Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims mostly unchanged, Four week average highest this year
Submitted by
CalculatedRisk on Thu, 06/21/2012 - 5:41am (224 comments)
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Don't panic, yet.
The new normal sucks. How many more negative reports do we need before we can say that, despite Herculean intervention, we are slowing down again.
Little bit worrisome.
More austerity will fix it.
When you read about 50 year old teachers and nurses that realize if they lose their job-they may never get another one, it makes the 387k number more human.
To be clear - the intervention has been of one type mostly since the ARRA monies have been spent. It's clear that there are no adults in Congress who appreciate the gravity of the situation - nevermind our President - all of whom are too focused on the election to realize or acknowledge the degree of suck for the average American.
Weekly for excitement. Moving average for data. Data says very weak employment summer.
Awful news...and Europe is still muddling along, a possible strike on Iran by Israel is still on the table, and we still have to resolve the "fiscal cliff" we are heading towards at the end of the year.
With all that, it's tough to be optimistic about the economy over the short term and medium term.
Mike in Long Island wrote:
Many are headed for advanced degrees now.
Countless billions will be spent in order to secure a $400k job, but that's big government for ya.
Nanoo-Nanoo wrote:
here's the graduate seminar: Rio roulette wheel reportedly hits seven straight 19s, and, yes, this is really rare - The Kats Report - Las Vegas Sun
Eric wrote:
My eyes! They BURN. gah.
LMFAO:
The German Economy's Tanking Too
but on Slate's front page, the headline actually reads "The German Economy's Taking Too".
"Lead me to your takers".
Should be back at 400k soon as the modest recovery continues.
Greece is ok.
"So when the charade of the Greek euro ends and there are no more bogeymen to blame, expect even more political upheaval and furor, not calm introspection and reform. Do not rule out a return to some sort of autocracy, whether left-wing in the style of Hugo Chavez or, more likely, a nationalist Hellenic strongman in the mold of Vladimir Putin. After all, democracy does not mark the end of history, but more often is a cyclical respite for prosperous peoples who can afford the niceties of parliamentary government and liberal tolerance. Right now, Greece is neither a prosperous nor a tolerant place."
Greece Alone and Broke -- Again | RealClearPolitics
A stunning view of job losses: http://i.dailymail.co.uk/i/pix/2012/06/19/article-2161488-13AE366F000005DC-365_964x541.jpg
The Titanic's situation remains calm, mostly unchanged.
Jobs are over rated. How's your credit?
Canadian Retail Sales (Apr) M/M -0.5% vs. Exp. 0.2% (Prev. 0.4%)
Canadian Retail Sales Less Autos (Apr) M/M -0.3% vs. Exp. 0.3% (Prev. 0.1%, Rev. 0.3%)
The Daily — Retail trade, April 2012
June Markit PMI flash report 52.9 vs 54.0 Consensus was 53.8
Suggests ISM PMI will be weak in June ... still expansion.
Like Fruit of the Loom CR...snaps back wash after wash.
Ah, the brilliant consensus, up to their usual stellar work.
CalculatedRisk wrote:
Noooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo! /Darth Vader
Rob Dawg wrote:
Wow. West Virginia is really well defined in that picture...
The new normal sucks.
Beats the alternative.
How many have given up trying, now working under the radar, or returned to their native country ?
The rest of that series is equally stunning - in terms of the way it's used to visualize data. Thanks km4 for linking that the other day.
Also - that shows "official" joblosses. If they used U6 part of that map would wash out with pure white.
I imagine there should be a lot more white than that which is shown in AZ and FL ...
Could be worse. Really.
always pigged lately,grrr
good morning y'all
A stunning view of job losses: http://i.dailymail.co.uk/i/pix/2012/06/19/article-2161488-13AE366F000005DC-365_964x541.jpg
Can you link the article that came from?
Mike in Long Island wrote:
Mr. Obvious here. If you don't get re-elected, it doesn't matter what you think or how you would vote to fix the problems.
The Titanic's situation remains calm, mostly unchanged.
And the band played on, youtube link version this time.
Nanoo-Nanoo wrote:
got my PHd
Wow Mike. However I think FL WOULD BE LESS white due to the under the table jobs.
u
Darth eVader: He is here.
Governor Tarkin: Obi-Ben Kenobi? What makes you think so?
Darth eVader: A tremor in the Farce. The last time I felt it was in the presence of his old master, Alan.
Governor Tarkin: Surely he must be dead by now.
Darth eVader: Don't underestimate the Farce.
Eric wrote:
But justice will be done! Not a single penny from hardworking germans will go to the periphery.
Secret corpse flights, pizza boy delivery routes and the daily commute: Stunning aerial images reveal never-before-seen side of America
| Mail Online
km4 originally linked it.
Also I caught your star kissed / chicken of the sea comment this morning while reading last nights thread. It made me laugh.
Nanoo-Nanoo wrote:
More money to banks will fix it.
Well my eyes see Ohio and California as the brightest stars on that map.
Outsider wrote:
Secret corpse flights, pizza boy delivery routes and the daily commute: Stunning aerial images reveal never-before-seen side of America
| Mail Online
Credi km4 I think.
shill wrote:
This is up here today: ekathimerini.com | Squeeze Greece or find funds yourselves, euro chief warns
Squeeze Greece or find funds yourselves, euro chief warns
The main thought:
'Wieser, head of the key Euro Working Group, said the choice facing currency partners was stark.
'Either you «stick to the fiscal targets and then you need additional measures» from Greece, the Brussels-based official said, or you change deadlines, in which case «you need extra money."
'Wieser, who chairs preparations for politically-charged meetings of the Eurogroup, said a deal worth 130 billion euros ($165 billion) in new loans agreed in March was no longer workable.
'"The economic environment has turned out to be even worse than assumed,» he said, warning that by August, the 17-nation eurozone and the IMF will have to «seriously re-negotiate how to get the thing back on track."'
Eric wrote:
FTA: The the odds of the 19s hitting seven times in succession as 3 billion to 1
Do I need more coffee?
1. There are 38 possible outcomes (36 + 2 zeros).
2. The odds of 19 for one outcome is then 1/38
3. The odds of 19 for 7 in a row is (1/38)^7 = 114,415,582,592 : 1
set it and forget it, long term horizons
So campaigning full time, all day, every day, while in office is acceptable? They've had years to work towards a solution and they did nothing. Frittered away the best opportunity they had to deliver what?
My ex-boss said it best - "never before has someone done so little with so much" in reference to Obama's leadership just after his election when he had both houses plus popular support. Oh well.
JP wrote:
The odds are for hitting "any" not just a particular number 7x.
Math is hard.
Jackdawracy wrote:
Don't be too fond of this technocratic terror you've spawned. The power to destroy a monetary union is insignificant compared to the power of the Farce.
Secret corpse flights, pizza boy delivery routes and the daily commute: Stunning aerial images reveal never-before-seen side of America
Doesn't say where they got their data from. Wonder if it's anywhere near accurate.
It is all ok. Summer of Recovery III is here. I expect to see sub 100K claims starting next week, and interest rates should start rising as the economy takes off for the moon.
Except or Texas, which I expect to break off and sink into the Gulf because of all the fat people who live there.
"Aerial images"? Or just statistical data plotted on a real-world map underlay, like Google Earth or WorldWind?
That's impossible because Oklahoma sucks.
Rob Dawg wrote:
Why is the Loan Star State (by far the most pawn shops of any state i'm aware of) always such a whipping boy?
JP wrote:
3 billion to 1 for any number 7 times.
114 bill to 1 for specifically 19.
"Aerial images"? Or just statistical data plotted on a real-world map underlay, like Google Earth or WorldWind?
GPS, so plotted.
A picture says a thousand words.
Rob Dawg wrote:
Ah, you're right. They wrote:
and it should have been
3,010,936,384 : 1 , for the record.
Your boss nailed it. Trillions down the sewer...too think of what that money could have done for infrastructure and what not...Complete FAILURE! anyone who does not see it is a Shill.
What would have you done with a $20 - $50 thousand dollar check in the mail? lots I am sure. What do we have to show for it right now?
And rising every week on revision....get real Dopes.
GDD9000 wrote:
Most people think the consensus sucks.
Outsider wrote:
What if it is a picture of a single word?
initial claims for the week ending june 14th 2008
380K
First degree, second degree, if you got any papers you can read 'em to me.
unchanged. that's better than increasing!
What if it is a picture of a single word?
You obviously are not a female.
Guess there weren't any more to lose in WV.
JP wrote:
Aye. (1/38)^6
(EDIT: inverse thereof)
Outsider wrote:
Data says very weak employment summer.
RD - do you keep track of automakers summer factory shutdowns for retooling?
EHP back in the day would keep us abreast
Outsider wrote:
Photoshop FTW!
What would a dollar wager left on #19 for 7 spins of the wheel get you?
(before taking it off on the 8th roll, of course.)
Rob Dawg wrote:
each spin is an independent event
the space of possible outcomes = every possible run of combinations
jp's calculation is for dependent events, I think...
Photoshop FTW!
Literary art of today, that's for sure. Modern cartooning.
JP wrote:
There's nothing unique about the number 19 unless you happened to put your money there--the odds of hitting any number seven times in a row, which is the odd result here, is (1/38)^6 ~ 3 billion to 1.
Edit: Never mind, should have kept reading and should have realized that on this board a dozen other people would have already figured this out.
JP wrote:
I will say the same thing I used to say to the online poker idiots who were always surprised to find their four of kind beat about once or twice a month cleaning out their stack. If it smells like shit, looks like shit, then it is shit.
Read through the overnight thread. Allen and MP saying the window was closed to solve the problems.
I'm still waiting for someone to suggest, explicitly, what TPTB should do to help.
What, more highway projects? I explained the other day about how these end up being nothing more than skimming operations by the big GC's, that turn around and hire cheap latino labor.
Whoever won was screwed..
justaskin wrote:
Nope... it's just that you only need 6 repeats to get 7 in a row.
it looks to me like 300k should be a considered a low reading for this series. am i interpreting the long term chart correctly? and, is that chart not adjusted for population?
Obi-Ben: I felt a great disturbance in the Farce, as if millions of voices suddenly cried out in terror and were suddenly silenced. I fear something terrible has happened.
A stern talking to by Guido (for talking it off before the 8'th spin).
Outsider wrote:
A picture says a thousand words.
Oman wrote:
PAY THEIR FREAKING TAXES for a start.
Oman wrote:
Infrastructure in electricity, sewage, internet, rails. Then, we go to dryfly's plan of paying for more street performers.
link has a map of the states and what level public pensions and health benefits funded ... need i say ... not good (map based on fiscal year 2010 ... no doubt worse now) -
According to PEW: "Many experts say that a healthy pension system should be at least 80 percent funded. In 2000, more than half of the states were 100 percent funded, but by 2010 only Wisconsin was fully funded, and 34 were below the 80 percent threshold—up from 31 in 2009 and just 22 in 2008. Connecticut, Illinois, Kentucky, and Rhode Island ranked the worst; all were under 55 percent funded in 2010. At the other end of the spectrum, four states were funded at 95 percent or better: North Carolina, South Dakota, Washington, and Wisconsin."
Have A State Pension? Don't Count On It.
Outsider wrote:
(1 picture : 1000 words) means image manipulation has some serious leverage
shill wrote:
Like new sewers?
JP wrote:
Some people who post here are odder than that.
A picture says a thousand words.
So many options, so many options. Where to start...
ECB will do their own ratings on worthless bonds:
Ponzi Comes Full Circle: ECB Will Rate Sovereign Bonds It Accepts As Collateral | ZeroHedge
Oman wrote:
Create trillions of dollars and give them to the private banking cartel, duh!
Tom Stone wrote:
@JD,
I borrowed one of your phrases,
fortune cookie
Can't argue with that; but, hows that help Joe6pc. We'll still be paying ours or many still not paying jack.
Banking regulation - not going to help joe6pc get a job.
(1 picture : 1000 words) means image manipulation has some serious leverage
And if we charge per pixel, financing provided -
RiF - let's speak privately about this.
Does that come with AIG roll & dim sum?
You can say a lot about this week's new jobless claims numbers, but for once, "unexpected" isn't one of them....
Tom Stone wrote:
The chances are pretty good.
Rob Dawg wrote:
The odds are good, but the goods are odd.
Another recent example - and it will sound partisan - was the almost universal shock and sympathy expressed worldwide in the wake of Sept. 11. Any number of scenarios might have developed out of that one, almost any of which was superior to where we went.
eurozone PMI manufacturing (june)
prior 45.1
estimate 44.8
actual 44.8
eurozone PMI services (june)
prior 46.7
estimate 46.6
actual 46.8
Billionaire Oracle CEO Ellison buys Hawaiian island - The Globe and Mail
I'm checking the couch cushions. Those Greek islands ought to be cheap soon.
Winning!
at least our estimation accuracy has improved
SEC's Schapiro eyes Europe as risk to money funds - MarketWatch
I hear the beating of a drum..
Germany vs Greece ----- soccer
Referenced in that article ^ :
For the billionaire set, it was a very ugly year - The Globe and Mail
I'm sure. Very ugly. Uh huh.
REBear wrote:
Hungary vs USSR ----- Water Polo (1956)
Greece aught to bet the treasury on Germany and then throw the game. That's the way the savvy folks would do it.
Jackdawracy wrote:
Although the odds of 19 showing up are 38^7 : 1 or 114,415,582,592 : 1 , the payoff for calling the right number exactly is a mere
36^7 : 1 or 78,364,164,096 : 1
Two guys named Rocko would probably visit you long before walking out with $78B from the casino. So between the medical bills and taxes you probably walk out with $40B from something that should net you $114B if the odds were fair.
The city of Paris's budget for cultural events and organizations exceeds that of our national arts council. There are plenty of projects throughout the country worth maintaining, or doing, which are unfunded or undersubscribed.
i live in vegas. it would not get beyond three spins if even ten dollars were riding on the original bet
Well I hit the refi button ( well last week )...( Citi mortgage ) 10 year @ 2.35 % zero/zero ..streamline...docs are going out today WHOOO!
I was in Europe when 9/11 happened, and remained there for 3 weeks afterwards, going to 4 different countries and you should have seen the solidarity expressed when I opened my mouth and my American accent came out, so much sympathy.
We stopped counting the ad hoc street memorials everywhere, with flowers and candles and whatnot. There were simply too many to begin to even think about it...
An opportunity for the first world to be on the same page, utterly dashed shortly thereafter.
Germany vs Greece ----- soccer
http://t0.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcQCyvR3bEbxvkGTSGLd334rbHu_qnca9vauOd-kxmNA3Vca914U
I can not fvcking believe that BBBY tapped 75. I was shorting it at 35 in 2008 when every insider was jumping ship like rats on fire. They were literally coming undone and the market magically rose by jumping over the ask. Unbelievable the fake markets. No reason for a housing bubble stock of a home decorator to still be flying. Absolutely sick.
Oman wrote:
back to Pew on pensions and health benefits ... picking out 2 states on retiree health benefits liabilities -
Texas
$55.949044 billion
percent funded?
1%
Illinois
$43.949729 billion
percent funded?
0.1%
Well I hit the refi button ( well last week )...( Citi mortgage ) 10 year @ 2.35 % zero/zero ..streamline...docs are going out today WHOOO!
You couldn't get them any lower?
Mike in Long Island wrote:
Pigs start flying in 20 minutes. I await: LEI for U.S. Increases | The Conference Board
which is not on CRs list.
Jackdawracy wrote on Thu, 6/21/2012 - 6:18 am (in reply to...)
reply
Why is the Loan Star State (by far the most pawn shops of any state i'm aware of) always such a whipping boy?
CA is very liberal, TX increasingly conservative. Two largest states in US. Tons of media in CA.
Comrade Kristina wrote:
Sure, but next time it'll finally work and that will be the last EVAR.
I could have haggled...but it works for me outsider...I much prefer effortless exchanges. But to be honest I was quoted 2.75 so I am pleased.
Outsider wrote:
You are an Emperor penguin, correct?
Oil down again today...Might we see 79 today?
shill - I was kidding
Great deal you got.
From the previous post: Thanks mp joesap and dryfly. I note that you don't get much sleep. I had just got home from a solstice party, last night, and was surfing the innertubes trying to wind down.
I tried to thank the Prof Delong for the 15 seconds but find now that I can't figure out how his comments work. No comment box shows up.
Oh Well. 15 seconds was more than enough for me.
This morning I have to take the diesel truck in for a smog check!!! WTF!
The good part of the day will be when friends from the solstice party come over to help me turn the rowboat over and put it on top of the Boston Whaler so I can transport it to the lake. Good Times.
burnside wrote:
I agree. We have plenty of projects in the scientific/infrastructure and arts that could easily be funded with a small fraction of the MIC's proposed budget cuts.
You are an Emperor penguin, correct?
We pronounce that Empire.
A friend with an mj Rx card that sells his wares in LA by the pound for about $3k, told me the very same pound would fetch $8k in the Loan Star State, isn't that very telling?
Anak wrote:
"that'll be cash on the barrel-head, son"?
nah....darn, I know I know it, but I can't find it...
Must get to work, have a great day everyone.
Jackdawracy wrote:
Love free-market capitalism when it helps you and hate it when it hurts you. ld, o.
Lol I do not pay attention to rates that much so when I was quoted the 2.75 even then I said ok,. I just got off the phone with the underwriter and she said 2.35% so I said even better ( cheer leader ) holding back the Booyaa!
I am happy....thank you CITI. if you are lurking.
Outsider wrote:
Yes but at these rates I am considering taking a nearly free option against future inflation by going all the way out to 30y for the cost of 75bps or so. Heck, borrow a little extra and put it in double tax free munis with reliable funding streams like sewer bonds yielding 4-4.5% and win at both ends. If the yields ever reverse... oh wait the mortgage is fixed you cannot lose.
We're still weighing our options, eh RD?
Equity (20%) might be a killer for me tho, the way pricing has fallen just in the past few months here.
Rob Dawg wrote:
I believe there are several folks from Jefferson County who will beat down your door to sell you such bonds.
shill wrote:
USA National Gas Price Heat Map - GasBuddy.com
notice the stratification of gas prices across the US. The southeast appears to be much lower, more so than usual.
Eric wrote:
oops
(been doing the "one can of Cherry Coke" and it variants recently....yes, math is hard.....)
Frigging right...bar keep set it up!...oh wait its only 10:00 am...ok make it Bloody Mary's all around
That would just shift wages from one high wage earner to another. Can't argue that the mic budget is way out of control. It's amaizing how mic, etc. has jacked up wages in the tech. and engineering space around here.
shill - you told us 2.35% upthread.
Free-market capitalism doesn't do draconian.
JP wrote:
Those would have never met my criteria of reliable funding streams. Likewise I would not touch any of the CA leaseback infrastructure bonds. That leaves all kinds of debt like school construction bonds even revenue anticipation participation notes. Even when the anticipated revenue doesn' show up municipalities always find a way to pay because otherwise they lose access to short term markets.
The MIC produces short term jobs that cost about a million dollars per year. (while in the 'stan box)
We can do better than that...
Quoted 2.75....ended up with 2.35....my type o...excited I am. Bare with the fingers
Stocks shrug amid world of worry - Jun. 21, 2012
"People are coming to the realiziation that the Fed is pretty much a sideshow to what the European Central Bank does," said Dan Greenhaus, head equity strategist at BTIG. "The Fed has become a slave to events rather than the dictator."
Funny how that happens.
YouTube - Dire Straits - Why Worry
YouTube - Bobby McFerrin - Don't Worry Be Happy
(couldn't decide)
shill wrote:
FAMILY BLOG!
Nanoo-Nanoo wrote:
Leave him alone (he's buying the
).
Heading to the Cape this evening as well so its a doubly good celebration.
black dog wrote:
Also, aren't the "funded" levels determined based on an expected return. Raise that expected return and more are funded, lower it, and more become unfunded. I really question what is a reasonable expected return going forward. I have to think a lot of these expected returns are dependent on a demographic environment that no longer exists.
Heading to the Cape this evening as well so its a doubly good celebration.
Good luck. Bring a book for traffic.
:always with the negative:
Mo better Dire Straits:
YouTube - The Man's Too Strong Dire Straits
shill wrote:
Which "cape?"
You and your ex-boss don't understand how the system works. democrabs are not an organized political party like the rethuglicans.
Breaking news: SCOTUS: 9-0 ACA is constitutional.
.
.
.
.
.
(made you look).
shill wrote:
Sweet. Not rates I ever expected to see because I am marginally sane most of the time.
Agreed. But you get Mahler displacing violent death. All-in-all, not bad.
the link mentionned current expected returns still at 8% ... good luck with that
Why have the lyrics all been written for present day? It's like it's happened before.
The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the U.S. increased 0.3 percent in May to 95.8 (2004 = 100), following a 0.1 percent decline in April, and a 0.2 percent increase in March.
LEI for U.S. Increases | The Conference Board
Sebastian
Home sales miss!
http://www.capehistorymuseums.org/images/Cape-Cod-Map-Yarmouth.gif
RobD- your data just came in, slightly up, with predictions of muddle through with no path to easy strengthening.
In other words, the best we can expect is lukewarm.
Dropping oil is the bright side!
Stagnant employment is the down side, so up goes wall street.
Someday this war's gonna end...
June Philly Fed weakest since August 2011
June Philly Fed well below consensus 0.0
BREAKING
FHFA says U.S. house prices climb 0.8% in April
Ouch
Here's a Big Gov job for someone on here. What folks would consider Good spending I would guess.
Frederick Linux Systems Administrator III 214966 (NCI) Job - MD, 21701
So the guy takes this job, goes to the local NVR subdivision, and buys a new house.
The house is slapped together by latino labor working for peanuts.
Joe6pc standing on the sidelines, prolly working under the table less hours for the same $$.
Most of the spending/benefit going to the high-end of the food chain.
Decent discussion last night, Allen.
philly fed crashed to -16.6
briefing.com expected -0.2
My hometown in the City of Angles has pennants attached to lightpoles with the names of GI Joes now, and what branch of the service they are in, the implication being that they are heroes, and maybe a decade ago you'd see the same thing, but it would have names of LA Dodgers or something like that.
Here's an example from another nearby city:
http://www.ci.diamond-bar.ca.us/Modules/ShowImage.aspx?imageid=1153
JP wrote:
You make a bet when you step up the table- "I bet the next seven spins produce identical results." There are 38 different ways for this to happen, the path of which is decided after the 1st spin which must produce a result regardless. After that first spin, then each spin must produce that result or you lose your bet. Those odds are 38 to the 6th power.
Now, if you step up to the table and make this bet: "I bet the next seven spins will produce 19." The very first spin must be 19. So the odds are 38 to the 7th power.
I've come to believe that they are all the same at the end of the day.
Anyway - I saw you comment about building a 17' pulling boat. Which kind? Whitehall, Adirondack guideboat, or ??
The roulette outcome is not as unlikely as the stated odds suggest. The 3B : 1 odds are the chances that, for a given roulette wheel, the next 7 spins are the same. However, in any given day, if a roulette wheel spins 100 times, you get 94 chances to hit seven in a row. Now multiply that by the number of days in a year and the number of roulette wheels in the world, and the odds will drop by enough orders of magnitude to make it within the realm of possibility.
Waiting for the pig, it does occur to me that global warming may be nothing more than getting closer to the mouth of Hades.
shill wrote:
Ohhhh... "THE Cape." Houses: Sister in Chatham. Aunts in P-town, Falmouth, E Falmouth, and Truro.
Just got the email from my company. Family Health Insurance plans will now cost me $2400 more per year. That's almost a 100% increase.
Well, there goes 33% of the savings I realized from my home re-fi this year.
I've stopped discussing climate. It seems to proceed without me.
Thanks, got a little frustrated, but it is all good. One hour past my bedtime, and it shows.
Getting old and cranky. (b-day tomorroow- still 39).
Stagnation is making me waaaait for Godot.
Nothing to do here but sit in cash, wait for the next crash, and then buy some good stuff to salt away for a rainy day.
Someday this war's gonna end...
GRR. If you were self-employed, at least that premium would be a deductible expense.
Please, I beg you not to call it inflationary.
I've stopped discussing climate. It seems to proceed without me.
Forgive me. Mid to high 90s for 2 days now, it's on my mind.
Citizen AllenM is really Jack Benny.
But it's just a wet heat, no?
Eric wrote:
Actually the result did just come out. The law was upheld 6 to 5 with Justices Pelosi and Reid providing the come from behind win.
With the recent numbers CR maybe correct QE in August...put those calls out long.
Sweat heat is sweat heat, I don't care what they say.
CnlJohnMatrix wrote:
I wonder what an at-cost Medicare buy-in would go for?
PTG, TTD, PTS...
Outsider wrote:
Fastest Warming U.S. States - weather.com
[ Currently 56°F here.]
philly fed
new orders
may -1.2
june -18.8
unfilled orders
may -9.4
june -16.3
Yancey Ward wrote:
LMFAO.
Those are cliff diving #s.
That's a 90% increase...in one year. I am speechless right now. I have no problem paying more..but practically doubling what I have to pay...in one year?!
Seriously . . . uh . . . not nice.
CnlJohnMatrix wrote:
It's a 90% increase in what you have to pay. What's the increase in the actual premium?
Jackdawracy wrote:
weather.com - Map Room - Satellite Map, Weather Map, Doppler
Radar US: Forecast Thursday High
We might have the lowest temps in the nation today.
DOW says...what data?
http://data.whicdn.com/images/27822487/GIF-1_large.gif
I used to go to Hong Kong in September every year, and Californians don't do humid and HK is all about that, so i'd remedy the situation when I got hot and bothered by hailing an air conditioned red taxi that was in reality an horizontal icebox on wheels. The driver would open the back door and i'd hop in, and he'd say where to?
And i'd say, drive around for $25 (about $4 u.s.) and then return here and drop me off.
Eric wrote:
Excellent question.
Those are cliff diving #s.
russian judge: "essentially unchanged"
Eric wrote:
Eric is on point!
Yancey Ward wrote:
LOL. Oh sports, is there nothing you can't analogize? Sportscasters FTW
I bet when we go to single payer there still will not be any MIC cuts......
Why did Cagey B mention fiscal cliff so much yesterday?
I think he was telegraphing the situation @ hand...
WTF - this is "merica. The company prolly is paying a lower premium.
http://www.philadelphiafed.org/research-and-data/regional-economy/business-outlook-survey/2012/bos0612.pdf
One last shot of Kruggles, which, if you look at oil and gold should terrify you:
nomiddle
Frozen economy on a stick. We are Japan- yeeha!
Keep on deflating. Pay, default, or renegotiate.
I have done all three. Nothing left to do but watch this stuff just drag on and on and on.
Someday this war's gonna end...
I expect the ACA decision to come out on the last day of the Court's term. They will not want to be present for the demonstrations that might arise from either decision.
Oman wrote:
I wouldn't doubt that at all......
I'm just pointing out that "I'm paying 90% more" may or may not actually be related to the cost of the actual healthcare.
It's a 90% increase in what you have to pay. What's the increase in the actual premium?
Overall premium went up 10%, I am absorbing all of that on my plan...and more...BECAUSE MY COMPANY DECIDED TO SUBSIDIZE INDIVIDUAL PLANS AT A HIGHER RATE THAN FAMILY PLANS.
Dean Baker says 8% is in line with current P/E's. Of course predicting the stock market using historic data is like driving your car using only the rear view mirror.
So, it is a management issue, not an insurance issue.
Good luck, might be time to find another job.
So, it is a management issue, not an insurance issue.
It's both. I have no problem with an increase in my premium. But increasing my premium by 100% is way too much...too soon.
CnlJohnMatrix wrote:
Good. I don't see why individuals in a plan, should be expected to subsidize families. As an individual, you should get the same deal as any other, but should be offered the choice to cover family members, at cost.
v
Herrishoff 17' as described in John Gardner's book on building classic small boats - book #1. It is a "smash and grab" version using crappy ply, fiberglass and epoxy. I built one small rowboat with classic lapstrake construction and found out how much time an amateur takes to build in that technique. I wanted the boat in the water for the upcoming Donner Party event. The party is pot luck but no member of the party will be eaten.
Good. I don't see why individuals in a plan, should be expected to subsidize families
But it's fair for families to subsidize individual plans (which is what is happening)? It's fair for me to pay for my family, and 50% of the cost of an additional individual?
EU federalist, optimal conditions
market failure
irony
What rules? The current EU legal framework at member-state (national) and federal (EP) is "liberal", i.e. no-low rule enforcement by national central banks on finance product liability, corporate governance, or participation among investment and depository institutions (MFIs) seeking cash "recapitalization" from ECB facilities. Enactment of legislation to amend the Fiscal Pact treaty seeks to remediate and standardize operating "risk" among ECB applicants to minimize x-border arbitrage opportunities (one classs of "trade imbalances").
CnlJohnMatrix wrote:
I am guessing, based on my own experience, that they are correcting an imbalance that existed before. Individual plans are going to mostly be for the younger cohort of your fellow employees, but being in a group plan, they were previously paying the same as you for insurance they use far less frequently than the average individual in a family. I am on the side of Blackhalo on this one.
You still haven't answered my question. Is it fair for me to pay more for my family AND subsidize the cost of other unrelated individuals..whose costs are going DOWN?
So because I use more benefits, I not only have to pay more for my family, but also pay more for unrelated individuals who are in the same group policy because they use less?
CnlJohnMatrix wrote:
I am saying that their costs were higher than they should have been previously. Your employer is subsidizing the individuals to fix that imbalance. The individuals were subsidizing you all along by virtue of paying the same rate/person covered, but probably using 1/20 of the healthcare a family might. It is even possible that your company is using the subsidy to keep them in the group plan, though I would need to know details about the plan I don't have at hand. You also didn't provide any details about what the subsidy is, how much the individuals are being charged in the withholding, etc.