June Employment Report: 80,000 Jobs, 8.2% Unemployment Rate
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CalculatedRisk on Fri, 07/06/2012 - 5:42am (242 comments)
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No cash.
No jobs.
Please don't die Kevin!
8 percent baked into the cake.
I told ja!
No one can afford houses now. Housing recovery over!!!
Bathtub-shaped recovery.
C
froghat wrote:
Some can, and barring complete collapse some always will.
Tweet of the Day:
"We're gained back 3.8 million of the 8.8 million jobs lost between Jan 2008 and Feb 2010"
Hey!!!!! I see some blue ink on that first graph!
Might I suggest lightening the shade up a tad, and spreading into a more bar-like shape?
Counterpointer wrote:
It is definitely not as rigid of a recovery as previous ones. Kinda flaccid actually.
This is not shocking nor unexpected. Hours worked and pay going up have to do with working to death their current employees as they get rid of/don't replace the others.
so much for the "over". Say hello to QE3 ...
Most average responsible folks are going to postpone big spending till after the election. IMO.
Hours worked, pay per hour, and weekly earning are the one bright spot in the report. People who survived continue to claw their way back, but there is still far too many unemployed, EMRATIO is not improving, and U6 is on it's way back up.
Uh, "average" responsible folks are not going to be spending "big" ever again. I think you mean the above average set
Counterpointer wrote:
A recovery small enough to drown in a bathtub.
Say hallo, to my little friend!
(hulloooooo QE3)
Never underestimate the spending potential of the "average" american.
People will spend years picking around regional recoveries in housing, and sector recoveries in jobs, looking to broaden these oscillations out into national trends. But the national trend in the economy will remain flat, at best. It's the end of growth, and the forces at work here will not be reversed by improvement in exports (which may very well continue to improve), growth in regional manufacturing (which is already underway), or happy stories about certain regional job markets. No. We have a structural unemployment problem now, overlaid with the debt constraint, and a new generation of young people not able to buy houses, or have children--and they are learning how best to not consume. "Let us not speak anymore of recovery."
G
Yep.
I was grasping for that exact joke and couldn't grab it!
Ugh. Long week, and Friday night is here.
C
Neighbors to the north missed on jobs, as well.
Canadian dollar falls after Canada's jobs report - MarketWatch
The Canadian dollar lost ground on Friday after the government said the nation's employment was little changed in June, though trading may be overshadowed by the U.S. payrolls report released at the same time. Economists expected Canada's economy to add 5,000 jobs, according to RBS Capital Markets.
Comrade Kristina wrote:
You mean I shouldn't buy that new sports car I have been eying for a week?
You are clearly above average yagij
The Lorax wrote:
Key word is responsible.
You clearly don't have enough consumer confidence to afford those payments.
Lobbyist Ben Dover wrote:
Average and responsible? Where are these people of which you speak?
I've finally given up on figuring out what is wrong with my murano and I'm dropping it off at the dealership this morning. Grrrrrrr I hate not being able to fix something.
GDD9000 wrote:
I just cannot bring myself to take that depreciation hit once it leaves the lot.
Average and responsible American... that's like, what, 2% of the population? Not really all that average then.
Meh, you can be responsible all you want, but if you are making poverty/low income wages you ain't buying shit ever. Sorry, just a fact. And the other pertinent fact is half of all Americans are poverty/low income level.
KarmaPolice wrote:
We are out here but you can't see us. Under cover no bling.
Time to do a head count on my double secret toilet paper stash...buy now or....
Comrade Kristina wrote:
maybe you could drop kick it off at said dealership
Lobbyist Ben Dover wrote:
Pleased to make your acquaintance, Lobbyist Ben Dover Vanderbilt.
so much for the "over". Say hello to QE3 ...
FIRST thing that came to mind
.... the final nail in j6p ... gas here up overnight 10 cents a gallon ...
yagij wrote:
Save the dickmobile for your mid-life crisis. That's my plan.
shill wrote:
Toilet Paper-Hoarding Is “Absolutely Fantastic” and “So Cool” | The Hairpin
Keep'em stoopid:
Over 100,000 Local Teaching Jobs Have Been Lost In The Last Year - Business Insider
not too shabby... I called 77k...
The lousy recovery continues. Non-farm payrolls (a key NBER economic indicator) hits yet another new expansion high.
Sebastian
I think its high time we man up in these United States, send them a SNAP card, free cell phone, practically free rent, cash benefits and above all free Chevy Volts...WIN!
This blog, like the rest is getting stale....Later
everything opposite of what i expected
a beat on consensus but lower/same hours worked and weaker wage growth
black dog wrote:
Gas here is crazy. The range for gas within a 20 minute drive is ~20 cents.
Comrade Kristina wrote:
And a lot of "Self Employed" and "Independent Contractors" aren't making a dime.
Lobbyist Ben Dover wrote:
And what exactly is going to happen to these average and responsible people AFTER the elections?
Yeah, I have a bunch of those that hang out at the bar. Living with Mom and 60 years old. They will never work again.
Well, I must be going. Happy BFF!
ResistanceIsFeudal wrote:
I guess I want the d___mobile before I'm "that guy". I'm still young enough to enjoy it without the "mid-life crisis" issue.
Feeling QE3sy?
Have we heard from the "Job Creator in Chief" on this achievement yet ?
KarmaPolice wrote:
This election is like being forced to choose between two hookers with drug resistant STD's. One has syphilis, the other gonorrhea. One or the other has chlamydia and genital warts but we don't find out which 'til next year.
KarmaPolice wrote:
Most see a lesser evil but anticipate less profit, so sharper effort (cut cost) on return. Jobs will be the main whipping point as usual.
Sebastian wrote:
Lousy compared to what? Irrational expectations? 2005 home prices? Wholesale employment of the tattooed-class?
Seems right on target to me as there are plenty of jobs out there.
That's a pretty good cast but your bait is getting old.
shill wrote:
I already can smell the freshness...
the administration's go-to "private economist" ... who invariably sez hundreds of thousands of jobs saved/created ... for whatever policy being pushed.
politico -
MOODY’S MARK ZANDI emails: “All of the data that lead the BLS report suggest a much stronger gain in June than last month’s 79,000 job gain. This includes ADP, the ISM surveys, UI claims, help-wanted advertising and Challenger layoff announcements. I think there are better than even odds of an upside surprise tomorrow. But of course, I’ve been too optimistic in the past several months.”
FROM ZANDI’s client notes: “I expect payroll employment to increase by 125,000 in June, and private sector employment to increase by 135,000. Unemployment will remain unchanged at 8.2%. ... Underlying job growth - abstracting from the vagaries of weather and other technical measurement issues - is between 150,000 and 175,000. Payroll employment gains averaged close to 250,000 per month during the warm December-February period, and given the payback from the warm winter, only 100,000 during the March-May period. The reality in the job market is in between ... The 150,000 - 175,000 underlying monthly job growth is consistent with approximately 2% real GDP growth ... The unemployment rate should be 8% or below by election day.”
black dog wrote:
Isn't it up from a year ago?
black dog wrote:
Zandi has been too optimistic in the past?!?
shill wrote:
Is that an exit redux?
KarmaPolice said:
Sebastian wrote:
The lousy recovery continues.
Lousy compared to what? Irrational expectations?
Yes.
Myself, I've adapted to the new normal, but plenty haven't.
Sebastian
I drop by HCN for the first time in a week only to find that one of my favorite denizens has passed on.
Now I don't much feel like making snarky comments about weak jobs numbers.
RIP, Nova, you will be missed.
KarmaPolice wrote:
The gubmint's going to need neighborhood watches, and what person who believes in America wouldn't want to do their part? A terrorist cell could be anywhere...
Poetry!
Tom Stone wrote:
Oh there's a choice to be had, but, unfortunately, there is also a lot of superficial intellect.
KarmaPolice wrote:
What flavor of d___mobile are you considering?
maria bartiromo led off The Today Show this morning (before release) ... glum ... prepping for QE3 ... kind of blew off today's job number and focused on year end "fiscal cliff", business uncertainty (over not just fiscal cliff, but who might be POTUS) ... headwinds H2 hurting job growth? ... HCN?
energyecon wrote:
I'm guessing he was long going into the number.
Mike in Long Island wrote:
I can get a good deal on a low mileage 2011 Ford Mustang GT, but I'm really kinda fond of the Nissan 370z--mostly because of the intelligent key system.
No jobs in construction. Where is the housing bottom?
Point Out The "Housing Bottom" On This Chart | ZeroHedge
Isn't it up from a year ago?
yes ... with today's report nominal hourly wages up 2% yoy ... how's CPI treating you?
Sebastian wrote:
The isn't anything NEW about this. The years between 2000 - 2008 were catastrophic in terms of reality.
black dog wrote:
Has there been any thought to actually allowing the problems to work themselves out without constant QEx interference.
(OK.... I was almost able to type that without
-> 
).
Eric wrote:
No kidding, though who better qualified to recognize superficial anything?
Is that an exit redux?
Oh no, where will i get my (hourly) stock tips now?
yagij wrote:
SPD?
POIC?
black dog wrote:
Just fine...
I don't live on Social Security.
Banks' debt lifeline for Spain starts to fray
| Reuters
Who might those market makers be, one wonders...
energyecon wrote:
Don't be so hard on yourself.
black dog wrote:
So YoY we have negative real wage growth wrt to purchasing power generally, and if one looks at the necessities of life for ordinary mortals an even greater erosion of purchasing power.
No no, as you have repeatedly demonstrated it all about you...
I like the way the Mustang looks - never driven one. Is the 370z the NISMO version? Nice looking car as well.
I have a soft spot for the audi S5 (someday...). Supercharged v6 @26mpg on highway.
But - yeah - major depreciation hit when you drive off the lot.
The older model had a v8.
http://www.anchoraudi.com/used-Long+Island-2009-Audi-S5-4.2+quattro-WAURV78T49A040232
What is left unsaid is often more powerful and poetic | Biljana Scott | Comment is free | guardian.co.uk
Another reason for preferring implicit communication has to do with face: because in-your-face remarks tend to cause offence, politeness often involves the use of indirect language. Loss of face can all too readily lead to retaliation and the escalation of conflict.
I'm still driving my 11 year old truck.
With any luck, she'll run another 11 years.
"The private sector created 84,000 jobs, while the public sector continued to shrink."
I'm looking forward to Mitt the Mangina to take this bait.
80,000 Jobs Created In June, Unemployment Rate Remains Unchanged | ThinkProgress
Shut yer yap trap
Goldman with another spot on call. Sometime it pays to go with your initial gut reaction.
/A terrorist cell could be anywhere... /
RIF,
Given the Japanesque multigenerational economic stagnation we face, coupled with the fact that we are not a culturally homogenous society, but split right down the middle in a zero sum embrace, the fact that we have maintained an external enemy to focus our gaze for this long is quite a bit of social engineering triumph. All we need to do is further decouple them from us, those apostates from us true believers, and further dehumanize those -crats from these -icans, and conflate them with terrorists, and us with whatever -isms makes us good and them evil. We're getting to a familiar stage of end-stage whatever-ism lacking trust or shared identity. What would be exceptional is a decade more of this decline without a few cities being burnt to the ground.
--bh
Electric turbo chargers are coming, Ford and Subaru have it under development. 1.0 3 cyl will be the new base engine. I wonder if the EPA keeps it out of the US.
Diplomacy, it has been said, is "the art of letting the other party have things your way".
Oh and about that spooky global slowdown:
German Industrial Production Increased More Than Forecast in May - Bloomberg
blackhat wrote:
Well-said, bh. Of course, the parties are both taking on ever more extreme positions so that will certainly facilitate it. Why seek a balance when we can just average out a swing between extremes and appear to all be moderates?
When we "speak the same language", we understand one another without having to spell out our meaning, as is typified by humour, irony, shared allusions and other forms of coded communication. Here, the unsaid serves to create and consolidate a sense of community.
Moment of silence please.
Later Taters.
Mike in Long Island wrote:
Close enough if you get the sports package:
That's Miss Tater to you.
yagij wrote:
Nice car. Skip the 'stang.
There wasn't any jobs growth, zero.
They are just making this shit up.
Sticking with my April 2012 recession call after revisions...
These guys are sandbagging so much shit its just unreal.
OT Japan runs outta cash by October, still borrowing half their budget with a $5 trillion GDP and debt of $10 trillion.
All swans are grey in the dark...
yagij wrote:
I bought a car from a dealership Wednesday for the first time in 14 years. Both cars were pre-owned convertibles (a '95 Miata M-Edition then, a '10 VW Eos now). Adjusted for inflation the purchase price of both was virtually identical.
In exchange for which I receive: a retractable hard-top instead of soft; 4 seats instead of 2; a turbocharged 200hp engine with Tiptronic instead of 112hp with a stickshift; automated top, seats, lights, ignition, and dozens of other things; front and side airbags; electronic stability and traction control; and a list of added convenience and comfort features it will take me years to figure out. Oh, and a bumper-to-bumper warranty for the next 34k miles vs. the 6-mo./6k mile smile-and-a-nod deal I got with the Miata.
It's truly astonishing how far the automotive industry has come in 15 years. Would that more people would relish that fact and start viewing cars as investments rather than "how much a month?" impulse purchases.
On Germany: May Output was led by the Construction/Building sector. Normally a good lead for getting out of a recession, but...
"Analysts didn't share the Economics Ministry's positive outlook for the months ahead. "Given the volatility of the data, another monthly fall in June would be no surprise and would leave industry's contribution to overall economic growth in the second quarter much weaker than in the first three months of the year," Capital Economics Analyst Jonathan Loynes told the AFP news agency. The figures for June are expected to be released soon."
Germany industrial output rebounds despite crisis | Business | DW.DE | 06.07.2012
EUROCONSTRUCT forecasts were revised downwards in course of the current debt crises.
Construction forecasts for this year and next downgraded from -0.3% to -2.1% in 2012 and +1.8% to +0.4% in 2013
Civil engineering sector predicted to be the worst performing over the next three years, with an annual average rate of decline of 1.4%
North/south pattern to projected construction performance anticipated over the next few years, with northern European countries outperforming their southern counterparts
• EUROCONSTRUCT •
--bh
Dangerous sex is the best sex, or so I'm told.....
Mook wrote:
Nope, they are trained to think that way.
10 yr yield today
italy +4 bps ... 6.02%
spain +18 bps ... 6.96% ... over 7% earlier today
Mook wrote:
Even I fight this mentality sometimes. Every time I get close to paying a car off, I start thinking about "upgrading". Almost paid off a 2004 Honda Element--I really kinda miss that car. Now, I'm close to paying off a 2007 Nissan Maxima and I'm already looking for another turn on the hamster wheel o' debt. Granted, I tend to only buy 1 owner, low mileage, used cars. I will admit that comparing my 2000 Honda Accord to the 2007 Nissan Maxima is mind boggling when you look at the feature set and various toys.
Mook wrote:
My view: if it depreciates, it's not an investment. Not that a more long-term view wouldn't be useful for consumers in regard to automobiles though.
Former Idealist wrote:
Paper and ink shortages?
My view: if it depreciates, it's not an investment.
Diamonds in the rust.
ResistanceIsFeudal wrote:
Maybe depreciation is a "law of nature" with the pesky entropy thing haunting us /zen
How long before the computers turn this market around? (Rumors are more important than economic data>)
Maybe depreciation is a "law of nature" with the pesky entropy thing haunting us /zen
ResistanceIsFeudal wrote:
Yes and yes - though it is a capital good.
yagij wrote:
Exactly.
Cars are no different then houses but people are trained to think houses increase and cars decrease.
Breaking news from the Guardian:
LATEST: Serious Fraud Office director, David Green QC, has decided formally to accept the Libor matter for investigation, says the SFO
What will they find?
Oh, and I can't stress this highly enough: If you're going to buy new, become a Costco member immediately.
Their auto-buying program is absolutely amazing.
It takes 5 minutes to fill out their online form. Pick the make and model you're looking for. Within 2 minutes you'll get an e-mail with the Costco-affiliated dealer in your area and within 24 hours (more like 4) you'll get a call back from someone there giving you their bottom-line price. It will likely be hundreds below invoice, possibly thousands, and almost certainly better than you could get through even a week of haggling.
Had I wanted a new Eos I (MSRP $35,120 - invoice $33,740) I could have had one from that dealer for $32,155, plus an extra $1,500 off that price if I wanted to lease.
I have no idea how they make money on a deal like that and I don't care, but do me a favor and avail yourself of it.
The Lorax wrote:
Never underestimate the "average" Merican's desire to spend and borrow to the limit to spend.
Cars are no different then houses but people are trained to think houses increase and cars decrease.
I don't think there are any cars in my state dating back to the 1700s.
Outsider wrote:
They (cars) weren't designed or built to last that long. Neither are a majority of modern houses. It doesn't mean that they don't depreciate, they simply have a longer usable lifespan
Consumer Services is showing the greatest strength this morning? No jobs, no problems. Spend baby spend.
Mook wrote:
The fact that a 32k priced car doesn't make my head explode any longer leaves me feeling unsettled. The other fact that I could possibly afford said car does still make my
UK fraudbuster agrees to probe Libor affair
| Reuters
Who ya gonna call? Fraud buster!
Lobbyist Ben Dover wrote:
Why?
Outsider wrote:
True but look at Cuba for old cars live and the haven't made parts for the in decades.
yagij wrote:
It's really only $32,000 to the salesman getting the commission and the bank issuing the loan. And they of course rake from the sticker price, not your actual cost.
/I have no idea how they make money on a deal like that and I don't care, but do me a favor and avail yourself of it. /
bonus depreciation for the lease option makes leasing much more profitable than selling a car. in a manner of speaking, a dealership is in the business of leasing cars, but will sell them when they have no other option.
--bh
ResistanceIsFeudal wrote:
I'm disappointed RiF; I knew you'd come back with this but I thought it would be far faster than 6 minutes later.
I agree with your philosophy of course (and have said as much here before); I used the word "investment" rather than trying to find a concise phrase for "buy a car that will minimize operating costs and, ultimately, depreciation over your entire ownership period, using a method that will minimize transactional and financing costs". Which doesn't quite roll off the tongue the same way.
Lobbyist Ben Dover wrote:
Again, why? Are you so caught up in
/ 
that it runs your life that much? Sad.
lack political will....same problem worldwide.
How would that help the banks?
Tom Stone wrote:
Tom, That is very optimistic of you. Show us your real pessimistic opinions.
Egregiously (OT)
God help me, but I added to my short position this morning, SDS at $15.72.
Sebastian
Comrade Kristina wrote:
What's it doing? And do yourself a favor and invest in a cheap code reader....
Mook wrote:
Nah, then everyone would be on to me!
The word you're looking for is 'cost containment' IMHO. Buying a depreciating commodity is always and everywhere an exercise in risk management not investment.
Former Idealist wrote:
Completely agree.
Later Mistaters
How long before the computers turn this market around? (Rumors are more important than economic data>)
not soon enough ... i'm always cranky until i get Karma's 'stock market = economy comment' jolt ...
Master taters?
bearly wrote:
nah, he's on vacation in NH, letting Bobby Jindal do the heavy lifting...
dilbert dogbert wrote:
One has a bad crack habit and owes a large amount of money to her pimp, and the other is highly unstable and there's a 70% chance she'll sneak back inside and kill you in your sleep.
justaskin wrote:
Reread it is not a win /lose but lesser evil contest again. Adapting to an scaled back offense or a bigger defense from a business, ROI perspective.
a dealership is in the business of leasing cars, but will sell them when they have no other option.
don't forget the servicing scam!
Housing report Phx Metro
Lots of charts,
http://www.armls.com/docs/stat-ppi-2012/stat-july-2012.pdf?utm_source=iContact&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Communication&utm_content=STAT+July+2012
The job czar was that asshole over at GE I believe. Don't hear much about him anymore, maybe hiding with Corzine. Both miserable failures.
Lobbyist Ben Dover wrote:
WTF
CalculatedRisk wrote:
Unemployment is bullish!
Whites-only Christian gathering riles some Alabama neighbors - U.S. News
GREECE DROPS PLAN TO SEEK SOFTER TERMS - FT’s Kerin Hope in Athens: “Greece’s new government has dropped a plan to seek softer terms for its second bailout following warnings that it would be rejected by international lenders. Yannis Stournaras, finance minister, said the governing coalition would have to accelerate reforms before asking for modifications in a €174bn programme agreed in February ... ‘The programme is off-track and we can’t ask for anything from our creditors before we get it back on course,’ Mr Stournaras told the [FT]. ‘There is light at the end of the tunnel but it is a long tunnel,’ he added. Greece’s change of tack came as EU and IMF officials visiting Athens this week echoed a statement by Christine Lagarde, the IMF managing director, in a television interview that she was “not in negotiations or re-negotiations mood” on the Greek bailout.’” Greece drops demand to ease bailout terms - FT.com
sportsfan wrote:
I'm sure there is a lovely space in Compton that would be happy to entertain these fine Americans.
This is very OT, but money talks...an Iranian terrorist group, listed as such by the State dept. and responsible for the deaths of 6 americans, has enlisted lots of right-wing republicans to lobby to have it removed from terrorist list. among them, Rudy Guiliani, Ed Rendell and John Bolton. Those neocons will dance to anyone's tune for money.
High-priced advocacy raises questions for supporters of Iranian exile group - The Washington Post
Lobbyist Ben Dover wrote:
Barring paradigm swings (and the folks directly connected to the funnel), who's sitting in the big chair is not much of an issue for everyday economic life. Maybe you buy that "this is the election that will save America as we know it" stuff......
yagij wrote:
I wonder how many laundromats they have in Alabama... someone's gotta wash all those white sheets. I'm thinking yagij business opportunity!
fried wrote:
there's quite the back story on the group, and yes, political operatives get paid to lobby...
Ed Rendell is a Democrat.
Icepick wrote:
"Money doesn't talk, it swears" is a bipartisan proposition.
Politicians are whores when it comes to money. The MEK issue is not surprising at all.
Shit, the US coddles Saudi Arabia, which of course coddled most of the 9/11 attackers......
The article also mentions former Obama national security adviser James L. Jones. It's not like only one team is composed of whores.
Bingo.
The confidence of the nation’s business leaders in the future of the economy has dropped dramatically, according to a new survey by the Conference Board.
More CEOs surveyed view the economy negatively than positively. Only 17 percent viewed the economy positively in the second quarter of 2012, compared to 67 percent in the first quarter.
Only 20 percent expect an improvement in six months, down from 59 percent.
The survey polls 800 CEOs whose companies are members of the Conference Board. Typically, 80 to 100 CEOs respond, the group says. The results from the new survey are from May and June.
Survey: CEO confidence in economy drops dramatically - The Hill's On The Money
Did Nova really die? Tell me that is some sort of metaphor....
black dog wrote:
Interested to hear Haralambos "sandals on the sidewalk" on this
ing turn of events...
justaskin wrote:
Simple method of spinning (Spooling) the turbo charger on demand with an electric motor regardless of engine RPM. Benefits of a super charger with out the HP loss from the engine and at low RPM. I see it being used from a stop till exhaust flow at cruise can taking over. Very wide HP/TQ ban.
Couple it with the flux capacitor and we are golden.
Lurking Lawyer wrote:
The oldest profession has never been limited only to politicians:
FDA: Dr. Drew was paid $275,000 to promote antidepressant - TODAY Entertainment
Icepick wrote:
Yes, he passed away.
I'm starting to think with the worlds economies in decay, oil price will go down even if Iran closes the Strait.
Only 17 percent viewed the economy positively in the second quarter of 2012, compared to 67 percent in the first quarter.
Well, see, the weather was really nice this last winter when global warming kicked in, and then this spring it started to suck when global warming kicked in, and summer is really sucking now that global warming has kicked in, but it will get nice again in the fall when global warming kicks in, so they should be BULLISH on the future....
CR failed to mention the good news which is that hours are up.
justaskin wrote:
There you go again. There is no win. Just cause and effect and where you fit in to it.
Former Idealist wrote:
Not until China hits that brick wall with the pedal all the way to the floor... then it is a lock.
Yes, he passed away.
Damn.
Well, technically, Summer of Recovery III starts in July, so we can discount this report as payback for the warm Winter.
mr_clueless - your take on CEO survey?
Everybody has their price.
Very cool. How will they be cooled? Same way as now with oil from the engine?
Whiskey did a nice link called S.H.A.M.E. which did an in-depth takedown on Dr. Drew, as well as Malcolm Gladwell, the New Yorker star writer. Well worth reading.
gregor.us wrote:
Bingo!
Someone is starting to see through the smoke.
Could happen.
Yancey Ward wrote:
You mean we have to wait another four weeks to get the first real number? Bummer.
Icepick,
you are correct that Rendell is a dem, but he flies that flag of convenience only....he's a neocon, which crosses both "parties". Sorry if I was unclear.
Mike in Long Island wrote:
I haven't thought of that but shouldn't be a big deal.
Lurking Lawyer wrote:
Alleged rape victim acquitted in priest assault - SFGate
Nice tie-in from TOD:
The Oil Drum | Lower Oil Prices - Not a Good Sign!
Summer of Recovery III starts in July,
summer of 2010 - $100 billion fiscal stimulus + "jackson hole"
summer of 2011 - debt ceiling deal reached end of july/first of august
summer of 2012 - ??
Well if they come us with something that keeps them cooler and/or eliminates the need to let the car idle so the turbo can cool down that would be pretty sweet.
Maybe a closed loop system with glycol that uses some combo of the radiator/ac system for cooling. Cut down on oil burning a bit.
Sebastian wrote:
It takes a certain sort of... genius... to be bullish on the economy and still short the market for months.
Obama comes out of vacation, sees his spectre of reelection and predicts six more months of stimulus.
This is the link to NOVA's death notice and guest book.
Stephen Edward Campbell Guest Book: sign their guest book, share your condolences, or read their obituary at Demaine Funeral Home in partnership with the Dignity Memorial network
Transportation bill was passed. That should be good for a little bump.....
Hi energyecon,
I think this was pretty much unavoidable after Lagarde's recent comment that she was not in a mood to negotiate or renegotiate anything. I do not know how much longer they can keep kicking this can. This is up here today: ekathimerini.com | Cyprus says Greek bond deal killed its economy
"Cyprus delivered a tough critique of the euro zone's decision to restructure Greece's private-sector debt on Friday, saying it had effectively thrown the Cypriot economy into turmoil and forced it into bailout of its own."
"For Cyprus, the euro zone's third smallest economy, with a GDP of just 17 billion euros and a large banking exposure to Greece, it meant that Cypriot banks had to write off around 80 percent of the value of their holdings of Greek bonds."
Also up is that Cyprus has asked Russia for a 5bn euro loan. Cyprus has also asked for a European bailout.
This might be of interest to some. It is bank rates for term deposits: Επιτόκια προθεσμιακών καταθέσεων: οι καλύτερες προσφορές
energyecon wrote:
End of Growth Update: Blowing in the Wind | Energy Bulletin
Rob Dawg wrote:
If only.
Rob Dawg wrote:
I feel bad for the town of Punxsutawney, but Camp David is a lot easier to pronounce.
black dog wrote:
Well, according to my "hidden comments" note on HCN, we can use KP's optimism to drive the economy.
Unlike CR, I don't expect to see QEIII in August unless we get dollar index over 83-84, Dow under 10K, and oil (WTI) under 80 on a monthly basis, and unemployment above 8.5.
Thanks Mook. Looking for a pickup.
Mook wrote:
Nice. TCO is likely to be very low between high reliability and high resale value. The lease "price" is probably covered by requiring inhouse financing and inhouse servicing.
Imagine if the Euro were still trading at 80¢.
Ashame about Nova...
Any thoughts on leasing verse buying. We've purchased all of our cars, but I'm considering a lease this go around.
Unlike CR, I don't expect to see QEIII in August unless we get dollar index over 83-84, Dow under 10K, and oil (WTI) under 80 on a monthly basis, and unemployment above 8.5.
ben will be in a tight spot ... next FOMC meeting (first of august) is right when congress goes on summer recess till after labor day ... R reaction will be somewhat muted ... if he pulls QE3 trigger AFTER labor day? ... Oh, boy ...
Yancey Ward wrote:
http://talkingpointsmemo.com/assets_c/2012/07/Third-Man-7-3-12-cropped-proto-custom_28.jpg
I'm not much of a commenter but, I've been here a long time and I will miss Nova.
black dog wrote:
black dog,
I don't think Bernanke pays attention to the politics. I think what has happened is that he has finally realized the limits of his power to change things. This is what has him constrained.
My WAG: we get some emergency stimulus passed in October along the lines of what was passed in April/May 2008.
Thanks for the oil links guys...
Lurking Lawyer wrote:
Not a chance in hell with the Tea Party holding Boehner's nuts.
I don't think Bernanke pays attention to the politics. I think what has happened is that he has finally realized the limits of his power to change things. This is what has him constrained.
and his constituents (wall street)?
don't disagree with your second sentence. i've ALWAYS felt QE3 would do a lot more harm than good to economy.
and if he does do QE3, Mr Market will be looking for "shock and awe" ... if not, watch out ...
FWIW-
My experience. Bought a Mazda 6, 2-3 yrs. ago, no interest. Saw the payoff on my re-fi paperwork. Could prolly sell it for 1,000-1,500 more than I owe. May depend on what you purchase?
Amazing.
They say for every slumdog you see dead ahead there are eight more hidden under the surface.
katiebird wrote:
We will all miss him.
My WAG: we get some emergency stimulus passed in October along the lines of what was passed in April/May 2008.
nope
pull debt ceiling debate forward?
NEW spending when they have sequestered cuts to deal with?
Rob Dawg said: "They say for every slumdog you see dead ahead there are eight more hidden under the surface."
I live in hope.
Sebastian
Eric wrote:
"We're broke!"
perhaps I am going out on a limb here but
I don't think we will get a QE3 in August.
has anyone considered the political implications of
such a move?
...
Sebastian wrote:
Eh, our economy is so titanic, what could happen?
Duke of Con Dao wrote:
2008 redux.... just how many things happened then that everyone said would "never" happen "in an election year"?
I believe the phrase is: it's only the tip of the slumdog....
Does dipensing w/the seq. cuts = stimulus?
No chance for emergency stimulus. Not with the political races, etc.
Feh. It's only affecting steerage and third class.
Eh, our economy is so titanic, what could happen?
no matter what ... the band will play on ...
I expect some serious panic from both parties come the fall.
Lurking Lawyer wrote:
Panic from one, glee from another.
Duke of Con Dao said: "perhaps I am going out on a limb here but
I don't think we will get a QE3 in August."
I don't think we're going to get QE3 in August based on economic weakness. We're still creating jobs (although at a low level) and the unemployment rate isn't rising (although it's still high).
However, I could easily see QE3, in whatever form it takes, based on a financial/credit/liquidity crisis out of the Eurozone.
Sebastian
Does dipensing w/the seq. cuts = stimulus?
i'll let Karma be the arbiter ...
All the better for finger-pointing. No way red team goes for more spending that's the platform - just watch Fox or listen to talk radio. Only thing would be a tax-cut; but, can't see that happening.
Only thing possible now is some flailing by Bernank.
2008 Redux?
...
that was an emergency...
...
it's not like the economy lost 250k jobs.
make a QE3 move before the election and if Romney gets
elected Ben's
...
Lurking Lawyer wrote:
There's been some serious budget preemption. Looks like we won't need to address the debt ceiling until after the elections.
NEEDS. MOAR. GLUTEN.
"You won't be needing these anymore"
Rob Dawg said: "Eh, our economy is so titanic, what could happen?"
"If anything, our economy is soaring, like the Hindenberg." Stephen Colbert, leader of my Nation.
Sebastian
ResistanceIsFeudal wrote:
GLUTEN - it's got what plants crave!
umop, I think the
and 
are having trouble believing their own shit. The people have stopped long ago... these are the same guys that got us into this mess....
KarmaPolice wrote:
There has been a massive decline in the number of students for each teacher over the last few decades. A lot of people don't see an increase in the educational achievement of the students.
YouTube - 'No chance of unity government in Syria'
Is there a longer time period for the Change in Jobs Payroll per Month chart? I'd be really interested in seeing the changes since the turn of the century. - I believe we've had over a decade of terrible job creation and that's contributing to the terribly slow recovery.
I live in hope.
Sebastian
four years into this crisis and I have come to believe that temperament not savy or intelligence has the most to do with investment attitudes. I have been waiting for the end for two decades whereas you believe it is all going to get better.
Unemployment rate for blacks jumps to 14.4%...
Rate stuck at 11% for Hispanics...
One-third at temp agencies...
Rob Dawg wrote:
That's true. Around these parts you'd never know there was anything wrong at all. It's like the early 2000's... Just a few more comm'l vacancies and slightly cheaper houses. Plenty of new luxury apartments and upscale restaurants and shopping coming online. Huzzah!