Agronox - and we still had work for people to do.

We still do, but back then it was easier for a cotton picker to change over and work in a factory assembly line, or pick fruit than it is to become a "good" computer analyst or programmer. As in they can actually do the required work.

Kauai_Kahuna wrote:

but back then it was easier

Many of the jobs in 1929-1938 were menial, or semi-skilled as best. There were authors and journalists around, but no bloggers or system administrators. The guys that ended up doing CCC or WPA tasks, might have been day laborers, share croppers [1], or low-skill factory workers before the crash. There are few low-skilled factory jobs today.

[1] I have a digital image of a 1936 Florida DOT map for the county that I live in. One of the symbols on it puzzled me for the longest time. A few weeks back I found a symbol legend for maps from that era. The mysterious symbol meant 'tenant farm'. A symbol likely no longer applicable in 2012.

FRED Graph - FRED - St. Louis Fed

Same chart as last time, modified to combine both Fed stimulus efforts (MBS + QE)

Red is consumer debt take-on, YOY.
Yellow is monthly job losses (right axis)
Blue is Fed intervention
Green is YOY increase in government spending

Didn't someone link the Cowboy Junkies recently? I see they're coming to Portsmouth, NH for their summer outdoor series in August.

Edit: yup, I see it was JD.

RayOnTheFarm wrote:

The guys that ended up doing CCC or WPA tasks, might have been day laborers, share croppers [1], or low-skill factory workers before the crash. There are few low-skilled factory jobs today.

CCC, yes, but the WPA employed a lot of writers, photographers, artists, etc.

Prelinger Library Blog: WPA guides and Federal Writers' Project publications

I call that graph

Set the Controls for the Hear of the Sun 

The idea that our economic goal should be to train everybody to do high skilled work is a perfect example of how the corporatist oligarchs have taken over the Democratic party. When you train too many people to be nurses or computer programmers they don't all find good jobs and live happily ever after - instead the pay for those jobs plummets. That's the real goal of our corporate overlords to begin with - to make sure there are no jobs for which they have to pay more than they want to pay.

The only real solution is dignity and a living wage for every job, not having more people compete for the few remaining decent jobs.

I'm guessing there were more people dependant on one paycheck in the GD
than now due to household size. That might be a silver lining if you can call it
that.

So which part of the ThinkProgress article is "BS"?

Well its missed the REAL story hasn't it - clue for me was "Hours after ..merger" and "doesn’t disparage his former employer,"

say wot ? a quick google and ..

North Carolina agencies investigating Duke Energy CEO shuffle - Chicago Tribune

The decision came as a surprise to many Duke shareholders, Wall Street analysts, and utility commissio>ns that had approved the deal.

Standard & Poor's said it was reevaluating credit ratings for Duke and its utilities, citing the management news. "The sudden shift in management raises concerns about effective corporate governance, ..."

Replacing Johnson "can only be described as an incredible act of bad faith with regard to the undertakings of the merger agreement," John Mullin, former lead director at Progress,..."the most blatant example of corporate deceit that I have witnessed," Mullin wrote.

So what's afoot heh ? pretty rivalries Humayun and his cheating lying brothers style ? say it ain't so in modern corporate Amrika. perhaps skeletons in the closet ? that's more like it - but in which company's closet heh ?

These and other questions could have been something that the reporter Rebecca Leber could have chased. Now THAT would be THINKING PROGRESS.

Agree 1000% and why I'm pissed at Krugman and Delong half the time.

I got soundly hooted off DeLong's site once making this point. I was pissed at first - now I consider it a badge of honor.

Not one of those folks had ever walked a factory floor or warehouse and understood what I meant by 'lights out'. Even worse none did it 30 years ago and knew the difference between then and now. Offices are going through that same transition - see many steno pools lately? Drafting departments? Anyone remember the card file BOM and 'scheduling department'? Actual 'blue print' machines and vellum? File cabinets? Typewriters? Copy paper?

I could go on and on. Ain't coming back. Jobs aren't either.

albrt wrote:

The only real solution is dignity and a living wage for every job, not having more people compete for the few remaining decent jobs.

I agree - to leave "earning a living for an entire lifetime" to the whims of an elite who have clearly demonstrated they don't give a damn and so, projecting forward, won't give a damn is no longer an option.

But WHAT IS TO BE DONE ? ( V.I. Lenin ) heh ? no not that either.

Is that Uncle Billy who once climbed Mt. Pelerin? Long time! I remember you from Pete Viles' RE blog at the LA Times.

Feckless Ness wrote:

I'm sure his planned exit was all negotiated before the merger.

I thought so at first too - the triggering of the severance pay clause looked a little convenient - reading the chicago tribune take on it ( THinkProgress take note !), it looks like it was clearly planned by the board - but not the ousted CEO - what's that they say in poker circles ? if you don't know who the patsy is at the table, its YOU !

There could be something else afoot of course - like a quick look at the books post merger and ARGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGHHHHHHH . I've seen THAT happen.

Agronox wrote:

I consider myself lucky to have attended high school right just a few years before they got rid of their shop programs.

Me too, although it convinced me woodworking was NOT one of my skills.

I remember sniffing that stuff - school tests.

I took woodworking, metal shop, and horticultural classes along with college prep classes as I had no illusion of having a clue on what I would end up doing. This of course was in the early 80s.
If only I could have learned how to spell and write better.

Ah, yes. The ditto machine with purple ink and a hand crank. My mom made her classroom handouts on one of those.

There are always going to be sector shifts, but the difference is that during booms the laid off will find new jobs easily. I think we may be overestimating the amount of training a person needs to become (at least minimally) proficient when switching professions.

I don't think you see the real effect of sector shifts until you have one of these busts. That is my point. The technology was there to a great degree - a few early adopters were into it but most were not. Most weren't that adventuresome and they weren't forced to make those choices.

Then comes a crash and stresses everyone. Only those organizations with the best technology and lowest cost survive. And they don't go back afterward - its a one way portal. Those tied to the old are economic casualties.

That was the 30s with farm technology. It was the 70s with mfg technology. It is now with office automation. The technologies didn't create the dislocation, they took advantage of the crashes to plant the new and overcome resistance to the old technology.

Feckless Ness wrote:

Ah, yes. The ditto machine with purple ink and a hand crank. My mom made her classroom handouts on one of those.

It's incredible how long they lasted. Yagij talks about the Ed scams, but my 3rd grade teacher mom tells me they finally got their first Xerox in her building in... 1989. And use of it was heavily restricted.

9 PM Mountain and it is still 100° in St. George, UT. Ouch. Wine almost chilled. Nom.

Feckless Ness wrote:

There's a 75 year-old secretary in my office who hoards a few shreds of carbon paper.

had lunch with some of the wife's new found friends - hubby subcontinent origin high 60s retired tells us - when I got my MBBS there were just 4 antibiotics - and he rattled their names off, and says now there are 120 names docs have to know.

Rob Dawg wrote:

Wine almost chilled. Nom.

a balmy 77 in T.O. - no jobs though - people at the do talking about the loss of biochem jobs and the change in mood at Amgen - lots of hatred for the company internally.

the opinion is that underwater in house means people can't/won't sell and means people are trapped in their jobs - and not doing them well either.

Missed the WW's (could have enlisted for II).

Just the mini boom bust that happened in the 80's was pretty intense in fly over country. Here in Hawaii we got hit with the crash of the free money from Japan also that caused a small drop in house prices. Too bad at the time I was locked out of the credit markets because I was, well; poor.
We did not have a turn around until 1998 when the champagne started flowing again on wall street for housing everywhere.

A question for our real estate gurus... what are the chances that a house that's listed as bank-owned and on Zillow for more than 500 days is beyond repair, especially in a wet, temperate climate such as Western Oregon?

It's trully wonderful to be of mind to now understand how my grand parents and my parents just piddled their day away after they were no longer in the work force or had the responsiblity of a family. How I wish when I had the opportunity to learn woodworking, plumbing or a little electrial I had taken that time to learn things I now need to know but don't. How I envy my neighbor who is a retired CFO who learned those things since just this week he pulled out his saw and replaced all the show wood on their home and painted the entire two story @ 75 years of age.

Agronox wrote:

I consider myself lucky to have attended high school right just a few years before they got rid of their shop programs. It was really nice to get my feet wet with very basic architectural drafting, auto repair, and woodworking.

At my engineering school in the mid to late 50's us mech students had to learn to use all the machine shop tools plus welding. Not sure it helped me on the job but it is nice to have those skills when needed.

If Amgen ever moved, wow that would be too horrible to consider.

Factoid: for much of the 20th century Detroit was the wealthiest city in America on a per capita basis. Automotive was the most profitable industry. Included the 1930s. Now look at it.

A better set of questions to ask is WHEN will Amgen leave or become irrelevant AND where do we go from here?

Hear many asking that? If not then worry.

skk wrote:

people at the do talking about the loss of biochem jobs and the change in mood at Amgen - lots of hatred for the company internally.

Here's why: Amgen - About Amgen - Leadership Team

Perfect way to ruin a Biotech firm. Idiots.

MaryAnn wrote:

How I wish when I had the opportunity to learn woodworking, plumbing or a little electrial I had taken that time to learn things I now need to know but don't.

It's not hard to learn how to do,...doing them well just takes,....well, doing them. Seriously.
That and the correct tools, which, if you have the time to do things manually, aren't too expensive.

It's dramatic how much better the U.S. has done than typical after a big asset bubble. Credit to...well, Obama and democrats on the political side.

The only compliment I give them is: it could have been worse.

sdtfs wrote:

It's not hard to learn how to do,...doing them well just takes,....well, doing them. Seriously.
That and the correct tools, which, if you have the time to do things manually, aren't too expensive.

This is true. I learned enough carpentry and electrical to demolish an entire section of our 1913 home and install a period-accurate kitchen (well, not exactly appliance accurate, but practically everything else.) I look forward to doing it again -- soon as I can find an appropriate house.

The unemployment problem is both structural and cyclical

Exactly. Which is why only attacking one or the other and not both simultaneously is such a fools errand.

But we got lots of fools to keep busy so I guess it works.

Uncle Billy Cunctator wrote:

If Amgen ever moved, wow that would be too horrible to consider.

I heard some choice tales - never mind Amgen moving - there's a rot that's set in there's a real question mark over it now ? a take over by a generic manufacturer - ( nope nope I'm NOT nor is anybody related to me shorting AMGEN ) - they've reached out instinctively to outsourcing many essential functions of the process towards licensing - but this means of course that the IP goes out with it - I heard tales of how generics manufacturers are on the ball and measure themselves on that - of how many days after launch ( down from 17 to a record 3 ) before they've started recreating - of course they get sued but if they don't lose - Boooyah !

Amazing stuff of where the "other" generic pharma are at and how do they get the inside dope - for one thing - the key process is drug retaling is NOT discovery - its licenture now - and if you outsource the process that leads to that - you've lost control of all the kinks that delay, and divert that process.

TJ and The Bear wrote:

Unless, of course, you're interested in purchasing Conejo Valley real estate on the cheap.

The new Grosse Point.

Rob Dawg wrote:

Here's why: Amgen - About Amgen - Leadership Team

Perfect way to ruin a Biotech firm. Idiots.

thanks !

dryfly wrote:

I don't think you see the real effect of sector shifts until you have one of these busts.....Only those organizations with the best technology and lowest cost survive. And they don't go back afterward - its a one way portal.

This only helps explain part of the depth of the bust. It doesn't speak to the recovery phase. Consider: why was the recovery so strong in 1933-1937, so fast? Adding the additional factors points to necessary solutions now.

That's one way to do it. Before the SHTF I was working in commercial real estate. A guy who has a business school named after him was out at a local golf course or something, passed by and saw one of my signs. He called me up, we chatted, and then he asked me to find him the best 10 buildings in the Conejo Valley. I happened to know someone who owned 10 great buildings (among them some of the best and newest) and we did the deal within a couple of weeks. At the time I thought... that's really curious... he really doesn't seem that concerned about price.

Dryfly, I don't dispute that there's a structural element. In fact, and as I said, the problem is danger of becoming intensely structural with every passing day that we don't get people back to work. I'd go so far as to say that we're in danger of creating yet another permanent underclass.

Having said that, if I agreed with the position that the entire problem is structural, I wouldn't be here chatting with you.

I'd be packing my bags right now and moving to another country. No snark, no exaggeration.

dryfly wrote:

How many CAD designers does it take to replace a whole drafting department of say 20 people?

At NASA they outsourced our machine shops after starving them for investment. The various divisions who could not wait to go through the contracting processes set up in house shops and bought CAD and CNC systems run by our in house mechanics. Maybe NASA hired top of the line mechanics but maybe not.

Consider: why was the recovery so strong in 1933-1937, so fast? Adding the additional factors points to necessary solutions now.

Make work. Seriously. CCC and WPA were make work. Some wonderful stuff but the question remains would it have stuck had there been no WWII? And people all point to the 'stimulus effect' of the war - yes it was there - but also we saw half the completion in the rest of the world totally go away. Leaving just us with capital and labor and resources. And our own market plus some of theirs even if initially just Mashall Plan demand.

There was a lot going on then besides just CCC and WPA. And the '37 "austerity"...

One goal of any "economy" would be to reduce the hours of labor required for equivalent output.

dryfly wrote:

but the question remains would it have stuck had there been no WWII?

Not in 1937. This interesting question: how we really recovered so powerfully by 1950, so many factors, but only a few that really dominated, I wrote a nice blog post on, too long to summarize well here.

l

I used to build websites using DreamWeaver/HTML. Well over half my time was spent on code issues, the rest on content. Now I use a drag and drop site builder (Weebly) and can spend 99% of my time on content. I saw an announcement today for a startup that will do the same thing to the app building process.

Feckless Ness wrote:

One goal of any "economy" would be to reduce the [hours of labor] input required for equivalent output.

So more hours and fewer machines is fine by you, huh? Why not go back to carbon paper and typewriters, then.

Some people will always want to see other people slaving away. Frees up the golf courses.

mhdoc wrote:

Now I use a drag and drop site builder (Weebly) and can spend 99% of my time on content. I saw an announcement today for a startup that will do the same thing to the app building process.

totally true - my buddy from this startup we were at reminisced about building SVM ( support vector machines which is an algorithm not a real thang ) models - 3 days ! on a grid computing enabled ( home rolled ) 8 core, each $9K each .. on a dataset reduced by samples - that's just a decade ago !

Now.. I build them on pizza box computers ( laptops !) -

dryfly wrote:

The problem is its global. There is no country to go to that is safe. The biggest push for automation is now in China. Even with dollar an hour labor. Automation is just that much better - higher quality and tighter tolerances.
It is a paradigm change we have to get through our heads and only then can realistic 'solutions' come forward. That in my opinion is the hardest part. Getting people to understand.

Amen. I've been thinking about this one for like 10 years now. One point to explore is that the classic reaction in an economy to drastic productivity gain is a rapid obsolence of old stuff, so that a lot of people feel that they have to upgrade. Rinse, repeat, ad infintum. We can see this in action now with Apple products for instance, or smart phones. Then there's the next piece of the puzzle: how far does obsolence take you. Well....probably not far enough, as you've presumed.

I've never seen a CAD system build an Airbus.

People building them sure use it. I see it everyday. And they do it faster and mostly better than ever before. The one problem is when it F/U it also does that faster and better. But CAD doesn't make engineers better - it makes good engineers vastly more productive. And bad engineers vastly more dangerous.

It isn't going away.

Are you trying to make a piece of sculpture or a working computer? You want a bike to hang on a wall or ride around?

"It has repaid, early, many of the international loans that kept it afloat. Unemployment is hovering around 6 percent, and falling. And while much of Europe is struggling to pull itself out of the recessionary swamp, Iceland’s economy is expected to grow by 2.8 percent this year. " Iceland’s Economy Is Mending Amid Europe’s Malaise - NY Times

azurite wrote:

It has repaid, early, many of the international loans that kept it afloat. Unemployment is hovering around 6 percent, and falling.

Don't panic but if you must panic, panic first.

Rob Dawg wrote:

Don't panic but if you must panic, panic first.

heh, panic just before most eveyone does, then do a Buffet, cause he's correct.

mp wrote:

All I'm saying is, that isn't the whole story.

well it is a progression innit - from typing pools to 1 manager 1 seccy to departmental secretary to .. adminstrative assistant to..

its not continuous by any means - each reduction is in quantums of human beings.

effect of rapid innovation during the overall time period (1930-1945)....

Two major drivers ... Agricultural innovation and Manhattan Project.

Iceland... right before Iceland blew up there was a big party in Reykjavik, "alternative investment" people from some of the largest banks. They had a bacchanal there, left, then, bang.

Battery dying - so are eyeballs ...

dryfly wrote:

Also don't underestimate the organizational 'innovation' that resulted from Manhattan.

Some of my favorite nonfiction is Richard Feynman's stories from his time at Los Alamos. Great insight into the bureaucracy there, and amazing accomplishments in spite of it.

josap wrote:

steampunk computer - Google Search

Gosh ! Thanks

been a little morose ever since leaving the do - one of the couples brought their pretty severely autistic ( adopted!) 15 year old daughter along - walks and feeds herself just fine but can't speak, sits quietly and watches the world keenly, OBD about toilet seat covers MUST be down ( quite amusing, hey boys need to be taught.. ) - oblivious to decorum - needs to be reminded to stop lifting her shirt to scratch - eats water-melons, lemons rind and all - we talked about WHAT NEXT as she moves from adolescence to adulthood - highly sobering discussion.

As we drove away - wife is also quiet and says - "people have such DIFFICULT lives, no ? "

Former Idealist wrote:

My reflex is that the doom has past....what yall think?

Ummm, I just got a copy of Ferfal's book that I asked for as a Father's Day gift. I'm starting a little later than some.

skk - severely autistic ( adopted!) 15 year old daughter along

That they adopted her speaks volumes for them, really.

sdtfs - I just got a copy of Ferfal's book

You will know the SHTF when I no longer leave the front door wide open.

Kauai_Kahuna wrote:

You will know the SHTF when I no longer leave the front door wide open.

Need webcam. I can't see your door from my front porch.

Uncle Billy Cunctator - The shoeshine boys won't get doomy. They don't exist anymore (or do they, somewhere?)

See them all the time at airports and in the FIRE parts of city's,
Heck, if your really good I'm sure you could make some change around military bases for people who have not bought all that stay bright stuff.
They just did not seem to fit well for me back in the day.

Feckless Ness - Need webcam. I can't see your door from my front porch.

I would not want to ruin your view, not cutting myself down, (some people here do it enough) but I'm not exactly a GQ model..

Oy. I don't even see the Geek Squad bugs out and about anymore. Do they still do that? Once in a while a van...

Former Idealist wrote:

Thanks for your reply but I'm not as smart as most here..... we gave up economic growth for....???? help

Extending the dream of rentiership to all Americans.

Former Idealist wrote:

My reflex is that the doom has past....what yall think?

It's like "Inception"; there are multiple levels of doom, and the mainstream doom still isn't anywhere near the real doom we know and debate here.

Extending the dream of rentiership to all Americans Rif

got it.

dryfly, always good to see you, but you have said goodnight how many times already tonight.
Get some sleep and enjoy your weekend.

Former Idealist wrote:

We traded speed for altitude. Good news; it worked. Bad news it only works once Rob

Thanks for your reply but I'm not as smart as most here..... we gave up economic growth for....???? help

The economy, well the financial system was in a steep dive in danger of crashing. You can apply the controls to level out and figure out what's wrong or you can over control and trade speed for altitude. Things look good for higher up as long as your speed holds out but if you stall from there because you traded too much speed for altitude you just crash from higher and your controls don't work either.

Consumer spending is the largest part of our economy, no? I can't believe people drive by all the for sale and for lease signs and still just don't get it.

Uncle Billy Cunctator wrote:

Consumer spending is the largest part of our economy, no? I can't believe people drive by all the for sale and for lease signs and still just don't get it.

The people who need to "get it" don't drive in those neighborhoods.

The economy, well the financial system was in a steep dive in danger of crashing. You can apply the controls to level out and figure out what's wrong or you can over control and trade speed for altitude. Things look good for higher up as long as your speed holds out but if you stall from there because you traded too much speed for altitude you just crash from higher and your controls don't work either. Rob

Thanks.

In my view, the financial system did fail.... exactly the moment when our masters ignored the law to save the system, for the so-called greater good.

It wasn't their call to make.

It was a coup

It is a coup.

When I was typing that I was actually thinking of Westwood, where I noticed today that about 1 in 10 stores were for lease. But from what I remember, yes, business is booming in Washington.

Uncle Billy Cunctator wrote:

But from what I remember, yes, business is booming in Washington.

When you're spending almost twice your income it shows.

TJ and The Bear wrote:

When you're spending almost twice your income it shows.

Just keeping up with the drones...

Kauai_Kahuna wrote:

I think the FED has reached a limit on what they can do

Au contraire -- they're just approaching the limit of what a legit CB can do. They can still go all banana republic on us and start monetizing like no one's done it before.

But we game the employment numbers...
http://www.sovereignman.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/07/070612rbjune-577x338.jpeg

Run the numbers based on labor participation rate and it doesn't look so pretty...

TJ and The Bear - Au contraire -- they're just approaching the limit of what a legit CB can do.

Granted, as long as they are on the last flight to the arc's. HINT, they are not in China.

Sigh, there's always North Dakota.

Kauai_Kahuna wrote:

Just to clarify, that is 1/3 deficit spending, two thirds income from tax's, etc.

More like 2/5's as long as we're being picky.

Uncle Billy Cunctator - Sigh, there's always North Dakota.

I have found I'm solar powered, that would be rough. But I may be able to live off of my small savings if I could find a house to live in.

skk wrote:

Former Idealist wrote:

It was a coup

It is a coup.

Yup Yup.

How so? Same people/interests are still in power, only more so.

My family settled in North Dakota in the 1850's. The ones that didn't die ended up in either Minneapolis or Winnipeg and thought they'd arrived in heaven.

TJ and The Bear - Like this?

I would have to add a brewery, a green house and an upper and lower garage. Upper for the snow mobile to get out in the winter.

Uncle Billy Cunctator - My family settled in North Dakota in the 1850's. The ones that didn't die ended up in either Minneapolis

Wow, we may be related.

Uncle Billy Cunctator wrote:

swears she won't end up working for DARPA

I would've loved to work for DARPA. Everyone gets caught up in the "D" & "A" bookends but it's the "ARP" that's uber cool.

FD: I subscribe to DARPA's youtube channel.

mhdoc wrote:

I saw an announcement today for a startup that will do the same thing to the app building process.

I built and wrote in journals about application generators in the late 70s. We have come a long way since and tools are getting exponentially better.

Humans cannot beat Moore's Law. Our whole social and political structure has to change if we want a humane "solution". We are eons away from it.

Kauai_Kahuna wrote:

The only weapon left is deficit spending

They got to him.

Feckless Ness wrote:

How so? Same people/interests are still in power, only more so.

ahhh - well aren't most coups like that ? meaning its when the elite can't control by regular means that the mask falls off and harsh repressive measures are taken to continue their dominance.
in this context it was the overthrow of the semblance of democracy. yup for sure there's harsh repressive measures and harsh repressive measures - I readily acknowledge that.

merchants of fear wrote:

Fascinating They got to him.

There are only two options: forced redistribution and/or deficit spending otherwise the economy shrinks, even nominally.

You choose.

merchants of fear - Fascinating They got to him.

Not really, but it is a tool. I will say I can understand it for brief periods to level out the budget and deal with both long term contracts committed to (such as SS, Med, pensions), and economic heart attacks.

Key to me is short term adjustments that politically must be adjusted and handled in the period of say 5 years.

You adjust and overcome. Not hide, point your finger and sell your soul to get re-elected. (Please understand I'm hitting all parties here).

Wow, turns out the braggot still taste pretty sweet to my dry taste, but it's actually 11% ABV.

Little past the full moon, but I'm kind of slow, so if I start howling at the moon.... Deal with it.

RE wrote:

There are only two options: forced redistribution and/or deficit spending otherwise the economy shrinks, even nominally.
You choose.

Maybe the economy needs to shrink unfortunately. Bubbles do that.
So some clawbacks, fines, and increasing taxes on the finance and corporate giants who have reserves now and didn't pay enough for years. Cut defense as Troyski suggested..

merchants of fear wrote:

the economy

Uncle Billy Cunctator wrote:

Aaaaah, Miracle On The Hudson.

Yeah, but we don't have Sully at the controls...

MBW - I'm going to take a look at it, as it's in a great location,

Consider it for a land value - tear down cost - rebuild cost + added value price. Offer it and if you can rehab for cheaper even better.
At 500+ days negotiations should be possible unless you live here in Hawaii and a few other places where a property can go decades at asking prices and not selling prices.

skk wrote:

for my sins I even know what IMS is

I knew IMS inside and out, DB and DC. Was a transaction guru.

Now

MBW wrote:

a house that's listed as bank-owned and on Zillow

MBW, any reason why you haven't posted a link? Not like anyone here's going to be fighting you for it, but several professionals here may be able to find additional information on the place you may not know of or have access to.

Plus the rest of us are curious.

Coffee break...
Remarks by Chairman Alan Greenspan
At the Meetings of the American Economic Association, San Diego, California
January 3, 2004
The economic world in which we function is best described by a structure whose parameters are continuously changing. The channels of monetary policy, consequently, are changing in tandem. An ongoing challenge for the Federal Reserve--indeed, for any central bank--is to operate in a way that does not depend on a fixed economic structure based on historically average coefficients. We often fit simple models only because we cannot estimate a continuously changing set of parameters without vastly more observations than are currently available to us. Moreover, we recognize that the simple linear functions underlying most of our econometric structures may not hold outside the range in which adequate economic observations exist. For example, it is difficult to have much confidence in the ability of models fit to the data of the moderate inflations of the postwar period to accurately predict what the behavior of the economy would be in an environment of aggregate price deflation.
In pursuing a risk-management approach to policy, we must confront the fact that only a limited number of risks can be quantified with any confidence. And even these risks are generally quantifiable only if we accept the assumption that the future will, at least in some important respects, resemble the past. Policymakers often have to act, or choose not to act, even though we may not fully understand the full range of possible outcomes, let alone each possible outcome's likelihood. As a result, risk management often involves significant judgment as we evaluate the risks of different events and the probability that our actions will alter those risks.
Our problem is not, as is sometimes alleged, the complexity of our policymaking process, but the far greater complexity of a world economy whose underlying linkages appear to be continuously evolving.
FRB: Speech, Greenspan--Risk and Uncertainty in Monetary Policy--January 3, 2004

merchants of fear - Remarks by Chairman Alan Greenspan - 2004

Really, that is so 2000 and late.
No really that has been covered sooo many times, but OK,
Can't we all just get rich off or RE?

as I the cat listens to Mosse's lecture on Romanticism ( not yer average Bollywood type no siree ) - which she'll no doubt whisper in my ear in due course .. Zzzzzzz

http:/ /minds.wisconsin.edu/bitstream/handle/1793/21285/Lecture05.mp3

Through the “right” education like the one championed in Rousseau’s Emile, man’s inborn reason should be developed, enabling him to lead a virtuous life. Trust in uncorrupted, natural human virtue took the form of the idealization of “primitive” peoples like Africans and American Indians abroad, and the European peasant at home, who were regarded as untouched by the corrupting influence of society. However, the notion of progress as the progress from primitive to abstract thinking prevailed, and eventually legitimated a racist view, for example of Blacks as childlike savages. Eventually, the Enlightenment produced both liberalism and racism, due to the inherent contradiction between the ideal of a critical mind and repressive, unanimous standards of virtue.

Seems like this was what Greenspan was saying above in so many words:
Central Bankers Are Not Omnipotent | ZeroHedge
A generation of market participants has grown up knowing only the era of central bankers and the 'Great Moderation' of (most of) the last two decades elevated the status of central bankers significantly and while central bankers are generally very well aware of the limits of their own power, financial markets seem inclined to overstress the direct scope of monetary policy in the real world. Monetary policy impacts the real economy because it is transmitted to the real economy through the money transmission mechanism. This has become particularly important in the current environment, where, as UBS' Paul Donovan notes, some aspects of that transmission mechanism have become damaged in some economies. Simplifying the monetary transmission mechanism into four very broad categories: the cost of capital; the willingness to lend; the willingness to save; and the foreign exchange rate; UBS finds strains in each that negate some or all of a central bank's stimulus efforts. In the current climate, it may well be that the state of the monetary transmission mechanism is even more important than monetary policy decisions themselves. Some monetary policy makers may be at the limits of their influence.
The problem is that financial markets have embraced the cult of the central bank, and it is central bank watchers who need to be told “remember they are mortal.”

1 currency now -yogi wrote:

Policy-makers should be elected, not appointed.

Seems like a no-brainer.

MBW wrote:

Wrong one... sorry.

???

Looks pretty good if you ask me.

Maybe this distorted form of rigged casino, global or world-system capitalism is going to collapse from the advanced financialization stage blowing up... or maybe it will be upheld with police states...

merchants of fear wrote:

Maybe this distorted form of rigged casino global or world-system capitalism is going to collapse from the advanced financialization stage blowing up... or maybe it will be upheld with police states...

Won't collapse in my lifetime. Hey there are periods in history where oppression comes on slowly and lasts for centuries. We're in one of those.

mr_clueless wrote:

And I'm tickled pink that HCN comments work fine with firefox

"Don't it always seem to go
That you don't know what you've got till it's gone-" Joni Mitchell

also "Playing real good for free-" ibid

Thx kcoop

TJ and The Bear wrote:

Au contraire -- they're just approaching the limit of what a legit CB can do. They can still go all banana republic on us and start monetizing like no one's done it before.

LOL yea we can play some really serious games problem is all of them fail even the current one.

TJ and The Bear wrote:

We can have a revolt & rebirth before your typical Roman Emporer reaches middle age.

Middle aged for Romans was about 12.

memmel wrote:

The key is how much can you make before it dies ?

Looterocracy ... there is an element of that right now, yes.

mr_clueless wrote:

We're in one of those. Smile

The World-system
He has argued since 1980 that the United States is a 'hegemon in decline'. He was often mocked for making this claim during the 1990s, but since the Iraq War this argument has become more widespread. Overall, Wallerstein sees the development of the capitalist world economy as detrimental to a large proportion of the world's population.[3] Similar to Marx, Wallerstein predicts that capitalism will be replaced by a socialist economy.[4]
Wallerstein rejects the notion of a "Third World", claiming there is only one world connected by a complex network of economic exchange relationships — i.e., a "world-economy" or "world-system" in which the "dichotomy of capital and labor" and the endless "accumulation of capital" by competing agents (historically including but not limited to nation-states) account for frictions. This approach is known as the World Systems Theory.
Immanuel Wallerstein 

World-system thinkers include Samir Amin, Giovanni Arrighi, Andre Gunder Frank, and Immanuel Wallerstein with major contributions by Christopher Chase-Dunn, Beverly Silver, Volker Bornschier, Janet Abu Lughod, Thomas D. Hall, Kunibert Raffer, Theotonio dos Santos, Dale Tomich, Jason W. Moore, and others.[3]
Wallerstein offers several definitions of a world-system. He defined it, in 1974, briefly, as:
a system is defined as a unit with a single division of labor and multiple cultural systems.
Apart from these, Wallerstein defines four temporal features of the world system. Cyclical rhythms represent the short-term fluctuation of economy, while secular trends mean deeper long run tendencies, such as general economic growth or decline.[1][3] The term contradiction means a general controversy in the system, usually concerning some short term vs. long term trade-offs.
World-systems theory - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

1 currency now -yogi - Yes. Do you believe in checks and balances?

Yes, if the elected people are doing their job. By your own view, they signed off their jobs to the FED. What makes you think they will start doing their job if given the printing press?
Do you really believe they will get all responsible now? It's a greek friggen tragedy where no one walks off the stage alive if that happens.
They all want their spot on the ark.

Kauai_Kahuna wrote:

What makes you think they will start doing their job if given the printing press?

Well they can't if not.

Would you be happier with a benevolent dictator who made all the decisions for you but made you richer personally?

1 currency now -yogi - Do you really believe Wall Street represents you better than Congress?

Are you kidding? As a stock holder why would I buy the company if they did not represent me better than lame Congress.
If any company represented me as well as Congress does I would have sold years ago and shorted it.
I think the bond market would be a little more ahead.
What was your question again?

OK then trust the bankers. What is your complaint then?

Kauai_Kahuna wrote:

As a stock holder why would I buy the company if they did not represent me

I guess you want a corporatocracy then. You should be happy, not sad. You're living in heaven.

Kauai_Kahuna wrote:

wait they already to that for the evil corporations

No, that's you and your stock holdings.

1 currency now -yogi - OK then trust the bankers. What is your complaint then?

Your missing my point good gentleman, I trust the banks only a little more than elected official's, but even less than bureaucrats.
It's a question of how easy is it to buy you now days.
Lower the price the less I trust. If you mention honor, ethics, morals, etc to these guys they will smile and LOL with their eyes.
Best of luck to you in your belief system.

1 currency now -yogi - Been there, had that disease...

That may explain your mental state and attitude.

Kauai_Kahuna wrote:

I trust the banks only a little more than elected official's

Why? Can you replace them after 2 years? Do you know how long Bernanke's term is?

Not literally.

The air I breathe is much better than when I was a kid, thanks to the socialists.

1 currency now -yogi - Why? Can you replace them after 2 years? Do you know how long Bernanke's term is?

I would prefer shareholders remove the CEO's and board member's in the cabal that controls the FED.
But then I have always been a disillusion dreamer that does sleep well at night knowing it will never happen.

Best of luck to you in your belief system.

We are stuck in a nationalistic ideological stranglehold that divides the parts of the system so we are rooting for one exploitative national economy versus another when in reality it's an integrated process... where the parts 'work together' or one area 'extracts' from another maintaining the overall system administered by central banks or the banking cartel. Corporations are not bound by nationalistic ideologies.

It's fairly clear that both have had their chances and failed miserably. I would have to say that at least with elected officials, the chances of change are greater, and the decent into regulatory capture should be slower. Time to reboot.

merchants of fear - Corporations are not bound by nationalistic ideologies.

No they are not, but this is an employment thread, and either it's self employed, small biz, corp or the largest of transfer payments.

I thought the discussion was on employment and where the growth will come from in the near and further future. More importantly where to focus the government and FED support to.
Being a worker bee for a corporation, I know a little about that.
I know a little about the whole transfer payment area.
I have enough friends who run self employed and small biz guys to know I don't know anything.
I can tell you that the real hurt is on the last two, they laugh at vacation, sick leave issues because they don't get them period. And they can't afford to pay for it as presented by a governmental nanny.

Whatever you do, don't associate your friends' not being able to afford vacations with the Fed's making the banker elite trillions of dollars richer, because you'll vomit.

1 currency now -yogi - So the 51% holder should have all the power, eh? You are a billionaire's wet dream.

Are you kidding, they have captured the pensions and 401K votes. You really don't understand it do you. You have not vote and no say. Deal with it.
Hope your not counting on a pension of any sort, the tip of the iceberg is starting to show.
I'm counting on savings, sub 1 percent interest / returns.
I miss patientrenter, he pissed off a lot of people, but in time he may be proven right.

Kauai_Kahuna wrote:

You really don't understand it do you.

No, you don't, do you.

Kauai_Kahuna wrote:

Are you kidding, they have captured the pensions and 401K votes.

And you're happy about it, as you said above, because you trust the bankers.

1 currency now -yogi - And you're happy about it, as you said above, because you trust the bankers.

Now your putting words in my mouth, where did I say I was happy about it?
Get real or go back home to your mothers basement. Whining will only get you so far.

Kauai_Kahuna wrote:

I thought the discussion was on employment and where the growth will come from in the near and further future. More importantly where to focus the government and FED support to.

There's a structural crisis in the global economy and jobs & incomes are shrinking as labor has been automated or the need for workers has shrunk from deflation and lowered demand from bubble cycles. Social welfare & entitlements are under pressure from the govt deficits that have had to pick up the tab from so many corporate tax breaks over the years where tax revenues are not enough to keep up with spending. Unemployment increasing has become a feature of the system and is chronic unemployment now. There's still resistance from the 1% and everyone else to pay more in taxes.
There's no fix in the system. The contradictions of the system cannot be repaired inside the system as I mentioned. The system has not failed the Big Players. The old solutions for the masses to economic cycle problems are not working any more as pointed out in the ZH central banking piece. The stimulus juice is so watered down, it's losing it's 'recovery' value.

You think the Fed will protect your savings? Are you nuts?

Kauai_Kahuna wrote:

Now your putting words in my mouth, where did I say I was happy about it?

You just said you trusted the bankers more than Congress. You just said it. What is wrong with you?

merchants of fear - There's no fix in the system.

Yes there is, taxes have to go back to pre-bush tax cut's.
Lot's of cooperate tax breaks need to be wiped off the books.
The question is when. I personally think they should have expired when they were set to, but somehow (surprise) the economy was not a happy place.

I think there should be a "stimulus" of sending a check of 5K to EVERYONE and if you don't spend it, you get taxed it.
Then add another 5K to all tax payers, if you don't spend it, you get taxed it.
That will inject a small amount of real money to real people.

It still shocks me that people who poopho trickle down economics think that giving banks trillions will trickle down.

Kauai_Kahuna wrote:

giving banks trillions

Who gave them trillions? The Congress only gave them billions. Oh, you must mean your friends at the Fed. But it's OK, you can check their power because...well...because you trust them not to abuse it.

Yeah, well I'm tired of your childish deregulation garbage. If you can't remember what you wrote 5 minutes ago, then it's pointless. Enjoy your savings. Watch out for that hidden inflation. Watch out for Fed-sponsored derivative ponzi fraud. Good luck with the oligarchy.

1 currency now -yogi - Who gave them trillions? The Congress only gave them billions. Oh, you must mean your friends at the Fed. But it's OK,

Yea Yogi, you must really love those tea party representatives who said no more and stopped the Congress from feeding that monster and also put the FED on warning.
Great job!

Kauai_Kahuna wrote:

I just don't get you yogi, and tired of your childish views and attempts to twist reality to where you want it.

Do you trust the banking cartel and the global central banking system? They are just one centralized feature of the operation of organized and govt. supported profit taking for special interest conglomerate corporations that are now globally amalgamated as oligarchies it appears. Or something like that.
sheesh

When the Fed gave their banker friends trillions in 2008, you think it's OK for the Congress to then say, "sorry, we're broke" to everyone else?

merchants of fear - No I was just saying..

I know, but there are answers to it, and it is not a pay-go, and it's not jack anyone who is "rich" needs to pay %90 taxes.

We all need to pay more tax's, and I mean everyone. If your dirt poor and get 8K in assistance, you can learn and budget to pay $10 in April.

If everyone pays, even with money given to them, then we all fall into it together and we can have some real discussions on what countries need our aid, and really do the X really need Y.

Then maybe our representatives will grow a pair and do their FRIGGEN jobs of RUNNING not RUINING our country and PAYING the bills.

Thank you all very 'muck", I'll be here as long as the good lord wills it, (the standard paval attackers can take a friggin number).

Kauai_Kahuna wrote:

maybe our representatives will grow a pair and do their FRIGGEN jobs of RUNNING not RUINING our country

Which is it? Do you want Congress to have power or the Fed? You just said the Fed. I didn't vote for the Fed.

Kauai_Kahuna wrote:

We all need to pay more tax's, and I mean everyone.

Well let the top 10% bear the burden... the tax money just goes to dumb wars and to keep the social security ponzi going a while longer... and of course education and medical care... this economy was looted... a lot of the wealthy have 'reserves' now above and beyond normal profits... but the structural crisis can't be fixed... financialization was allowed to get so big, it can self destruct the world economy... it's just a matter of waiting for the defaults coming inevitably... sovereign defaults... the rest is a circus before the main event where this system evolves into probably something much worse than the terrible system it is now...

Kauai_Kahuna wrote:

Do you want the small fisherman having to conform to ALL the rules that a multi-national bank SHOULD conform to?
I have a lot of friends who run small (10 or under) biz's and I catch them staring at the books like with concentration they can make the numbers match.
Some of them are para-lized by possible new taxes in the future, some just will not survive as cost goes up but the they can't raise their prices.

Might be blowback from crashing of the economies and some sovereigns...emergency measures & bazookas and legislation by committees... where you say, the little businesses get wiped out by regs or more taxes and the Big Fish can survive it... and be the last Big Fish standing...

1 currency now -yogi - Why not let the bankers have all the money,

I have waited for a cite for all the words your trying to attribute to me, and I'm sure it's my fault in not being clear enough that you can understand me so I will cease just for you.