matt

I reiterate my call for nominal conforming loan amounts up to $1 million to help sustain this housing recovery.

Paper Economy - A US Real Estate Bubble Blog: 2007 Goldman Sachs Housing Conference 

Rassman added “As soon as they believe prices are no longer falling, consumers will come back.”

YouTube - Cherokee Memorial Song

Gone.

If Goldman made this call, does this mean that they will take the lead in bringing back the secondary RMBS market? I fondly remember back at the height of the financial crisis some financial buffoon claiming that the secondary market for RMBS would be back in 3 weeks.

ThE bOtToM iS iN f'YeAH

Is that what your ass doctor says to you?

CR quoted:

gain of 0.2% from 2012Q1 to 2013Q1 and another 1.4% from 2012Q1 to 2013Q1

So what is the gain from 2012Q1 to 2013Q1: 0.2% or 1.4%?

Not here, not yet. Close in some areas and price tiers.

what crawled up poic's ass?

is this a bottom as in a flatline and an extension of the L-recovery?

"RockyR wrote:
Tue, 07/03/2012 - 6:11pm
what crawled up poic's ass?"

Gnome tried to. I told him hang out with Duke if he wants to behave like that.

accuweather.com

... oops, wrong window

nova vive

Phx metro prices are moving up fast. By about 8% on average, per CS.
More for the lower tier (200% in some cases not counting carpet & paint), less as you go up the food chian.
Also seeing about a 20% increase in the nice burbs. But not sure yet if the appraisils are coming in at the contract price.

If the bulk sales to the investor groups keep properties from coming on the market for sale - it may not drop much later.

HoMiE dOnT pLaY dAr GaMe

You will be visited this night by three ghosts:

The ghost of past,
the ghost of present,
and the ghost of future!

Mike_PNW wrote:

maybe Fedgov should offer free massages to anyone buying a house..everything else has been tried

Buy a house, we'll give you a job!

Does Goldman have outstanding derivative bets that are tied to this "information", CR? If so, you are aiding their game.

MattFea wrote:

Still plenty out there untouched, unbid upon, not foreclosed yet...

Yep.

Buy a house, we'll give you a job!

happy ending if you go for the pergranisteel upgrade!!

CalculatedRisk wrote:

This is the US economic group

So they have no contact whatsoever with the proprietary trading desk? Will Mr. Blankfein take an oath (unlike Mr. Dimon, protected from such indignity by Chairman Bachus)?

I seriously believe that crooks like this should use their families to bet with, and if they lose, there's a price to pay; old world fun ...

I see I am late to the thread...

CalculatedRisk wrote:

The Goldman economics group was way ahead of most of Wall Street on the downside.

Big fucking deal.

Mike_PNW wrote:

happy ending if you go for the pergranisteel upgrade!!

Strippers if you get the special!*

*Strippers may or may not be required to be housed in the at owner cost. Prices and participation may vary based on location. Strippers may or may not be good looking.

Enjoy the beer and BBQ gnome

tell me something new

Dinner:

Grass Fed, Grilled NY Strip Steak, Grilled Sweet Corn and Shiitake risotto.

hard to make $$ with a you aholes on vacation

get back back to work!

You riding the same old trails or trying something new?

Outsider wrote:

Can't figure that one out.

I'm self employed and there are many things that need doing.

Btw, you need a breath mint.

Agronox wrote:

Have a little respect, yogi...

Goldman is the . CR , as host, is entitled to his opinion...

"The Goldman analysts must be..."

Why do we always quote Goldman analysts?

Rickkk wrote:

Why do we always quote Goldman analysts

Because there are no Saloman Brothers analysts?

Regardless of who calls what - I do know what is occuring in my own back yard.
Prices have been increasing, a lot, for at least the last six months.
Six months is more than a blip, here we have a trend.

And yes, there could be something out of left field to drop prices again.
But it would have to be something really, really bad.

If we are near the bottom, I would expect the number of foreclosures (both residential and CRE) to be trailing off. In my local market I'm not seeing that yet. The banks still have a fair amount of dead wood to be worked out (or chopped as the case may be).

If I had to make a bottom prediction, I'm thinking more like 4Q12 or 1Q13.

josap wrote:

Regardless of who calls what - I do know what is occuring in my own back yard.
Prices have been increasing, a lot, for at least the last six months.
Six months is more than a blip, here we have a trend.

The housing market seems to be dead where I am in Venco. Not much even listed, and those are at wishing prices.
Down in SM, there are a number of listings in 90402, for example. Nothing under 1.6 million though. No idea if anyone is biting.

Goldman Sachs it the last man standing. When they file for bankruptcy, it will be the end of era.

The business model of giving out free macroeconomic in exchange for stock commission is broken. The cost of the analysis team is going up and the cash flow from commissions is going down as Wall Street firms are disintermediated.

RayOnTheFarm wrote:

If we are near the bottom, I would expect the number of foreclosures

The foreclosures here will increase as well, as will mods and short sales.
And not be put on the market or sold to investor groups.
The banks have figured out they can indeed control the supply. They paniced all at once. If they would have figured things out in a calm state of mind - prices would not have dropped as much or as fast. Everything they are doing now should have been done two or more years ago.

What I am waiting to see is if the banks stop lowering the auction prices. If they start to only accept the debt again, they have investors waiting to buy.

HomeGnome wrote:

Usually every CrackerJack Redneck is shooting off every damn thing.

Firework inflationary prices?

MattFea wrote:

Firework inflationary prices?

I don't know, Matt.
I just note that there are only a few random fireworks going off every hour.
In past years; it's been a freaking FIREshow for a week!

CR single-handledly holds up the residential real estate market? Who needs Superman? He can only stop a speeding locomotive.

CR hasn't convinced me that the "bottom is in" nor will he.
I have two eyes and a brain.
I'll observe and think for myself, thank you.

CR hasn't convinced me that the "bottom is in" nor will he.

Fall/winter is going to be very interesting up here. An awful lot of for sale signs out..not much selling as far as I can tell.

Rajesh wrote:

CR single-handledly

Goldman Sachs helps out with free research.

As they say in poker, "you can't bluff an idiot."

Nova, there are so many of us who love you so much.

youtube

I think you had the faith to hear to the diesels hummin'. I'll see you around the bend, my friend.

[People Get Ready](YouTube - Curtis Mayfield - People Get Ready - #8)

Im gonna do the same trail Gnome.

If I can get my fat ass in gear I may even push and do the last :vomit comet: mile

We still have the same five houses for sale on our block that have been for sale for years...

lol..I guess they don't even bother to pick up much any more when they get a showing..

Blah, Blah, Blah.

You're a dick.

We are the pimple, on the far side of reality, compared to lamestream media that programs most of America.

For what's it's worth, I have been agreeing with CR- we have seen this bottom.

Now, the big question is why does the equity market continue to levitate?

On the other hand, nothing says a straight up trajectory is guaranteed.

So, on the whole, real estate has made a bottom in real terms, but now we need to start up inflation adjusted, once we get some inflation in wages.

Otherwise, we are just making nothing from nothing, again.

Someday this war's gonna end...

Rajesh wrote:

CR single-handledly holds up the residential real estate market? Who needs Superman? He can only stop a speeding locomotive.

dang it, either missed the edit or a VERY important phrase

You gonna beat Goldman's house handicap team of savvy MIT Dr.'s, blessed by CR?

(Oh yeah, if you go on a win streak, they can get unlimited rebuys at the discount window)

MBW wrote:

(We need a lamppost or a pike icon.)

Or a... guillotine?

Hey Bosch<

Any work on The Albatross today?

How's your garden looking this year?
It was totally awesome last year.

Anonymous Bosch wrote:

Or a... guillotine?

I'm strongly anti-capital punishment... but I'm beginning to wonder if exceptions should be made.

MBW wrote:

I'm strongly anti-capital punishment... but I'm beginning to wonder if exceptions should be made.

What about a voodoo bankster doll ?

MBW wrote:

See, this is why I ask for Cliff Notes

• gluten
• f
• and/or
• 
• 
• foodie bragging
• North Korean supermodels with adams apples
• YouTube - Funkadelic - One Nation Under A Groove [12" Limited Edition Remix]

Bubblisimo Gerkinov wrote:

foodie bragging

Thank you, Bubblisimo.

MBW wrote:

I'm strongly anti-capital punishment... but I'm beginning to wonder if exceptions should be made.

Such as an exception for capitalist punishment?

Bubblisimo Gerkinov wrote:

North Korean supermodels with adams apples

I missed that part. Can we go back to that for a moment?

Very good Bosch.

1 currency now -yogi wrote:

old Raoul Dahl story

Since you didn't mention the name of the story, I went off looking for it. It does sound interesting after all.

I didn't find that one yet, but this one made me smile;
Parson's Pleasure (short story) - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

poic wrote:

I know you're from the South but didn't they ever teach you the difference between feet and vertical feet?

There's no need to be short with me, brah!
Are there any giant rocks or tree roots on that stretch?

poic wrote:

25%++ grades

I've done a few rides where there seemed to be more carrying than riding.

Damnit, you fvcker.
Now I wanna go !

LIBOR was created (probably in a smoke filled room) when a bunch of British Banks agreed that rather than competing the the open market they would simply set a reference rate for interest on overseas Dollar loans (often called Eurodollar loans.)

The L in LIBOR stands for London. The collusion of banks to set interest rates would be illegal on American soil. Federal law reserves the manipulation of interest rates to the Federal Open Market Committee. But in the almost totally unregulated world of off-shore banking, LIBOR was very successful.

Unlike the FOMC, which theoretically had a mandate to stable prices and low unemployment, the member banks that set LIBOR have no responsibility to the public, LIBOR is set based on the bank's interest. While the bank actions misreporting interest rates during the financial crisis may have been in bad faith with its banking partners and highly immoral, it broke no laws. LIBOR is purely a privately negotiated agreement. I don't know if there is even a contract which describes its rules and bylaws.

The bankers giveth LIBOR, the bankers taketh away LIBOR.

The bankers have done many evil and stupid things, but I am amazed the amount of anger being vented about this minor incident.

poic wrote:

Rocks, rubble, 25%++ grades etc..

Wouldn't it be more tragic meeting your untimely fate on a thunderous, screaming piece of Merican-made steel? (Harley Davidson)

Anonymous Bosch wrote:

North Korean supermodels with adams apples

I missed that part. Can we go back to that for a moment?

josap wrote:

Regardless of who calls what - I do know what is occuring in my own back yard.

We have a feeding frenzy on the low end, if you don't have at least 50% down and aren't willing to pay more than the appraised value, forget it. This stops a little above $400k, Lots of cash buyers all the way up the food chain after that, but not 10-20 offers and generally more normal 10%-35% down payments.Things really slow above $650k. People seem to be "Fleeing to safety" and perhaps chasing a lousy yield. those low end properties don't make economic sense to me, but they do to the buyers.

Rajesh wrote:

The bankers have done many evil and stupid things, but I am amazed the amount of anger being vented about this minor incident.

It's a rate that touches almost everyone in one way or another. Why does it surprise you that its fabrication would piss people off?

maybe I'm just still p*ssed that my real estate transactions prof had the gall to ask us to explain the import of LIBOR - as one of 75 questions in a three hour exam.

Tom Stone wrote:

those low end properties don't make economic sense to me

If you have $40K you can put it in the bank for just about 0%.
If you put it in a condo, you can get $150. to $300. mo over the HOA & TI.
Until recently is wasn't about increasing in value, it was about yield.

HomeGnome wrote:

Can we sue someone?
Grade

It was a transactional, not litigation, class - so, no.

MBW wrote:

It was a transactional, not litigation, class - so, no.

Doc<

My lavender looked so incredibly awesome this spring and now they are getting burnt out by the 109F temps last week!

Prof is partner in a top 10 law firm. I actually liked him a lot -- before that exam.

MBW wrote:

I actually liked him a lot -- before that exam.

heartless buggers aren't they ?

josap wrote:

those low end properties don't make economic sense to me

If you have $40K you can put it in the bank for just about 0%.
If you put it in a condo, you can get $150. to $300. mo over the HOA & TI.
Until recently is wasn't about increasing in value, it was about yield.

Some of these people are chasing yield. They are betting on a very low interest rate for a very long time, and I don't like that risk at 200x-250x monthly rent. Down from twice that at the peak, but it's illiquid and the transaction costs are too high

Outsider wrote:

Another one bites the dust.

Re: "But the speed with which the public learned of his death and was informed of his burial seemed especially fast, according to some observers."

Why the big rush??

Explain the effects of Confucianism upon Chinese and Japanese Society

One of three essay questions.
Two hours.

Class 105.

Is that what buggering feels like?

If you have $40k you can put it in the bank for just about 0%
If you put it in a condo, you can get $150 to 300. mo

If you put $40k in the bank you can get $40k back.

1 currency now -yogi wrote:

Rajesh wrote:

it broke no laws

That doesn't mean that contracts tied to LIBOR are enforceable in a court of law (or "equity") anywhere in the world.

and torts is as promising a field as contracts for civil litigation -- and a lot easier to get punitives. (See, see, I have been studying today!)

To enjoy the legal (governmental) protections that corporate status bestows, a corporation must be located in the appropriate jurisdiction. The interstate commerce clause and other US constitutional law applies to interstate commerce, not international commerce.

Most likely AIG and the others you cite had affiliates registered in the UK or elsewhere. Not that you can sue one arm to attach the assets of another so easily...

I thought we weren't going to talk about tsunamis, what with me sending off my family to their on the Maine coast and all.

poic wrote:

Pragmatic, big daddy law-abiding.....,

Give him an A !

Tom Stone wrote:

They are betting on a very low interest rate for a very long time

Most of the people I see buying rentals are in their 50s & 60s. They are looking for semi-reliable cash flow to retire on. They got nailed by the dot com & stock crash. They want something they can touch and have some control over. They buy 5 to 10 units, sometimes more. They will have an income to retire on or sell if that makes more sense down the road.

Maybe the really low end isn't the best example. Most rents are in the $900. to $1100. range for an ok 3/2 no pool. Tax & insure no more than $150. mo here. If you have 5 and figure a fairly stable income from 4 rented, covering maint etc...... leaves you about $3K per mo.

josap wrote:

leaves you about $3K per mo.

Does your area have the jobs to support that rental capacity?

Anonymous Bosch wrote:

You sure it isn't a derecho of old people?

It's worse, it's a golf course community and the pool is full of little kids...

HomeGnome wrote:

Does your area have the jobs to support that rental capacity?

Estate sales auctioneers.

HomeGnome wrote:

Do your area have the jobs to support that rental capacity?

Yes. Two adults with full time jobs can cover $900 to $1100. The no pool is important due to utiltiy costs for the tenants and maint costs for the owner. A pool that goes belly up can cost $3K+

Well, let the good times roll then.
YouTube - The Cars- Let The Good Times Roll Lyrics 

1 currency now -yogi wrote:

It's not a "federal" committee, not "open" in the slightest, not a true "market" by any stretch...discuss amongst yourselves...

Nice bit of plagiarism to add to your resume. How many times did you need to hear this from me before it penetrated your skull?

Comment by Rob Dawg from thread 'FOMC Statement:: Economy expanding "moderately", Global growth slowing'

1 currency now -yogi wrote:

skk wrote:

No link - yet.

Hard to prove a negative. I don't know how criminal fraud/con game law operates in the UK.

What's to stop criminal/civil proceeding in the US? Quite possible that US laws were broken/bent, and Barclays has a US branch.

poic wrote:

And all this time I thought you'd been hanging around in my garden

How do you think I came to know this information, brah?

You pompous ass, you probably wrote the Bible...

Bubblisimo<

Whatcha having?

? ? ?

Only 11 hours until the live ceremony

CERN Webcast | Home

josap wrote

A pool that goes belly up can cost $3K+

If not on the phone I'd post the pool that a home I see is allegedly on a short sale with. Yes it's inground and it looks like paradise!

(IOW it needs to be filled in)

What's a pool?

Rajesh wrote

Where is the outrage about things that matter rather than the trivial pursuit that the media feeds us?

When each affiliate can report on their "tent city" without repercussions...

A hole you throw money into, Captain.

MBW wrote:

What's to stop criminal/civil proceeding in the US? Quite possible that US laws were broken/bent, and Barclays has a US branch.

people are bandying about the Sherman Act ..

As part of the agreement with the Department of Justice, Barclays has admitted and accepted responsibility for its misconduct set forth in a statement of facts that is incorporated into the agreement. According to the agreement, Barclays provided LIBOR and EURIBOR submissions that, at various times, were false because they improperly took into account the trading positions of its derivative traders, or reputational concerns about negative media attention relating to its LIBOR submissions. The Justice Department’s criminal investigation into the manipulation of LIBOR and EURIBOR by other financial institutions and individuals is ongoing. The agreement requires Barclays to continue cooperating with the department in its ongoing investigation.

USDOJ: Barclays Bank PLC Admits Misconduct Related to Submissions for the London Interbank Offered Rate and the Euro Interbank Offered Rate and Agrees to Pay $160 Million Penalty

You'd think Rajesh with all his up-to-date data on things financial would know this no ? and of course what the Fraud Squad in the UK are doing..

so I ask.. my buddy edp style.. "You xxx. Why do you xxx " .. no no .. its July3rd let it be..

LOL... FOMC was classic Dawg

Have another everybody, can't we all just get a loan? ( ht JD)

Rob Dawg probably created the SNL Mike Meyers character and wrote the "verklimpt" sketches.

A hole you throw money into, Captain.

I thought that was a mine or an oil well

HomeGnome wrote:

Rocky Road, I presume?

Vanilla with chocolate syrup.

Sounds good.

WeatherMonkey is saying 102F here tomorrow.

Rob Dawg + Yogi = Monkeys humping a greased football

I'm sure if you were in the Serious Fraud Office, you would have heard "The Public is paying attention; Look busy!"

How many bankers have been charged for any of the actions before the financial crisis? "Ooops, we lost a few trillion pounds, silly of us. Better luck next time, old chum."

If a trillion pounds isn't serious, what does it take?

Anonymous Bosch wrote:

What's a pool?

Sort of like a boat.
$120. mo pool service.
Pumps go bad.
Filters need replaced.
Gaskets leak.
Plaster that needs repaired.

My basic theory - if it works it will break.

Oh, I get it now. You stole the material from some google-remote source and so you attack to provide cover. Keep it, asshole, it isn't that clever...

Just how long did that flagg take dawg?

Comrade Troyski wrote:

either one understands what this graph is saying, or not

I'm a bit thick. What's FYGFD?

Jokes and schticks are tricky. Stupid Ed Koch took SNL to court for an "I Love NY" song parody. Of course he lost, but he didn't have to pay fees out of his own pocket...

josap wrote:

But the rent is about $2K per mo.

Is the water bill included?

HomeGnome wrote:

Is the water bill included?

No.
Unless the pool gets really bad and needs to be drained and refilled. The owner pays the overage to fill the pool.

and of course there's the old textbook case: PETA vs. PETA.com (People Eating Tasty Animals)

Anonymous Bosch wrote:

$2K/mo boggles AB's wee brain.

Mine too.
My first mortgage was $190. PITI
Mortgage now $350. PITI

HomeGnome wrote:

Yeah, but you haven't lived on the Albatross yet, Captain.

Oddly enough, HG, when she finally hits the water, my monthly costs will go down.

[edit for typo]

Anonymous Bosch wrote:

Does the pool pay for itself in rental pricing?

If you rent it for octogenarian porn productions.

Bubblisimo Gerkinov wrote:

If you rent it for octogenarian porn productions.

Come on man.
I'm going to try to sleep soon.
:mind bleach:

HomeGnome wrote:

:mind bleach:

Yep. Now I'll be up all night.

HomeGnome wrote:

Come on man.
I'm going to try to sleep soon.

Hey ... it's Phoenix.

HomeGnome wrote:

I assume then you are renting her dry dock, Captain?

Join the yacht club. $1K/yr. Divide by 12. ? Have to take my socks for the math, but I think it'll be less than the $300/mo I'm paying now. Plus there's a bar onsite and they haul the boat for winter... unless you're a frostbiter... which is my preferred time to sail.

HomeGnome wrote:

Get your balls wet, I say.

That's what cove skirts are supposed to be for.

YouTube - jane's addiction 1%

RATM wrote:

Nude carjacking spree in AZ

The heat probably got to him.
You can only take 113 day after day after day for so long.

We are getting some cooler weather. 95 on the 4th, then 100 then to just 106. The worst part is over.

No faces eaten so Fla can stay no 1 weirdl

josap wrote:

Have to wait until August.
Lots of people go nuts by then.

Sort of the opposite of Alaska's cabin fever toward the end of winter.

josap wrote:

We are getting some cooler weather. 95 on the 4th, then 100 then to just 106. The worst part is over.

There's a heat wave coming our way. Weather Headlines - weather.com
76° Sat, 77° Sunday! Hollywood Bowl Friday. Bringing out the big screen. | Hollywood Bowl Should be great. Then off to the hot interior. Saturday off to Yellowstone.

Anonymous Bosch wrote:

Sort of the opposite of Alaska's cabin fever

Really sort of the same. You don't go outside if you can help it in 115F.
Stay in the house. Get sick of everyone in the house.
Heat and sun, heat & sun. Lows in the 90s. Too hot even at night.
No rain, for months. Dust and no rain. No clouds, just the damn sun. Bright sun.

lawyerliz wrote:

No faces eaten so Fla can stay no 1 weirdl

Fla faces are soft & chewy due to the humidity, whereas Az's would be tough and leathery from that dry heat. Josap excepted of course... I'm sure she has a yummy face.

I love how-to vids. This is so cool. I'm going to try it for the kielbasa on the grill tomorrow.

CHOW Hot Dog Tip: Why You Should Spiral Cut Your Weiner (VIDEO)

josap wrote:

Heat and sun, heat & sun. Lows in the 90s. Too hot even at night.
No rain, for months. Dust and no rain. No clouds, just the damn sun. Bright sun.

Sounds like paradise. No wonder everyone's flocking there.

Rob Dawg wrote:

That's what cove skirts

1. HG wears a skirt ?

Cove ! Reminds me of Greyfriars School - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia 

Tis true, sad to say, that when I point out the similarities between that and Harry Potter amongst family and friends ( or rather I DID till I learnt to STFU _ - mannn its as if I called J.K. Rowling a plagiarist.. - guys guys.. would I do that ? everybody stands on the shoulders of the giants - what's the big deal with acknowledging the debt heh ?

But no, its as if I've the Virgin Mary a whore, called Diana a harpie, called..

Anonymous Bosch wrote:

No wonder everyone's flocking there.

Winter is great. We have "snow birds".
Others vacation here in the winter.

Some move here, but leave when they can't take the heat.
Great for arthrtis.

There are cool mountains about 2 hours away.

Call the Waaaaaaaambulance!

China HSBC at 52.3 June.
Down from 54.7

Well, by my clock it is the 4th of July.
Whoopdee do.

Rob Dawg wrote:

Spray skirt and booties no doubt.

Is that a baad thing?

Whoopdee do too. Only ten days now until the real celebration starts. Vive la France!

Anonymous Bosch wrote:

Whoopdee do too. Only ten days now until the real celebration starts. Vive la France!

Storm Brussels?

YouTube - Charles Ives - 4th of July

There are cool mountains about 2 hours away.

A while back on Househunters there was a couple who lived in Houston buying a vacation home in Sedona. I thought that was kind of weird..going from hot and humid to hot and dusty.

ResistanceIsFeudal wrote:

possibly had improper preception or false memory of history!

the reeducation progroms should have resolved that issue.

ResistanceIsFeudal wrote:

Since 1776. Check SOPApedia if you have doubts or have possibly had improper preception or false memory of history!

We are not suppost to have a History. We are one world and have no simallar past, just a " One for All " Future.