I found this enjoyable comment in a Telegraph article:
" Spanish banks who needed 100 billion a week ago, now need only 60 billion. A couple more weeks of this and they will be solvent, and a short time after that they will be able to match the Greeks for unencumbered wealth."
"U.S. house prices rose 0.8 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from March to April, according to the Federal Housing Finance Agency’s monthly House Price Index. ... For the 12 months ending in April, U.S. prices rose 3.0 percent."
Now rising home prices are a bad economic indicator....right. Like cheap gas prices and low inflation?
adornosghost wrote:
Hmmm- maybe I should ask the Talking Snake about this--
...
a few years back I was in some of the deepest jungle in Cambodia. that day I explained or tried to explain
to some of the villagers (Theravada Buddhists, no doubt) the death and resurrection of Jesus Christ.
they thought that was the craziest story they had ever heard... a man returning from the dead?
leading indicators made up of 10 indicators ... the biggest month over month improvement came from building permits ... -.17%(april) to +.21%(may) ... permits has to be about the easiest thing to pocket ... until the smoke clears.
I think the story is losing its power these days..
I think it had some pull with ignorant pastorals wandering around the desert, and telling themselves embarrassing creation myths, but beyond that not so much.
Just relax, the pension legislation in the pension post, alludes to the fact that corporations will soon have their very own shadow earnings recharge effect, made possible by under-funding all American pensions, and hence earning will continue to rise, just as will bonuses:
I gave my ballot to my college-bound daughter, who was filled with hope for change, and she voted twice for Stupid -- and now sees, that after 4 years of stupidity, the wild goose chase of StupidiCare was a total that diverted all of Stupid's time and resources for his stupid F'ing pet project -- instead of Stupid actually F'ing focusing on the economy and job creation, in addition to putting wall street crooks into prison .. and there was other shit, but my mind can't take this anymore ....
I gave my ballot to my college-bound daughter, who was filled with hope for change, and she voted twice for Stupid -- and now sees, that after 4 years of stupidity, the wild goose chase of StupidiCare was a total Red Herring that diverted all of Stupid's time and resources for his stupid F'ing pet project -- instead of Stupid actually F'ing focusing on the economy and job creation, in addition to putting wall street crooks into prison .. and there was other shit, but my mind can't take this anymore ....
LMAO! Love it Doc...that was priceless. So I guess you won't be voting in " Hope and change " again lol. Not the O-Romney will make is all better...He won't
Citi: America's Aging Population Is Bullish For Stocks - Business Insider
Of course they are. They get zero return from fixed investments. They're setting themselves up for misery if things go south. (And I'm not saying they are.)
I guess you won't be voting in " Hope and change " again
I'm hoping to change the odds of me being picked for jury duty and not voting, or giving my ballot to anyone:
A court selects potential jurors from a list of names that are often obtained from lists of people with drivers licenses in the state and people who are registered to vote in the state.
Tsunami wave of crime ahead; let the voter beware....
Looks like he is saying the 34-39 yr olds are what have really historically caused stock prices to go up? Oh, and don't worry about the retirees, they can't afford to NOT be in high risk assets so they won't be selling their stocks?
We only have one more employment report before the August meeting, and we'll probably hit 8.3 or perhaps 8.4%. 8.5% would be a lock, but I dont think we need that. Another near 100k print and rising UE, we're good for QEx launch, fo sho.
The FHFA monthly index is calculated using purchase prices of houses backing mortgages that
have been sold to or guaranteed by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac.
Cash sales are thus excluded from the calculation. This is a broken indicator. Useless.
instead of Stupid actually F'ing focusing on the economy and job creation, in addition to putting wall street crooks into prison .. and there was other shit, but my mind can't take this anymore
"job creation", LOL.
The 2000s was a massive pump & dump. There is no recovery from that, or, more precisely, back to that.
there was a massive increase in the real economy 1980-2000:
Graph: Gross Domestic Product, 1 Decimal (GDP)*1000000/All Employees: Total nonfarm (PAYEMS) - FRED - St. Louis Fed
I think this chart is much more realistic. It still shows a significant increase though:
Re: "Keep in mind that the past three years actually have been very equity friendly and behavioral psychology argues that people are most affected by their most recent experiences. Additionally, baby boomers do not have the luxury of moving their stock holdings into very low yielding fixed income instruments and have much left for their own retirements.
==> yah, you got about 80 million "average" people that are going to be in a liquidity freeze, and their magic kids are going to have magic jobs making widgets that are in great demand, from a population bse that will be working at walmart. Within this period of shock and awe, the parents homes will go down in value, along with their nest eggs, and the kids are gonna be screaming like crazy to bet all their magic money on bullshit wall street hype -- connected to high frequency churned derivative bets. Meanwhile mom and Pop will be betting their privatized Social Security "income" on hedge strategies that will help them piss away all their cash flow. The good news is, after Ma & Pa die, the house can probably be rented out, unless the magic kids wanna add that to the ever-expanding housing inventory ... and other stuff, but I'm laughing too hard at the article
My numerous and various short positions remain underwater despite substantial gains today. I hope Yerps banks have placed large bets on their own demise. Worked great for US banks...
we should be bouncing toward any moment now, as soon as the PPT finishes their last martini and walks out on the tab. Of course, they might go for another round. Either way, they will drink and slink.
Damned if that isn't a pretty straight trendline on stocks today. Not a panic selloff, just a sure and steady decline. Must be descending that wall of hope.
This is what Our Politicians and World Class over educated Economis have done for use:
" We have begged them to lend us back some of the money that we have sent them and this has made them even wealthier. Now China is gobbling up U.S. real estate and U.S. assets at an astounding pace. "
Yah gottah love science and the ability to tinker with any model it can mess with: Some people want the power of God, while others are angels that care for the helpless ... it's a very weird balance!
That's fantastic. Seriously. We're getting some of our dollars back, and they get real estate that is safer than in the PRC. When the current regime breaks down in PRC and the crap hits the fan; these people can bail here. Better Toledo than Vancouver BC.
that their ability to print their fiat money may well be unlimited but that the public’s confidence in this fiat money certainly is not.
confidence doesn't have anything to do with it in the current wageslave regime.
Weimar hyperinflation worked because workers had the power to demand higher wages.
Our wage structure is pretty flying pretty far above the global norm still, so there's going to be more retrenchment for the paycheck economy should inflation in necessities continue.
Farm, energy, health, and security sectors may in fact inflate. Fat lot of good it will do the remaining 70% of the workforce.
"or will he be using our money markets and bank deposits? "
If you had invested according to my loss-diversification newsletter you wouldn't need to worry about having any money left in your money market or bank deposit accounts for Big Ben to take.
But nooooooooooooooooo you want all the worry of having money to lose.
I firmly believe that NAR, wall street, every insurance company, pension, bank, realtor, would all sell their souls to Communism, if it meant they could live better off than you and me ... which seems so anti-Communist and off the mark of the reality of corrupted Capitalism.
"A Chinese group known as "Sino-Michigan Properties LLC" has bought up 200 acres of land near the town of Milan, Michigan. Their plan is to construct a "China City" with artificial lakes, a Chinese cultural center and hundreds of housing units for Chinese citizens. Essentially, it would be a little slice of communist China dropped right into the heartland of America. This "China City" would be located about 40 minutes from both Detroit and Toledo, and it would be marketed to Chinese business people that want to start businesses in the United States."
Sounds like a win for both sides. Although calling China "communist" is an error; the PRC is now about as communist as Pavel Chichikov.
Their plan is to construct a "China City" with artificial lakes, a Chinese cultural center and hundreds of housing units for Chinese citizens. Essentially, it would be a little slice of communist China dropped right into the heartland of America.
Damned if that isn't a pretty straight trendline on stocks today. Not a panic selloff, just a sure and steady decline. Must be descending that wall of hope.
Early day tomorrow. Gotta beat the other traffic to the Hamptons.
So how in the world did we come to be so completely and totally dominated by China?
Whats this " We " shit...I don't own any corporation in China. But I bet our Congress critters do...Blame them not the sheeple who buy the products..Its the Bankers and Lobbyists and so on the reasons why China owns us.
Okay, Folks, Let's Put Aside Politics And Look At The Facts... [CHARTS] - Business Insider
Those are pretty interesting... especially the part where we're really not spending that much on infrastructure because all tax revenues are going to social programs.
Well...
If only we were running 20% deficits everything would be fine.
Of course if we have a recession this summer 20% deficits might be in the cards.
Based on the first four months of 2012, we're on pace for a $360 billion deficit this year; highest ever. Clearly the LA port traffic indicator is of limited value.
More like 40, going back to Nixon; a generation of Red Commie lovers, who are handing off the baton to China, while Generation Stupid focuses on their iPhones...
It's better than that, We have been Betrayed.
Our Politicians gave American owned Companies, tax breaks to move equipment over to China,
so they could make the things we bought on credit,
because we lost our paychecks,
because our factories moved.
My father-in-law says corruption there is as bad as he ever remembers it. It's every where and at every level nowadays. And he remembers the horrible corruption that was pretty instrumental in bringing the Communists to power in the first place.
Public service notice: if you're over 50 you can put an extra $5500 into your 401k over the normal limit...the IRS is calling this a "catch-up" rule. Implying that you can catch up to your post retirement needs. Pretty much benefits the well off as if you were already going to put $17K into the 401k; your paycheck is not shabby..
Based on the first four months of 2012, we're on pace for a $360 billion deficit this year; highest ever. Clearly the LA port traffic indicator is of limited value.
I prefer to think of it as an aircraft carrier every other week. Easier to grasp and closer to the truth.
We only have one more employment report before the August meeting, and we'll probably hit 8.3 or perhaps 8.4%. 8.5% would be a lock, but I dont think we need that. Another near 100k print and rising UE, we're good for QEx launch, fo sho.
Actually ... based on current Gallup polling, U3 will likely fall on July 6th. Maybe only .1 ... but I'm thinking it's 50/50 that it will drop two tenths to 8.0. There will be (gasp) rejoicing from the admin (shudder) all kinds of rhetoric explaining why the numbers cannot be trusted, and then it will be largely ignored ...
In truth ... U3 is basically flat at the moment .. and will stay basically flat for the summer. The next actual sign of trend will be seen when the reports come out beginning of Sept, Oct and November, (as the housing quagmire ceases to significantly impact the SA factors).
Of course, the drop to 8.0 with the next report (if I am right) will be driven half by job gains and half by labor force stagnation (or shrinkage), which will get plenty of press in exactly the way the massive (642,000) increase in labor force last month didn't get any.
In truth ... U3 is basically flat at the moment .. and will stay basically flat for the summer.
EMRATIO. U-3 is not accurately reflecting employment conditions. Not that it is being gamed or less accurate, just that what it measures is not as important in a protracted downturn.
"Mr. Potter has played a prominent role in the New York Fed’s financial stability efforts, including contributing to the design of the 2009 U.S. bank stress tests and as a member of the international Macroeconomic Assessment Group that supported the Basel Committee’s work to strengthen bank capital standards. Mr. Potter was also a key contributor to the 2011 Financial Stability Oversight Council’s Annual Report on Financial Stability, its first annual report."
MOODY’S TO UNVEIL BANK DOWNGRADE AT 4PM: CNBC
CNBC SAYS B OF A L-T DEBT RATING TO BE CUT BY 1 NOTCH BY MOODYS
CNBC SAYS CITI, JPM AND GS L-T DEBT RATING WILL BE CUT 2 NOTCH
MOODY’S TO UNVEIL BANK DOWNGRADE AT 4PM: CNBC
CNBC SAYS B OF A L-T DEBT RATING TO BE CUT BY 1 NOTCH BY MOODYS
CNBC SAYS CITI, JPM AND GS L-T DEBT RATING WILL BE CUT 2 NOTCH
I dont recall if they do it more often than others, but they are more successful at it than others (which in the case of Sandusky, I must say, is good news).
The most famous example of a claim is the apocryphal story that artist Frederic Remington telegrammed Hearst to tell him all was quiet in Cuba and "There will be no war." Hearst responded "Please remain. You furnish the pictures and I'll furnish the war." Historians now believe that no such telegrams ever were sent.
we ditched it 8 years ago and have never regretted it.
I think 80 million old people will be saying something like that in the next 5 years ... saying to each other, I hate the internet and I'm not buying a F'ing new iPad...
I think 80 million old people will be saying something like that in the next 5 years ... saying to each other, I hate the internet and I'm not buying a F'ing new iPad...
And miss their 20% off before 4:30 Golden Corral coupon? Not.
U-3 is not accurately reflecting employment conditions. Not that it is being gamed or less accurate, just that what it measures is not as important in a protracted downturn.
Not that I disagree with the inherent flaws and limitations of U3 ... but I believe Emp/Pop ratio is an even worse metric ... because it can only possibly be useful in a society with a totally static cultural and demographic norm ... (of which we have neither).
The Emp/Pop ratio went steadily upward from the 60s until about 2000 pushed by the steadily expanding influx of women into the workforce. (Sorry, but I don't think it necessarily follows that going from a predominant single-earner economy to a predominant two-earner economy necessarily implies that the economy is inherently better).
And since 2000, the demographic shift to retirees was sending the E/P ratio down regardless of economic conditions.
Mind you ... in the short term ... if you take into account changing demographics, (the boomer exodus) and adjust for that it can be useful. But, you can compare 8% U3 in 1972 to 8% U3 in 2012 and you're mostly looking at the same thing --- how many people who want jobs cannot find one. But, you cannot tell anything comparing the current 58.6 ratio to the 57.1 ratio of 1953 in terms of relative economic conditions.
Re: the death of banks and paper money collapse and the future of money. Always check the author's bona fides and track record:
Detlev S. Schlichter is an author and Austrian School Economist. His first book Paper Money Collapse – The Folly of Elastic Money and the Coming Monetary Breakdown was published by John Wiley & Sons in September 2011. Mr. Schlichter has appeared as a commentator on television and radio (Sky News, Reuters TV, BBC Radio 4′s Start The Week) and his editorials have been published by The Wall Street Journal, TheStreet.com and mises.org. He is a senior fellow at the Cobden Centre, London, a free-market think tank devoted to issues of money and banking.
Mr. Schlichter had a 19-year career in investment management. He worked at J.P. Morgan & Co. (1990-1998), Merrill Lynch Investment Managers (1998-2001) and Western Asset Management Co. (2001-2009). During his career Mr. Schlichter has overseen billions in assets under management for institutional clients from around the world. He left the industry in 2009 to focus exclusively on his first book, Paper Money Collapse.
Mr. Schlichter holds a degree in economics (Diplom-Ökonom) from Ruhr-Universität Bochum, Germany. He lives with his family in Hampstead, London.
See: McLuhan pointed to the light bulb as a clear demonstration of this concept. A light bulb does not have content in the way that a newspaper has articles or a television has programs, yet it is a medium that has a social effect; that is, a light bulb enables people to create spaces during nighttime that would otherwise be enveloped by darkness. He describes the light bulb as a medium without any content. McLuhan states that "a light bulb creates an environment by its mere presence."[55] More controversially, he postulated that content had little effect on society—in other words, it did not matter if television broadcasts children's shows or violent programming, to illustrate one example—the effect of television on society would be identical.[56] He noted that all media have characteristics that engage the viewer in different ways; for instance, a passage in a book could be reread at will, but a movie had to be screened again in its entirety to study any individual part of it.
Kinda out-dated, but old people of the future will fall into the age old pattern of being stubborn and unwilling to change stuff
I hate the internet and I'm not buying a F'ing new iPad...
Ever spent any time in a nursing home? My mother spent the last two years of her life not able to get out of bed. There is nothing on TV & her eyesight was failing anyhow. It's getting easier to imagine myself in that same position and a tool like an iPad sounds wonderful. I can hold it close enough to see if my vision is gong. I can enlarge it a lot if I need to. I can crank the volume of whatever music I enjoy as far as I need to so I can hear it. If I can still type I don't need paper and pencil to write a letter, etc. Seems to me it would be worth a lot to have some choice besides staring at the ceiling.
A reasonable read on McLuhan is Neil Postman's Ammusing Ourselves to Death ... but beware of hardcore McLuahanites; they're ideologues like any other and prone to overstatement and lack of objective observation.
Yeah, people from Philly look like they were fed
I found this enjoyable comment in a Telegraph article:
" Spanish banks who needed 100 billion a week ago, now need only 60 billion. A couple more weeks of this and they will be solvent, and a short time after that they will be able to match the Greeks for unencumbered wealth."
Hey waitaminute:
Gold, silver stumble amid weak macroeconomic data - MarketWatch
I thought that gold was the doomsday metal?
This is better than watching a Cartman marathon.
Re: "U.S. house prices rose 0.8 percent"
==> Yup, all those aging houses filled with old people are increasing in value at a rapid pace:
"U.S. house prices rose 0.8 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from March to April, according to the Federal Housing Finance Agency’s monthly House Price Index. ... For the 12 months ending in April, U.S. prices rose 3.0 percent."
Now rising home prices are a bad economic indicator....right. Like cheap gas prices and low inflation?
Goldman Short Call on S&P Trips Up Market | The Exchange - Yahoo! Finance
KarmaPolice wrote:
Is Barack Obama morphing into Dick Cheney? | Energy Bulletin
Got back just in time for the
JP wrote:
Oh my F'ing hedge -- I thought the model had this factored in ...
I'd hate be holding American, Asian or EU financial instruments over the weekend ...
adornosghost wrote:
Hmmm- maybe I should ask the Talking Snake about this--
...
a few years back I was in some of the deepest jungle in Cambodia. that day I explained or tried to explain
to some of the villagers (Theravada Buddhists, no doubt) the death and resurrection of Jesus Christ.
they thought that was the craziest story they had ever heard... a man returning from the dead?
Duke of Con Dao wrote:
I think the story is losing its power these days... banks and other businesses favored by governments pull that
all the time.
ResistanceIsFeudal wrote:
We have a word for that process. You know that, right?
leading indicators made up of 10 indicators ... the biggest month over month improvement came from building permits ... -.17%(april) to +.21%(may) ... permits has to be about the easiest thing to pocket ... until the smoke clears.
yagij wrote:
Capitalism. Like, duh!
Sorry the paper price means very little to me...I like Gold.
Graph: 30-Year Conventional Mortgage Rate (MORTG) - FRED - St. Louis Fed
ResistanceIsFeudal wrote:
I think it had some pull with ignorant pastorals wandering around the desert, and telling themselves embarrassing creation myths, but beyond that not so much.
File under "I'll pay the tax if I can keep doing what I've been doing"
BofA Fined $2.8 Million for Overbilling 95,000 Accounts - Bloomberg
BREAKING
Senate approves sweeping five-year farm bill
Duke of Con Dao wrote:
They obviously don't get HBO.
BREAKING
Senate approves sweeping five-year farm bill
....... and lanquish in House?
Comrade Troyski wrote:
Doesn't that negate the reason behind this blog (again)
I can only imagine the filth that is in that Bill...IE: Drones....Idiots.
KarmaPolice wrote:
most people just think it is a better(not ideal) reference for a value metric.
In 1935 oil was about $1, gold $35, so 1 oz gold or $35 dollars bought 35 barrels of oil.
Today 1oz of gold buys 20 barrels and $35 dollars buys 0.43 barrels.
adornosghost wrote:
From the article:
"President Obama claims he seeks to build a more peaceful world, but copying the Cheney energy blueprint is bound to produce the exact opposite."
Not necessarily. But as far as I am concerned, the Saudis can choke on their oil.
If stocks implode we're gonna have a bad time.
shill wrote:
Can't be worse than injecting pension changes inside of the Highway Trust Fund ...
Pension funding changes included in Senate highway bill - 03/7/12
I need to look at that filthy bill ... from those F'ing corrupted bastards that will soon be voted back into office, so they can do God's work ...
U.S. Economy, Market Now Facing a Monetary Cliff | Breakout - Yahoo! Finance
The markets want their QE3 and they want it now!
shill wrote:
Yep Gotta keep those dead cows from blowing in the summer heat and roadkill from snarling traffic.
"If stocks implode we're gonna have a bad time. "
Whewww!! Lucky Ben is keeping stocks up then.
Hey don't blame me I voted for Stupid
-200 print.
where the fuck is
?
ac wrote:
Just relax, the pension legislation in the pension post, alludes to the fact that corporations will soon have their very own shadow earnings recharge effect, made possible by under-funding all American pensions, and hence earning will continue to rise, just as will bonuses:
arthur_dent wrote:
Some people used to think that women, cattle, and shiny beads were value metrics as well.
Eric wrote:
>
Markets haven't opened yet...
Good here Eric, but the cliffs edge is nearer.
Annaly Capital Management Inc., NLY Stock Quote - (NYSE) NLY, Annaly Capital Management Inc. Stock Price
American Capital Agency Corp., AGNC Stock Quote - (NASDAQ) AGNC, American Capital Agency Corp. Stock Price
Two Harbors Investment Corp., TWO Stock Quote - (NYSE) TWO, Two Harbors Investment Corp. Stock Price
"where the fuck is"
Now you've done it.
That's the Eric "Hammer of Doom" move on
Cinco-X wrote:
Stat.
If stocks implode we're gonna have a bad time.
:handincookiejar:
Ben to the White courtesy phone.
We need a bailout rumor and/or emergency rate cut STAT!!
As a Side note...the walls are saying an SPO today for AGNC...we shall see.
charlie gasparino is STARING at his phone ...
shill wrote:
I gave my ballot to my college-bound daughter, who was filled with hope for change, and she voted twice for Stupid -- and now sees, that after 4 years of stupidity, the wild goose chase of StupidiCare was a total
that diverted all of Stupid's time and resources for his stupid F'ing pet project -- instead of Stupid actually F'ing focusing on the economy and job creation, in addition to putting wall street crooks into prison .. and there was other shit, but my mind can't take this anymore ....
MaryAnn wrote:
Ex-nurse?
Citi: America's Aging Population Is Bullish For Stocks - Business Insider
so is anyone surprised that the hope for a QE injection was the only thing supporting equity prices?
black dog wrote:
Maybe he'll jump out of a window?
LMAO! Love it Doc...that was priceless. So I guess you won't be voting in " Hope and change " again lol. Not the O-Romney will make is all better...He won't
The NEW PPT product line.
YouTube - Sour Flush Candy Powder Toilets with Plunger Pops!
Good morning!
iCoffee
YouTube - TopBrewer Coffee faucet by Scanomat - with iPhone control
"Maybe he'll jump out of a window? "
And land on Maria B. ?
black dog wrote:
poic wrote:
Has she done any porn?
KarmaPolice wrote:
America's aging population is actually heading toward the age where they will start saving more aggressively.
Read more: Citi: America's Aging Population Is Bullish For Stocks - Business Insider
I'm laughing too hard to type.
"Has she done any porn? "
Don't know, but looks like she's been eating corn pone.
arthur_dent wrote:
There are no doubt some, but most here have recognized this for some time...
Futures
The colors man, the colors
maria "let them eat my cake" bartiromo ...
Citi: America's Aging Population Is Bullish For Stocks - Business Insider
Of course they are. They get zero return from fixed investments. They're setting themselves up for misery if things go south. (And I'm not saying they are.)
Cream cheese shortage explains all of the decline in the Philly Fed, and then some. So, this is really a good number.
There are no doubt some
3 weeks?
3 days?
3 hours?
till (insider) investors assured ... via leaks ... QE3 a given
shill wrote:
I'm hoping to change the odds of me being picked for jury duty and not voting, or giving my ballot to anyone:
A court selects potential jurors from a list of names that are often obtained from lists of people with drivers licenses in the state and people who are registered to vote in the state.
Tsunami wave of crime ahead; let the voter beware....
Don't be Gluten me man..
All we need now, for QEIII is a rise in unemployment to 8.5%.
Whats up UVXY
ProShares Ultra VIX Short-Term Futures ETF, UVXY Fund Quote - (NAR) UVXY, ProShares Ultra VIX Short-Term Futures ETF Fund Price
Long road to that 52 week high....
Looks like he is saying the 34-39 yr olds are what have really historically caused stock prices to go up? Oh, and don't worry about the retirees, they can't afford to NOT be in high risk assets so they won't be selling their stocks?
Too many newsletters to read them all....
median boomer is 57. So ca. 2020 there will be a 1:1 balance between boomer saver and boomer dissaver.
I don't know the relative weight of contributions vs. cash-outs, but perhaps it favors the savers.
We only have one more employment report before the August meeting, and we'll probably hit 8.3 or perhaps 8.4%. 8.5% would be a lock, but I dont think we need that. Another near 100k print and rising UE, we're good for QEx launch, fo sho.
shill wrote:
(counts buzzwords).
Uh, Bingo!
An unnamed source from the European Union states that the US Federal Reserve would back stop the banks of Greece, Spain, and Italy.
Markets rally 500 points.
Big Ben holds a news conference to refute the rumor, the market finishes the day 10 points off its high.
there was a massive increase in the real economy 1980-2000:
Graph: Gross Domestic Product, 1 Decimal (GDP)*1000000/All Employees: Total nonfarm (PAYEMS) - FRED - St. Louis Fed
Unfornately, adding in leverage (red):
FRED Graph - FRED - St. Louis Fed
shows the 1980s and 2000s productivity increases were accomplished via debt take-on, I think.
Govt. Cheese wrote:
thankfully, the Fed is back-stoppped by fairy dust.
Housing:
Cash sales are thus excluded from the calculation. This is a broken indicator. Useless.
arthur_dent wrote:
"Fairy dust" == "the ground up bones of our children and grandchildren."
"job creation", LOL.
The 2000s was a massive pump & dump. There is no recovery from that, or, more precisely, back to that.
St. Louis Fed: Series: CMDEBT, Household Sector: Liabilites: Household Credit Market Debt Outstanding
Comrade Troyski wrote:
I think this chart is much more realistic. It still shows a significant increase though:
Industrial Production
Notice that this graph coincides with employment numbers whereas the GDP numbers do not.
KidPsych wrote:
Re: "Keep in mind that the past three years actually have been very equity friendly and behavioral psychology argues that people are most affected by their most recent experiences. Additionally, baby boomers do not have the luxury of moving their stock holdings into very low yielding fixed income instruments and have much left for their own retirements.
==> yah, you got about 80 million "average" people that are going to be in a liquidity freeze, and their magic kids are going to have magic jobs making widgets that are in great demand, from a population bse that will be working at walmart. Within this period of shock and awe, the parents homes will go down in value, along with their nest eggs, and the kids are gonna be screaming like crazy to bet all their magic money on bullshit wall street hype -- connected to high frequency churned derivative bets. Meanwhile mom and Pop will be betting their privatized Social Security "income" on hedge strategies that will help them piss away all their cash flow. The good news is, after Ma & Pa die, the house can probably be rented out, unless the magic kids wanna add that to the ever-expanding housing inventory ... and other stuff, but I'm laughing too hard at the article
Business - Derek Thompson - Income Inequality Is Not a Myth - The Atlantic
My numerous and various short positions remain underwater despite substantial gains today. I hope Yerps banks have placed large bets on their own demise. Worked great for US banks...
we should be bouncing toward
any moment now, as soon as the PPT finishes their last martini and walks out on the tab. Of course, they might go for another round. Either way, they will drink and slink.
Comrade Troyski wrote:
One line is current $, the other is a ratio of two current $ stats, thus closer to "real" $.
Not sure that says much.
arthur_dent wrote:
YouTube - Bruce Springsteen - Spirit in the Night - Live 1973 in Los Angeles
picosec wrote:
Is also "share of GDP per worker" instead of per person.
Russia Buys 0.5 Million Ounces and Bank of Korea "Needs To Buy More" Gold
Doc Holiday wrote:
Weren't those pensions looted decades ago, along with the SSA "trust fund?
I need to buy me an ISLAND! Gold is for sissies.
The death of banks – and the future of money
http://papermoneycollapse.com/2012/06/the-death-of-banks-and-the-future-of-money/
Great read, just a few things I have been reading the last hour.
Blackhalo wrote:
Go with what works. Status quo or bust.
Rob Dawg wrote:
Try this, where COL is accounted for.
FRED Graph - FRED - St. Louis Fed
Looks like through the early '80s the growth was without the benefit of debt, since then it has been lockstep with debt.
GDD9000 wrote:
Doctor Moreau?
Anybody up for guaranteed RE returns?
http://images.craigslist.org/5G45K45Hf3E83na3Iac6k1a755764e722130e.jpg
just up your expected rate of return
here's a first crack in the SWIFT system
China's Central Bank Willing To Share $3 Trillion - Forbes
"just up your expected rate of return"
Like Colt .45 - works every time
arthur_dent wrote:
NTTAWWT
shill wrote:
best point in the article.
pavel.chichikov wrote:
redacted ... too weird///
Agreed, valid point..He gets it.
Damned if that isn't a pretty straight trendline on stocks today. Not a panic selloff, just a sure and steady decline. Must be descending that wall of hope.
Texas woman hit with $1.3 million-plus electric bill | The Sideshow - Yahoo! News
More proof of global warming?
Confidence, or the lack of it, is driving this crisis.
shill wrote:
and like everybody else, he can describe a set of circumstances, but he can't tell us exactly when the repudiation will accelerate
volker the viking wrote:
This is what Our Politicians and World Class over educated Economis have done for use:
" We have begged them to lend us back some of the money that we have sent them and this has made them even wealthier. Now China is gobbling up U.S. real estate and U.S. assets at an astounding pace. "
Will Toledo, Ohio Be The First Major American City To Be Owned By China?
Oh I agree, it is our fault as well, mindless trust in a manmade system.
Amazingly enough, FacePlant is
-- irrational exuberance is highly focused today.
Doc Holiday wrote:
The model of a brutal and unethical study that isn't actually a war crime.
Former Idealist wrote:
Yep, people are confident that their wallets are empty, their credit lines are maxed, and their homes are underwater.
Bad Dawg Bobby wrote:
What's a little insidious Communism here and there gonna hurt, this is America, and we believe in freedom, right?
YouTube - Clarke and Dawe - The European Crisis
Bad Dawg Bobby wrote:
Perhaps we can interest them in Detroit?
When we least expect it..as always.
Lots of interest in the markets today.
is broke - no prices or quotes.
Yahoo! Finance - Business Finance, Stock Market, Quotes, News
Doc Holiday wrote:
We have family that comes from Toledo. You can't get much more mid-west than Toledo, can you?
pavel.chichikov wrote:
Yah gottah love science and the ability to tinker with any model it can mess with:
Some people want the power of God, while others are angels that care for the helpless ... it's a very weird balance!
Doc Holiday wrote:
It is enough to make you want to Cry.
Does Ben even have enough short term debt left to fund Operation Twist or will he be using our money markets and bank deposits?
picosec wrote:
It all looks good over at google:
Company Comparison - Google Finance
Former Idealist wrote:
Giant hands come out of the sky, hold you aloft by the ankles, and shake.
TJ and The Bear wrote:
They can turn it into a Chinese Military Retreat for good behavior.
Trunabout is fair play.
picosec wrote:
Google Finance
That's fantastic. Seriously. We're getting some of our dollars back, and they get real estate that is safer than in the PRC. When the current regime breaks down in PRC and the crap hits the fan; these people can bail here. Better Toledo than Vancouver BC.
confidence doesn't have anything to do with it in the current wageslave regime.
Weimar hyperinflation worked because workers had the power to demand higher wages.
Our wage structure is pretty flying pretty far above the global norm still, so there's going to be more retrenchment for the paycheck economy should inflation in necessities continue.
Farm, energy, health, and security sectors may in fact inflate. Fat lot of good it will do the remaining 70% of the workforce.
Former Idealist wrote:
Onbly If He Wants Too (!) We Couldn't stop him.
pavel.chichikov wrote:
Gotta love a system so advanced that you don't even have to grab your own ankles.
"or will he be using our money markets and bank deposits? "
If you had invested according to my loss-diversification newsletter you wouldn't need to worry about having any money left in your money market or bank deposit accounts for Big Ben to take.
But nooooooooooooooooo you want all the worry of having money to lose.
Bad Dawg Bobby wrote:
I firmly believe that NAR, wall street, every insurance company, pension, bank, realtor, would all sell their souls to Communism, if it meant they could live better off than you and me ... which seems so anti-Communist and off the mark of the reality of corrupted Capitalism.
Crap.
"A Chinese group known as "Sino-Michigan Properties LLC" has bought up 200 acres of land near the town of Milan, Michigan. Their plan is to construct a "China City" with artificial lakes, a Chinese cultural center and hundreds of housing units for Chinese citizens. Essentially, it would be a little slice of communist China dropped right into the heartland of America. This "China City" would be located about 40 minutes from both Detroit and Toledo, and it would be marketed to Chinese business people that want to start businesses in the United States."
Sounds like a win for both sides. Although calling China "communist" is an error; the PRC is now about as communist as Pavel Chichikov.
Okay, Folks, Let's Put Aside Politics And Look At The Facts... [CHARTS] - Business Insider
Bad Dawg Bobby wrote:
so far, who knows....
Former Idealist wrote:
I think he has 187B now and another 100B that is supposed to flow into the Fed between now and the end of the year, so 287B IIRC
rosethorn wrote:
Believe this will actually happen? I don't.
Doc Holiday wrote:
Toledo? Ohio?
doubt anybody but drew Carey would notice
TJ and The Bear wrote:
Early day tomorrow. Gotta beat the other
traffic to the Hamptons.
So what are the odds that Sandusky eats a gun before having to serve time?
shill wrote:
and in the blink of an eye
One purchase at a time -- over ~20 years.
Trade in Goods with China
Whats this " We " shit...I don't own any corporation in China. But I bet our Congress critters do...Blame them not the sheeple who buy the products..Its the Bankers and Lobbyists and so on the reasons why China owns us.
Bristol Palin says no sex until marriage - The Clicker
um.... bit late for that, honey.
volker the viking wrote:
"...and it's gone."
Oh, all you ice people. Get it while it is cheap: Futures Heating Oil Chart Weekly
CB's buying gold when they used to buy US debt. Change you can believe in...
Becoming a "virgin" again...? - Yahoo! Answers
pavel.chichikov wrote:
Cheap crap from Communists who have poisoned our society.
Greed by shareholders who support corporations that rely on Communism
Stupidity of the masses, who are forced to shop at walmart, in order to save pennies (part of American growth).
Corrupted politicians who help devalue America through policies, which contribute to Communist growth (sorta treason actually).
Corporations that use the distortion of growth to manipulate share values ... etc
I have noticed, lately, that on big down market days, the market summary on Yahoo Finance gets hidden.
Cinco-X wrote:
Those are pretty interesting... especially the part where we're really not spending that much on infrastructure because all tax revenues are going to social programs.
Well...
If only we were running 20% deficits everything would be fine.
Of course if we have a recession this summer 20% deficits might be in the cards.
Based on the first four months of 2012, we're on pace for a $360 billion deficit this year; highest ever. Clearly the LA port traffic indicator is of limited value.
Comrade Troyski wrote:
More like 40, going back to Nixon; a generation of Red Commie lovers, who are handing off the baton to China, while Generation Stupid focuses on their iPhones...
eh, better not
Former Idealist wrote:
uh, huh, wonder what they know?
SocGen: Gold Could Surge Over 500% - Business Insider
Yancey Ward wrote:
?
I see like six graphs across the top, all
Doc Holiday have you actually been to China?
I hate to break it to you but it's a far cry from Communist in China nowadays.
It's more of a wholy corrupt quasi Capitalist system right now.
Comrade Troyski wrote:
It's better than that, We have been Betrayed.
Our Politicians gave American owned Companies, tax breaks to move equipment over to China,
so they could make the things we bought on credit,
because we lost our paychecks,
because our factories moved.
Doc Holiday wrote:
"National level vertically integrated C^3 mercantilists" not "communists."
It's more of a wholy corrupt quasi Capitalist system right now.
You mean things can go from bad to worse?
oil WTI at 78 and change
which comes first?
$55.00? or $90.00?
Eric wrote:
Back now, last 4 before that over the hour, not there.
Rob Dawg wrote:
I always like to look at the root of a problem and not just the flower bud that rises so far above the surface.
"You mean things can go from bad to worse? "
My father-in-law says corruption there is as bad as he ever remembers it. It's every where and at every level nowadays. And he remembers the horrible corruption that was pretty instrumental in bringing the Communists to power in the first place.
He thinks it's actually that bad nowadays.
Is there a pure political regime now, or is everything a hybrid?
Seems we've taken the worst of all possible systems and combined them.
YAY! 1st day of Obama's "Slummer of Recovery"
just curious, where was the computer you're typing that on manufactured?
IIRC even the TRS-80s and Apple IIs of my youth were made in Malaysia or something.
Noticed that too.
Public service notice: if you're over 50 you can put an extra $5500 into your 401k over the normal limit...the IRS is calling this a "catch-up" rule. Implying that you can catch up to your post retirement needs. Pretty much benefits the well off as if you were already going to put $17K into the 401k; your paycheck is not shabby..
oil WTI at 78 and change
at what $ mark do the oil patch workers start getting pink slips?
My father-in-law says corruption there is as bad as he ever remembers it.
I've heard people say that's why China will never dominate.
We may get a bonus
today
Comrade Troyski wrote:
That's not a fair question, because my old type writer doesn't have a USB port
Please stop all the positive talk about
Every time that happens on hcn
spends the last half hour kicking
in the nuts with brass-toed boots.
Hovnian gives a wilder ride than Maria's bedstand cowboy: Hovnanian Enterprises, Inc. Cla Stock Chart | HOV Interactive Chart - Yahoo! Finance
poic wrote:
Good god, your FIL remembers the Kuomintang? How old is he!?
"There is a real flight-to-quality today. FB is up 0.5%"
rosethorn wrote:
I prefer to think of it as an aircraft carrier every other week. Easier to grasp and closer to the truth.
Doc Holiday wrote:
TSA isn't the only game in town, I can get my sex locally.
Oil 78.58 -2.87 -3.52%
Best Quote ever: " Ben why have you forsaken us "
GDD9000 wrote:
Actually ... based on current Gallup polling, U3 will likely fall on July 6th. Maybe only .1 ... but I'm thinking it's 50/50 that it will drop two tenths to 8.0. There will be (gasp) rejoicing from the admin (shudder) all kinds of rhetoric explaining why the numbers cannot be trusted, and then it will be largely ignored ...
In truth ... U3 is basically flat at the moment .. and will stay basically flat for the summer. The next actual sign of trend will be seen when the reports come out beginning of Sept, Oct and November, (as the housing quagmire ceases to significantly impact the SA factors).
Of course, the drop to 8.0 with the next report (if I am right) will be driven half by job gains and half by labor force stagnation (or shrinkage), which will get plenty of press in exactly the way the massive (642,000) increase in labor force last month didn't get any.
Slow_Roll_Troll wrote:
closing +150? Could happen.....
(waits for Charlie Gasbag's rumor...)
Oil 78.58 -2.87 -3.52%
Picqued oil.
"Good god, your FIL remembers the Kuomintang? How old is he!? "
He was a child when the Communists came to power
It's not all bad, the muppets stock yields are going up!
do we throw in MISSION ACCOMPLISHED banners?
Non-whiz specification; Back of the line.
JHC, how long can 15 minutes of fame last.
JP wrote:
You know she has a reality show that debuted this week, right?
shill wrote:
"us" are definately NOT his Bankster Buddies.
Oh tell me its not so. Pleeeeze gawd noooooooooo
NFW
"You know she has a reality show that debuted this week, right? "
We should have an hcn get together so we can all watch her show together and afterwards discuss how it's changed our lives in a positive way.
Those " Thingamajigs " are on sale.
US Dollar Index Future - Spot Price, DXY Index Quote - (NASDAQ) DXY, US Dollar Index Future - Spot Price Index Price
Nice
's
Eric wrote:
do narcissists usually commit suicide?
wow, a regulator that actually works against the banks
sorry, not in the USA though
Flaherty clamps down on mortgage rules to cool overheating market - The Globe and Mail
Eric wrote:
Mulligan.
Now I'm going to have to decide between watching Snooki or Bristol.
Decisions, decisions...
Firemane wrote:
EMRATIO. U-3 is not accurately reflecting employment conditions. Not that it is being gamed or less accurate, just that what it measures is not as important in a protracted downturn.
Mike in Long Island wrote:
way: Bristol Palin: Life's a Tripp - Episodes, Video & Schedule - myLifetime.com
poic wrote:
If they'd just do a lesbian porno, problem solved!
I miss the old days, when we are all rich:
Dow soars to 4-year high on manufacturing growth - May. 1, 2012 [May 1, 2012: 4:38 PM ET]
The Dow Jones industrial average (INDU) rose 66 points, or 0.5%, to close at 13,279.40, the highest since December 2007.
What happened?
Rob Dawg wrote:
COWBOY UP!
New York Fed Names Simon Potter Head of Markets Group - Federal Reserve Bank of New York
"Mr. Potter has played a prominent role in the New York Fed’s financial stability efforts, including contributing to the design of the 2009 U.S. bank stress tests and as a member of the international Macroeconomic Assessment Group that supported the Basel Committee’s work to strengthen bank capital standards. Mr. Potter was also a key contributor to the 2011 Financial Stability Oversight Council’s Annual Report on Financial Stability, its first annual report."
Trained in
Save a breaker box... ride a cowboy
Eric wrote:
Can't unsee.
bearly wrote:
YouTube - Rawhide - The Blues Brothers (5/9) Movie CLIP (1980) HD
YouTube - Al Bundy Blind
MOODY’S TO UNVEIL BANK DOWNGRADE AT 4PM: CNBC
CNBC SAYS B OF A L-T DEBT RATING TO BE CUT BY 1 NOTCH BY MOODYS
CNBC SAYS CITI, JPM AND GS L-T DEBT RATING WILL BE CUT 2 NOTCH
That can mean only one thing: QE3 FTW
Eric wrote:
I can see a move towards consolidation.
comrade mike wrote:
Wow (!)
Eric wrote:
Like trolls the best response is probably to ignore. 700 channels and nothing on.
Rob Dawg wrote:
I've Noticed.
Nanoo-Nanoo wrote:
Such a wrong wrong place to use the "tiny fist of fury."
Time for
to work his magic.
"If they'd just do a lesbian porno, problem solved!"
Puts the Nooki into Snooki.
Rob Dawg wrote:
my TV ignore list looks like this:
*
Rob Dawg wrote:
Can Gold get a ratings downgrade?
Rob Dawg wrote:
I thought it was spot on ....
poic wrote:
Can't spell JWow without "wow".
Sorry I didn't ditch it years ago...3 weeks strong no TV and I haven't missed a dam thing.
Best money I ever saved.
Bad Dawg Bobby wrote:
Eureka and Lost Girl justify the second tier "premium" cable purchase. That and BBC America with Top Gear.
:btfd:
keep stackin'
How does CNBC know?
Wow (!)
really
O's former OMB director orszag works for citi i think ... giving them "protection" ... so i thought ...
do narcissists usually commit suicide?
I dont recall if they do it more often than others, but they are more successful at it than others (which in the case of Sandusky, I must say, is good news).
Teleprompter Yo!
rosethorn wrote:
probably from watching Santelli frontrun the news in the pit.
Losing Faith in American Institutions - NYTimes.com
the increase in support for the military is frightening.
rosethorn wrote:
Yellow journalism - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
The most famous example of a claim is the apocryphal story that artist Frederic Remington telegrammed Hearst to tell him all was quiet in Cuba and "There will be no war." Hearst responded "Please remain. You furnish the pictures and I'll furnish the war." Historians now believe that no such telegrams ever were sent.
shill wrote:
we ditched it 8 years ago and have never regretted it.
the increase in support for the military is frightening.
Seven Days in June can't be much worse than what we got ... or will get
Eric wrote:
Could an infinite mind create a countably infinite series of finite minds each capable of frontrunning its predecessor?
Mitt Romney: Deficit Increaser | Stan Collender's Capital Gains and Games
socialism is coming.
Cheers
BTFD you idiot. Just buy the f---in dip
Ten minutes to get the hell out....
arthur_dent wrote:
I think 80 million old people will be saying something like that in the next 5 years ... saying to each other, I hate the internet and I'm not buying a F'ing new iPad...
Doc Holiday wrote:
Another one for the Freedom Farms, yo!
They better close this thing "off the lows"
Doc Holiday wrote:
And miss their 20% off before 4:30 Golden Corral coupon? Not.
yuan wrote:
GLOBALLY (!!!!!)
Rob Dawg wrote:
Not that I disagree with the inherent flaws and limitations of U3 ... but I believe Emp/Pop ratio is an even worse metric ... because it can only possibly be useful in a society with a totally static cultural and demographic norm ... (of which we have neither).
The Emp/Pop ratio went steadily upward from the 60s until about 2000 pushed by the steadily expanding influx of women into the workforce. (Sorry, but I don't think it necessarily follows that going from a predominant single-earner economy to a predominant two-earner economy necessarily implies that the economy is inherently better).
And since 2000, the demographic shift to retirees was sending the E/P ratio down regardless of economic conditions.
Mind you ... in the short term ... if you take into account changing demographics, (the boomer exodus) and adjust for that it can be useful. But, you can compare 8% U3 in 1972 to 8% U3 in 2012 and you're mostly looking at the same thing --- how many people who want jobs cannot find one. But, you cannot tell anything comparing the current 58.6 ratio to the 57.1 ratio of 1953 in terms of relative economic conditions.
Re: the death of banks and paper money collapse and the future of money. Always check the author's bona fides and track record:
Detlev S. Schlichter is an author and Austrian School Economist. His first book Paper Money Collapse – The Folly of Elastic Money and the Coming Monetary Breakdown was published by John Wiley & Sons in September 2011. Mr. Schlichter has appeared as a commentator on television and radio (Sky News, Reuters TV, BBC Radio 4′s Start The Week) and his editorials have been published by The Wall Street Journal, TheStreet.com and mises.org. He is a senior fellow at the Cobden Centre, London, a free-market think tank devoted to issues of money and banking.
Mr. Schlichter had a 19-year career in investment management. He worked at J.P. Morgan & Co. (1990-1998), Merrill Lynch Investment Managers (1998-2001) and Western Asset Management Co. (2001-2009). During his career Mr. Schlichter has overseen billions in assets under management for institutional clients from around the world. He left the industry in 2009 to focus exclusively on his first book, Paper Money Collapse.
Mr. Schlichter holds a degree in economics (Diplom-Ökonom) from Ruhr-Universität Bochum, Germany. He lives with his family in Hampstead, London.
It's 4:00 and do you know where your fun coupons went?
POIC Trading Inc. ™
Current trends indicate an
close in the markets today.
This public announcement brought to you by the makers of
The death of the Tech Age is here and the implosion of Moore's Law:
Marshall McLuhan - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
See: McLuhan pointed to the light bulb as a clear demonstration of this concept. A light bulb does not have content in the way that a newspaper has articles or a television has programs, yet it is a medium that has a social effect; that is, a light bulb enables people to create spaces during nighttime that would otherwise be enveloped by darkness. He describes the light bulb as a medium without any content. McLuhan states that "a light bulb creates an environment by its mere presence."[55] More controversially, he postulated that content had little effect on society—in other words, it did not matter if television broadcasts children's shows or violent programming, to illustrate one example—the effect of television on society would be identical.[56] He noted that all media have characteristics that engage the viewer in different ways; for instance, a passage in a book could be reread at will, but a movie had to be screened again in its entirety to study any individual part of it.
Kinda out-dated, but old people of the future will fall into the age old pattern of being stubborn and unwilling to change stuff
yuan wrote:
this week could be the week
Through the low...we have a bleeder!
See Bernanke -- this is what happens when you don't print.
Let that be a lesson to you.
Rob Dawg wrote:
Offer a discount, and they'll group on anything
Mommy!
C-C-C-C-CIRCUIT BREAKER!
wheee!
Lobbyist Ben Dover wrote:
in the hoppah
ResistanceIsFeudal wrote:
Used to be the Decade,
Then "Could be this Year",
Then Month, Maybe mp and his Conjore Clock is more accurate than I thought.
Nanoo-Nanoo wrote:
world's ending again
ResistanceIsFeudal wrote:
Pah not even a double
yet
Doc Holiday wrote:
Ever spent any time in a nursing home? My mother spent the last two years of her life not able to get out of bed. There is nothing on TV & her eyesight was failing anyhow. It's getting easier to imagine myself in that same position and a tool like an iPad sounds wonderful. I can hold it close enough to see if my vision is gong. I can enlarge it a lot if I need to. I can crank the volume of whatever music I enjoy as far as I need to so I can hear it. If I can still type I don't need paper and pencil to write a letter, etc. Seems to me it would be worth a lot to have some choice besides staring at the ceiling.
A reasonable read on McLuhan is Neil Postman's Ammusing Ourselves to Death ... but beware of hardcore McLuahanites; they're ideologues like any other and prone to overstatement and lack of objective observation.
Rob Dawg wrote:
Tell me how that works. You take your one oz gold bar down to the oil station and load up 20 barrels in your pickup - right?
arthur_dent wrote:
I may soon get cable after not having it since '91... It's the only way to get good internet BW in my neck of the woods...
Eric wrote:
We did!!! Rally time!!!
Just remember Larry was once so poor that his girlfriend had to pay for his nose job.