WASHINGTON -- "U.S. employers added only 80,000 jobs in June, a third straight month of weak hiring that shows the economy is struggling three years after the recession ended."
Only thing would be a tax-cut; but, can't see that happening.
there is one possibility ... former OMB head orszag wrote an op-ed a couple of months ago that O could lower payroll tax cut even further ... Rs would be hard pressed to say no ... but with AARP opposed to extension of current?
Just take all of that money we made on TARP and all of reimbursements the US received on the Iraqi oil that we sold to pay off all of the war expenses and start cutting some checks.....
"Greece is likely to exit the eurozone in "a matter of months", according to the winner of the Wolfson Economics prize, awarded for the best plan for dealing with member states leaving the eurozone."
but it looks like state and local government employment losses might be ending (or at least slowing sharply).
The real estate rebound, here, has helped here with recordation taxes, income taxes, etc. Revenue is better than they were projecting. God bless zirp and bubble reflation.
"FINLAND would consider leaving the eurozone rather than paying the debts of other countries in the currency bloc, Finnish Finance Minister Jutta Urpilainen has said.
In a newspaper interview today she said she'd consider crashing her AAA-rated country out of the eurozone.
“Finland is committed to being a member of the eurozone, and we think that the euro is useful for Finland. Finland will not hang itself to the euro at any cost and we are prepared for all scenarios. "
This was noted here on the news last night. Last night I commented in one of the threads: The Troika are back, and it sounds like more bitter medicine. On a brighter side, the govt seem to have found a way to track down phantom pensioners. As ever there is a loophole: the govt have to be able to prove that the folks collecting the bogus pensions actually knew it was illegal.
Am I the only one disturbed that the Unemployed Over 26 Weeks graph turned back up? If you don't believe or don't accept structural unemployment, then these numbers need to come down a great deal more than they are now. I don't see any worthwhile notion of a "recovery" without it.
The real estate rebound, here, has helped here with recordation taxes, income taxes, etc. Revenue is better than they were projecting. God bless zirp and bubble reflation.
As long as the bulk owners including banks don't use their heft to avoid all those unpaid property taxes, penalties and fees.
"we sold to pay off all of the war expenses and start cutting some checks....."
"the costs of the War on Terror are often contested, as academics and critics of the component wars (including the Iraq War) have unearthed many hidden costs not represented in official estimates. The most recent major report on these costs come from Brown University in the form of the Costs of War project,[1] which said the total for wars in Iraq, Afghanistan, and Pakistan is at least $3.2-4 trillion.[2] "
former OMB head orszag wrote an op-ed a couple of months ago that O could lower payroll tax cut even further
The last cut gave what, $20 a paycheck, for the average slub? Even if they were stupid enough to waiste their time I don't think they could ram it through before Nov.
I think it's all political games from now till election.
Yep the charts are beginning to show a discouraging new trend - a total new baseline is being set. The two that catch my eye are the more than 26 wks unemployed and the first one - can't specifically remember the title on it - but the line has been drifting in a narrow band for close to 3 years now.
I was in discussion with a friend of a relative on July 4 - she has been outta work since last fall - no prospects to date - sales and admin experience out the wazoo - good resume etc. with the downside that she is 57 yrs. old. I suspect that anyone in their later productive years of work are falling off the roles by the 1000's as we move deeper and deeper into this mess. The part that really casued me to take a breath is how this woman described her experience. She said there are MANY men and women out there at jobs fairs, applying left and right etc. who though well educated and able to work simply can't match skills to the new reality of a data driven world. This is a great concern and one that I think can be fairly easily resolved - but there is NO MONEY, NO WILL, and especially NO LEADERSHIP in our nation at the moment. And now with Obamacare tax and the other taxes looming on the horizon come Jan 1 2013 I suspect that these numbers are going to remain dismal for a long while.
It's interesting that Operation Twist is the Fed's attempt to lower the average person's debt load. The problem is that they can't take advantage if they can't refinance. This proposal is more direct, but it requires Congressional approval.
umop, I think the and are having trouble believing their own shit.
The more the magic doesn't work doesn't work, the harder they will struggle to believe.
BTW QE3 will only add to the proof that (a) monetary policy is a sham, and (b) excess reserves don't do squat. Of course, we already have plenty of evidence for that. Meanwhile we won't do the one thing that did work, because "We're broke!".
ZIRP can only get you so far. Rates would have to be around 2% for it to make sense for me to refi. Car rates aren't going lower (absent dealer incentives) and of course ZIRP has no effect on interest rates for credit cards and student loans. On business loans, most have interest rate floors, so ZIRP can't drive them down further.
"It's interesting that Operation Twist is the Fed's attempt to lower the average person's debt load. The problem is that they can't take advantage if they can't refinance."
Low interest rates while reducing debt loads, prevent many older individuals from retiring, preventing younger people from moving into their jobs.
four years into this crisis and I have come to believe that temperament not savy or intelligence has the most to do with investment attitudes. I have been waiting for the end for two decades whereas you believe it is all going to get better.
I think you misunderstood my post. I'm "living in hope" for my short position, which has been underwater for quite a while. Things are looking up for it, lately, though.
About one-third of the jobs gained in June were in temporary services. Manufacturing added 11,000, its ninth straight month of gains. But growth in factory jobs slowed sharply in the second quarter compared to the first. Health care added 13,000 jobs and financial services gained 5,000. Retailers, transportation firms and government cut jobs.
The more the magic doesn't work doesn't work, the harder they will struggle to believe.
First it'll be cargo cult time (i.e. policies that confuse cause and effect by emulating the look of a healthy and functional economy in hopes it will inspire actual health of a functional economy), then sacrifice time (austerity for the proles), then eventually we get to regicide!
not just pensions ... cue AllenM's petty rentier liquidation ... say you're retired and have $1 million liquid ... earning $20K to $30K/year in interest/dividend income ... that plus SS and medicare enough to meet monthly nut? ... if you're a petty rentier used to the trips, fancy meals, new cars, country club lifestyle?
SF: heard about a 20 something woman, college grad, applying for a job at a cookie store Noe Valley adjacent--two interviews. In my own words it sounded like the owners were concerned that the prospective clerk would be properly obsequious interacting with the local tech aristocracy. Yikes!
I'm fully supportive of anyone who's now trying to game the system. If this depression has taught us anything, it's that if you're not cheating, you're not trying.....
I'm fully supportive of anyone who's now trying to game the system. If this depression has taught us anything, it's that if you're not cheating, you're not trying.....
An old friend of mine, usually more of a Pangloss than a Kunstler, confided in me last week that "the only people not running scams right now are the suckers."
I didn't want to ask which category he'd place himself in.
If the size of the U.S. labor force as a share of the total population was the same as it was when Barack Obama took office—65.7% then vs. 63.8% today—the U-3 unemployment rate would be 10.9%. Even if you take into account that the LFP should be declining as America ages, the unemployment rate would be 10.5%.
I'm fully supportive of anyone who's now trying to game the system. If this depression has taught us anything, it's that if you're not cheating, you're not trying.....
No, it's worse than that -- welcome to Major League Baseball. If you're not cheating, you're not "getting ahead".
I expect stock prices at 1998 prices again in the next couple of years (weeks?) The dollar is worth exactly half what it was when my first kid was born. Ben can only dream of re-creating that...
Have a good weekend all, plenty of leftover 4th of July beers will be consumed....
Yes, you have it in a nutshell, and now the petty rentier class is piling right back in to real estate to capture those high rents and returns they have been dreaming of, not noticing that wages are still dreck, and that the economy is still limping along.
No QE3 until the euro breaks down, at which point it will be a huge liquidity operation to soak up the oceans of capital that will flood New York.
We are going to sit here and deteriorate until that point.
U3
Nov '10 - 9.8 --> March '11 8.8 -- (1 point drop in 4 months)
Mar '11 8.8 --> Sept '11 9.1 --- (3 tenth climb over 6 months)
Sep '11 9.1 --> Apr '12 8.1 --- (1 point drop in 7 months)
We have had TWO 1 point drops in U3 ... both happening during Fall Winter.
We have had TWO Spring/Summer stagnations. The housing collapse has completely hosed the seasonal adjustment factors because there is no big increase in construction/housing during the warm months.
Ignoring seasonal adjustment factors:
Category : Year: Jan --- June
Labor For: 2010: 152.9 - 154.7 = +1.8 million
Labor For: 2011: 152.5 - 154.5 = +2.0 million
Labor For: 2012: 153.5 - 156.4 = +3.1 million
Employed: 2010: 136.8 - 139.9 = +3.1 million
Employed: 2011: 137.6 - 140.1 = +2.5 million
Employed: 2012: 139.9 - 143.2 = +3.3 million
If we impoverish people and deny them health care just prior to Social Security eligibility by not re-employing 50-somethings, we can be sure that their "entitlement" tenure will be nasty, brutish and short.
We are going to sit here and deteriorate until that point.
Even after all the central bank interventions, I am still mostly in cash (and bullion, which I am really trying to reduce my exposure to) which some speculative options bets mixed in for fun.
The only three things that would lead to me buying assets would be solid growth, inflation, or another crash.
"Age discrimination in the workplace has long been a concern for the 55-and-older set. In this downturn, however, younger workers may have as much to fear as their more-mature colleagues."
If we impoverish people and deny them health care just prior to Social Security eligibility by not re-employing 50-somethings, we can be sure that their "entitlement" tenure will be nasty, brutish and short
Flip side, I saw an ad by attorneys saying that you are entitled to disability and they will fight the government for you
to get what is yours by right of being an American.
Link, please? I don't see that number in either of the latest U.S. manufacturing or non-manufacturing reports, but I must be looking in the wrong place. TIA.
attorneys saying that you are entitled to disability
This reminds me of a venture I attempted years ago, to combine health insurance and workers comp coverages, one plan reducing costs over 25% (huge money) for employers which at least had a possibility of trickling down to employee wages.
The lawyers shot the idea down. No trickle down for you!
Learned to not even try to fight the psycho's, they have all the power....
Flip side, I saw an ad by attorneys saying that you are entitled to disability and they will fight the government for you to get what is yours by right of being an American.
What you should be asking is why, if society has decided to give the poor a stipend of $600/month, does it do this through the medical establishment and not as a traditional social policy? And the answer is very simple:
you, America, would go bananas if poor people got money for nothing, you can barely stand it when they get it for a disability;
if you offload a social problem to medicine, if you medicalize a social problem, then you've bought yourself a generation or two to come up with a new plan or invade someone.
Do you want riots in the streets? How much does it cost to prevent LA (your choice) from catching fire? Answer: $600/month/person, plus Medicaid. Medicalizing social problems has the additional benefit of rendering society not responsible for those social ills. If it's a disease, it's nobody's fault. Yay empiricism.
not just pensions ... cue AllenM's petty rentier liquidation ... say you're retired and have $1 million liquid ... earning $20K to $30K/year in interest/dividend income ... that plus SS and medicare enough to meet monthly nut? ... if you're a petty rentier used to the trips, fancy meals, new cars, country club lifestyle?
$1500 month SS is equivalent to $1 million in a money market.
" RUSSIA-SBERBANK-CARDS-MALFUNCTION MOSCOW. July 6. (Interfax) – Sberbank of Russia (RTS: SBER) has suspended credit and debit card operations due to a technical malfunction, the bank told Interfax. “All cards are not being serviced,” it said."
How many times did these glitches occur among the world's largest and likely highest paid IT services groups before the European financial crisis pulled back the curtain and showed the proximity of the liquidty cliff for so many of the 'biggest' banks in the world?
Link, please? I don't see that number in either of the latest U.S. manufacturing or non-manufacturing reports, but I must be looking in the wrong place. TIA.
David Rosenberg invented nominal PMI a number of years ago.
Sberbank of Russia (RTS: SBER) has suspended credit and debit card operations due to a technical malfunction, the bank told Interfax.
I tried to use my Sberbank of Russia debit card at Hooters this morning with no luck. Frankly, it was a bit embarrassing. I will never get another Russian debit or credit card again. My Bank of Siam cards never have problems.
YouTube - The Poseidon Adventure (full speed ahead; don't worry about the tsunami of old people and the sudden impacts of a generational change never before seen on Earth ...)
George has also been accused of exaggerating the importance of his "all-devouring rent thesis" in claiming that it is the primary cause of poverty and injustice in society.[22] More recent critics have claimed that increasing government spending has rendered a land tax insufficient to fund government. Georgists have responded by citing a multitude of sources showing that the total land value of nations like the US is enormous, and more than sufficient to fund government ....
$1500 month SS is equivalent to $1 million in a money market.
So the people with $1M to invest wind up moving into corporate bonds, dividend stocks, rental properties, anything with a payout stream greater than they can get from the MMF. Thus driving those yields down to the point where they no longer properly compensate investors for the additional risk and forcing newer investors to venture farther afield still.
Eventually you wind up with veritable smorgasboard of investment options, every single one of them unattractive.
The problem with health care is it makes people live too long and it burdens the younger generations. When I run for president, my platform will to limit health care to every person to 1 major surgery, 2 minor surgeries, 1 face lift, and your choice of 1 vaccination during a lifetime. Unless they can pay for it themselves, because rich people deserve to live longer.
So the people with $1M to invest wind up moving into corporate bonds, dividend stocks, rental properties, anything with a payout stream greater than they can get from the MMF. Thus driving those yields down to the point where they no longer properly compensate investors for the additional risk and forcing newer investors to venture farther afield still.
Hot money chasing any reasonable return. Now how do you suppose so much hot money wound up sloshing around ?
Who cares about this report -- it's F'ing meaningless, because next month there will be a massive tsunami wave of construction jobs, as craploads of people adjust to the recovery and build wave upon wave of
It's all good, the recovery is fully underway and has been for at least 3 years:
The good times are here and just as deficits don't matter, jobs don't either ....
the idea is to force us to invest in crooked schemes that are controlled such as the stock market.
More accurately, the idea is to ify every investment option until it's just as crooked as the stock market, so it doesn't matter where we decide to "invest".
Why do you think I've been so about the whole concept of Fannie and Freddie doing bulk RRE sales to "qualified investment companies"?
"Just when you think it can't get any quieter for bankers who deal in equities, it does.
Sales of new stock in Canada fell 12.4 per cent in the first half of the year, according to Thomson Reuters figures. The dropoff in the second quarter was huge, as the amount of stock sold slid by 50 per cent from the first quarter, to the lowest total since the financial crisis. Even sales of preferred shares and structured products, which had held up because they could provide yield, went in the tank in the quarter."
nothing is more intellectually dishonest than cherry picking your statistics (and lazy)
see General Max von Hoffman's berating of Karl Radeck at Brest-Livtost negotiations
for doing the same...
...
"Could it really be true that the tool most readily used to manage the economy is a policy lever whose success depends as much as anything on bribing a few employed young adults to move out of their parents' basements, while at the same time exerting other contractionary effects on the economy that the mainstream fails to discuss?!?"
"As a condition of opening the casino, the tribe agreed in 2005 to pay the county about $600,000 a year but has never made any of the payments, according to court records."
Guy just said in here, that he heard from an agent-
There is no SF RE inventory because Obummer is leaning on the banks not to foreclose, etc. so he can get re-elected.
Not really buying the rumor; but, ineteresting that a realtor is running around spreading the meme. Interesting times indeed...
"How did Mr. Romney make all that money? Was it in ways suggesting that what was good for Bain Capital, the private equity firm that made him rich, would also be good for America?
And the answer is no.
Bain didn’t build businesses; it bought and sold them. Sometimes its takeovers led to new hiring; often they led to layoffs, wage cuts and lost benefits. On some occasions, Bain made a profit even as its takeover target was driven out of business. None of this sounds like the kind of record that should reassure American workers looking for an economic savior.
And then there’s the business about outsourcing.
Consider one of Mr. Romney’s most famous remarks: “Corporations are people, my friend.” When the audience jeered, he elaborated: “Everything corporations earn ultimately goes to people. Where do you think it goes? Whose pockets? Whose pockets? People’s pockets.” This is undoubtedly true, once you take into account the pockets of, say, partners at Bain Capital (who, I hasten to add, are, indeed, people). But one of the main points of outsourcing is to ensure that as little as possible of what corporations earn goes into the pockets of the people who actually work for those corporations.
Just to be clear, outsourcing is only one source of the huge disconnect between a tiny elite and ordinary American workers, a disconnect that has been growing for more than 30 years. And Bain, in turn, was only one player in the growth of outsourcing. So Mitt Romney didn’t personally, single-handedly, destroy the middle-class society we used to have. He was, however, an enthusiastic and very well remunerated participant in the process of destruction; if Bain got involved with your company, one way or another, the odds were pretty good that even if your job survived you ended up with lower pay and diminished benefits.
In short, what was good for Bain Capital definitely wasn’t good for America. "
Built a house up on that ass, that’s an ass state
.................................................
(lyrics by Kanye West "Mercy") YouTube - Mercy (Explicit)
mp, no.
I don't remember it from my days... curious if that proves out in back testing.
...
it was more directed at a True Believer in the Wright Model B
Why all the focus all the time on the 25-54 demographic? Do we really think there's not a ton of people that need to work between the ages of 54-64? And is there not even an increasing number of people that need to work in the 65+ age group as well? Are we to assume that these people don't really matter as much?
Ben's
if he does QE3 and Romney wins! 
CR's new RE tagline (compliments of Kanye West)
Built a house up on that ass, that’s an ass state
YouTube - Mercy (Explicit)
Outsourcing workers. Paying the ones left more.
The "percentage of job losses" chart is a killer.
Three years into the recovery and we're still at employment levels matching the worst of several other recessions.
June Jobs Report: U.S. Adds 80,000 Jobs; Unemployment Rate Unchanged
WASHINGTON -- "U.S. employers added only 80,000 jobs in June, a third straight month of weak hiring that shows the economy is struggling three years after the recession ended."
Only thing would be a tax-cut; but, can't see that happening.
there is one possibility ... former OMB head orszag wrote an op-ed a couple of months ago that O could lower payroll tax cut even further ... Rs would be hard pressed to say no ... but with AARP opposed to extension of current?
running out of road
Make consumer credit deductible again.
black dog wrote:
They couldn't see it coming!
Agronox wrote:
It's not going to get much better IMHO. At least we didn't end up with stability at 20 or 30%
Just take all of that money we made on TARP and all of reimbursements the US received on the Iraqi oil that we sold to pay off all of the war expenses and start cutting some checks.....
BBC News - 'Greece euro exit likely in months'
5 July 2012 Last updated at 18:11 ET
"Greece is likely to exit the eurozone in "a matter of months", according to the winner of the Wolfson Economics prize, awarded for the best plan for dealing with member states leaving the eurozone."
Greece unable to collect €12.6bn fines due to lack of staff - Telegraph
They couldn't see it coming!
MIC should be dialing back in earnest shortly
Of course the Federal government is still losing workers. Every time I hear or read "Federal" I am tempted to ignore the ed.
The real estate rebound, here, has helped here with recordation taxes, income taxes, etc. Revenue is better than they were projecting. God bless zirp and bubble reflation.
Debt crisis: Finland warns of euro exit rather than pay debts of others - European, Business - Independent.ie
"FINLAND would consider leaving the eurozone rather than paying the debts of other countries in the currency bloc, Finnish Finance Minister Jutta Urpilainen has said.
In a newspaper interview today she said she'd consider crashing her AAA-rated country out of the eurozone.
“Finland is committed to being a member of the eurozone, and we think that the euro is useful for Finland. Finland will not hang itself to the euro at any cost and we are prepared for all scenarios. "
Zirp is crushing pension plans. Ben don't talk about that.
This was noted here on the news last night. Last night I commented in one of the threads: The Troika are back, and it sounds like more bitter medicine. On a brighter side, the govt seem to have found a way to track down phantom pensioners. As ever there is a loophole: the govt have to be able to prove that the folks collecting the bogus pensions actually knew it was illegal.
Am I the only one disturbed that the Unemployed Over 26 Weeks graph turned back up? If you don't believe or don't accept structural unemployment, then these numbers need to come down a great deal more than they are now. I don't see any worthwhile notion of a "recovery" without it.
Oman wrote:
As long as the bulk owners including banks don't use their heft to avoid all those unpaid property taxes, penalties and fees.
"we sold to pay off all of the war expenses and start cutting some checks....."
"the costs of the War on Terror are often contested, as academics and critics of the component wars (including the Iraq War) have unearthed many hidden costs not represented in official estimates. The most recent major report on these costs come from Brown University in the form of the Costs of War project,[1] which said the total for wars in Iraq, Afghanistan, and Pakistan is at least $3.2-4 trillion.[2] "
Financial cost of the Iraq War - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Any estimates on Iran?
The last cut gave what, $20 a paycheck, for the average slub? Even if they were stupid enough to waiste their time I don't think they could ram it through before Nov.
I think it's all political games from now till election.
Former Idealist wrote:
CalPERS isn't saying that. Hmmmmm.
Yep the charts are beginning to show a discouraging new trend - a total new baseline is being set. The two that catch my eye are the more than 26 wks unemployed and the first one - can't specifically remember the title on it - but the line has been drifting in a narrow band for close to 3 years now.
I was in discussion with a friend of a relative on July 4 - she has been outta work since last fall - no prospects to date - sales and admin experience out the wazoo - good resume etc. with the downside that she is 57 yrs. old. I suspect that anyone in their later productive years of work are falling off the roles by the 1000's as we move deeper and deeper into this mess. The part that really casued me to take a breath is how this woman described her experience. She said there are MANY men and women out there at jobs fairs, applying left and right etc. who though well educated and able to work simply can't match skills to the new reality of a data driven world. This is a great concern and one that I think can be fairly easily resolved - but there is NO MONEY, NO WILL, and especially NO LEADERSHIP in our nation at the moment. And now with Obamacare tax and the other taxes looming on the horizon come Jan 1 2013 I suspect that these numbers are going to remain dismal for a long while.
It's interesting that Operation Twist is the Fed's attempt to lower the average person's debt load. The problem is that they can't take advantage if they can't refinance. This proposal is more direct, but it requires Congressional approval.
it's Mitt's election to lose...
no President in modern history has won
with UE that high...
...
CalPERS isn't saying that. Hmmmmm.
what are they up to now?
bankrolling indian casinos?
bankrolling JD?
Say it with me now: federal direct infrastructure hiring.
Former Idealist wrote:
The more the magic doesn't work doesn't work, the harder they will struggle to believe.
BTW QE3 will only add to the proof that (a) monetary policy is a sham, and (b) excess reserves don't do squat. Of course, we already have plenty of evidence for that. Meanwhile we won't do the one thing that did work, because "We're broke!".
ZIRP can only get you so far. Rates would have to be around 2% for it to make sense for me to refi. Car rates aren't going lower (absent dealer incentives) and of course ZIRP has no effect on interest rates for credit cards and student loans. On business loans, most have interest rate floors, so ZIRP can't drive them down further.
But ZIRP isn't really about you and me.....
Whiskey wrote:
Lack of demand is the other possible explanation.
Agronox:
Say it with me now: federal direct infrastructure hiring.
Federal direct infrastructure hiring, NOW.
I agree, think that anyone over 50 who gets laid off will have a very tough time finding new work.
"It's interesting that Operation Twist is the Fed's attempt to lower the average person's debt load. The problem is that they can't take advantage if they can't refinance."
Low interest rates while reducing debt loads, prevent many older individuals from retiring, preventing younger people from moving into their jobs.
Grandpa, you want your asset prices held up or someone else having to put more money in your pension to keep it funded?
I know what grandpa wants...
ANTIPATHY said (in pigged thread):
I live in hope.
Sebastian
four years into this crisis and I have come to believe that temperament not savy or intelligence has the most to do with investment attitudes. I have been waiting for the end for two decades whereas you believe it is all going to get better.
I think you misunderstood my post. I'm "living in hope" for my short position, which has been underwater for quite a while. Things are looking up for it, lately, though.
Sebastian
Former Idealist wrote:
Announcing another recipient of the very rare but coveted
award!
"I agree, think that anyone over 50 who gets laid off will have a very tough time finding new work."
In my case it was anyone over 30-years.
Rob Dawg wrote:
Float that to the bankers' lobby...
Yes temp jobs:
About one-third of the jobs gained in June were in temporary services. Manufacturing added 11,000, its ninth straight month of gains. But growth in factory jobs slowed sharply in the second quarter compared to the first. Health care added 13,000 jobs and financial services gained 5,000. Retailers, transportation firms and government cut jobs.
Read more: Not Found | TIME.com
umop apisdn wrote:
First it'll be cargo cult time (i.e. policies that confuse cause and effect by emulating the look of a healthy and functional economy in hopes it will inspire actual health of a functional economy), then sacrifice time (austerity for the proles), then eventually we get to regicide!
I'm a Grandpa.
I don't expect em to deliver either way.
They just steal the loot.
Giving up looking for work, no unemployment, go on disability. More disability than jobs:
3.1 Million Workers Join Disability Ranks Vs. 2.6 Million That Got Jobs In Obama Recovery - Investors.com
Oman wrote:
I want both! Get your hands off my Medicare and keep those GOD
ED kids off my lawn!
Vic wrote:
Not a dichotomy...
Zirp is crushing pension plans.
not just pensions ... cue AllenM's petty rentier liquidation ... say you're retired and have $1 million liquid ... earning $20K to $30K/year in interest/dividend income ... that plus SS and medicare enough to meet monthly nut? ... if you're a petty rentier used to the trips, fancy meals, new cars, country club lifestyle?
Social inSecurity and MediScarred are the new world.
Projections if we did not pass the pork-u-lus bill. Promises if we did pass pork-u-lus of 5.6% unemployment.
http://www.aei-ideas.org/2012/07/june-jobs-swoon-americas-labor-market-depression-continues/
SF: heard about a 20 something woman, college grad, applying for a job at a cookie store Noe Valley adjacent--two interviews. In my own words it sounded like the owners were concerned that the prospective clerk would be properly obsequious interacting with the local tech aristocracy. Yikes!
Gold down 22.
Isn't this the DOOMSDAY trade?
What is this telling us?
I'm fully supportive of anyone who's now trying to game the system. If this depression has taught us anything, it's that if you're not cheating, you're not trying.....
KarmaPolice wrote:
Glod is speaking in tongues today
comrade mike wrote:
That's a misread.
This is a direct result of the obesity epidemic. Fat + Type 2 = ward of the state.
Investors Business Daily?.......indeed.
Lurking Lawyer wrote:
An old friend of mine, usually more of a Pangloss than a Kunstler, confided in me last week that "the only people not running scams right now are the suckers."
I didn't want to ask which category he'd place himself in.
I can't figure out who to cheat. Maybe I'll go give a bum a photocopied double sawbuck.
Comrade Elmer Fudd wrote:
I would say full-tilt bullshit if you ask me.
If the size of the U.S. labor force as a share of the total population was the same as it was when Barack Obama took office—65.7% then vs. 63.8% today—the U-3 unemployment rate would be 10.9%. Even if you take into account that the LFP should be declining as America ages, the unemployment rate would be 10.5%.
Lurking Lawyer wrote:
Not cheating if it's legal, pay the fine, I mean tax for your parking ticket.
That is of course the problem. You need to find the mark and develop the scam. Easier if your tendencies are primarily psychopathic in nature.....
Lurking Lawyer wrote:
No, it's worse than that -- welcome to Major League Baseball. If you're not cheating, you're not "getting ahead".
I expect stock prices at 1998 prices again in the next couple of years (weeks?)
The dollar is worth exactly half what it was when my first kid was born. Ben can only dream of re-creating that...
Have a good weekend all, plenty of leftover 4th of July beers will be consumed....
Yes, you have it in a nutshell, and now the petty rentier class is piling right back in to real estate to capture those high rents and returns they have been dreaming of, not noticing that wages are still dreck, and that the economy is still limping along.
No QE3 until the euro breaks down, at which point it will be a huge liquidity operation to soak up the oceans of capital that will flood New York.
We are going to sit here and deteriorate until that point.
Someday this war's gonna end...
Former Idealist wrote:
It's called human sacrifice.
What happened with Unemployment since the bottom?
U3
Nov '10 - 9.8 --> March '11 8.8 -- (1 point drop in 4 months)
Mar '11 8.8 --> Sept '11 9.1 --- (3 tenth climb over 6 months)
Sep '11 9.1 --> Apr '12 8.1 --- (1 point drop in 7 months)
We have had TWO 1 point drops in U3 ... both happening during Fall Winter.
We have had TWO Spring/Summer stagnations. The housing collapse has completely hosed the seasonal adjustment factors because there is no big increase in construction/housing during the warm months.
Ignoring seasonal adjustment factors:
Category : Year: Jan --- June
Labor For: 2010: 152.9 - 154.7 = +1.8 million
Labor For: 2011: 152.5 - 154.5 = +2.0 million
Labor For: 2012: 153.5 - 156.4 = +3.1 million
Employed: 2010: 136.8 - 139.9 = +3.1 million
Employed: 2011: 137.6 - 140.1 = +2.5 million
Employed: 2012: 139.9 - 143.2 = +3.3 million
Unemployed: 2010: 16.1 - 14.9 = (1.2 million)
Unemployed: 2011: 14.9 - 14.4 = (0.5 million)
Unemployed: 2012: 13.5 - 13.1 = (0.4 million)
Labor force will peak next month then decline for the rest of the year.
A new SEASONAL norm does not mean a new economy. It just means that every seasonally adjusted number (which is most of them) is screwed up.
unless you have a cataclysmic event I don't think the Fed can move before the election...
...
remember Bush 41 and Greenspan...
"If you're not cheating, you're not trying hard enough".
---CONJURE'S NOMINAL PMI FUN FACTS---
The nominal ISM printed at 43.4
Since January 1948, there are 67 other instances of the nominal ISM printing 43.4 or lower.
In 47 of the instances, or 70% of them, the economy was in recession.
rj chicago wrote:
This is a human tragedy on a very large scale indeed. It will affect us as a society for generations.
236,000 more people have gone on disability than have dropped off of unemployment rolls since June 2010.
Summertime Blues: U6 Unemployment Rises to 14.9%, Nonfarm Payrolls Grow Only 80k « Confounded Interest
comrade mike wrote:
Better put people on disability than some alternatives that can be thought of. That's a hypothesis I've read.
Recession?
Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis: Plunging New Orders Suggest Global Recession Has Arrived
Stocks can go down, no worries, few bought them with their own money anyway...
If we impoverish people and deny them health care just prior to Social Security eligibility by not re-employing 50-somethings, we can be sure that their "entitlement" tenure will be nasty, brutish and short.
Look at the bright side: in 30% of the cases, it wasn't......
Citizen AllenM wrote:
Even after all the central bank interventions, I am still mostly in cash (and
bullion, which I am really trying to reduce my exposure to) which some speculative options bets mixed in for fun.
The only three things that would lead to me buying assets would be solid growth, inflation, or another crash.
How is the jobs report like the food at a Catskills resort?
Woman 1: The food here is awful!
Woman 2: Yes it is, and SUCH SMALL PORTIONS!
Woman 1: The new jobs don't pay squat!
Woman 2: Yes, and there are SO FEW OF THEM!
pavel.chichikov wrote:
It's all for the lesser good
With Jobs Scarce, Age Becomes an Issue - WSJ.com
May 19, 2009
"Age discrimination in the workplace has long been a concern for the 55-and-older set. In this downturn, however, younger workers may have as much to fear as their more-mature colleagues."
Buy low rent high!
Comrade Elmer Fudd wrote:
Flip side, I saw an ad by attorneys saying that you are entitled to disability and they will fight the government for you
to get what is yours by right of being an American.
So, everybody wins, I guess.
" I am still mostly in cash "
A wise choice for the time being.
thread tune:
YouTube - The Rolling Stones W/ Axl Rose And Izzy Stradlin - Salt of the Earth Live
Rickkk wrote:
2/3rds.
mp wrote: "The nominal ISM printed at 43.4"
Link, please? I don't see that number in either of the latest U.S. manufacturing or non-manufacturing reports, but I must be looking in the wrong place. TIA.
Sebastian
I'm 100% in pumpkin futures at the moment.
Cash as in electrons? Nothing is safe.
This reminds me of a venture I attempted years ago, to combine health insurance and workers comp coverages, one plan reducing costs over 25% (huge money) for employers which at least had a possibility of trickling down to employee wages.
The lawyers shot the idea down. No trickle down for you!
Learned to not even try to fight the psycho's, they have all the power....
watch that Lucy doesn't pull the pumpkin at the last second
Seven Samurai wrote:
I enjoyed this perspective on SSI:
The Last Psychiatrist: The Terrible, Awful Truth About Supplemental Security Income
Lurking Lawyer wrote:
Hallow'e'en comes but once a year.
Regrets Sebastian. And it is a indicator when you short. Good luck.
Agronox wrote:
I saw that and thought it probably correct.
Lurking Lawyer wrote:
I'm buying Roman candles for $.10 on the dollar.
black dog
Zirp is crushing pension plans.
not just pensions ... cue AllenM's petty rentier liquidation ... say you're retired and have $1 million liquid ... earning $20K to $30K/year in interest/dividend income ... that plus SS and medicare enough to meet monthly nut? ... if you're a petty rentier used to the trips, fancy meals, new cars, country club lifestyle?
$1500 month SS is equivalent to $1 million in a money market.
RBS 'Glitch' Goes Airborne As Biggest Russian Bank Halts All Credit, Debit Card Operations | ZeroHedge
" RUSSIA-SBERBANK-CARDS-MALFUNCTION MOSCOW. July 6. (Interfax) – Sberbank of Russia (RTS: SBER) has suspended credit and debit card operations due to a technical malfunction, the bank told Interfax. “All cards are not being serviced,” it said."
All your rubles are belong to us! :snicker:
ANTIPATHY wrote:
Until the money market breaks the buck, that is.
rosethorn wrote:
Chort! Sukin syn.
Gee, weak jobs. What a shock!
RBS 'Glitch' Goes Airborne As Biggest Russian Bank Halts All Credit, Debit Card Operations | ZeroHedge
How many times did these glitches occur among the world's largest and likely highest paid IT services groups before the European financial crisis pulled back the curtain and showed the proximity of the liquidty cliff for so many of the 'biggest' banks in the world?
ANTIPATHY wrote:
ANTIPATHY wrote:
so a $3K/mo wage slave is a double millionaire. winning
median household is in high cotton!
Eric wrote:
This week could be THE week?
"Until the money market breaks the buck, that is."
That'll never happen. Ben has got their backs.
MM funds are as safe as GLD.
David Rosenberg invented nominal PMI a number of years ago.
(PMI Composite + PMI Price Index) / 2 = Nominal PMI
Many bond analysts use it.
poic wrote:
Contrary to popular belief, Ben is not the Wizard of Oz.
rosethorn wrote:
I tried to use my Sberbank of Russia debit card at Hooters this morning with no luck. Frankly, it was a bit embarrassing. I will never get another Russian debit or credit card again. My Bank of Siam cards never have problems.
We're totally F'd -- I'm getting that Shelly Winter's kinda feeling:
YouTube - The Poseidon Adventure
(full speed ahead; don't worry about the tsunami of old people and the sudden impacts of a generational change never before seen on Earth ...)
The New Arthurian Economics
All of that increase in government debt has not restored the Japanese economy, even after 20 years and more.
Eric I was going to add in a risky money market fund.
In a US Treasury money market, $1500/Month SS is worth more than $1.5 milion.
playing the world's saddest song on the world's smallest violin
Whatever is best for Bens banks....how many trillion in derviatives....mostly interest rate swaps...
Former Idealist wrote:
pegged to LIBOR.
Georgist
George has also been accused of exaggerating the importance of his "all-devouring rent thesis" in claiming that it is the primary cause of poverty and injustice in society.[22] More recent critics have claimed that increasing government spending has rendered a land tax insufficient to fund government. Georgists have responded by citing a multitude of sources showing that the total land value of nations like the US is enormous, and more than sufficient to fund government ....
'Bye-bye, Miss American Pie' – then US helicopter appears to fire on Afghans
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2012/jul/06/bye-bye-american-pie-afghanistan
Video released on internet appears to show US helicopter crew singing before blasting Afghans with a missile
ANTIPATHY wrote:
So the people with $1M to invest wind up moving into corporate bonds, dividend stocks, rental properties, anything with a payout stream greater than they can get from the MMF. Thus driving those yields down to the point where they no longer properly compensate investors for the additional risk and forcing newer investors to venture farther afield still.
Eventually you wind up with veritable smorgasboard of investment options, every single one of them unattractive.
Hey, wait - we're there.
yuan wrote:
My ears have never strained so F'ing hard to hear something so moving ...
it's all a wash, the swaps net out to zero, neither a winner nor loser shall thou be, those broker
are just higg's boson anyway
Mook
the idea is to force us to invest in crooked schemes that are controlled such as the stock market.
Former Idealist wrote:
Yep. These are the rentiers that AllenM goes on about, and correctly.
The problem with health care is it makes people live too long and it burdens the younger generations. When I run for president, my platform will to limit health care to every person to 1 major surgery, 2 minor surgeries, 1 face lift, and your choice of 1 vaccination during a lifetime. Unless they can pay for it themselves, because rich people deserve to live longer.
Mook wrote:
Hot money chasing any reasonable return. Now how do you suppose so much hot money wound up sloshing around ?
Doc Holiday wrote:
mp wrote: "David Rosenberg invented nominal PMI a number of years ago.
(PMI Composite + PMI Price Index) / 2 = Nominal PMI
Many bond analysts use it."
Got it, 43.35, down from 50.5 in May.
Sebastian
Rob Dawg wrote:
Ah, but Calpers plans to make money hand over fist with Spanish debt.
RayOntheFarm
My money is not hot. Spent 40 years earning it.
here's what you get for 1.6 million dollars ...
PROPERTY VALUES; Real Estate for $1.6 Million - NY Times
...
taxes in MA are heavy... plus that old brick house at 7k+, how is it heated Natty?
ANTIPATHY wrote:
why is there smoke curling out of your bank account?
Comrade Elmer Fudd wrote:
It's not just hot, it must be on FIRE!
Nearly A Third Of Private Sector Jobs Added Were Temporary
June Jobs Report: Private Sector Hiring Misses - Business Insider
Nice pic of Bama
Eric wrote:
to REPORTED LIBOR...
Who cares about this report -- it's F'ing meaningless, because next month there will be a massive tsunami wave of construction jobs, as craploads of people adjust to the recovery and build wave upon wave of
It's all good, the recovery is fully underway and has been for at least 3 years:
The good times are here and just as deficits don't matter, jobs don't either ....
"Cash as in electrons? Nothing is safe."
Everything is relative. The voice of experience.
ANTIPATHY wrote:
More accurately, the idea is to
ify every investment option until it's just as crooked as the stock market, so it doesn't matter where we decide to "invest".
Why do you think I've been so
about the whole concept of Fannie and Freddie doing bulk RRE sales to "qualified investment companies"?
Many bond analysts use it."
...
who sez?
Equity sales slow to weakest since 2008 - The Globe and Mail
Friday, Jul. 06 2012, 11:39 AM EDT
"Just when you think it can't get any quieter for bankers who deal in equities, it does.
Sales of new stock in Canada fell 12.4 per cent in the first half of the year, according to Thomson Reuters figures. The dropoff in the second quarter was huge, as the amount of stock sold slid by 50 per cent from the first quarter, to the lowest total since the financial crisis. Even sales of preferred shares and structured products, which had held up because they could provide yield, went in the tank in the quarter."
to quote rif: feudalism does not build itself. yo.
Mook wrote:
wait until the REIT's are formed and marketed and a new round of petty rentier skinning commences
Elmer Fudd
You flatter me.
Spanish bond yields back above 7% - Jul. 6, 2012
Mook
unbelievable but SO TRUE. Rage Rage....
i guess i should take my cynical pants off
anyway, the tide seems to be going out and it looks like there are a lot of nudists out there
nothing is more intellectually dishonest than cherry picking your statistics (and lazy)
see General Max von Hoffman's berating of Karl Radeck at Brest-Livtost negotiations
for doing the same...
...
Thought Offerings
"Could it really be true that the tool most readily used to manage the economy is a policy lever whose success depends as much as anything on bribing a few employed young adults to move out of their parents' basements, while at the same time exerting other contractionary effects on the economy that the mainstream fails to discuss?!?"
San Diego Indian casino files bankruptcy - Lansner on Real Estate : The Orange County Register
"As a condition of opening the casino, the tribe agreed in 2005 to pay the county about $600,000 a year but has never made any of the payments, according to court records."
Doesn't help the county budget...
Guy just said in here, that he heard from an agent-
There is no SF RE inventory because Obummer is leaning on the banks not to foreclose, etc. so he can get re-elected.
Not really buying the rumor; but, ineteresting that a realtor is running around spreading the meme. Interesting times indeed...
Next bubble will be the over-leveraging of people renting homes:
How to Get Financing for Rental Properties | Zillow Blog
OP-ED COLUMNIST; Off and Out With Mitt Romney - NY Times
July 5, 2012 - The Krugmeister
"How did Mr. Romney make all that money? Was it in ways suggesting that what was good for Bain Capital, the private equity firm that made him rich, would also be good for America?
And the answer is no.
Bain didn’t build businesses; it bought and sold them. Sometimes its takeovers led to new hiring; often they led to layoffs, wage cuts and lost benefits. On some occasions, Bain made a profit even as its takeover target was driven out of business. None of this sounds like the kind of record that should reassure American workers looking for an economic savior.
And then there’s the business about outsourcing.
Consider one of Mr. Romney’s most famous remarks: “Corporations are people, my friend.” When the audience jeered, he elaborated: “Everything corporations earn ultimately goes to people. Where do you think it goes? Whose pockets? Whose pockets? People’s pockets.” This is undoubtedly true, once you take into account the pockets of, say, partners at Bain Capital (who, I hasten to add, are, indeed, people). But one of the main points of outsourcing is to ensure that as little as possible of what corporations earn goes into the pockets of the people who actually work for those corporations.
Just to be clear, outsourcing is only one source of the huge disconnect between a tiny elite and ordinary American workers, a disconnect that has been growing for more than 30 years. And Bain, in turn, was only one player in the growth of outsourcing. So Mitt Romney didn’t personally, single-handedly, destroy the middle-class society we used to have. He was, however, an enthusiastic and very well remunerated participant in the process of destruction; if Bain got involved with your company, one way or another, the odds were pretty good that even if your job survived you ended up with lower pay and diminished benefits.
In short, what was good for Bain Capital definitely wasn’t good for America. "
"Humankind cannot stand very much reality."
T. S. Eliot (1888 - 1965)
cdresearch wrote:
CR took the over. That's the shock.
got the perfect tag for Bill and CR:
Built a house up on that ass, that’s an ass state
.................................................
(lyrics by Kanye West "Mercy")
YouTube - Mercy (Explicit)
Comrade Elmer Fudd wrote:
They can't restart the FIRE engine any other way
Duke, is that directed at me?
I ask this because I noticed your comment concerning Nominal PMI. You evidently haven't heard of it.
Feckless Ness wrote:
Not really, the new focus on betting here suggests that this blog is morphing into a mini-casino (to support
and
.
Doc Holiday wrote:
Been around for some time, Credit cards. My property management company won't do it.
mp wrote:
I think he created it!
(or at least, banged the woman who did).
What was the conjure clock update MP?
mp, no.
I don't remember it from my days... curious if that proves out in back testing.
...
it was more directed at a True Believer in the Wright Model B
Lobbyist Ben Dover wrote:
I thought those were just used to adjust debt to income ratios?
Oman, the last update was on July 3 at 8:13 PM
The time is now 11:57:55.1 PM
Eric wrote:
with a pipe?
Darkness at the break of noon Shadows even the silver spoon :
YouTube - The Byrds - It's Alright Ma - Ballad Of Easy Rider.wmv
Doc Holiday wrote:
I think the popular thought is leveraging wealth.
Thanks. The .1 is a nice touch.
YouTube - I'm Farming and I Grow It
Kansas State University Students Make Farm 'Sexy And I Know It Parody'
If you dig up that post, there are several GoogleDoc graphs that go with it.
ResistanceIsFeudal wrote:
And where is my scooter?!?
Why all the focus all the time on the 25-54 demographic? Do we really think there's not a ton of people that need to work between the ages of 54-64? And is there not even an increasing number of people that need to work in the 65+ age group as well? Are we to assume that these people don't really matter as much?