Case Shiller: House Prices increased in April
Submitted by
CalculatedRisk on Tue, 06/26/2012 - 6:19am (272 comments)
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U.S. futures higher ahead of confidence data - Indications - MarketWatch
Ben Bernake as Peter Griffin
umop apisdn wrote:
4F
That little wiggle at the end is the current blip up.
Rather stunning on the big graphs.
Thanks for the work, CR.
I don't think this matters until we get past about a 10% rise in prices off the bottom.
Someday this war's gonna end...
While there are numerous signs now of some strength in various measures of housing sales and prices, the question remains as to whether a "sustainable" bottom is being reached or whether this is some transitory activity that will give way to lower prices. I believe the latter to be the case, unfortunately.
For those interested, I summarized the June 2012 Zillow Home Price Expectations Survey, which compiles the multi-year home price forecasts of 100+ forecasters, as well as summarized my thoughts on the housing market, at my blog post here:
EconomicGreenfield: Zillow June 2012 Home Price Expectations Survey – Summary & Comments
Isnt y/o/y what really matters?
Nice job by CR raising the question on when C-S would go positive YoY, then it happening.
OT:
Cyprus needs a bailout?
Howzabout they tax the Russian money floating in their banks?
Cinco-X wrote:
At least it wasn't F-
Ted Kavadas wrote:
Naturally.....
dr munch wrote:
YU H8Z 'Merica?
Commence the angry emails!
Well they are one year late but:
CHART OF THE DAY: April Case-Shiller Housing Report - Business Insider
Good news travels slowly.
CHART OF THE DAY: April Case-Shiller Housing Report - Business Insider
...or at least we've approached the last few stairs....
JP wrote:
Court Ruling Fuels Fear Among Hispanics in Arizona - Bloomberg
They need shirts to go with their
.
Home value increases are a precursor to Higher rates going forward...make note of it if your looking to Refi your loan.
This paves the way for them to stop the POTUS if he goes there to campaign. I can picture the birthers cheering in the streets now. This will be teh awesome!
House prices increasing, inventory supposedly shrinking (in some areas), yet the official UE rate is still 8% and Europe is headed off the cliff...
I'm surprised that CR didn't describe this as a solid report......
Jello is a solid
KarmaPolice, that was nice of him to mention me.
We won't know if prices have bottomed for at least a year - and maybe longer. Although I think these repeat sales indexes have bottomed, I don't expect much of an increase.
I'll have to revisit my August / September prediction on when these indexes will turn positive YoY. This was a little stronger than I expected.
best to all
shill wrote:
Careful ... you'll reignite the 'glass is a liquid' debate.
Noted ( Ducks )
+20. Wow, what a rebound.
Phoenix is rising from the ashes, Detroit continues to stagger.
Case-Shiller House Prices: +0.67% And Every City Rose Except Detroit « Confounded Interest
Increasing house prices will lead to increasing income for the buyers, who then will be able to afford the increasing prices. My logic is undeniable.
Uh, yeah, right.
The Fed told you through 2014 already.
And you don't believe them?
Plenty of time, if you just ignore the panics.
Someday this war's gonna end...
Outsider wrote:
Fortunately, oil is still trending downwards. As for the rest of the trading...
.
Risk on! :clap: :clap:
won't last
remodel index showing up here
And I quote 6/25/2012
"Lacker now sees first Fed hike late 2013"
I've been speculating that something could be "going on behind the scenes" with the buck because of the way the Bernanke has been at odds with Kruggles lately.
Now it seems like Biderman thinks the same thing. He almost sounds like he has information the rest of us don't:
Black Swan Stalking Bernanke Put
Bubblisimo Gerkinov wrote:
Not intact, within reason. They're only allowed the amount of time to check that they would normally have if it was a routine stop. IOW, if I get a ticket for jaywalking on a Saturday night and the ICE network is down for maintenance, they can't keep me until the servers are back up on Monday even if I can't speak a lick of English and a wallet full of pesos. If they pull me over for speeding they have as much time as it takes to run the plates.
It's pretty nuanced and makes it a lot easier to see in the application of law whether it's being abused(ie driving while Brown) or not. These are the kind of rulings that one should expect from the Court.
Phoenix has solid gains.
Over the next few reports CS will show more price increases here.
I think prices are getting stable now, not much more up side left after this summer.
Stable would be nice.
Comrade Alexei Mikhailovich wrote:
h/t KP ( Ye gods, did I just write that?!
)
Black Swan Stalking Bernanke Put
"The end could come sometime this year or no later than the end of 2013"
As a continuation of my economics education public service announcements, I am pleased to offer you this tidbit: FT Alphaville » On price stability during an ‘abundance shock’
Enjoy
Also just to piss you all off. This month has been full of perfect California weather. Not hot not cold just right. That said, stay away! The Crime! The Corruption! It is not safe to live here. However if you are forced to come, bring lots of money.
josap wrote:
Are all the bulk and investment purchases showing up in the rental market and are they renting and cash flowing?
Who said Roubini has no sense of humor? He just tweeted this cartoon.
https://twitter.com/Nouriel/status/217615035374120961
Comrade Kristina wrote:
The cartoon does make a point. Why would anyone want to have Greece as a "roommate"?
Detroit : A big step back for the Motor City as prices reversed 3.6% in April. Compared to April 2011, prices are up 1.2%. Compared to 2000, prices have collapsed by about 35%.
Rob Dawg wrote:
The listed rental are way up on MLS. The asking rents are at market so far. I'm not seeing the increase undercut the small investors - yet. Don't see how they couldn't cash flow. The bulk sales would have been at a very attractive price. Unless I do some heavy digging I won't know who bought or exactly how many. So far I have heard numbers in the 3000 to 3500 range.One month supply of rentals here is about 2500 or so.
The "roommate" owes you big bucks?
Just to be obnoxious and be on topic for once, I would like CR to offer up a list of the things that caused the "bend in the curve" starting in 09. All the government actions taken to stop the free fall are getting lost in the mists of memory.
Citizen AllenM wrote:
The Fed tells you lots of things. I don't expect to see a rise before 2020, and if were to bet, not before 2040.
Outsider wrote:
Only after you let 'em in. Some times you gotta cut your losses, yo
Bankers don't like to cut losses.
Outsider wrote:
They just blow up economies. Yeah, I know.
.
Bankers are the Chuck Norris of the real world.
Outsider wrote:
If someone else was on the hook for it, you'd let it ride, too.
josap wrote:
Thanks, excellent boots on the ground.
I want my
!!
//pounds fork and knife on table at back of :short rider: bus.
poic wrote:
Back off, yo. You already got your monthly allowance of
. You must be a DINO: Doomer In Name Only
Consumer-confidence gauge declines to 62 in June
Phoenix, Miami up. San Diego not yet up. Soon. Two of the three swans that signaled the downturn appear to have bottomed.
If the world is living beyond its means, printing currency to pay bills just about everywhere, then maybe there's a problem with means of exchange to begin with.
poic wrote:
Sorry poic.
Things never "always" go down, just like they never "always" go up.
poic wrote:
You'll get your perpetually appreciating
and permanent FIRE overclass, and you'll like it!
Well, just imagine how mad some small investor is going to be when he finds out that two houses within a block are owned by the investor group- who needs a return, period. I suspect we will see predatory pricing, low entry fees, and remote management. All things that will rapidly degrade the value of the properties and degrade teh rental market.
Glad I don't have any in this market- it will be difficult in a couple of years without a low basis to compete.
Someday this war's gonna end...
yagij wrote:
+1000
"You must be a DINO: Doomer In Name Only"
Not when I'm watching my SRS.
Then it's DEAD : Doom Everywhere All Day
San Diego : Prices rose 1.4% to take the year-on-year fall to 1.8%.
When they told you: get SRS, then weren't talking about the stock.
Outsider wrote:
Inventory down 60% in the east bay according to Greg Fielding, nice chart at "Bay Area Real Estate Trends".
poic wrote:
Lamenting your SRS in 2012 is like lamenting over roadkill
. It's dead, poic.
It is time to let it go and move on with your life.
Outsider wrote:
when the means of exchange is based on fairy dust, then I'd say yes there just might be a problem.
Citizen AllenM wrote:
I'm watching pretty close. The bulk purchases could / will effect my clients.
So far I don't see any panic rent prices. The tell will be after school starts and the weather cools.
"When they told you: get SRS, then weren't talking about the stock."
They also never told me that it's goes down all day, every day.
Perfect
holding
Now there's a meme w/ legs sunny side up lol, and etcetera
when the means of exchange is based on fairy dust, then I'd say yes there just might be a problem.
Any currency is basically intrinsic value - even
.
"It is time to let it go and move on with your life."
It's part of my personal
yo 
I've been seeing ads on craigslist where investors are advertising for scouts and property maintenance/rehab/management.
Citizen AllenM wrote:
That was implied in josap's "yet." I cannot imagine the pooled purchases are patient money. I can also see a potential backlash against absent ownership when things degrade as you expertly describe. And just wait until the first meth contamination blows away two quarters of profit or the grow-up house gets seized.
poic wrote:
.
BTW, I loved the "hassle of laowai" in the podcast last night.
Uh-huh
poic wrote:
Join
ster Anonymous, where we learn to stop worrying and love the Bernanke.
Doom fix:
SPANISH GOVERNMENT GENERIC BONDS - 10 YR NOTE Chart - GSPG10YR - Bloomberg
Feel better?
The Bernanke Bomb?
You listened to This American Life? Did you enjoy it? I found it very interesting.
Rob Dawg wrote:
Wake me back up at 7.
poic asked:
I did. Twice.
.
I enjoyed it, and the ex-pats' views and commentary about China--from the inside--matched my own view about China. I was wondering if someone was going to ask about "going native", but they never really got to that issue directly.
BTW, I loved the "hassle of laowai" in the podcast last night. Laughing out loud
Wha, I claim the rights to the story in the name of King Isabella! Paging furiously through the archives . . . .
Citizen AllenM wrote:
Outsider wrote:
the Fed balance sheet went from $800 B in 2007 to around $2.8T currently, can you explain the increase in intrinsic value that justified this?
Outsider wrote:
More like Soma.
The Fed Funds rate has always been 0-.25%. And we've always been at war with Eurasia.
Rob Dawg wrote:
If they set up the projections right they can be patient.
Vacancy instead of decreased rents for cash flow projections.
If you flood the market you drop rents by $100 or so a month. So figure a higher vacancy for a year to be offset by higher rents.
Would be the smart way. And in the end you will have the higher cash flow.
Anak wrote:
No, the speaker was saying that all foreigners know what you call a pack of laowai:
Murder of crows
School of fish
Hassle of laowai
No they did not! Or well, maybe they did. But look at the graph, and think about when these closed, and what the mentality was.....that was when the huge housing bottom pump started. So yeh, we got a bunch of fools boosting prices, or hitting the ridiculous ask prices on market. It's not going to last.
the Fed balance sheet went from $800 B in 2007 to around $2.8T currently, can you explain the increase in intrinsic value that justified this?
But that's my point - if this is happening all over, then supply and demand are out of kilter. Money available is not keeping up with expenditures. How do you fix that?
josap wrote:
Wow. Really? You start off the argument with using the "p" word?
.
Investor Group in 2012 does not have "patience"
I cannot imagine the pooled purchases are patient money.
sooo, safe to say they won't tolerate squatters ...
heh heh
ac wrote:
To me it sounded more like a fortune teller's parlor trick...he could very well have picked up a lot of the minor details from reading HCN and just dressed it up to sound like new insights...
Detroit....told ja!
Detroit on road to recovery? - Video on msnbc.com
may i have one very large can kick ... to go ...
...
Leaders in both chambers are discussing whether to propose a catch-all bill that would delay the automatic cuts, fund the government through March or later and temporarily extend the George W. Bush-era tax cuts and other tax laws, said the House aide and industry officials, who asked to speak on condition of anonymity.
“It is being seriously considered as one of the options and there is no doubt about that,” Steve Bell, the senior director of the Economic Policy Project at the Bipartisan Policy Center, said in an interview.
Congress Said to Delay Automatic Budget Cuts Until March - Bloomberg
black dog wrote:
I can Xe some potential social problems here, but at this point it's all Academi-c
yagij wrote:
That would be just about this time tomorrow at the last two days trend. +14bps to 6.77.
dilbert dogbert wrote:
Virtually all of the government actions came either right before or after most of the damage was already done (the "bend in the curve"). For example, QE1 was announced in November, 2008, nearly a year after the start of the recession. QE1 was expanded one quarter before the recession trough, and by the time QE2 was announced the economy was expanding again.
The home-buyer tax credit wasn't announced (IIRC) until 2009. Cash for clunkers was from 2009, too, after the recession trough.
Sebastian
Dating crises: The cruelest month of the cruelest year | The Economist
yagij wrote:
Really.
They will hold the houses for 2 to 3 years. Maybe up to 5 years.
The higher rents, starting higher will get you more income over the term of holding.
And when you sell the value will be higher as an income property.
You need to think of how it cash flows over the longer term and the higher resale value.
These guys can think past lunch if they want to.
Increased spending plus tax cuts.
I love when the
and 
come together in a spirit of true bipartisanship.
Outsider wrote:
maybe I'm misunderstanding your point. I think money/credit was made available at costs that did not reflect real risk and led to speculative excess and prices. The fix is to tie money and credit more closely to real factors of production and the physical world.
4 Catalysts to Spark an S&P 500 Rally to 1,500 | Breakout - Yahoo! Finance
politico.com -
BIG IDEA I: ECONOMY STINKS - Goldman Sachs’ economics team in a research note: “Our view that the US economy continues to stagnate was reinforced by the Fed’s Summary of Economic Projections ... Our outlook for modest 2012 earnings growth was reinforced by the dozen S&P 500 companies across six different sectors that lowered earnings guidance between 2% and 20% during the past 10 days. ...
“The election is slightly more than four months away and the ‘fiscal cliff’ occurs roughly two months later. Uncertainty will only rise as Election Day approaches ... In Europe, the June 28-29 EU summit may prolong the uncertainty. We do not expect the summit to produce progress on governance needed to create a more stable Euro area. Past missteps may also reduce the credibility of expected announcements such as a growth compact or banking union”
Citizen AllenM wrote:
On top of that is the rent has to include overhead to do broad remote management. The costs start eating into the business plan.
Take this one step further, can we assume that forclosure->rentals were paid with cash AND THEN leveraged based on future cash flows? IMHO we're in the early stages where the units look good and sort of cash flow. Later on the expenses will ruin the business model, few renters able to afford the units due to industrial and wage policy. Bottom line for me is this is the next RE bubble. Lots of money to be made on the pump because the units are temporarily cashflow positive. Too bad there's no way I can qualify to get in on the action.
Lots of fugly rental neighborhoods coming and the capitalists will shout "not my problem!" CR's neighborhood will look great though.
The fix is to tie money and credit more closely to real factors of production and the physical world.
Intrinsic was a poor word choice on my end. I meant arbitrary.
So how do you tie money & credit to physical reality? Curtail credit?
I want my Doooooooom!!
Here, try this to keep you going while we wait for the emergency responders to get here with a real crisis. Credit Writedowns - Finance, Economics, and Markets
Sebastian wrote:
But But But! The government is the problem so how could those things helped? They should have made things worse!
josap wrote:
And they'll be cultivating a ready pool of potential buyers. If they can get past the initial start up issues this looks like a winning strategy for a recovery or even bounce along the bottom. The start up expenses will be key. How soon to get rented, repair expenses, do they have affordable management in place?
A lot of these investment pools have lock-up periods. My guess is investors won't be able to start pulling money out for a number of years......
poic wrote:
Another Obama-style compromise!
No, the speaker was saying that all foreigners know what you call a pack of laowai
Oh. Lesson Already.
One of the challenges of learning spoken Chinese is to get accustomed to the "measure words" that make units for flat things, long things, pill-liike things. We have them too, like "loaf" "cup" or "stick".
Or Tranche
im rich
intimidated but rich nonetheless
Too bad there's no way I can qualify to get in on the action.
no doubt the prices paid by bulk investors would make the small investor cry ... before crying from the coming rental price undercut ...
josap wrote:
Who will pay those rents? Industrial and labor policy is not set up for lots of people renting houses as single family dwellings. Maybe two or three familys/generations, but then inflation alone crushes the yield on the investment within 5 years. IMHO, those 5 years of returns set up the next stage of the bubble where "you too can be an investor in the hot housing rental market!!!" RE prices spike based on leverage, again.
Bubble. Bubble. Bubble.
Nooooo. Shocked I tell you, simply shocked!
Widening sex scandal rocks Texas Air Force base - US news - msnbc.com
I suspect a lot of these investors don't have a clue as to what a fuggin pain in the ass owning real estate rentals is. And even if home prices increase, the cost to exit will take a nice dent out of that appreciation.
GDD9000 wrote:
I think it is for two reasons.
The American Dream Is Now a Myth: Joseph Stiglitz - Yahoo! Finance
According to Stiglitz, regulations, particularly those governing the financial sector are contributing to the disparities.
"Financial regulations allow predatory lending and abusive credit-card practices that transfer money from the bottom to the top. So do bankruptcy laws that provide priority for derivatives," he said.
Stiglitz argues that Americans were increasingly being made to think that higher income inequality was a byproduct of faster growth, but he says that's a false choice. The U.S. economy grew faster in the decades after the Second World War, when inequalities were lower, than it did after 1980, he said.
"Textbooks teach us that we can have a more egalitarian society only if we give up growth or efficiency," he said. "However, closer analysis shows that we are paying a high price for inequality: it contributes to social, economic and political instability, and to lower growth."
dirty_juheesus wrote:
the Nazi was once a runway model in Frankfort
Duke knows lots of models
they all look good for awhile
Well the positive Dallas Fed number got its own post yesterday.
Let's see if the negative Richmond Fed number gets its own post today.
That was a solid consumer confidence report and Richmond Fed report.
"Let's see if the negative Richmond Fed number gets its own post today."
We want our
:bangs fork and knife: on
table.
Lurking Lawyer wrote:
"Wall Street clerks subcontract the placing of $100 billion bets to the judgment of computer databanks that stand as silent as the stones on Easter Island, while calculating at the speed of light the rates of exchange between the known unknowns and the unknown unknowns. By way of projecting a federal budget deficit into both the near and distant future, the season’s presidential candidates float cloud-capped towers of imaginary numbers destined to leave not a rack behind.
The American body politic meanwhile dissolves into impoverished constituencies of one, stripped of “profit and delight” in the realm of fact, but still sovereign in the land of make-believe. Every once and future king is possessed of a screen like the enchanted mirror that Lady Galadriel shows to Frodo Baggins in the garden at Caras Galadhon; the lost and wounded self adrift in a sea of troubles but equipped with the remote control that once was Prospero’s; blessed, as was the tragical Doctor Faustus, with instant access to the dreams “of power, of honor, of omnipotence.”"
-Lewis H. Lapham
Lurking Lawyer wrote:
Richmond fell to -3 from +4 on expectations of +2
Rob Dawg wrote:
Have you ever bought a rental car? Well, on second thought, these aren't homes anymore they are trading houses.
Feel the love:
AIDS in the pews: Son's secret divides Southern Baptist minister and his church - U.S. News
Like I said, solid. Now if it had dropped to -2, I'd call it very solid.
dirty_juheesus wrote:
Ding, ding, ding! And what happens once something gets financialized? That's right, HFT.
And wait for the "fluffing." Bring in sketchy renters at $3000/mo (first six months free) and show the cash flow statements reflecting the $3000/mo/unit. Investment tip: go long Kilz paint products.
dirty_juheesus wrote:
Yeah, but
if, by solid, you mean it made a THUD when it landed, then yes, solid
solid CC report? You mean a solid four months of steady decline? Yeh, rock solid.
What's that my precious? Are you saying something? Stop whispering.
dirty_juheesus wrote:
We have a very high foreclosure rate here. Those poeple rent. They were in a house and they wanat a house. SFR rentals are the easiest here. SFR rents are in the $900 to $1200 range for a 3/2 / 2G depending on location.
After 2 to 3 years of on time rental payments and if other credit is ok, those renters can buy again. So you just slip them into a buyer position, at the appriciated value. The renters like the house they are in, know what it needs or doesn't as far as maint. What things have been repaired / replaced and when. They don't have to move, look etc.
This will work.
Here's more on the Richmond Fed numbers (I stole it from KD's site):
Lurking Lawyer wrote:
The cost to exit should be cheaper if they set it up to pay a lower comm to the co that does the management. Normal thing here. And if they run all the escrows through the same title co they will get a big discount there as well.
"lost seven points to -3 from May’s reading of 4. Among the index’s components, shipments declined two points to -2, new orders dropped thirteen points to end at -12, and the jobs index moved down eight points to 8."
So other than that, it's looking good?
SPANISH GOVERNMENT GENERIC BONDS - 10 YR NOTE
GSPG10YR:IND 6.84300 +0.20600 +3.10%
Rob Dawg wrote:
Ok, that's enough for now. Back in the Skinner box!
and in further news that up is down, in refutation of Ed Yardeni's take on M-2, and even tho Ben is running out of bullets for Operation Twist, here's the latest take by the St Louis Fed on M-2 thru June 11th:
M2 Money Stock (M2) - FRED - St. Louis Fed
1.3% increase month to month, as an average of 3 months, but still down 2% form a year ago. Can we really call this a recovery though? Rates a year ago were higher, so by a simple affordability ratio prices should be higher. Meanwhile, prices YOY are down, but rates a year ago were even lower.
I'll buy that housing may be at a bottom, but it's a rough bottom, and it's nowhere near turn around territory.
This news will encourage people who want to sell but are waiting for a better market to start listing their homes, and in turn put downward pressure on prices again.
I'm guessing probably 3% for the property management fee, and assume a 3% commission on sales (although some buyer brokers may balk at taking only 1.5%). Transfer taxes (payable in my jurisdiction), title insurance (tough to get a discount absent getting a reissue discount), all add up.
Also, assume that the property management company will be an affiliate of the general partner of the fund.
Not saying that it can't be profitable (it can), but the margins are necessarily through the roof.
Rob Dawg wrote:
This is where I lament the fact I don't have enough money to play this game. CR's buddies probably do and it will work for a little while. Money to be made pumping the bubble up for sure.
It's pretty sad this is a 'normal' conversation.
That's a solid yield.
Lots of solid stuff today.
adornosghost wrote:
A veritable hurricane of mixed metaphors.
Big Brother internet: Obama ‘truth team’ orders GoDaddy to shut down website | Hang The Bankers | He Who Controls the Money Supply, Controls the World
the truth will get you fee
pavel.chichikov wrote:
Defiantly not Hemingway.
dirty_juheesus wrote:
If you act like a zombie maybe the other zombies won't notice and try to eat you.
tg wrote:
"We have a liquids fuel problem, not an energy problem. And worldwide there is 50 to 100 trillion dollars worth of liquid powered capital equipment in use. That will not be replaced with equipment powered by hydrogen, coal to liquids, natural gas or renewables any way soon."
Who's Propping Up the U.S. Treasury Market? - TheStreet
Lurking Lawyer wrote:
I can only speak about Az.
Management 5%, which is a discount from the usual 8% to 10%.
3% sales comm. Kept in house for selling to the tenants with a first offer of sale. No MLS, no split with another brokerage. My guess is 30% of the tenants buy at that point. The balance listed on MLS with a 5% comm total, split 3% selling and 2% listing.No transfer tax in Az. Title co will give a large discount if you are running several hundred properties though them a month for a few years.
richmond service sector survey went from -2 to +9 -
Service sector revenues moved moderately higher in June, according to the latest survey by the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond. Revenues accelerated at non-retail services firms and big-ticket sales posted solid gains at retail establishments. However, overall retail sales remained anemic and inventories rose as shopper traffic declined. Retailers downgraded their outlook for the rest of 2012, while non-retail services providers remained upbeat.
In service sector labor markets, hiring softened overall, weighed down by weakness in retail hiring. Average wage growth strengthened.
The overall rate of price change slowed somewhat in June, as acceleration in retail price increases was overshadowed by slower non-retail price growth since May. Survey respondents anticipated that the pace of price change would pick up in the six months ahead
Fifth District Survey of Service Sector Activity - Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond
Outsider wrote:
This is something I think about but do not have a nice coherent picture in my mind. In fuzzy terms it comes down to useful energy or facilitators of useful energy which is the common denominator of all non tulip-bulb economics.
km4 wrote:
USTs are a symptom. Bank solvency is the disease being treated.
There is simply no other viable theory for how this "lead zeppelin" continues to (supposedly) generate the highest prices in history for this thoroughly and obviously worthless paper.
another TBT holder getting schooled ... ha
Our resident hummingbird has been putting on quite a show this morning. Lots of vertical straight up zooms followed by high speed swoops down to near the ground. There has been some aerial combat with another hummer or what the resident hummer thinks is a hummer.
It has been working over the Pomegranate tree for the last week or so. I hope the efforts produce some fruit.
Rob Dawg wrote:
Yep, and they aren't well yet. Probably won't be well again in my life time.
josap wrote:
No, it won't.
-Right now, the business model pencils out and my estimation is the owners of the foreclosures are leveraging. The leverage will drive home valuations up, again, and crush the business model.
-A worker pays 900-1200/month on $2400/mo salary not including health care. They can't make a mortgage now, when their wages decline they REALLY can't make a mortgage! Now, if we agree that it's political policy to loan anyway, then that's a different story.
-You are assuming the investors will care for the house. When their business model is crushed by leverage among other things, the first thing to go is maintenance. The houses may look okay now, but that won't last.
I'm with Rob on this one. Add some sketchy financials and not only will leverage crush the business model, fools rushing in will accellerate it. Regretfully, I do not qualify as an investor in this scheme. Otherwise, I'd be in it right now while everything looks good as the hype is taking off.
So probably 6% costs to close (like I said, in my jurisdiction there are also transfer taxes).
That property management fee of 5% off of gross is pretty damn high.
I'm sure the shit all pencils out. These funds like to make money. However, I've seen to many real estate investments get blown up to feel confident that these are the cash cows investors think they are.
If they were horses they'd have been put down. We could have harvested the organs and created new
s
dirty_juheesus wrote:
Yes, but I have never washed a rental. The daughter just got rid of the 1990 Corolla rental I bought for her to use at college.
dilbert dogbert wrote:
The wrens that nest in a green porcelain jug on our front porch have raised we don't know how many broods this season. Loud twitters, churrs, they sound off all the time, work all the time. Little tan torpedoes, full of life, vitality.
dallas fed service sector survey -
Perceptions of broader economic conditions were mixed in June. The general business activity index edged up from 5.3 to 7.3 after falling for three consecutive months. The company outlook index posted its lowest reading in nine months, moving down to 2.6 from 8.5, with 20 percent of respondents reporting their outlooks improved from last month and 18 percent noting they worsened.
Texas Service Sector Outlook Survey - Dallas Fed
josap wrote:
Not as long as they continue to dissipate via record "profits", monster bonuses, dividends.
josap wrote:
Assuming these renters pay their rent, they will need special financing to buy, like no money down, 30 year loan @ a special interest rate that can be sold to the government agencies cuz what private entity in their right mind would want to keep it
Rob Dawg wrote:
http://lh5.ggpht.com/-dT2LYV5roL0/T-m_8BI3yuI/AAAAAAAAHFo/QzYHMAfARMk/image%25255B5%25255D.png?imgmax=800
so, we aren't necessarily receding but certainly stagnating?
dallas fed service survey -
Labor market indicators reflected slower labor demand growth and little change in the average workweek. The employment index fell from 11.1 to 7.8 in June, and the hours worked index dropped to 1 from 7.7.
adornosghost wrote:
I like pavel's definition better than the usual "Word Salad".
RockyR wrote:
Or bumping down, step by step?
Okay, I'm off to pick up the branches blown down by Debby and clean out the pool. If I have any energy after that I'll do my workout. Want to get done before it gets too hot. We are going from rain and wind to heat wave. Ugh.
arthur_dent wrote:
Allowing default is how credit is tied to reality.
dilbert dogbert wrote:
It was well stated.
black dog wrote:
Damn, I could have written this myself!
ciao.
Rob Dawg wrote:
It's certainly a balance sheet problem, but I'm not so certain it's limited to banks...
Yancey Ward wrote:
default is definitely an essential stabilizer in the current system but the poor definition of money makes the need for defaults all too common. Kind of like bailing is an essential part of a leaky boat.
pavel.chichikov wrote:
The next step down will be interesting.
dallas fed comment -
"Banks are out to carve every dollar they can out of small business, raising fees, audits, etc. Thank goodness for insurance companies that are stepping in to refinance real estate."
black dog wrote:
You don''t hear that sentiment very often...
t r orwell wrote:
Easily done.
Portion of rent is credited to purchase option (has to be a 3 years of rents), so 0 down. Maybe higher buyer escrow fees to offset sellers costs, would still be low entry costs. FHA loan at market rate or a bit higher.
At todays prices PITI is less than rent on the same house. No clue what that looks like in 3 to 5 years. Or interest rates.
arthur_dent wrote:
If you provide contact information we could discuss this offline...
celebrating winter solstice?
Wow...steep drop at 11:05AM...was that one stock?
Cinco-X wrote:
Poic went long.
Cinco-X wrote:
Looks like another bad day at the Dog Track.
josap wrote:
the key word there is FHA, but I just said that the Fed is running out of Operation Twist bullets to keep rates down
DC is still consistently green relative to '08, and well over 180. Funny how that works.
SPANISH GOVERNMENT GENERIC BONDS - 10 YR NOTE
GSPG10YR:IND 6.87200 +0.23500bps +3.54%
relentless.
t r orwell wrote:
I always mark the equinox and soltice points but for me we just passed summer solstice.
Looks like I'm too late with my "what did Eric buy" comment.
I don't know what
is thinking- he was supposed to stay home today.
On Orbitz, Mac Users Steered to Pricier Hotels - WSJ.com
arthur_dent wrote:
thought maybe u were in the southern hemisphere what with the coat and hat
greenchutes wrote:
Hard to believe with all that Obama Austerity.
"the key word there is FHA, but I just said that the Fed is running out of Operation Twist bullets to keep rates down"
Luckily Europe and Asia are doing well else we might have to worry about who was going to buy our USTs.
JPM EMPLOYEES BACKED CANTOR - POLITICO’s Jake Sherman and Anna Palmer: “Employees of JPMorgan Chase donated more than $45,000 to House Majority Leader Eric Cantor the same month their company disclosed that they lost more than $2 billion ... The influx of cash comes at the same time JPMorgan's political action committee cut-off its federal giving. The $45,250 Cantor netted from the financial institution represents roughly 15 percent of the overall amount raised by Every Republican Is Crucial, Cantor's main fundraising vehicle, which took in $285,500 in May” JPMorgan employees back Cantor PAC - POLITICO.com
Rob Dawg wrote:
How about a few Liberal Lies!?
Denver's 105°: hottest temperature in city history
The mercury soared to 105° in Denver, Colorado on Monday, tying the record for the hottest temperature ever measured in the city. The city also hit 105° on July 20, 2005 and August 8, 1878. Yesterday's 105° reading was the city's fourth consecutive day in the triple digit heat. The city's record streak of 100°+ days is five, set in 1989 and again in 2005. Denver's forecast today calls for highs of 100 - 104°, so the city will likely tie its all-time mark for consecutive 100°+ days.
In many respects, the extreme heat that has scorched Colorado since Saturday is the state's most intense heat wave in recorded history. According to wunderground's weather historian Christopher C. Burt, Saturday's 114° reading in Las Animas tied for the hottest temperature ever measured in the state of Colorado. Two other 114° readings have occurred in Colorado history: in Las Animas on July 1, 1933, and in Sedgwick on July 11, 1954. Colorado Springs tied its all-time record for warmest temperature ever measured on both Saturday and Sunday, with readings of 100°. The record heat in Colorado has exacerbated numerous destructive wildfires, and the Governor reported over the weekend that half of the nation's firefighting fleet has been deployed to Colorado. On Sunday, a wildfire that grew to more than 3 square miles near Colorado Springs drove 11,000 residents (2% of the city's population) out of their homes. In Fort Collins, the mercury hit 102° on Sunday, just 1° below the city's all-time hottest temperature of 103° set on Jul 21, 2005. The heat did no favors for firefighters struggling to the contain the massive 81,000 acre High Park fire fifteen miles northwest of Fort Collins. The fire is the second largest and most destructive wildfire in Colorado's history, and is 45% contained. La Junta, CO hit 110° on Sunday, tying its all-time hottest temperature record, set on June 28, 1990. Today is the last day of exceptional heat for Colorado, as the ridge of high pressure responsible slides to the east, bringing record-breaking heat to the Midwest instead.
relentless.
wonder what President Jenna Bush/Chelsea Clinton will do when it's our turn ...
poic wrote:
Unfortunately, Ben has bought 61% in the last year......As far as you personally, since you are doing so well managing that fund for averaging SRS, etc losses, why not splurge once in awhile and take the Mrs and her parents to Panda Express in the Bay area and impress the hell out of them for crying out loud
I ran our of
so can't do Panda Express anymore.
With mittens planning on jacking up defense spending another 15% or so, I'm pretty sure the area around Dulles should stay more congested and expensive than ever, regardless of outcome.
Any "CEO" who works for Fortune 500 companies who has a photo on his website of Obama with a hitler mustache is a retard. Godaddy has no legal obligation to continue hosting such nonsense.
black dog wrote:
I think a Tequila Twins Presidency would add to the Bush legacy.
yup, a subtlety lost on most - CS compares selling price to buying cost, not selling price to cost basis. Pretty easy to sell a house for $80K when it costs $50K and has $50K of improvements.
adornosghost wrote:
Obviously global warming. August 8, 1878.
Meanwhile; 72°/58° dayaferdayafetrday...
poic wrote:
Well, at least you have a sense of humor and can express yourself well
It's the argent provocateurs who ought to be wondering what's happening...
About this time last year,
was $48, while the precious was $1550
glimmerman wrote:
C-S claims to adjust for hedonics but there's no doubt they missed a lot on the way up thus inflating the apparent rise in prices.
"GERMANY'S MERKEL SAYS EUROPE WILL NOT HAVE SHARED LIABILITY FOR DEBT AS LONG AS SHE LIVES"
-ZH
Wonder if Merkel is about to fall ill?
greenchutes wrote:
Maybe Mitt could regain the halcyon days of Caspar Weinberger, when even if something cost $1.00, he took $2.00 worth.
Rob Dawg wrote:
You keep that up and I'm moving in with you for the summer.
Rob Dawg wrote:
It has been downright cool up here in the wine country.
Pretty easy to sell a house for $80K when it costs $50K and has $50K of improvements.
and mortgage settlement february (?) ... CS for april ... i doubt april saw any of increasing foreclosures that settlement will generate.
josap wrote:
Summer? What's that?
adornosghost wrote:
Fat lazy trout?
Rob Dawg wrote:
108F to 117F, dayafterdayafterday.......
So, we're camped a few hundred feet from the beach in Catalina @ Two Harbors and what pulls up and anchors down for the night a few hundred yards offshore?
http://www.schoonerman.com/Img18.jpg
Jackdawracy wrote:
Nice boat.
Room for a pony.
josap wrote:
68F presently... it was supposed to be hot as hell this week but so far we've lucked out.
C-S claims to adjust for hedonics
how? ... Through permits?
a LOT can be done without legally needing a permit ... and how much work done without permit when should have?
Rob Dawg wrote:
The season that follows Summer in Phoenix.
3m0 temp outlook NOAA
Rob Dawg wrote:
most of the US looks above normal for Jul-Sep except for a sliver of the Pacific coast.
ResistanceIsFeudal wrote:
56 here! But it is raining. We were supposed to melt as well.
Jackdawracy wrote:
Most likely "Hawaiian" Chieftain or "Lady Washington."
Damn auto-correct on my IBrick.
Rob Dawg wrote:
I've been bass fishing lately.
default is definitely an essential stabilizer in the current system but the poor definition of money makes the need for defaults all too common. Kind of like bailing is an essential part of a leaky boat.
That was my thinking too. I'm thinking the "fix" is on the credit side of the equation - quit handing it out like candy.
If we forgave every mortgage debt here, but continued to make lending cheap and easy, in no time we'd have another bubble/crash on our hands. Debt forgiveness only works if the central problem is fixed.
If I had a boat
I'd go out on the ocean
And if I had a pony
I'd ride him on my boat
And we could all together
Go out on the ocean
Me upon my pony on my boat
If I were roy rogers
I'd sure enough be single
I couldn't bring myself to marrying old dale
It'd just be me and trigger
We'd go riding through them movies
Then we'd buy a boat and on the sea we'd sail
And if I had a boat
I'd go out on the ocean
And if I had a pony
I'd ride him on my boat
And we could all together
Go out on the ocean
Me upon my pony on my boat
[ Lyrics from: If I Had A Boat Lyrics - Lyle Lovett ]
The mystery masked man was smart
He got himself a tonto
'cause tonto did the dirty work for free
But tonto he was smarter
And one day said kemo sabe
Kiss my ass I bought a boat
I'm going out to sea
And if I had a boat
I'd go out on the ocean
And if I had a pony
I'd ride him on my boat
And we could all together
Go out on the ocean
Me upon my pony on my boat
And if I were like lightning
I wouldn't need no sneakers
I'd come and go wherever I would please
And I'd scare 'em by the shade tree
And I'd scare 'em by the light pole
But I would not scare my pony on my boat out on the sea
And if I had a boat
I'd go out on the ocean
And if I had a pony
I'd ride him on my boat
And we could all together
Go out on the ocean
Me upon my pony on my boat
Lyle Lovett If I Had A Boat Lyrics
Merkel Says No European Shared Liability As Long As She Lives | ZeroHedge
Yancey Ward wrote:
So true.
Off to work with me.
Later.
Summer? What's that?
High of 67 today.
Cold-hot-cold-hot
Mother Nature's shock therapy, all else having failed, in kicking some sense into us, maybe.
Outsider wrote:
If you like to fish for the big ones in the Sierra, this is your year. The rivers are anemic and dropping down to levels you'd expect to see in August, and trout of size have nowhere to hide.
This summer is the one you'll hear tales of 25 to 30 inchers being caught in hidden away spots full of hungry customers...
Typically you'll never catch anything more than about a foot long in a normal summer~
I had my binoculars with me, and it was the Tole Mour.
Outsider wrote:
Not a chance. If we could, we'd see government-supported corporate monopolies hoard all the hot temperatures in a few select locations to the point it became blazingly hot and unlivable, and the rest of the world would freeze.
km4 wrote:
Cyprus bailout may equal half its economy - World news - Europe - msnbc.com
Lyle Lovett If I Had A Boat Lyrics
...
next time, could you hum a few bars?
"LIBOR, EURIBOT to EC: It's ON!"
Libor Guardians Said to Resist Changes to Broken Rate
< wipes tears >
"Min-owe-ans"?
Jackdawracy wrote:
That's the one that takes eighth graders on adventure field trips.
Britain extends credit-easing scheme to big firms
| Reuters
I'll join you Mary, here's a hankie.
YouTube - Broadcast Yourself.
...
an oldie but goodie of Angie Merkel speaking the forbidden tongue...
I went out to do the yard work and the weather had flipped back to tropical storm. Wind whipping and cloudy. I managed to clean up the front and side yards which were full of small limbs and branches but I think the pool cleaning will have to wait. Still too windy to not be a waste of time as the stuff blows back in as fast as i scoop. I'm about wore out from dragging all that stuff to the street.
Nanoo-Nanoo wrote:
Good thing it's cool in Vermont. Wouldn't want you to dehydrate yourself over all this baaad
These slimeballs piss me off.
Why are the Shat Hit The FAN states referred to as the 'sand states'?
One of my daughters was a bridesmaid out west this past weekend where the temp hit 105...good thing she is still relatively young and in good shape
It's not actually the sand, it's the water. Don't drink it.
Most of our camping party was from San Diego, and they all complained about how shitty SD water is from the tap, and it got me wondering what sort of effect all of those quagga mussels delivered via the Colorado River in all of their reservoirs have on it?
Quagga and Zebra Mussels in California - Incident Description
Comrade Kristina wrote:
Unicorn pee is probably strongly hallucinogenic.
Jackdawracy wrote:
like they say, don't drink the water, the mussels frack in it
km4 wrote:
Mr. Market would rather believe the rumor from unnamed sources that state "all is well".
Dow + 6.66 right now.
Hmm.
The debt bill is in the details.
I think it's all the Hillbilly Heroin that ends up in our water supply here in Florida. I'm pretty sure we're the oxy capital of the planet.
adornosghost wrote:
Heat wave last week in DC. Quite moderate today, in the high 70s, but the heat is expected to return by the end of the week, with temp in the high 90s. We expect heat here, and the summer has just begun.
I swear they do that on purpose. The S&P was at that the other day.
Merkel Says No European Shared Liability As Long As She Lives | ZeroHedge
GERMANY'S MERKEL SAYS EUROPE WILL NOT HAVE SHARED LIABILITY FOR DEBT AS LONG AS SHE LIVES
Hehehe, I don't think she understands what she just said.
Jackdawracy wrote:
I thought schooners only had two masts, and that the back mast was always the tallest...
I was too concerned that pirates had landed to notice, to be honest.
Well actually, we have both, but the liquid fuel problem is more immediate. Transportation without liquid hydrocarbons is difficult.
Coal To Liquid. is a direct replacement for gasoline/diesel. Just pour the liquid into the tank and turn the key.
Technically Compressed Natural Gas can replace gasoline or propane in many applications at rational cost. May not have a lot of trunk space left in many cars but it's purportedly doable ... technically. Now legally ... this is about the only case I can think of other than ANWR where government intransigence actually is a substantive problem.
Jackdawracy wrote:
Don't Catalina pirates offer wine and cheese to their victims?
Govt. Cheese wrote:
my guess is that the market continues to be focused on Aug 1 and the hope for real QE (new money asset purchases).
I read an interesting article about BIS statements this weekend which warned that CBs had gone too far and had to trim back QE measures. SInce the BIS is a CB organization, this is telling. I think bankers like economists are herd animals and do not stray too far from group thinking.
shill wrote:
Probably wants the two tiered and if someone actually did work to create a physical product, I think it's normal that they would like to be paid back.......unlike the US which borrowed to buy
adornosghost wrote:
I've seen that spelled "Crapter Swineberger". I remember his Red Book showing how mighty the armed forces of the old USSR were and how they were going to invade us, steal our gold, kill our men, rape our women and make slaves of our children.
josap wrote:
The Margaritaville guy wrote a book with a pony on a boat. Lost again in the mists of memory.