Different Views on QE3 Timing

What a load of bullshit. QE doesn't do anything for "the economy", whatever that is. It transfers money to bankers, though.

one, small down day on the market and it's all doom, gloom, and qe3

Monetary policy "accommodation" can take many forms...

Evil

maybe. Yellen and others also talked about "additional communications strategy" whatever that means. my hope would not be for QE so much as a pledge to support the economy with whatever means necessary until unemployment is 7%. Or even better, Beckworth's wish:

To support a stronger economic recovery and to help ensure that inflation, over time, is at levels consistent with the dual mandate, the Committee decided today to begin a new conditional asset purchasing program tied to an explicit growth path for nominal GDP. The Committee believes that nominal GDP should expand to $16 trillion dollars and grow at a 5% annual pace thereafter. To this end, the Committee intends to purchase Treasury and Agency securities every week until this target is hit.

i can't wait for qe3. i'm going to get so, filthy rich from it!

I don't like Pepto Bismol pink. That's why.

You know, I was an art major.

My bathroom down in the long sold South Dade house was done with a turquiose tub (oversized, but not huge), and potty, and teal and slate black tiles with blue/teal lines around. I had walls painted blue; it was remarked that it looked undersea, so I had the daughter and her female friend (who were acting as painters to paid a few graceful killer whales on the wall. Not kidding. I liked it. everyone else did too, and it didn't prevent the house from selling either.

Now, the pale grout in the kitchen tiles--that was a mistake. Never use pale grout.
Pigged

QE helps the banks not the economy. The Fed has a problem. It used to be that helping the banks helped the economy because the banks had GAAP. When GAAP were suspended the connection was broken. Turns out isolating the banks from the vagaries of economic ups and downs is a two way street.

Charge 0.25% on excess deposits.

Hey... L0st.

Good to see you again.

lawyerliz wrote:

Now, the pale grout in the kitchen tiles--that was a mistake. Never use pale grout.

Never use pale grout where mold or staining may be an issue. Big difference.

I don't think they'll charge for excess deposits, but lowering the IOER I'd bet is in the cards as well as an explicit inflation target (not that they 've got a good way to achieve it) and purchases of mortgages.

Rob Dawg wrote:

QE helps the banks not the economy.

bah. go 10:1 leveraged super long SPY. it worked the last two times, right?

Snark

or am I?

RockyR wrote:

one, small down day on the market and it's all doom, gloom, and qe3

They act as if they never lived through 2007.

Smile

I am not the only one who spills stuff on the kitchen floor, right? Stare

"Outsider wrote:
The 4 words that send shivers down every wife's spine:

"I can do that."

Immediately followed by "Hold my beer". "

I that it was:

Immediately followed by "Pull my finger"

gab wrote:

lowering the IOER I'd bet is in the cards as well as an explicit inflation target

we have an explicit inflation target. thats the problem: the Fed has fanatically pursued 2% PCE and ignored employment.

I don't see that lowering the IOER helps much. Any little bit helps, of course, and i am all in favor of negative IOR, just that the Fed has previously rejected this even while pursuing QE. In fact, to some extent, they use this to sterilize QE from having the toxic effects they claim it has.

Haha - you're right! I should have said, "a higher explicit inflation target."

And lowering IOER should have some small impact in a world where 3 year notes yield 41 cents, but I'll admit, it's mostly symbolic.

QE3 is also weapon to battle crises. Seeing as we already got bond yields for Espana into the stratosphere, and no meltdown, the bazooka in the pocket effect of QE3 is best held off until a Sunday night when everyone is trapped in long positions. We could get there anytime in the next 5 weeks. It doesnt have to wait for the FOMC mtg. But using it now would be a huge waste, given the effectiveness of the other gumflappings to keep the market propped up. (notwithstanding today's Elmo! action) But today's data was an inevitable and already predicted part of the Fed's downgrading. There was no reason to expect a rebound from the trend since early March for US and late december for EU. Thus, no shock today, and since we havent cratered, no QE. Give it time.

Yeh, you're just the only one that puts it back into the saute pan. Smile

GDD9000 wrote:

Yeh, you're just the only one that puts it back into the saute pan.

only if it's still alive

who cares, other than the navel gazer doomer class?

it's coming, QE to infinity and beyond

they're trapped, cornered, treed, up a creek without a paddle

I don't think we're arguing whether it's coming or not - we're just debating the form.

Is it time to repost BB's 2002 fireside chat on the options still available to him on the menu of financial unorthodoxy?

Well, duh, of course!

http://www.federalreserve.gov/BOARDDOCS/SPEECHES/2002/20021121/default.htm 

A few of the gems from the above :

"A particularly important protective factor in the current environment is the strength of our financial system: Despite the adverse shocks of the past year, our banking system remains healthy and well-regulated, and firm and household balance sheets are for the most part in good shape."

"The conclusion that deflation is always reversible under a fiat money system follows from basic economic reasoning. A little parable may prove useful: Today an ounce of gold sells for $300, more or less."

"We conclude that, under a paper-money system, a determined government can always generate higher spending and hence positive inflation. " - uhhh, but we're not gonna do it.

"If we do fall into deflation, however, we can take comfort that the logic of the printing press example must assert itself, and sufficient injections of money will ultimately always reverse a deflation. " - so now, were not in a deflation, but we're still acting as if we are. My Head Just Exploded So, then I guess we are. Or... My Head Just Exploded

"Lower rates over the maturity spectrum of public and private securities should strengthen aggregate demand in the usual ways and thus help to end deflation. " - yer not doin' it right. Hold my beer....

"In practice, the effectiveness of anti-deflation policy could be significantly enhanced by cooperation between the monetary and fiscal authorities. A broad-based tax cut, for example, accommodated by a program of open-market purchases to alleviate any tendency for interest rates to increase, would almost certainly be an effective stimulant to consumption and hence to prices. " - so, uhhmm, we're gonna raise taxes, and I'm gonna watch, quietly, as my work is undone.

"First, as you know, Japan's economy faces some significant barriers to growth besides deflation, including massive financial problems in the banking and corporate sectors and a large overhang of government debt. Plausibly, private-sector financial problems have muted the effects of the monetary policies that have been tried in Japan, even as the heavy overhang of government debt has made Japanese policymakers more reluctant to use aggressive fiscal policies (for evidence see, for example, Posen, 1998). Fortunately, the U.S. economy does not share these problems, at least not to anything like the same degree, suggesting that anti-deflationary monetary and fiscal policies would be more potent here than they have been in Japan. " - only difference left is that our corporates aren't massively indebted. And I'm not even sure about that distinction anymore.

"failure to end deflation in Japan does not necessarily reflect any technical infeasibility of achieving that goal. Rather, it is a byproduct of a longstanding political debate about how best to address Japan's overall economic problems. As the Japanese certainly realize, both restoring banks and corporations to solvency and implementing significant structural change are necessary for Japan's long-run economic health. But in the short run, comprehensive economic reform will likely impose large costs on many, for example, in the form of unemployment or bankruptcy. As a natural result, politicians, economists, businesspeople, and the general public in Japan have sharply disagreed about competing proposals for reform." - no difference here now.

Conclusion : TOTAL FAIL

what for?

it's more money, followed by more money, and after they have it fucked up six ways to Sunday, maybe we'll have a taste

but I wouldn't count on it

Should it be "data is weak" or "data are weak"?

does anybody ever help you along your way?

mr_clueless wrote:

Should it be "data is weak" or "data are weak"?

data are weak

"I don't think we're arguing whether it's coming or not - we're just debating the form. "

It's just like hawking a goober.

"is that like hanging a lugie? "

That's the Canadian version.

I sometimes wonder if Ben B. doesn't get a bit irritated with everyone expecting the next QE at every bad news and blasting the prices of commodities up, making his job even harder. If I were him, every now and then, I'd let things ride when people expected QE, just to keep everyone from trying to game it.

Just had a lady call me about managing her properties.
The prior compaqny has been shut down by the Az Dept of RE. There is $268K missing from their Trust account!!!!!
The Broker has had his lic revoked and the file turned over to the Attorney General's office. The rest of the office simply changed company name and is doing business!!!!

I told her how to file a claim with the Recovery Fund.

TheEconomist wrote:

If I were him

you'd be on wanted posters someday

RockyR wrote:

data are weak

data pl. datum sing. are Latin words, data sing. is English,...much like the idea of stadium Latin from Greek stadia (distance measure) therefore plural in English stadiums. Uh, that's American English, not British English.

"data are weak "

HomeGnome would say the proper pronunciation is

"Data are done be weak"

TheEconomist wrote:

I'd let things ride when people expected QE,

He needs to save the last shells in the shot gun for the day Europe implodes.
Then he fires both barrels at once.

TheEconomist wrote:

I sometimes wonder if Ben B. doesn't get a bit irritated with everyone expecting the next QE at every bad news and blasting the prices of commodities up, making his job even harder.

Professor Ben believed in expectations, the wealth effect, and that monetary policy should not react to import prices or supply shocks.

There is no Chairman Ben: he is merely the spokesperson for a 19 headed hydra.

TheEconomist wrote:

If I were him, every now and then

you'd be sorting your tools. Sledge hammer, tack hammer, geologist hammer ball peen hammer, roofing hammer, claw hammer, water hammer, ...

poic wrote:

"Data are done be weak"

Hon, are the data done yet?

pavel.chichikov wrote:

Hon, are the data done yet?

no, but dey eyes be gettin glassy

GDD9000 wrote:

Yeh, you're just the only one that puts it back into the saute pan.

Cooking Vampire Squid from Hell ? Careful, even when dead they can still No one 17 and under admitted you.

Cooked Squid Inseminates Woman’s Mouth - ABC News

poic wrote:

"Data are done be weak"

That's because we have THERE! ARE! FOUR! LIGHTS! Facepalm You will be assimilated. Resistance is futile. and no Data.

Slow_Roll_Troll wrote:

even when dead

I sooooo am not reading that link.

Moved from last thread...

"The Houston metropolitan area has one of the highest rates of uninsured people in America, and a health safety net that’s imploding under the demands of too many people and too few resources."

Karma: Think about this. Houston took in the lion's share of distressed and homeless from NOLA after Katrina. One bayou people extending a hand to another bayou people. Houston and other gulf towns have a historical connection, along with devastating hurricanes they can all relate to. But the Nawlins refugees never went back home, like Houstonians thought they would.

I've been expecting something like this.

Blackhalo:

"Why should they pay, when they don't need it to play."

I'd tell the crybabies, if'n you wants ta play in my backyard and blow up economies, pay up. Otherwise, go somewhere else to do your dirty dealin'. I don't blame the Germans one little bit. London City's been playing fast 'n' loose for years and gettin' away with it. They started the whole tax haven BS.

The German states have nailed it. If you want to stop the shenanigans, tax the spice flow. There's a reason why AIG and the London whale were stationed in the City.

We just paid a visit to the National Zoo, where a docent explained how to tell a male octopus from a female. It's not the way us vertebrates might think.

josap wrote:

I sooooo am not reading that link.

My sentiments exactly.

poic wrote:

"Data are done be weak"

New Keyboard

Slow_Roll_Troll wrote:

Cooked Squid Inseminates Woman’s Mouth - ABC News

mmm, tasty salty

I just love how even the downgrade levels of the banks by Moody's beat the whisper number.

LOL

poic wrote:

I just love how even the downgrade levels of the banks by Moody's beat the whisper number.

LOL

Wasn't that a bit of a kick, eh? Reality breaks through the squid's ink.

"mmm, tasty salty bukake"

That was a conversation killer.

josap wrote:

That was a conversation killer.
Oups

So, about QE3....

pavel.chichikov wrote:

It's not the way us vertebrates might think.

Fish are vertebrates too, but with the number of sex changing fish species, you probably wouldn't surprise them with octopus gender..

Slow_Roll_Troll wrote:

So, about QE3...

put it in the hoppa

It's the squid wot's done it, Josap.

No QE3 until Europe goes bust,
JMO

Down grade bad. The good news is Banksters bonus are safe. Laughing out loud

U.S. Economic Confidence Ticks Down for Third Straight WeekZ

U.S. Economic Confidence Ticks Down for Third Straight Week 

I have a question for the commentariat. A friend sent this query to me and I had no answer. Maybe someone here does:

"There is a stand up comedian — he used to be a writer for Letterman’s show — who used to do a bit about his father saying:

'Life is just a swirling, sucking eddy of despair, filled with small moments of false hope, in an ever-blackening universe.' ”

Was it Woody Allen or some other twisted person who'd fit right in here at HCN? Thought it was apropos for the threads I've been reading recently.

JBR wrote:

put it in the hoppa

YouTube - DISH Commercial - The Hopper: Boston (:30)

Probably only funny to New Englanders..

And formah New Englandahs. My kids love that commercial. "Oh, look! Uncle Jimmy!"

I was gonna suggest you bold that so folks would notice.

Paradigm Lost wrote:

'Life is just a swirling, sucking eddy of despair, filled with small moments of false hope, in an ever-blackening universe.'

Sounds like our commentary on toilets.

Paradigm Lost wrote:

Was it Woody Allen or some other twisted person who'd fit right in here at HCN? Thought it was apropos for the threads I've been reading recently.

Meh. My dad used to say "Life was five days of really good sailing - then you die."

But he also used to say [about retirement]... "A week of nothing but sailing is a lot of sailing."

You just can't please them.

[FTR - he loved sailing].

The Fed is going to keep on Twisting until they can Twist no more.

Paradigm Lost wrote:

Life is just a swirling, sucking eddy of despair, filled with small moments of false hope, in an ever-blackening universe.

You think this might be right?

When Bill Maher made his debut on one of those New Young Comedian shows he did a bit that went something like this...

"When I was a kid my dad would say things to me like, 'Life is a swirling, sucking, eddy of despair, filled with small moments of false hope in an ever blackening universe.' ... and I'd say, 'Gee, dad, if I can't have the bike just say so."

Still makes me laugh.

Quotations and Literature Forum• View topic - Life is:

TJ and The Bear wrote:

YouTube - Ted "Boston Girls" Red Band Clip [HD]: Seth MacFarlane & Mark Wahlberg Get High & Talk Boston Girls

Awesome.

BTW, "Idle Hands." Unrecognized genius.

TJ and The Bear wrote:

Seth MacFarlane & Mark Wahlberg Get High & Talk Boston Girls

That should not have made me laugh as much as it did, I'm way too classy for such lowbrow humor.

Too much of a good thing, eh, Dryfly?

NYT Adds Tech Heavyweights Ito, McAndrews to Board
does the Times really consider these guys heavyweights?
...
I know a bit about Ito, if memory serves he was more a flash in the pan...

sdtfs: I think you get the gold star. I'll email my friend. Thanks.

Paradigm Lost wrote:

Too much of a good thing, eh, Dryfly?

Ya sometimes - he liked to work and did into his middle 70s... then retired to gardening [more work]. The thing that made sailing really really fun was [1] that it was and [2] he didn't do it all that often. Same applied to skiing when he was younger and fishing most of his life. In short a lot of work and a little fun in between made the fun a lot more fun - do it too often and it too becomes work.

Paradigm Lost wrote:

sdtfs: I think you get the gold star. I'll email my friend. Thanks.

You know, I just copied the phrase directly into the Google search and checked the top three results,...

Me and my buddies always believed in this...work hard; play hard. And we did. For some, life was short but rich.

JBR wrote:

YouTube - Shit Boston Girls Say

Warning, F-Bombs. Smile

Jeez, ya dinnah need ta whorn us. Cripes.

So, from what I could catch on the TV it appeared to be an exciting market day. Oil was very interesting.

Thursday, June 21, 7:23 PM Global TV shipments fell nearly 8% Y/Y in Q1, estimates DisplaySearch, as firmer pricing hurt volumes, and consumers directed a greater chunk of their electronics spending at mobile devices.

Tech Currents - Seeking Alpha

Woj wrote:

I think Goldman is now on the right track.

Agree.
Unless the bottom falls out of Europe.

Comrade Kristina wrote:

an exciting market day.

Mr. Market threw a tantrum, no QE.
And I think they are finally looking at the numbers, that whole global slow down thing.

Oil is the tell. They figured out broke ass people with no jobs don't drive much.

Comrade Kristina wrote:

an exciting market day

Only triple digits. Wait until the market gets the bad news.

Comrade Kristina wrote:

Oil is the tell.

It's also storm season. One of those can throw a wrench into the oil patch.

Woj & everyone, if you can"t get a loan rates don't matter.

Comrade Kristina wrote:

no jobs don't drive much

they sure fly like the dickens though. let me know when/where you find a quiet commercial airport in a us city that is worth visiting.

Comrade Kristina wrote:

Oil is the tell. They figured out broke ass people with no jobs don't drive much.

Also Oil Drops a Third Day in London on Crude Supply Increase - Bloomberg

Crude stockpiles at Cushing, Oklahoma, the delivery point for New York futures, rose 625,000 barrels to a record last week, data from the American Petroleum Institute showed. Gasoline inventories increased 1.1 million barrels, compared with a forecast gain of 1 million barrels in today’s government report, according to the median estimate of 11 analysts in a Bloomberg News survey. Distillate supplies, a category that includes heating oil and diesel, slid 269,000 barrels compared with a projected gain of 1 million.

Comrade Kristina wrote:

They figured out broke ass people with no jobs don't drive much.

In fact, he declares the price of oil as now being more influential in stimulating or depressing sovereign economies than central bank interest rates. In his words, ""oil is the new Federal Funds rate"".

Jim Puplava: Oil Is The New Federal Funds Rate | Chris Martenson PhD | FINANCIAL SENSE

Comrade Kristina wrote:

They figured out broke ass people with no jobs don't drive much.

Can't commute to a job you don't have and/or won't get. Did you see that 400K drop in job openings?

Young Wall Street Traitor Joins Occupy Wall Street

At one point in my career, I was being recruited by a hedge fund. During the recruitment process, one of my interviewers frankly described the fund’s founder—his boss’s boss—as a “spoiled brat billionaire.” My interviewer related a story about a meeting between the hedge fund and an executive at a company the fund wanted to work with. At one point, the visiting executive made statements the fund founder didn’t like. The founder turned to the visitor and said, “So, you came here just to try and fuck me over?” The visitor quickly stormed out in a rage. But the founder wasn’t satisfied just yet. He followed the man out of the room, into the elevator, shouted the entire ride down, and then yelled at him in the lobby until he finally left the building. When the founder came back upstairs to greet his shaken employees, he said, invigorated and beaming, “Wasn’t that fun?!”

This is Wall Street’s equivalent of the American Dream: to earn enough money so that you can behave in a way that makes the very existence of other people irrelevant.

josap wrote:

the price of oil as now being more influential in stimulating or depressing sovereign economies

Best coincident indicator going these days, but ultimately a speed governor on our economic engine.

TJ and The Bear wrote:

Can't commute to a job you don't have and/or won't get.

No worries, we're heading into their peak 'aggressively saving' years, anyway. Smile

TJ and The Bear wrote:

a speed governor on our economic engine.

From slow to stop?
There are days I would love to get rid of the car and the $600 mo in total cost to pay for it and all the stuff it requires.

Over the last 5 years the word 'feds' has a new meaning as in what it represents ...

Starving Artist wrote:

Distillate supplies, a category that includes heating oil and diesel, slid 269,000 barrels compared with a projected gain of 1 million.

Because peeps still have to heat the house, and/or run the water heater off the boiler.

Starving Artist wrote:

Crude stockpiles at Cushing, Oklahoma, the delivery point for New York futures, rose 625,000 barrels to a record last week...

I wonder if speculators are worried that storage facilities around Cushing may soon be full. If that happens, specs who get delivery, get the oil from the end of a pipeline and may not have any place to store the oil until they can redeliver it. IIRC, they end up with big losses when the have to dump it in the cash market. Cash buyers know they have you "over a barrel". No pun intended.

josap wrote:

From slow to stop?

Nah, the price just rises along with the economy until it strangles it again.

Paradigm Lost wrote:

There's a reason why AIG and the London whale were stationed in the City.

Agreed. And probably a prime reason why Britain avoided the euro, London did not wan German bankers looking too close at London Banks. Not that the German banks are any better.

REBear wrote:

'feds' has a new meaning as in what it represents ...

A clown car, full of guys with bags of money for the banks?

People better wrap their head around the fact oil is never going to be 'cheap' again though. In the past you stuck a pipe in the ground and it pumped itself due the high pressures. So you had a significant start up sunken cost but once past that the variable [marginal] cost of production was nil.

Not anymore - now they have a big sunken cost still [larger actually] but the marginal variable cost is also pretty damned high [these wells no longer pump themselves]. So once the price approached marginal variable cost they shut it down. And since wells have a very wide distribution of costs [some a lot more expensive to run on a day to day basis than others] the spigot starts shutting off as soon as the price starts to decline and supporting high prices.

This is very different from late 70s and early 80s where variable marginal cost was low so they kept pumping all the way to 'zero'.

UPDATE 3-Argentina truckers get deal, end strike but plan new protest
| Reuters

Striking truckers blocked fuel depots and refineries for a second day on Thursday, sparking shortages at gas stations and some homes in one of the biggest trade-union challenges to Fernandez in her five years in office.

Drivers left picket lines after Moyano, head of the CGT labor federation, agreed to a 25.5 percent pay rise with haulage company bosses, and local media said fuel supplies should be back to normal within 48 hours.

However, the truckers are also pushing for Fernandez to raise the income tax floor as inflation eats into wages.
...
Annual inflation estimated at about 25 percent is stoking labor unrest as the economy cools after a long boom.

Surging prices have also fueled capital flight and eroded the competitiveness of Argentine goods, prompting Fernandez to slap unorthodox curbs on imports and foreign currency purchases that are riling importers and the middle class.

The strike also reflected jostling for position within the CGT federation ahead of next month's leadership elections and within Fernandez's ruling and fragmented Peronist party, analysts say.

dryfly wrote:

the fact oil is never going to be 'cheap' again

Which means food, heat, gas, any item shipped by truck ....... is not going to be cheap again.

Rajesh wrote:

Annual inflation estimated at about 25 percent is stoking labor unrest as the economy cools after a long boom.

I remember seeing this movie a long time ago.
Wonder if it ends any differently this time around.
Probably not.

Higher prices meaning more consumer spending ... what's wrong with that?

josap wrote:

Which means food, heat, gas, any item shipped by truck ....... is not going to be cheap again.

That's not all bad. These are valuable resources - they should be 'expensive' so as to encourage wise use and conservation. The argument about 'what will poor people do?' is a wealth distribution problem. An issue but shouldn't be confused with the scarcity and preciousness of energy and food and the resources used to produce them [like soil].

New poll on the front page of MarketWatch

Which big U.S. bank is most likely to need a fresh bailout?
Bank of America

Citigroup

Goldman Sachs

J.P. Morgan Chase

Morgan Stanley

Wells Fargo

MarketWatch - Stock Market Quotes, Business News, Financial News 

josap wrote:

Which big U.S. bank is most likely to need a fresh bailout?

They forgot one ... the fed.

REBear wrote:

more consumer spending ...

I think that engine of growth it finally starting to sputter, despite the cheap credit. How much do you save in payments when mortgage rates go from 4% to 2? 2% to 1, 1% to .5?

Doesn't Citi process a bunch of govmint payments?

I'm thinking BAC is the winner.

I voted Citi - but it was a tough call.

We need you to come off the road for a little bit.
Take some time off.

dryfly wrote:

They forgot one ... the fed.

Really? I thought they were being redundant with both Goldman and JPMorgan on there.

I'm thinking Chase.
Just for the BALLS ON YOUR CHIN moment.

Yes 'money back' on mortgage interest payments reduces significantly

And it can't really be called a bailout for them. More like a tithe, after all they are doing Gods work.

HomeGnome wrote:

Citi process a bunch of govmint payments?

What happens when the food stamp card gets denied?

Um, we still have the recovery fund?

I thought we swept it.

Give her a coupon.

Someday this war's gonna end...

I mean, really.
The proles need a demonstration of WHO OWNS THIS COUNTRY!

Which means food, heat, gas, any item shipped by truck ....... is not going to be cheap again.

our energy costs -- direct and embedded -- are a pimple compared to our health and housing costs.

Ah, yes; .50 cents a swipe all day long.

Gangster.

Was it last week when the fed suddenly announced that they got back all of the loaned money?

Blackhalo wrote:

What happens when the food stamp card gets denied?

get that crappy job that isn't career-quality and doesn't pay as much as the last job?

Agreed, not until the Germans cry uncle amid total panic and destruction.

Then, and only then, we will do QE3- to save OUR banks.

Someday this war's gonna end...

Dinner:

Crab and Three Cheese Macaroni.

Mrs. Gnomemade....

Om-nom-nom-nom

emergency hotdog wrote:

get that crappy job that isn't career-quality and doesn't pay as much as the last job?

I doubt all of them will be able to find such work at the same time.

Oh dear gawd,
There are Gnomegrown cherry tomatoes in there...

km4 wrote:

Is Barack Obama Morphing Into Dick Cheney?

Nah, Cheaney wore his corporate whoredom like a badge of honor. BO's "man of the people" disguise, is just starting to wear thin.

I've been craving some mac and cheese...grrrrr HG...

Blackhalo wrote:

And probably a prime reason why Britain avoided the euro

Doubtful.

It is even claw meat in the mac and cheese.

I'm wondering if I should go make sure car is alright...

HomeGnome wrote:

Doesn't Citi process a bunch of govmint payments?

They process SNAP cards.

Citizen AllenM wrote:

Then, and only then, we will do QE3- to save OUR banks.

Ya screw our people. They can save themselves or not.

I watched the kid in the office yesterday tuck into a cheeseburger topped with a deep fried patty of mac and cheese at Cheesecake factory yesterday...I so wanna buy cardiologist futures after watching that meal- with fries, natch. Looked and smelled fantastic. Gotta go to the gym now.

Someday this war's gonna end...

Blackhalo wrote:

Nah, Cheaney wore his corporate whoredom like a badge of honor. BO's "man of the people" disguise, is just starting to wear thin.

Good point but I would say transparent as heck rather than just starting to wear thin Wink

josap wrote:

They process SNAP cards.

So not really important in an elites sort of thinking...

sdtfs wrote:

you probably wouldn't surprise them with octopus gender..

It's the very strange physiology, body plan.

km4 wrote:

I would say transparent as heck rather than just starting to wear thin

You should probably get your prescription checked.

Rose Colored Glasses

Citizen AllenM wrote:

I thought we swept it.

No clue. I hope not, alot of people lost alot of money.
The part I found interesting, after looking at the AZ RE site - the associate broker moved into the broker spot and most of the agents are the same people.

I keep trying to get the right ideas out there, but look at the resistance here, and imagine if this was a room populated by the typical chamber of commerce crowd. DOA.

Like the business fools who think we are going back to anything short of the full on 1930s.

Only Warren Buffet and Charlie Munger remember, and I am sure they have set out a super secret set of operating instructions for the Borg that is Berkshire Hathaway.

Meanwhile, gotta flow, gym calls.

Someday this war's gonna end...

josap wrote:

Which big U.S. bank is most likely to need a fresh bailout?

Does it matter? Won't they bail them all out at once to 'disguise' which of them really need it and which of them only kind of need it and which of them are in desperate straits. And of course the ones which are solvent, if there be any such creature.

dryfly wrote:

So not really important in an elites sort of thinking...

Until they all do an "Occupy" Jamie Dimon's private island... Where there is not a commensurate police presence capable of dealing with it. But I'm sure Jamie would just call up the Nat Guard. Or if he actually has to break down an pay for it himself, Xe nee Blackwater.

sdtfs wrote:

Won't they bail them all out at once to 'disguise' which of them really need it

Not the next time.
Used up that hat trick.

Citizen AllenM wrote:

I watched the kid in the office yesterday tuck into a cheeseburger topped with a deep fried patty of mac and cheese at Cheesecake factory yesterday...I so wanna buy cardiologist futures after watching that meal- with fries, natch. Looked and smelled fantastic.

A physician we knew explained it this way: Our brains are designed to light up with pleasure at the possibility of our ingesting fat, because in a natural environment fat is hard for us to come by, and it's a high calorie, valuable nutrient.

We're nutritionally out of control.

dryfly wrote:

So not really important in an elites sort of thinking...

Earning a transaction fee on cards held by 46 million Americans? Damn straight someone wants a piece of that action.

Blackhalo wrote:

Or if he actually has to break down an pay for it himself, Xe nee Blackwater.

He can afford Xe and probably already has a contract with them.

pavel.chichikov wrote:

It's the very strange physiology, body plan.

Yes, it's different. There's a lot of strange creatures out there. And then just when you get comfortable with that, you start learning about plants.

TJ and The Bear wrote:

Earning a transaction fee on cards held by 46 million Americans? Damn straight someone wants a piece of that action.

I think they call that 'waste fraud and abuse' so it can go. Better they earned their commissions doing something valuable to 'society' like securitizing ABS. Feeding actual people just encourages them.

Comrade Kristina wrote:

Didn't he already purchase the NYPD?

I don't remember which bank bought the NYPD.

Yep.
NYPD receives JP Morgan donation, mass arrest of protesters at #OccupyWallstreet | TheElitist

Comrade Kristina wrote:

Didn't he already purchase the NYPD?

Does that come with the Bloomberg terminal subscription? I should get one of those. Be kind of nice to have one to keep the kids off the lawn.

mr_clueless wrote:

Should it be "data is weak" or "data are weak"?

SHITTY DATA

Time to watch the game. See you all in the morning Nytol

meh... i know a guy that owns a shop that installs and maintains really big ice machines. the machines can make several tons of ice a day. he has been looking for help(at $12-15/hr) for a long time and can't find it. the help would mainly be muscle and a gofer but would gain very valuable experience over time. no takers. he has actually hired a friend of mine under the table for big jobs. my friend already has a full-time job.

sigh...
Lunch atop a Skyscraper - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

We need another 'stress test'

Looking over some economic data just prior to QE2, it was worse than it is now. Unemployment rate had fallen steadily down to 8.9% by March, 2011 but then stalled there for a couple of months. Now it's down to 8.2%, which is "better."

4-week initial claims are lower now than before QE2.

2011 Q1 GDP was down as low as +.36% but for Q1 this year it was +1.86%, also "better."

Manufacturing PMI is lower than a year ago, but still in the "expansion" zone.

Then we found out today that the Conference Board's LEI was actually up in May.

Without some really bad data, I'm not sure QE3 is in the cards any time soon.

Sebastian

TheEconomist wrote:

expecting the next QE at every bad news and blasting the prices of commodities up, making his job even harder.

It does not look like Oil got the memo.

emergency hotdog wrote:

looking for help(at $12-15/hr)

How much after taxes?
What is the amount of UE where you are?
Do the enemployed get medical? SNAP?

emergency hotdog wrote:

he has been looking for help(at $12-15/hr) for a long time and can't find it. the help would mainly be muscle and a gofer but would gain very valuable experience over time.

Benefits? Vacation? You can get that money with benefits and some vacation at fast food places once you get to full time [and some do not all are PT temp].

he has been looking for help(at $12-15/hr) for a long time and can't find it

because every last unemployed person in that market is a lazy slacker uninterested in working.

meh yourself.

Sebastian wrote:

Without some really bad data, I'm not sure QE3 is in the cards any time soon.

best thing I can say about Sebastian is
I'd like to short his book all day long...

josap wrote:

How much after taxes?
What is the amount of UE where you are?
Do the enemployed get medical? SNAP?

not sure.
don't know.
no idea.

after a year or two of working for this guy a person would have the knowledge and experience to get a $20/hr job easily. nobody is willing to pay their dues. it's easier to get snappy card.

I don't think we're arguing whether it's coming or not - we're just debating the form.

QE3 will come in all forms

No Cape this evening, my wife wasn't in the mood for the drive, take off early in the AM.

"best thing I can say about Sebastian is
I'd like to short his book all day long..."

You want his balls on your chin?

emergency hotdog wrote:

no.
Ok, here's the deal.
If I'm getting UE, plus Snap, plus medical for the kids - I lose alot by taking that job. What happens a year or so down the road doesn't put food on the table today.

emergency hotdog wrote:

nobody is willing to pay their dues. it's easier to get snappy card.

I don't know. If I try to buy a new car for $x,000 and there are no takers, is it that my offer is too low or is it that the car companies are lazy?

Who's this crazy guy who keeps throwing down the The first rule of kayaking is to not use it as your signature. icon?

Facepalm x 100

You want his balls on your chin?

--What is it with you, Poic?

emergency hotdog wrote:

after a year or two of working for this guy a person would have the knowledge and experience to get a $20/hr job easily.

Wow. I find it hard to believe no one is interested. Leads me to suspect there may be other (negative) factors not listed.

"You want his balls on your chin?

--What is it with you, Poic?"

CAN YOU READ ENGRISH?

JHC No one 17 and under admitted

josap wrote:

If I'm getting UE, plus Snap

There are plenty of teenagers in San Diego who would take that,...but I'm betting it's not in this area.

sdtfs wrote:

Wow. I find it hard to believe no one is interested. Leads me to suspect there may be other (negative) factors not listed.

It's not a nice clean office job working with a computer. And the boss is right there supervising. So not much twitter and chat time.

shill has a wife??

21 years Tuesday...High School sweet hearts...my world.

Anyway...No SPO, for AGNC pe/eps says 45$ a share target in my opinion

It's going to get bloody in the markets, AgNc and mreits will begin to attract more and more followers considering the MBS's are government guaranteed.

Today bought at 32.30... The ship is boarding for sail.. Now back to the yacht race

emergency hotdog wrote:

he has been looking for help(at $12-15/hr)

You can get an entry-level call center job, sitting down in air-conditioning, for that price. Your description tends to imply heavy lifting work outside and on-site. Good luck with that.

Well, congratulations shill! that's great!

you marry young? I figure you for a young guy.

miracle the called carrying in an nba game yougi and duke

emergency hotdog wrote:

dryfly wrote:
Benefits? Vacation?
no.

I get why some kid would maybe do it for a summer - I did work like that - but not for long. Its harder work and pay is no better than Mickey D [after starting]. And Micky D promotes and if full time pays benefits.

I get his frustration - but that is just the way it is. He should talk to a temp agency - they would provide him bodies.

If the first 8 minutes are any indication the final score will be 44-42. Talk about cold.

Moody’s downgrades global banks, including RBC - The Globe and Mail

Jun. 21 2012, 6:42 PM EDT

"The financial institutions affected by the new downgrades include American giants Bank of America Corp., Citigroup Inc. Goldman Sachs and JP Morgan Chase, as well as European-based Barclays Bank PLC, Deutsche Bank and Societe Generale. RBC was the only Canadian bank affected, seeing its debt rating fall from Aa1 to Aa3 -- a two-notch downgrade."

sdtfs wrote:

emergency hotdog wrote:
after a year or two of working for this guy a person would have the knowledge and experience to get a $20/hr job easily.
Wow. I find it hard to believe no one is interested. Leads me to suspect there may be other (negative) factors not listed.

I also think it unlikely a year being a gofer puts you in place to make $20/hr. Not here and we only have 5% UE.

You ever spend time detassling corn?

Sebastian wrote:

Without some really bad data, I'm not sure QE3 is in the cards any time soon.

I've been thinking that the current slow grind upward is acceptable to the Fed, but haven't had any data to support my feeling until you interesting comparison.

You know I can't reach that high, yet you openly mock me.

Your preference to ridicule the physically challenged is noted.
Glasses

sdtfs wrote:

factors not listed

  1. you lift all the heavy stuff (some of this stuff gets pretty heavy)
  2. you go to the truck to get me what's needed. (this involves going up and down a big ladder over and over, in the sun, during the summer.)
  3. if the work is filthy, you'll do it.
  4. exposure to live high-voltage electrical, heights, extreme heat/cold, etc...

all part of the hvac industry dues paying process. all listed. nobody is interested.

HomeGnome wrote:

You ever spend time detassling corn?

No but 'walked beans' and threw hay and loaded turkey trucks.

Detassling is all day but real temporary [a few weeks] and I had better summer jobs. Real jobs - like in factories. Hard to get those as a kid today.

I know lots of folks who did detassling.

"You know I can't reach that high, yet you openly mock me.

Your preference to ridicule the physically challenged is noted."

Have you ever thought of just stepping up to what life has to offer. And not being so short with your hcn brethren?

emergency hotdog wrote:

get a $20/hr job easily. nobody is willing to pay their dues.

How long do you think Jamie Dimon 'paid his dues' at $15/hr?

all part of the hvac industry dues paying process. all listed. nobody is interested.

raise your wage offer until somebody is then.

welcome to the real world, LOL

walked beans

---my first job.
totally soaked and my shoes caked with a few pounds of mud each by the first 50' of a 1000' row.
Good times!

emergency hotdog wrote:

all part of the hvac industry dues paying process. all listed. nobody is interested.

I know lots of folks in HVAC - to make $20/hr here you need to get an AA at vo tech. Having been a gopher helps but you have to have the certs to make decent money & benefits.

He should talk to local vo techs - get the kids the year before they are accepted into the program. There are frequently waiting lists. Kids could do it almost like a pre-apprenticeship.

HomeGnome wrote:

walked beans
---my first job.
totally soaked and my shoes caked with a few pounds of mud each by the first 50' of a 1000' row.
Good times!

We did it for the father of a friend [farmer]. We already had a job but could get extra money and did. We rarely did it all day. Just hot spots in his fields where weeds were running wild. $2/hr if I recall - cash money.

How long do you think Jamie Dimon 'paid his dues' at $15/hr?

Ooh. Good one.

emergency hotdog wrote:

exposure to live high-voltage electrical, heights, extreme heat/cold, etc...

I would want medical / disability and alot more than $15 hr.

Time to go to the HOA meeting.
Later.

I heard the local Walmart distribution center pays $17/hr. for loading and unloading their big trucks, full time, whatever bennies they provide, probably low tier.

dryfly wrote:

He should talk to local vo techs

he has. the guys want $20/hr right off the bat. trade schools get you ready to learn a trade, they don't make you a tradesman.

HomeGnome wrote:

You ever spend time detassling corn?

can't speak for dryfly but I can for myself and Cindy Crawford...
the two of us (independently arrived at) think this is the toughest job we ever had... Duke Point

It's all about the free market until those damn kids don't want the below-market wages I want to pay them Big smile

Duke of Con Dao wrote:

but I can for myself and Cindy Crawford...

Duke, you take "full of shit" to an entirely new level. Laughing out loud

Agronox wrote:

below-market wages

the really free market includes illegal immigrants. they work their asses off, all day, every day. have you ever seen mexicans(yes, i said mexicans) stage(or place, not sure what the trade term is) rebar when a tower is going up? fucking terminators. they. do. not. stop. until lunch, then the eat. but after that, they. do. not. stop. prolly for $10/hr. no benefits/vacation. gimme that snappy card yo!

Cut the safety net to ensure a good supply of low wage workers. Problem solved.

I'd say "In your dreams", but for him it's his dreams' dreams' dreams.

The new term is

"You're full of Duke Point"

josap wrote:

I would want medical / disability and alot more than $15 hr.

meh, I did similar work for a satellite dish installer as recently as 2001 for less. Dead lifting cinder block up two stories, throwing stuff over your shoulders up a ladder. Ya, I was sort of between jobs but it was interesting work for six or nine months. We were dismantling a big ol' dish on Vandenberg AFB when they kicked us off site 9/11.

TJ and The Bear wrote:

Duke, you take "full of shit" to an entirely new level.

Cindy talked about this in an interview back in '89 for Elle mag.
... not long after that I met her at 150 Wooster ... 'enuff said

Moody's cuts credit ratings of 15 major banks

News from The Associated Press

Outsider wrote:

I'd say "In your dreams"

I. Don't. Care. What You. Think. Old. Crone.

I think you've been in SF too long, brah.

CR shows a new post, but comments direct to HCN homepage.

WTF?

What about massive solar flares?

What about the FIRECAINES?!?!?!?!

$2.98 a gallon tonight at the local Blame it on the Oil

HomeGnome wrote:

the comets?

the comets? again!?

cartwheels into bunker at benny hill speed with benny hill music

Duke of Con Dao wrote:

can't speak for dryfly but I can for myself and Cindy Crawford...

Yeah ... that's the ticket.

"This url is an invalid request, and appears to be an attack. Please let us know if this safeguard is in error."

This when I click on the comments for the latest blog entry:
Residential Remodeling Index increases 2% in April

PastTense wrote:

"This url is an invalid request, and appears to be an attack. Please let us know if this safeguard is in error."

This when I click on the comments for the latest blog entry:
Residential Remodeling Index increases 2% in April

I'm getting the same thing.

Wow! Just freak'in WOW!

5 Housing Markets Where Renting Beats Owning - Real-Time Advice - SmartMoney 

The homeownership rate in the U.S. fell slightly from 66% to 65% during the first quarter of 2012 — the lowest in 15 years, according to the latest data by the U.S. Census. (It peaked at just over 69% in 2004.)

Rise of the Rentier Class Shakes Tiny Fist of Fury

FYA!!!! Do I look like Mrs. Obama to you?

Toothless bandit sentenced to 25 years | years, bandit, sentenced - High Desert News

Charity aims to fill bus with supplies for needy students | supplies, bus, victorville - High Desert News

Emergency Powers Statutes, Senate Report SR 93-549, November 19, 1973 

FOAD!!! Cool

PastTense wrote:

"This url is an invalid request, and appears to be an attack. Please let us know if this safeguard is in error."

the NSA is hAx0RinG CR and hoocoodanode!!1!

I'm figuring you pretty much don't know jack shit

RockyR wrote:

@shill - /nods

must be nice to be a member of a team. life is so simple and dualistic.
plus! you can vote for the same verminy pols (and expect different results) every 4-12 years...

Bubblisimo Gerkinov wrote:

Yeah ... that's the ticket.

yep. just as I thought.
I was never a fan of that girl from DeKalb county IL, if memory serves, but I had this friend
who had a major crush on the babe, not that he had a shot but heh, he's my friend, so I made
it happen at 150 Wooster... helps that I was hanging with Sylvia M at the time, co-owner, and
former gf of richard gere for 7 years... is it getting clearer???

Futures are Its not easy being green... Today was a pullback, not a panic.

I'm figuring you pretty much don't know jack shit

Well, coming from a loser with no life!, please don't mind if I chuckle at your insignificance in the grand scheme Slumcast

Please excuse me as I laugh at you! Wink Evil

RockyR wrote:

Today was a pullback, not a panic.

Could use more of those.

"I'm figuring you pretty much don't know jack shit Duke Point" Fixed It For Ya

Futures are Its not easy being green... Today was a pullback, not a panic.

Today was a joke...

Wait until TSHTF...are you ready?!?

I am...

Get off my lawn!

That's it?
Jesus H. Christ, man.
THAT. IS. IT.???

You're past your prime.

must be nice to be a member of a team. life is so simple and dualistic.
plus! you can vote for the same verminy pols (and expect different results) every 4-12 years...

Life is good doomer...try it before the socialists piss on your shoe.

You? You're a P.O.S. Ill gladly pay you Tuesday for a hamburger today...

Not even worth the effort to use TP....

Why is there a watermelon there?

come on shill...

The socialists?

Don't you have state run health insurance up there in Taxachusetts?

The socialists?

Don't you have state run health insurance up there in Taxachusetts?

I was paraphrasing the great Yuans Socialist philosophy.

It was Snark

Life is good doomer...try it before the socialists piss on your shoe.

In ten years, they'll be lucky to dream such a fantasy! Nemo's Monkey

RockyR wrote:

Futures are Its not easy being green... Today was a pullback, not a panic.

The Bloomberg headline included the word "cratered." Silly. Steady decline, no big losers that didn't deserve it. Futures at +22 are noise.

Rob Dawg wrote:

no big losers that didn't deserve it

Yeah, but why was fb up??

All the bobble heads are quacking...looks to me like a big player shifted some money around that's all...no panic.

TJ and The Bear wrote:

Duke, you take "full of shit" to an entirely new level.

care to put your money where your mouth is, say bet 1000 bucks on it?
...
what about you 'dickless wonder' poic"?
wanna get in on the action...?

TJ and The Bear wrote:

Yeah, but why was fb up??

If I knew I'd be buying Lanai instead of blogging.

TJ and The Bear wrote:

Yeah, but why was fb up??

Not to be too snarky, but who really cares?

ah, positively outstanding service.

thank you newsboy; although that is hardly news.

Duke of Con Dao wrote:

care to put your money where your mouth is on say bet 1000 bucks on it?

I don't question that you could have met her or even share the same views. I just say you're full of shit when you start speaking for her.

Rob Dawg wrote:

If I knew I'd be buying Lanai instead of blogging.

Maybe Ellison bought InGen.

RD: when the shit hit the fan in 2008, the futures market followed through AH as the world resonated panic. that is my tell.

TJ and The Bear wrote:

I just take say your full of shit when you start speaking for her.

there are only 2 subjects I think I can confidently speak for her and she would agree (even today)
1) de-tassling corn 2) Kate Moss

why so much focus on real estate? real estate is dead until wages catch up. that said, real estate won't lead the next leg down.

RockyR wrote:

that is my tell.

If you look at the GD, there was the fast crash, the quick semi-recovery, then the long grind down. I've been waiting for our long grind down.

emergency hotdog wrote:

he has. the guys want $20/hr right off the bat. trade schools get you ready to learn a trade, they don't make you a tradesman.

$20 after trade school is reasonable - the year before they enroll then less is reasonable.

RockyR wrote:

real estate is dead until wages catch up.

That'll be a long wait. Perhaps by that time homeowners might have some useful equity again.

Illusion of Prosperity: Connecting the Home Equity Dots in 6 Easy Steps

HomeGnome wrote:

wednesday Jan 18, 2012

Facepalm

Hiatus.

TJ - that was then, this is now. market dynamics have changed with broader market participation, global communications, and HFT. that, and we haven't just had a semi recovery in the market. with all the monetary "stimulus", equity markets have roared back to life.

The Euro rescue has been delayed, again, by the German courts...

"Germany's highest court asked the country's president on Thursday to delay ratification of the permanent euro bailout fund, the European Stability Mechanism, and the fiscal pact into law next week. If he complies, the move could delay the implementation of the ESM by several weeks in the latest setback for Chancellor Angela Merkel."

German High Court Requests Delay in ESM and Fiscal Pact Ratification - SPIEGEL ONLINE

Ron Paul as Hypocrite? « LewRockwell.com Blog

Unfortunately, Dr. Paul was only human! Lucky Charm

Not enough when faced with BloomTurd (Haughty Herturdo et al.),, Multiple-Scism-B-S and Access Hollyweird!!!

Nothing less than a pseudo-SUPER-Hero will do! Innocent

That is all, please return to your regularly scheduled porn masturbation....

So I guess today's Cliff Notes include "aaaahhhh... market sinks!" Or something along those lines. I studied Corporations, bought designer chocolate and ate a pre-birthday dinner of oysters while overlooking SF Bay. There were 7 legal interns at the table next to me - completely unaware (or unconcerned) that they'd most likely just thrown $200K down the drain. I let them enjoy their innocence. I'm too curmudgeonly these days - I blame it on Barbri.

RockyR wrote:

Today was a pullback, not a panic.

When I sell its a pull back - when you sell its a panic.

We've had nothing like a capitulation moment. Not in housing, not in the markets, not in debt.

China's Evergrande mulls legal defense against fraud accusations
| Reuters

Chairman Hui Ka Yan, who owns 63 percent of Evergrande, said on the Thursday call that the company has 13 billion yuan ($2 billion) of cash on hand, sufficient to cover its operations. "The other side's accusation is absurd, and we are very, very angry," Hui told investors.

Evergrande denies Citron's accusations, and has said it would not revise its forecast for annual sales of 80 billion yuan. The company said it is organizing a team of lawyers to defend itself against the accusations.

When I sell its a pull back - when you sell its a panic.

I bought Au-Ag in 2002-2003 Grade

Not selling yet, not by a longshot! Its a chopper, baby

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