Comrade Kristina wrote:

regulators probably will press Wall Street firms to tell more about the risks they’re taking, three former SEC lawyers said

blah blah blah "giving away trade secrets" blah blah blah "hurting us by showing our positions" blah blah blah

(here's a campaign contribution, some hookers and blow)

"after the comment period, the SEC has decide to take no action".

shill wrote:

Friend of mine owns a small breakfast and lunch diner...standing room only at times...Why because the food is top notch priced right, and he is one hell of a cook.

That would be anecdotal. Any person in the restaurant/small business loan industry will tell you a much grimer tale.

burnside wrote:

Can you reasonably say the country doesn't make anything much, or was that just calling out comment?

Oh, I'm sorry... was today "no hyperbole and Snark day on HCN"?

Gonna be mighty quiet..... Crickets

Rob Dawg wrote:

They will rip your face off.

Is this lasting three hours, or three minutes?

KarmaPolice wrote:

That would be anecdotal. Any person in the restaurant/small business loan industry will tell you a much grimer tale.

That's part of the problem, Banksters.

will the Fed Rev the housing engine?

what he said: is the Fed willing to tolerate a housing boom?

Rather, the problem has been the unwillingness of the Fed to rev the engine sufficiently to raise growth in output and employment well above trend, because revving the engine above trend is inconsistent with inflation at or below 2%.

Housing markets: Will the Fed rev the housing engine? | The Economist

Lobbyist Ben Dover wrote:

That's part of the problem, Banksters.

No, they're not.

Most small businesses are simply managed very poorly.

KarmaPolice wrote:

Most small businesses are simply managed very poorly.

Using a Bankster is bad management. IMO. Laughing out loud

Lobbyist Ben Dover wrote:

Using a Bankster is bad management. IMO.

Restaurants, in particular, have A LOT of upfront costs.

Charlie Sheen: 'I see dead people' |

TV

| Entertainment

| Toronto Sun

The Wall Street star reveals he has had two eerie encounters that he cannot explain in recent months.

Prozac

KP, have you owned or managed a restaurant?

OECD sees no end to jobs crisis as economy struggles
| Reuters

The jobless rate in the 34-country OECD area will still be stuck at 7.7 percent at the end of next year, close to this May's 7.9 percent rate and leaving 48 million people out of work, the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development said in 2012 Employment Outlook.

The recent deterioration in the economic outlook was very bad news for the labour market, OECD Secretary-General Angel Gurria said.

"It is imperative that governments use every possible means at their disposal to help jobseekers, especially young people, by removing barriers to job creation and investing in their education and skills," said Gurria. He presented the report in Paris, where the think tank is headquartered.

...

Indeed, the OECD is worried that the drop in low-skilled jobs is a permanent, structural phenomenon that will not be reversed when growth resumes.

This explains a lot. Florida Ignores FBI Database When Granting Gun Carry Permits | ThinkProgress

Florida may be missing vital pieces of information when it screens concealed carry permit applications because it does not check the FBI’s National Instant Criminal Background Check System (NICS). NICS contains 1.6 million records of people nationwide with mental illness. The Department of Agriculture and Consumer Services, which screens permit applications, does run applicants names’ through four databases, but none contain nationwide data on mental illness

So if you're certifiably crazy, you can come to Florida and get your concealed carry permit. Yay!

Eugene Robinson: The GOP’s crime against voters - The Washington Post

Quotable:

"I wrote that voter ID was a solution in search of a problem. I was wrong: The problem seems to be that too many of the wrong kind of voters — low-income, urban, African American, Hispanic — are showing up at the polls. Republican candidates have been vowing to “take back” the country. Now we know how."

I suppose that the GOP has given up on the Hispanic vote...

Tee Hee....

Charlie needs to cut back to an Economics is hard a day.

What the hell do small business owners know? Rally time!!

KarmaPolice wrote:

Restaurants, in particular, have A LOT of upfront costs.

You are saying starting in over your head is the way to go. There are smarter way to test you skills and the market place. I have looked at doing a start up restaurant with my kid.

burnside wrote:

KP, have you owned or managed a restaurant?

Does it matter?

It does if you anticipate anyone will give weight to your assertions on the subject. Otherwise not.

Yes, well be sure the kid knows it involves being there 7 days a week and usually way longer than 8 hours a day if you want it to work.

KarmaPolice wrote:

Most small businesses are simply managed very poorly.

Many more reasons for failure: Bad business idea, bad location, bad timing, not realizing you have to mind the store full time. It is a tough business.
A friend had a friend who made his business picking up the pieces of failed restaurants on El Camino Real in Palo Alto/Menlo Park. A field of broken dreams where the build it and they will come crashes and burns.

From the last post:

Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and Bank of America Corp. say a weaker-than-forecast June jobs gain in the U.S. will lead the Federal Reserve to keep its benchmark interest rate at almost zero until the middle of 2015.

Again, the benchmark rate will never be raised again.

It's looking more and more like we will actually collapse, completely. Should be interesting Got Popcorn?

Comrade Kristina wrote:

So if you're certifiably crazy, you can come to Florida and get your concealed carry permit. Yay!

in most tragic officer-involved shootings, the perpetrator was a felon, but got the gun illegally (straw purchase etc) and avoided the usual checks anyway. felons just do not want to go back to jail, period, by any means necessary. while i think its great to have checks, its a great big policy lie that just makes us all feel better.

curious wrote:

"The growing share of income going to top earners suggests that this group now has a greater capacity to pay taxes than before" the OECD said.

I look forward to the OvenMitt addressing this in the debates. Perhaps his Swiss/Cayman Island bank accounts employ a few islanders.

Wink

Comrade Kristina wrote:

Yes, well be sure the kid knows it involves being there 7 days a week and usually way longer than 8 hours a day if you want it to work.

She has moved to other ideas. Likes time off and Cash, and no, I dont need a receipt .

I have looked at doing a start up restaurant with my kid.

Go for it!, and best of luck in your venture.

Lobbyist Ben Dover wrote:

I have looked at doing a start up restaurant with my kid.

Good luck. It is never pleasant to fire a family member. Especially your own child.

dwb wrote:

while i think its great to have checks, its a great big policy lie that just makes us all feel better.

Read somewhere that domestic disturbances are the most common threat to police officers.

burnside wrote:

It does if you anticipate anyone will give weight to your assertions on the subject...

There is plenty of data to show the failure rate of restaurants. And if you don't want to look at the data, simply be observant.

The only thing worse than being part of a family business is working for one. Been there, done that.

Oh I give them respect until I hear them open their mouths.

You're right, KP. I have heard the utterings of a million small businesses all across this country, and they sing a chorus of damned foolery.

Which is why I'm all for big biz. And voting for Romney. Woo hoo! Can't wait.

I think you and I are on the same team here. Wink

BEN f reports many fiends of his younger daze who failed in biz & went to tye Indies or Jamaica. What small biz needs is to bE paid. I got paid. Therefore I am optomistic! That elusive pot of gold

KarmaPolice wrote:

There is plenty of data to show the failure rate of restaurants. And if you don't want to look at the data, simply be observant.

So no, then.

Rob Dawg wrote:
8 month low, first negative hiring reading in 6. Almost as if it is trying to say something.

Sebastian will be along shortly to interpret it for you.

Nope, I'm about ready to give up on it.

Sebastian

dilbert dogbert wrote:

A field of broken dreams where the build it and they will come crashes and burns.

Back when I was remodeling my kitchen, I enjoyed talking to the used appliance salesman at the restaurant supply center.

BTW, the small business index does not jibe with what i am seeing. Maybe its the real estate and retail bent, but most people i know in are phenomenally busy and getting busier.

dilbert dogbert wrote:

Read somewhere that domestic disturbances are the most common threat to police officers.

"poor people often live in clusters"

~ Cartman.

burnside wrote:

KP, have you owned or managed a restaurant?

I'd be keen to hear about any - any - actual experience in business activity, period. I'll take the under, however, as we will get more airy dilettante by way of response to the inquiry (should we any response at all).

Sebastian wrote:

Nope, I'm about ready to give up on it.

Give up on explaining why it's not a recession, or throwing in the towel and admitting it might be one?

(no snark, looking for what you menat).

Besides "Mama's favorite meatloaf, drowned in gravy, side of tater", what else does America actually MAKE?

Houses! Construction is up, housing has bottomed.

Get with the program.

Heh. I erased a response involving the d-word.

curious wrote:

Its not easy being green :A lower reading this month creates more room for growth next month.

Isn't that what revisions are for?

Outsider wrote:

Which is why I'm all for big biz. And voting for Romney. Woo hoo! Can't wait.

At the rate of party deterioration, he might not even make it onto the ballot.

Perhaps Ru Paul is still running?

Barclays Libor Scandal: Who Knew? Seven And A Half Things To Know

07/10/2012 7:48 am

"Thing One: The Fed's True Libors: It's a good thing no one on earth cares about this Libor scandal, because otherwise the Fed would be in so much trouble right now.

The United States central bank straight-up confesses to Reuters that, oh yeah, sure, it knew all about Libor shenanigans waaaay back in 2007, even before the Wall Street Journal wrote about it. It seems the New York Fed got a tip from some bank called, let us check here, Bar-Clays? Does that sound right? Bar-Clays? It seems this bank told the Fed about problems with the setting of Libor, an interest rate that is so pervasive in our daily lives that you were probably drinking a little Libor in your coffee just now. Not only that, but the Fed talked to Barclays about Libor approximately eleventy gazillion times after the initial tip. Not only that, but it also drew up a list of suggestions for Barclays and UK banking authorities about how to fix the Libor market. Which list of suggestions were promptly crumpled up into a ball and tossed in the coal oven for warmth because it's dismal in the UK in the winter, guvnah.

So, fast forward to today, and the Libor market never got fixed, despite everybody knowing about its problems. That bank, Barclays, is paying about $450 million in fines over Libor, its chairman and CEO have resigned (chairman Marcus Agius testified this morning before a parliamentary committee), and a whole mess of other banks are under investigation, too. And attention is finally turning, as it should, to why the regulators had their heads firmly implanted in their own behinds for so long, The New York Times writes (I'm paraphrasing). "

ac wrote:

U.S. heat over the past 13 months: a one in 1.6 million event

Why would an ac worry about this?

burnside - You have to learn to embrace your inner KP. Only then can you realize she's really not as offensive as she seems.

Outsider wrote:

Get with the program.

We make college grads sometimes too. Grade

Outsider wrote:

You're right, KP. I have heard the utterings of a million small businesses all across this country, and they sing a chorus of damned foolery.

Lets take a coffee break

"I hear America whining", a favorite Whitman poem...

Romney/Satan 2012

Outsider wrote:

Not surprising when you realize most of the headlines are put out by the same source.

Steve

Perhaps Ru Paul is still running?

There's always hope he can put Romney as VP.

energyecon wrote:

I'd be keen to hear about any - any - actual experience in business activity...

And who exactly are you?

I thought that was penned by Phil Gramm and his lovely wife Wendy.

If any of us were humorless, we wouldn't get the point of this blog.

Outsider wrote:

If any of us were humorless, we wouldn't get the point of this blog.

Data-driven economic analysis, like, DUH!!!

There's a point? Why was I not informed of this?

Comrade Kristina wrote:

I thought that was penned by Phil Gramm and his lovely wife Wendy.

These interracial marriages are ruining America. What's next? Man on dog sex?

Eric wrote:

Besides "Mama's favorite meatloaf, drowned in gravy, side of tater", what else does America actually MAKE?

Actually, we make plenty of stuff...Every company that I've worked for in the last 22 years has made stuff, and made at least some of it here in the US. Of course, quite a bit of it is high value stuff like instruments for semiconductor processing or the ICs themselves, so it's not the kind of thing you'd find in your living room or bedroom. Perhaps that's why you can't see it...

It was posted all over the secret forum, CK. Wink

There's a point? Why was I not informed of this?

Laughing out loud

The blog about nothing. Worked for Seinfeld. And how many Ferraris does he own?

KarmaPolice wrote:

And who exactly are you?

I recently read that superglue eaten in moderate quantities negates the hidden gluten in diets, perhaps you should give it a try.

I still haven't been invited to the secret forum.. Sad

New Keyboard

You have to apply it to fingertips to get the best effect, I've heard.

Cinco-X wrote:

ac wrote:

U.S. heat over the past 13 months: a one in 1.6 million event

Why would an ac worry about this?

Becuse they don't understand the non=random nature of the biased measurements.

I don't know about eating it but sniffing the fumes it gives off when you sand it off a surface can kill you. It releases cyanide gas iirc. My ex bf used to use it to seal pool cues before putting on the clear coat finishes. It does a great job but don't sand it in a non ventilated area and without a mask.

Outsider wrote:

You have to apply it to fingertips to get the best effect, I've heard.

Glue ten for best results

Glue-ten for best results

New Keyboard

How am I supposed to leave this place for the summer when you make comments like that.

ResistanceIsFeudal wrote:

Glue ten for best results

(clap)

ResistanceIsFeudal wrote:

Glue ten for best results

Laughing out loud

Cinco-X wrote:

urious wrote:
:A lower reading this month creates more room for growth next month.
Isn't that what revisions are for?

Then they screwed the pooch here- they should have put out a bullshit high number and revised it down next month so that next month's number can be an improvement. Snark

Just one man's observation:

I've owned my own business for the past 7 years. I'm also in the process of writing my business plan for another.

Most small businesses fail because they are undercapitalized. Restaurants are a tough gig because there are so many upfront costs for equipment, food, etc. So easy to lose your shirt if you don't understand your costs. Most people would be very surprised to know what the net margins are, even for a successful restaurant. It's usually in the single digits (except for those rare "celebrity chef" situations, but even those aren't guaranteed to succeed.)

Nanoo-Nanoo wrote:

I recently read that superglue eaten in moderate quantities negates the hidden gluten in diets, perhaps you should give it a try.

Was it difficult to remove your head afterwards?

lawyerliz wrote:

How's the hub nanoo?

Knee is almost back to normal (or normal for him). Thanks Liz.

How about you and your family?

Restaurants are a tough gig because there are so many upfront costs for equipment, food, etc.

Not to mention the grueling work hours.

Rob, just enjoy the 'statistic', won't you? Partisans rage, and then climate goes about its business unaware.

HG should really be here for this thread, but I have a hunch he's too busy working.

This continues to perplex me. VaR is used to calculate the market general risk - the risk of market prices moving against you due to general market conditions. This is in contrast to market specific risk - the risk intrinsic to the asset. I can't imagine that their risk assessment would consider only general risk and not specific risk or that it would only use VaR for its internal models.

And yet another reason to never use "anti-bacterial anything" around children:

YouTube - Pets Make For Healthier Babies

Eric wrote:

(no snark, looking for what you menat).

"Meant" or "Mentat "

Outsider wrote:

burnside - You have to learn to embrace your inner KP. Only then can you realize she's really not as offensive as she seems.

Who is "she"?

YouTube - Pets Make For Healthier Babies

Woo hoo! Hopefully congress will make it a law requiring all families with one year olds to own dogs. Wink

Outsider wrote:

How am I supposed to leave this place for the summer when you make comments like that.

Been suffering (cousin of Osama) the stomach flu Sick and have been in no moooood for HCN, work, or basically anything but getting over it... today health bars are restored

Sorry... penguin is leaving for an extended time back among friends and family in the Antarctic?

Outsider wrote:

Not to mention the grueling work hours.

I refuse to eat at any restaurant that serves gruel.

Who is "she"?

I thought KP was a she - no?

Anyway, it's hard to tell with pseudonyms.

Hub ok, puts off retirement more. DAUGHTER working as architect --mixed rez & commercial. Son tutoring % doing home improvements for us, until next semester. Paid, does good job.) Me, my bills are paid, for now. ALL CATZ MEOWING BRISKLY.

Yancey Ward wrote:

Then they screwed the pooch here- they should have put out a bullshit high number and revised it down next month so that next month's number can be an improvement.

Savvy...you should work for a bank...

burnside wrote:

Rob, just enjoy the 'statistic', won't you? Partisans rage, and then climate goes about its business unaware.

Ohhh.... alright. Wink
Lovely morning here in bustling Idaho Falls. A little breakfast and a sight or two then Tetons and Yellowstone. Check my recent links for a nice Bryce shot. The aviary in SLC was cool as in neat as the city was sweltering.

Rob Dawg wrote:

A little breakfast and a sight or two then Tetons

familyblog!

This is in contrast to market specific risk - the risk intrinsic to the asset. I can't imagine that their risk assessment would consider only general risk and not specific risk or that it would only use VaR for its internal models.

You mean like how the highesst rated/lowest yielding tranches of MBS/CDS were modeled to be "safe as treasuries" so when the banks couldn't sell them (why buy them when they yielded the same as treasuries) they kept them on the books. Better yet the models said they were as risk less as treasuries so no need to reserve for a loss right?

Comrade Kristina wrote:

The only thing worse than being part of a family business is working for one. Been there, done that.

My dad has stories.

I'm glad that business wasn't around when I was a kid. Smile

Outsider wrote:

I thought KP was a she - no?

I always thought that the "chicks" here were smarter than KP...maybe not...

Idaho Falls? you're in Broward land!?

Glad you're getting better RiF. People are trying to pull me out of the CR matrix. It's like being stuck in the birth canal. "Come out here." "No! No! I don't want to go!" "Time for the force-eps"

And with that... Have a good day, all.

Good to hear that life is good Liz.

Now if we could only slay BofA for good and forever our lives would be complete!

lawyerliz wrote:

ALL CATZ MEOWING BRISKLY.

God's in his heaven
all's right with the world

lawyerliz wrote:

ALL CATZ MEOWING BRISKLY.

They want to go for a car ride. With their little heads catching the breeze.

Cinco-X wrote:

Who is "she"?

"IT" is a she for sure.

ResistanceIsFeudal wrote:

Idaho Falls? you're in Broward land!?

I think Broward's currently in Alexandria, Virginia...

Agronox wrote:

God's in his heaven
all's right with the world

Meow translation, roughly, "Crazy lady happy. We get fed for sure!"

ResistanceIsFeudal wrote:

Meow translation, roughly, "Crazy lady happy. We get fed for sure!"

Fat Cat is faaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaat!

The PFG Cash Shortfall Crisis: Here's What We Know So Far - Business Insider

The big topic within the finance community this morning is the suspension of Iowa-based brokerage firm PFGBest and Chicago-based investment funds Peregrine Financial Group and Peregrine Asset Management — all controlled by online trading pioneer Russel R. Wasendorf Sr., according to Bloomberg's Matthew Leising — after regulators discovered a $200 million cash shortfall in the two latter firms' customer accounts.

At the same time, Wasendorf apparently tried to commit suicide (unsuccessfully).

The matter of the missing money sounds eerily similar to what happened last year with MF Global.

Hoo-boy....

I wondered why Europe was rallying this morning.

You mean like how the highesst rated/lowest yielding tranches of MBS/CDS were modeled to be "safe as treasuries" so when the banks couldn't sell them (why buy them when they yielded the same as treasuries) they kept them on the books. Better yet the models said they were as risk less as treasuries so no need to reserve for a loss right?

That was a clear case of regulatory arbitrage. The NRSRO's gave high ratings to dreck, and the regulatory capital requirements - for banking book and for market specific risk - were tied to ratings. It should also be said that the pari passu bonds in RMBS deals had so much credit support that few of them actually defaulted. CDO's, on the other hand, were a completely different story.

I think VaR is a dodge here. Correlation desks do not use it to manage their risks, and in the above article, even Jamie Dimon says he doesn't really concern himself with it.

Cinco-X wrote:

I always thought that the "chicks" here were smarter than KP...maybe not...

So does this mean you're a man?

ResistanceIsFeudal wrote:

Meow translation, roughly, "Crazy lady happy. We get fed for sure!"

Favorite dog poem:

You gonna eat that?
You gonna eat that?'
I'll eat that.

Cinco-X wrote:

The PFG Cash Shortfall Crisis: Here's What We Know So Far - Business Insider
The big topic within the finance community this morning is the suspension of Iowa-based brokerage firm PFGBest and Chicago-based investment funds Peregrine Financial Group and Peregrine Asset Management — all controlled by online trading pioneer Russel R. Wasendorf Sr., according to Bloomberg's Matthew Leising — after regulators discovered a $200 million cash shortfall in the two latter firms' customer accounts.
At the same time, Wasendorf apparently tried to commit suicide (unsuccessfully).
The matter of the missing money sounds eerily similar to what happened last year with MF Global.

I didn't think MF Global would be a one-off. The erosion of trust continues apace.

Not sure why he was so worried that he tried suicide. Corzine is still walking around free as a bird.

Cinco-X wrote:

Hoo-boy....

Paging traderwalt...
.
I am curious as to why futures firms are the financial entities showing the largest signs of stress in the last 6-8 months. Eric? Traderwalt? Bueller?

Have had dealings with Peregrine. Better a late suspension than none at all.

Lurking Lawyer wrote:

Not sure why he was so worried that he tried suicide. Corzine is still walking around free as a bird.

I don't know if I would want someone handling my money who can't succeed in killing himself.

Yeah, you get the sense his heart really wasn't into it. I expect my financial advisors to be go-getters.

thanks to the distaff side for this mornings laugh....I needed one today...

Yancey Ward wrote:

I didn't think MF Global would be a one-off. The erosion of trust continues apace.

Let's see...was MF Global teh one Corzine was involved with? In any event, I think you're right. In fact, this time around it might be a run on money management organizations that triggers the major global collapse, not a bank run...

I don't know if I would want someone handling my money who can't succeed in killing himself.

I don't know if I would want someone handling my money someone who makes customer money disappear.

yagij wrote:

I am curious as to why futures firms are the financial entities showing the largest signs of stress in the last 6-8 months. Eric? Traderwalt? Bueller?

I'm guessing (but have no direct knowledge) that it's because the money is easier to steal (no actual stocks, so no SIPC).

Whiskey wrote:

I don't know if I would want someone handling my money someone who makes customer money disappear.

And... it's gone!

Eric wrote:

I'm guessing (but have no direct knowledge) that it's because the money is easier to steal (no actual stocks, so no SIPC).

As in "crap, I need to make a margin call. I'll just grab some of this here cash and replace it later" kind of "steal"?

pavel.chichikov wrote:

Favorite dog poem:
You gonna eat that?
You gonna eat that?'
I'll eat that.

Also applies to Fed balance sheet? Smile

And... it's gone!

On the other hand, if the man proved that he could kill himself successfully, then maybe he's the right choice.

Whiskey wrote:

On the other hand, if the man proved that he could kill himself successfully, then maybe he's the right choice.

And here I was hoping it would be bankers that off themselves. /1930s

yagij wrote:

As in "crap, I need to make a margin call. I'll just grab some of this here cash and replace it later" kind of "steal"?

Well, that, and because SIPC isn't on the hook, they don't have any interest in policing it.

yagij wrote:

And here I was hoping it would be bankers that off themselves

to the Channel Islands and the Caribbean... wish granted!

dwb wrote:

while i think its great to have checks, its a great big policy lie that just makes us all feel better.

how do you feel about various tracking technologies?

Eric wrote:

because SIPC isn't on the hook, they don't have any interest in policing it.

Oy. So why would I use such a service again? Puzzled

KarmaPolice wrote:

At the rate of party deterioration, he might not even make it onto the ballot.

now I know you're crazy

I'm guessing that Peregrian's customers in Iowa were mostly grain farmers/traders. Chicago's Board of Trade in crop futures is probably watching this unfold also.

pavel.chichikov wrote:

Favorite dog poem:

You gonna eat that?
You gonna eat that?'
I'll eat that.

At least dogs can write poems that rhyme...

I'm taking Outsider's advice. Join me - sit back and enjoy the show.

"British judge rejects bid by residents of a London high-rise to stop having their building used as a missile base during the Olympics "

The terrorists are winning.

"We have nothing to fear, but fear itself"

Scary stuff. Most of my meager wealth is in an Interactive Brokers account. They seem solid, but people were probably saying that about MF Global too. Puzzled

Dickeylee wrote:

Chicago's Board of Trade in crop futures is probably watching this unfold also.

And just like with MF Global, I expect they will just watch.

Eric wrote:

And just like with MF Global, I expect they will just watch.

Those regulatory agency doors ain't gonna revolve themselves, yo!

Eric, you're in Chicago, right?

I am curious as to why futures firms are the financial entities showing the largest signs of stress in the last 6-8 months. Eric? Traderwalt? Bueller?

Here you go....

Angry Brokers Leave Firms — and Take $59B with Them

But what do I know I am just a speculator.

shill wrote:

But what do I know I am just a speculator.

I have to wonder if speculator has the same Latin root as Speculum....

Cinco-X wrote:

I have to wonder if speculator has the same Latin root as Speculum....

Both usually involve looking at aNo one 17 and under admittedholes...

Dickeylee wrote:

Eric, you're in Chicago, right?

Yeah, but I've never been much into the futures markets personally.... I've done arb books for funds, but that was all with top-tier brokers and such (although, heh, "back in the day" our clearing firm was BSC).

Eric wrote:

"back in the day" our clearing firm was BSC

We are going to go to the judges' table to see if it is a valid Duke Point

Laughing all the way to the bank assholes that is Smile

American Capital Agency Corp., AGNC Stock Quote - (NASDAQ) AGNC, American Capital Agency Corp. Stock Price

Ya $35 smells just as sweet as the $ 28, $29 $30 $31 $32 $ 33 $ 34 priors...

( Whispers ) go speculators I mean assholes.

Isn't there a special investigator involved in the MF Global colapse?

yagij wrote:

We are going to go to the judges' table to see if it is a valid

ooooo.... and a 4.5 from the French judge!

Comrade Kristina wrote:

I thought that was penned by Phil Gramm and his lovely wife Wendy.

KP is Wendy Gramm? That explains a lot.

Dickeylee wrote:

I'm guessing that Peregrian's customers in Iowa were mostly grain farmers/traders. Chicago's Board of Trade in crop futures is probably watching this unfold also.

How nice of them to watch.

Mook wrote:

Those regulatory agency doors ain't gonna revolve themselves, yo!

Laughing out loud

Fat Cat | Vampire Squid from Hell
------|------
Economics is hard | Steve

Dickeylee wrote:

Isn't there a special investigator involved in the MF Global colapse?

Isn't his name Corzine?

Outsider wrote:

Small biz may not be perfect, but it's the backbone of our economy, so better give some respect.

More than half of total employment is by businesses employing over 500 people.
Lot of people at 100-500 employee corps also.

steinly wrote:

Lot of people at 100-500 employee corps also.

Fat Cat : Yaaaaawwwn

Cash, and no, I dont need a receipt -> Beyond Bankerdome

shill wrote:

I am curious as to why futures firms are the financial entities showing the largest signs of stress in the last 6-8 months. Eric? Traderwalt? Bueller?

I have no idea. I don't know of any published figures on financial health of clearing firms. The CME is supposed to monitor this. Maybe the CFTC, too, but I really don't know.

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