Apparently New Democracy is going to win ... at least that is the rumor
The Central Bank rumor was hilarious ... uh, duh, if there are financial strains, the CBs will provide liquidity. Not much of a rumor. The question is: Will there be financial strains next week?
Also on Greece: Golden Dawn (far right) shot themselves in the foot (the face slap incident), and that will hurt them at the polls. That is a little bit of good news - extremists groups are pretty scary.
Chancellor of the Exchequer George Osborne and Bank of England Gov. Mervyn King announced plans to flood banks with cheap funds in a dual attempt to jump-start lending to British households and businesses and to fend off potential financial problems at big U.K. lenders.
"Corporations are people, my friend… of course they are. Everything corporations earn ultimately goes to the people. Where do you think it goes? Whose pockets? Whose pockets? People's pockets. Human beings, my friend."
Everything corporations earn ultimately goes to the people. Where do you think it goes? Whose pockets? Whose pockets? People's pockets. Human beings, my friend."
If you agree, this is just another reason to vote for Mitt Romney.
announced plans to flood banks with cheap funds in a dual attempt to jump-start lending to British households and businesses and to fend off potential financial problems at big U.K. lenders.
The flood of money that hits the lenders will stay with the lenders.
Announcement of one shot gun loaded, aimed and ready to be fired.
I think UK, US, EU, maybe China, India, Au do a co-ordinated shot gun blast - it will be the last shot fired.
I mean if we have fewer hotels in the mix and the revenue pool is going into a smaller consolidated group, it stands to reason that these metrics are totally meaningless:
The industry now has about 6,000 new hotels, with nearly 800,000 rooms, under development, a 27 percent increase from last year, according to Lodging Econometrics ...
Chancellor of the Exchequer George Osborne and Bank of England Gov. Mervyn King announced plans to flood banks with cheap funds in a dual attempt to jump-start lending to British households and businesses
Goldman Sachs $573,080
JPMorgan Chase & Co $415,075
Bank of America $398,850
Morgan Stanley $373,850
Credit Suisse Group $317,410
Citigroup Inc $301,550
NEW YORK (Reuters) - Foreclosure starts rose year-over-year in May for the first time in more than two years - though they fell on a month-to-month basis - as banks resumed dealing with distressed properties after a mortgage abuse settlement earlier this year, data firm RealtyTrac said on Thursday.
The $25 billion settlement between major banks and states, formally approved in April, had been expected to jump-start foreclosure proceedings that were previously stalled by uncertainty about the liability of banks.
Overall foreclosure activity, which includes default notices, scheduled auctions and bank repossessions, affected 205,990 properties in May, a 9.1 percent increase from April.
I would think they will reload and fire again and again.
They don't have the money, the ability or the political backing.
Once more is all they get. And it will be very big. If the money can get to main street there is a chance. If it simply stays in the banks as it has in the past - all that money is of no productive use at all.
Spain's Housing Market May Need Four More Years To Rebalance
The unwinding has begun: House prices have dropped 22% in nominal terms between first-quarter 2008 and first-quarter 2012, according to the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development. That's more than in any other eurozone country except for Ireland. However, the magnitude of the decline has to be juxtaposed against the 150% rise in prices in Spain between 2000 and the peak in 2008. We note that prices climbed 116% in Ireland and 60% in the eurozone on average over the same period.
How about compulsory military service since WWII got us out of the Great Depression.
It could be military, Peace Corps, Ameri Core, nursing homes, teachers aids.
And it needs to be 4 years. Need time for the oldsters to die off or retire.
Georgia leapfrogged past Arizona, Florida, California and Nevada to post the nation’s highest state foreclosure rate in May, the first time since February 2006 that Georgia’s foreclosure rate has ranked highest among the states.
people not having any jobs for 10 years, and then (thanks to rationing) having nothing to buy for 4, immense capital destruction in the rest of the modern world, significant advancements in dozens of tech areas -- aircraft, electronics, nuclear science, management science --millions of Americans getting years of free OJT in all kinds of fields in the military, and a totally deleveraged private sector had a lot to do with the eventual post-war recovery, which didn't show up until the 1950s IIRC.
Thinking that government can give us a better economy now is cargo cult thinking at its finest.
Our problem is the rent-seeking allowed to go on. That, along with the trade deficit, is the sucking chest wound of the system.
people over 60 are economic deadweight but they're not a problem to be solved.
we could raise taxes to pay for their retirements.
but we the people do not want to raise taxes. we want to have our cake and eat it too, and will vote out any politician that does threaten to raise taxes.
The Central Bank rumor was hilarious ... uh, duh, if there are financial strains, the CBs will provide liquidity. Not much of a rumor. The question is: Will there be financial strains next week?
well, why did they feel the need to announce this? Almost like announcing that they know something we do not.
"Since morality is only for Republicans and religious freaks doesn't it make sense to do what is best for the economy?"
Keep on drinking that . Although I would avoid the grape variety if I were you.
On the basis of that idea Dostoevsky predicted the rise of Stalinism and the mass murders in Russian around 60 years before they actually happened.
I think it is one of the most uncannily accurate predictions in history.
He even almost got the name of the movement right!
The trade deficit is a financial drain on the private sector
the trade deficit is pulling $600B/yr out of the private sector, which is being back-filled by the $1.2T fiscal deficit.
it's not the trade that's the issue, it's the money that is leaving our paycheck economy and not coming back (as wages).
follow the money.
Correct. The back-fill has been positive since 2009. It was negative from 1997 through 2008.
Eric wrote Don't make the mistake of thinking everyone who trades something knows what it is.
What? I wanna be like Mike...er Jamie......
Markets.....
Erie County has had a state mandated "Control Board" (nice budget for those folks, I might add) for several years now......they recently transitioned to a "soft" board....
Right now the county is fighting with the board over bond issuance...going back into our "capitol" (sic) markets for some "capital improvements" funding...(hmm,,,Bills stadium improvements, anyone)....
Seems the CB gets a better rate than the County, but the new County exec. is worried that if he (that's the royal "he" there) doesn't float something , our credit rating might get, shall we say, old & tarnished.....
It's all fascinating.....almost like Wallenda over the Falls, except they've insisted on a tether for him....watch on Friday, maybe he'll flip the 'biner.....
the problem is we can't inflate our way out of our demographic challenge, our housing rents, nor our energy costs, nor our health care costs.
this is where I part intellectual company with the Krugs. Being a neoclassical, he lacks the perspective of the heterodox peeps who I think are closer to the ugly truths here.
OT: I'm behind the conversation as usual. Quick question for any takers about CPI inflation numbers from previous thread: why are dollar values from past years always low when adjusted forward through the inflation calculator?
Example: Hoover Dam. Say it was completed the year it was started in 1931 for the reported $49million cost. What cost $49,000,000 in 1931 would cost $694,788,524 in 2010. Does anyone really believe the Hoover Dam would cost less than $1Billion today? The CPI would say the Pentagon was built in 1941 for $1.2Billion in 2010 dollars. In fact, if I take the purchase price for any house that is 40 years old or so, the current price always seems less than what I think it could even be CONSTRUCTED for today.
What am I missing? Serious question, not a rant against "official government" numbers.
Velocity of M2 Money Stock (M2V) - FRED - St. Louis Fed
LOL. You can lead a horse to money supply, but you can't make him spend.
BTW, is there any HCN award for terrible and/or mixed metaphors? I feel like I'm way ahead in this regard lately.
Tanta used to muddle metaphors like a mad bartender. Delicious.
Anyway. The Fed thinks that when balance sheets are repaired anf inflation heats up they will be able to just pull all that money back. Fuggedaboutit. Call it a POMO and move on. Brace for the inflation storm when it leaks out.
The 2% FICA cut was taken by the landlord, of course.
Thought it was to help cover the increase in gas prices.
Or maybe the jump in utility costs.
Then again, could have helped offset medical or education costs.
Last I checked, the money has FEDERAL RESERVE stamped on it. Their money, their rules.
I was referencing the stimulus checks from the Treasury, and the 2% FICA cut. Did not see the Fed's name stamped on any of those. And both of those took acts of Congress in order to happen.
(But yes, somebody else's rules. Why are we arguing about this??)
What am I missing? Serious question, not a rant against "official government" numbers.
Prevailing wages. Oversight. Bidding process. Gold plating. My old company bid a part for the shuttle program that was NTE less than the winner's deliverable charge for the documentation alone. We lost because we declined to provide enough paperwork.
why are dollar values from past years always low when adjusted forward . . .
Example: Hoover Dam. Say it was completed the year it was started in 1931 for the reported $49million cost. . . Does anyone really believe the Hoover Dam would cost less than $1Billion today?
Don't buy it. I don't care how much they say it's worth now. And that Brooklyn Bridge? It's not exactly a bargain either.
Yeah, but the Hoover Dam was supposedly this HUGE government works project to create jobs. Less than 1Billion today is NOTHING. If we had a 30s style stimulus project today, no one would even start debating a number smaller than $100B.
I wouldn't think Krugman believes that the Fed targeting an inflation rate will solve what are essentially fiscal problems.
I think his thesis is missing the possibility that money drops will make things a lot worse, that the rent-seekers will just skim the intervention off in the end, leaving the masses no better off.
California Hedge Fund Is Latest Europe Crisis Casualty - Bloomberg Hedge-fund manager Paul Sinclair is the latest casualty of Europe’s sovereign-debt turmoil, almost six thousand miles away from the epicenter of the crisis.
Sinclair, who is based in Los Angeles, is liquidating his $458 million health-care equities fund, Expo Capital Management LLC, after more than five years, as political decisions made on the other side of the globe have undermined his stock picks and spurred losses for a second year.
How many transactions does it take before a dollar winds up overseas ?
How long until that dollar finds it's way back ? Perhaps we have to worry
about velocity at home and abroad.
The latest scam seems to be to say that American companies are not affected by what is happening or will happen in Europe. As the article linked above indicates about hedge funds shutting down: The turmoil in the global markets has spurred stocks across industries to rise and fall in tandem.
Maxed Out Mama makes the claim that the US economy is not being hurt at the
moment by the euro crisis . She says lower gas and lower mortgage payments
have delayed the negatives so far.
I don't know, seems like maybe something about the scale is wrong. 49M in 1931 was 1.37% of federal spending. 1.37% of 2010 federal spending is 43.9 Billion! In 1931 the cost of the Hoover Dam was 63X the budget impact as the inflation adjusted value on the 2010 budget. This makes my head hurt. Are we really that much more productive now? I'll stop hijacking the thread now....
Yes, but when it does come back... It is going to be particularly hard to explain to the American people that they are being outbid for all things domestic.
A few threads ago I noted that a candy bar that now costs a dollar was but a nickel in 1966, and the 'official' inflation index has a 1966 dollar being worth close to $7 now, so they missed reality by almost 3x on an everyday product.
Gasoline was a quarter a gallon back then, and I don't see any for $1.75 a gallon out there, do you?
I paid $6 for some $40 cargo pants last year. Clearance rack sales at Kohls are awesome
Discovered JC Penny's online clearance a few weeks ago. Jackets for $10-$20 bucks. Got a sweet zippered fleece pullover for $5. They basically were giving away the winter stock.
It's an interesting topic! CPI is by-and-large an incremental measurement. The fact that the long term integration of the short increments would lead to largish errors is not surprising, but quantifying how far off is a worthy pursuit.
If inflation is a monetary thing, isn't it at least tied to monetary base and correlated with GDP? Also, if CPI is just a Consumer Index, and not reflective of all prices, why would it be used to value All Dollars?
Full disclosure: Don't listen to me. I haven't got teh economic training. Most of my posts are just cries for help in understanding.
A long time ago, I represented a client who dealt in jeans.
He said the expensive ones were made in the same factory with the same people and the same cloth as the cheap ones. Label different. Don't know if this is still true.
I suppose if you have embroidery or sparkles on them, they might be more. But, maybe not.
[Counts rapidly on fingers and toes... airfare... taxi...]
I'll be right over.
What should I bring in addition to wearing three pair of Levis on the plane? Last time my sister (Aussie) was here she brought her iPad original and went home with and iPad2 in the same old case.
In 2010 at this time, we were all watching DWH spewing oil all over the gulf. In 2011, based on vehicle logs, retail fuel prices were spiking up close to $4/gal. This is the first summer since 2009 with no catastrophe, and with fuel prices finally moderating. It may be a collision of decent events for a change.
[Counts rapidly on fingers and toes... airfare... taxi...]
I'll be right over. Wink
What should I bring in addition to wearing three pair of Levis on the plane? Last time my sister (Aussie) was here she brought her iPad original and went home with and iPad2 in the same old case.
Chardonnay, Sonoma County Chardonnay. kate's corner would be a good choice.
A newer 3 year old car with 60,000 miles, if you want to get specific.
A bit cheaper for a 5 year with 50,000 Km from Japan, as the Japanese sell their cars after 5 years. However, the gov't has recently introduced some restrictions on importing "New In NZ" cars from Japan.
New cars are astronomically expensive. I have no idea how people can afford many of the new cars.
I'm trying to convine my wife to drop the satellite and buy a gym membership.
They have tv's on the stationary bikes, it's 2 blocks away, and it would save us
$40 per month. So far she is not convinced.
Way back when, all you needed to do to pay for your Aussie trip was to have about 100 sovereigns with an Australian mintmark on them. Sell them at the first bullion dealer you stopped at in Sydney or Melbourne.
What should I bring in addition to wearing three pair of Levis on the plane? Last time my sister (Aussie) was here she brought her iPad original and went home with and iPad2 in the same old case.
Any outdoor gear. All outdoor gear in NZ costs 3X what you pay for it in the US.
I remember how proud an aged round metal disc dealer in Wellington was of his 1978 Mercedes 240D that thanks to Bunker Hunt machinations with the silver market, he was able to purchase for $70k in 1981. You never saw a new car on the road back then and seldom do you now..
He said the expensive ones were made in the same factory with the same people and the same cloth as the cheap ones. Label different. Don't know if this is still true.
In my salad days I worked the "warehouse sale" for a well know DC leather goods outfit......found several jackets with the "Made in USA" label stitched on top of the Korean one.....
You never saw a new car on the road back then and seldom do you now..
Are you kidding? The city of chock full of new, expensive European import cars. Brand new off the lot. They pay astronomical prices for them. Like I said, I have no idea how these people can afford them.
I can't begin to understand how a country where the people make 2/3rds of what people make here on average, can afford $50k new cars that aren't all that.
It's an interesting topic! CPI is by-and-large an incremental measurement. The fact that the long term integration of the short increments would lead to largish errors is not surprising, but quantifying how far off is a worthy pursuit
I just tried this inflation calculator as it allows you to vary indexes.
I used CPI-W for gas as gas obviously isn't subject to substitution and hedonics which IMO justifiably reduces the index and would result in a somewhat understated value.
Clerical Workers (CPI-W) on a monthly basis. We use the CPI-W to annually adjust benefits paid to Social Security beneficiaries and Supplemental Security Income recipients.
Gas at approx. $1.00 in 1980 would now be $3.03. Quiet reasonable.
Now I did the same calculation using the Shadowstats option: $10.72. Not so reasonable.
Tanta vive!
Occupancy rates? SRSly? I mean, can't we at least talk about DSK occupancy rants? Or just stick to plain old vanilla rumors?
energyecon, yes!
Occupany 100% anywhere within 90 miles of Yellowstone until September.
Eeek!
Spain 10 year
You're telling me, hell I had the Dope as a Governor...Another useless Hack. America hasn't a clue about this man.
shill wrote:
And when his policies don't work it will be because he was such a "radical right-winger".
Politics is a form of insanity.
Economics is a form of politics.
"I should tell my story. I'm also unemployed."
—Mitt Romney, speaking in 2011 to unemployed people in Florida. Romney's net worth is over $200 million.
At least Romney knows how to run a business (into the ground.)
Apparently New Democracy is going to win ... at least that is the rumor
The Central Bank rumor was hilarious ... uh, duh, if there are financial strains, the CBs will provide liquidity. Not much of a rumor. The question is: Will there be financial strains next week?
Also on Greece: Golden Dawn (far right) shot themselves in the foot (the face slap incident), and that will hurt them at the polls. That is a little bit of good news - extremists groups are pretty scary.
Hotel Occupancy rates are up, gas prices are down, coincidence ?
Would have saved time to shoot themselves in the face.
Spanish 10-year Yield Hits Record 7%, Italian Borrowing Costs Rise
U.K. Aims to Mute Impact of Crisis - WSJ.com
Mo money, mo money!
Romney will be Bush/Obama 2.5 revision...so expect nothing and you will be ok.
Like I said he was useless in Massachusetts and he will be useless in Washington as well. But I am sure the acting classes are paying off for him.
"Corporations are people, my friend… of course they are. Everything corporations earn ultimately goes to the people. Where do you think it goes? Whose pockets? Whose pockets? People's pockets. Human beings, my friend."
—Mitt Romney to a heckler..
CalculatedRisk wrote:
Watch the mixed metaphors...
So spoketh Kennedy to Romney. He's just a mouthpiece for the SCOTUS.
shill wrote:
In MA he didn't even have the votes to sustain a veto...the legislature ran the state and he was just along for the ride...
Googled financial repression. yep
Romney: a hard cap on federal spending
BUY MOAR EUROZ!
You are correct Cinco
Rickkk wrote:
If you agree, this is just another reason to vote for Mitt Romney.
CalculatedRisk wrote:
The flood of money that hits the lenders will stay with the lenders.
Announcement of one shot gun loaded, aimed and ready to be fired.
I think UK, US, EU, maybe China, India, Au do a co-ordinated shot gun blast - it will be the last shot fired.
Piranha 3DD (2012) - IMDb
...saw that trailer when i went to see Prometheus...
...that 3 "double D"
Mitt Romney's list of top campaign contributors is a site to behold. Truly a man of the people.
shill wrote:
Yup the buck stops over there!
Q?1: How many hotels are in this sample? Did we increase the amount of hotels in the last 5 years or was there a decrease?
CalculatedRisk wrote:
Usually when you start seeing the word "New" in political party names war isn't too far off...
Mitt Romney has stated that he wants to eliminate unemployment insurance and replace it with private investment accounts.
Romney: Tax deal, bad deal - USATODAY.com
I hope he is successful in this endeavour.
I
for my
ac wrote:
Typcall indicative of same ol', same ol' policies too....
Lol for sure Trader...here is in Mass suit cases full of money hang like ornaments at the state house. Just pick one with your name on it.
josap wrote:
That's why I think we should be fading whatever "easing" or "stimulus" comes along.
Sebastian
RATM wrote:
Stop abusing your monkey....
"The End of the World as We Know It" by Dani Rodrik | Project Syndicate
Really and possible reality, doom.
http://www.blackradionetwork.com/images/userfiles/chaingang.jpg
I mean if we have fewer hotels in the mix and the revenue pool is going into a smaller consolidated group, it stands to reason that these metrics are totally meaningless:
Number of Bank Foreclosed Hotels in California Shot Up to 62
==> Hence, let's go backwards to this 2008 value:
The industry now has about 6,000 new hotels, with nearly 800,000 rooms, under development, a 27 percent increase from last year, according to Lodging Econometrics ...
Baw Humbug:
Financing Constraints Continue to Impede Project Migration Toward Construction in the U.S.
shill wrote:
Didn't the last couple of speakers end up on the hoosegow?
Chancellor of the Exchequer George Osborne and Bank of England Gov. Mervyn King announced plans to flood banks with cheap funds in a dual attempt to jump-start lending to British households and businesses
how will that help (lack of) demand?
black dog wrote:
Transubstantiation, infidel.
Useless. What's needed there and here are WPA, CCC type programs where people can work on domestic projects
Step 1) Lots of liquidity
Steps 2-99) ????
Step 100) Lots of organic demand
New York Fed Announces Full Repayment of its Loans to Maiden Lane LLC and Maiden Lane III LLC - Federal Reserve Bank of New York
I would think they will reload and fire again and again.
BREAKING
AIG says Maiden Lane III loan fully repaid
Goldman Sachs $573,080
JPMorgan Chase & Co $415,075
Bank of America $398,850
Morgan Stanley $373,850
Credit Suisse Group $317,410
Citigroup Inc $301,550
awesome
shill wrote:
Totally politically motivated
Foreclosures up for first time in 27 months - CNBC
NEW YORK (Reuters) - Foreclosure starts rose year-over-year in May for the first time in more than two years - though they fell on a month-to-month basis - as banks resumed dealing with distressed properties after a mortgage abuse settlement earlier this year, data firm RealtyTrac said on Thursday.
The $25 billion settlement between major banks and states, formally approved in April, had been expected to jump-start foreclosure proceedings that were previously stalled by uncertainty about the liability of banks.
Overall foreclosure activity, which includes default notices, scheduled auctions and bank repossessions, affected 205,990 properties in May, a 9.1 percent increase from April.
CalculatedRisk wrote:
You can bank on it, assuming there is a bank that is open.
Rob Dawg wrote:
Staycations. Stay in the US that is.
Cinco-X wrote:
nice to see Doc Brown from Back to the Future making a good career reversal
from the days of sending DeLoreans into the past/future...
gab wrote:
They don't have the money, the ability or the political backing.
Once more is all they get. And it will be very big. If the money can get to main street there is a chance. If it simply stays in the banks as it has in the past - all that money is of no productive use at all.
rosethorn wrote:
How about compulsory military service since WWII got us out of the Great Depression.
Spain's Housing Market May Need Four More Years To Rebalance
The unwinding has begun: House prices have dropped 22% in nominal terms between first-quarter 2008 and first-quarter 2012, according to the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development. That's more than in any other eurozone country except for Ireland. However, the magnitude of the decline has to be juxtaposed against the 150% rise in prices in Spain between 2000 and the peak in 2008. We note that prices climbed 116% in Ireland and 60% in the eurozone on average over the same period.
RATM wrote:
unlike my Senator Chuck Schumer?
Housing market rebounding, but slowly - Amy Hoak's Home Economics - MarketWatch
ac wrote:
It could be military, Peace Corps, Ameri Core, nursing homes, teachers aids.
And it needs to be 4 years. Need time for the oldsters to die off or retire.
josap wrote:
Too optimistic.
Brass want fewer bodies and more hardware. They want to cut soldier pay and health benefits.
Sweet:
Allen Stanford sentenced to 110 years in $7B swindle - chicagotribune.com
Duke of Con Dao wrote:
You part of the !%? Do you own a a Senator? Congrats!
rosethorn wrote:
Robots building war robots.
Now if we could just have them killing robots.
josap wrote:
Way too many bloaters. Medical bills would outweigh the benefits.
traderwalt wrote:
no. I was thinking Chuck and he quoted me filet mignon.
Georgia is #1!!!
Your morning jolt: Georgia jumps to national lead in foreclosure rates | Political Insider
Georgia leapfrogged past Arizona, Florida, California and Nevada to post the nation’s highest state foreclosure rate in May, the first time since February 2006 that Georgia’s foreclosure rate has ranked highest among the states.
people not having any jobs for 10 years, and then (thanks to rationing) having nothing to buy for 4, immense capital destruction in the rest of the modern world, significant advancements in dozens of tech areas -- aircraft, electronics, nuclear science, management science --millions of Americans getting years of free OJT in all kinds of fields in the military, and a totally deleveraged private sector had a lot to do with the eventual post-war recovery, which didn't show up until the 1950s IIRC.
Thinking that government can give us a better economy now is cargo cult thinking at its finest.
Our problem is the rent-seeking allowed to go on. That, along with the trade deficit, is the sucking chest wound of the system.
rosethorn wrote:
friends bought a place back in '91 in the new SoHo-like area of Barcelona for about 235k.
sold it in '03 and walked away with 500k in profit...
josap wrote:
I was thinking since economics isn't about morality why don't we just "get rid of" all the people over 60.
Since morality is only for Republicans and religious freaks doesn't it make sense to do what is best for the economy?
Interesting comment from an Agora pub...
"By the way, did anyone else notice Dimon’s cufflinks yesterday? They had the presidential seal. "
Keep on drinking that
. Although I would avoid the grape variety if I were you.
ac wrote:
Hey, I resemble that comment!
d
Now hiring: U.S. Needs Another 600 Humans to Fly Its Robot Planes | Danger Room | Wired.com
Heh. You know a topic is a bit of a yawner when the blog host is one of the first to zoom off topic. More Yerp! More Yerp! More Yerp!
Comrade Troyski wrote:
The trade deficit is currently supporting the private sector. The private sector would look even worse without it.
Obviously, a balanced current account is preferable but during deleveraging the private sector needs support wherever it can get it.
If we cut the budget deficit as well as the current account deficit in a balance sheet recession/depression then all hell will brake loose.
Private Sector Surplus or Net Saving = Government Deficit + Current Account Balance
people over 60 are economic deadweight but they're not a problem to be solved.
we could raise taxes to pay for their retirements.
but we the people do not want to raise taxes. we want to have our cake and eat it too, and will vote out any politician that does threaten to raise taxes.
we demonstrated that most convincingly in 1994.
List of countries by tax revenue as percentage of GDP - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
wass
ac wrote:
Waiting.
CalculatedRisk wrote:
So are the economic conditions that give them voice.
well, why did they feel the need to announce this? Almost like announcing that they know something we do not.
RATM wrote:
I wonder if teenage gamers are hard to find.
Blackhalo wrote:
POTD candidate
I found this last week:
http://i.imgur.com/mvIaA.png
and now is a good time to share.
(note the date)
dwb wrote:
Yes they do, but that doesn't mean they know what to do about it.
I hear the
flavored
tastes Wicked Pissah!
need a job ? the U.S. Air Force is hiring
U.S. Needs Another 600 Humans to Fly Its Robot Planes | Danger Room | Wired.com
yuan wrote:
On the basis of that idea Dostoevsky predicted the rise of Stalinism and the mass murders in Russian around 60 years before they actually happened.
I think it is one of the most uncannily accurate predictions in history.
He even almost got the name of the movement right!
Eric wrote Don't make the mistake of thinking everyone who trades something knows what it is.
What? I wanna be like Mike...er Jamie......
OK. So if you were going to bet your liquid net worth on one option contract tomorrow, what would it be?
Let the World print money. We will then see if:
MV=PQ
After taxes and negative interest rates, savers will be eating cat food. This is Bens plan.
Have you priced cat food recently. There is inflation.
RE wrote:
You have it backwards. The trade deficit is a financial drain on the private sector.
comrade mike wrote:
and veterinarian bills... oy ve
Former Idealist wrote:
the hedonics will work out nicely for them!
comrade mike wrote:
If only the CBs could print velocity.
the trade deficit is pulling $600B/yr out of the private sector, which is being back-filled by the $1.2T fiscal deficit.
it's not the trade that's the issue, it's the money that is leaving our paycheck economy and not coming back (as wages).
follow the money.
dwb wrote:
ding ding ding
umop apisdn wrote:
oh, they can.
literally
Pick one
AGNC goes Ex div Tuesday ( potential $39 dollar stock )
SVU Div gets paid tomorrow.
2 dice tosses.
Oh and MTGE goes Ex div as well.
Comrade Troyski wrote :
Correct. The back-fill has been positive since 2009. It was negative from 1997 through 2008.
energyecon wrote:
yup.
:shit: -> :fan:
"oh, they can."
Velocity of M2 Money Stock (M2V) - FRED - St. Louis Fed

Velocity of M1 Money Stock (M1V) - FRED - St. Louis Fed
Velocity of MZM Money Stock (MZMV) - FRED - St. Louis Fed
the home equity withdrawal bubble of 2003-2007 was a close simulation of a mass money drop.
I don't see how the system can rig up something of that scale again.
we're talking a spike that was 20% of total wages:
Graph: Household Sector: Liabilities: Household Credit Market Debt Outstanding (CMDEBT)/Compensation of Employees, Received: Wage and Salary Disbursements (A576RC1) - FRED - St. Louis Fed
Way too many bloaters.
The junk food and fast food industry is a big part of the eCONomy too.
adding mzmv to my above chart:
FRED Graph - FRED - St. Louis Fed
shows how the housing bubble itself was a minor reversal on the overall trend
justaskin wrote:
Markets.....
Erie County has had a state mandated "Control Board" (nice budget for those folks, I might add) for several years now......they recently transitioned to a "soft" board....
Right now the county is fighting with the board over bond issuance...going back into our "capitol" (sic) markets for some "capital improvements" funding...(hmm,,,Bills stadium improvements, anyone)....
Seems the CB gets a better rate than the County, but the new County exec. is worried that if he (that's the royal "he" there) doesn't float something , our credit rating might get, shall we say, old & tarnished.....
It's all fascinating.....almost like Wallenda over the Falls, except they've insisted on a tether for him....watch on Friday, maybe he'll flip the 'biner.....
Have you priced cat food recently. There is inflation.
Cans and cartons with the junk food are smaller but prices increase.
poic wrote:
I still haven't gotten a check in the mail. you want me to panic into moving cash? - send me a $100k check and send one to all my neighbors.
"I still haven't gotten a check in the mail. you want me to panic into moving cash? - send me a $100k check and send one to all my neighbors. "
You said they can change money velocity by dropping money. I don't see that in any graphs that track money velocity.
What do you mean "they don't have the money(?)" The Fed and other central banks have unlimited power to create money.
savers will be eating cat food
And then get sick and use the medical system...
the can change it, but it would require adding a zero onto the checks.
$250 stimulus checks about to hit mailboxes » Corpus Christi Caller-Times
The 2% FICA cut was taken by the landlord, of course.
O.C. apartment rents up $40 a month - Lansner on Real Estate : The Orange County Register
The Fed and other central banks have unlimited power...
Many people don't see it that way thanks to the media/govt. brainwashing and many people don't even know what a central bank is.
poic wrote:
LOL. You can lead a horse to money supply, but you can't make him spend.
BTW, is there any HCN award for terrible and/or mixed metaphors? I feel like I'm way ahead in this regard lately.
Comrade Troyski wrote:
That was Congress, not the Fed.
the problem is we can't inflate our way out of our demographic challenge, our housing rents, nor our energy costs, nor our health care costs.
this is where I part intellectual company with the Krugs. Being a neoclassical, he lacks the perspective of the heterodox peeps who I think are closer to the ugly truths here.
JP wrote:
:MMMI:
OT: I'm behind the conversation as usual. Quick question for any takers about CPI inflation numbers from previous thread: why are dollar values from past years always low when adjusted forward through the inflation calculator?
Example: Hoover Dam. Say it was completed the year it was started in 1931 for the reported $49million cost. What cost $49,000,000 in 1931 would cost $694,788,524 in 2010. Does anyone really believe the Hoover Dam would cost less than $1Billion today? The CPI would say the Pentagon was built in 1941 for $1.2Billion in 2010 dollars. In fact, if I take the purchase price for any house that is 40 years old or so, the current price always seems less than what I think it could even be CONSTRUCTED for today.
What am I missing? Serious question, not a rant against "official government" numbers.
Last I checked, the money has FEDERAL RESERVE stamped on it. Their money, their rules.
JP wrote:
Tanta used to muddle metaphors like a mad bartender. Delicious.
Anyway. The Fed thinks that when balance sheets are repaired anf inflation heats up they will be able to just pull all that money back. Fuggedaboutit. Call it a POMO and move on. Brace for the inflation storm when it leaks out.
Comrade Troyski wrote:
Thought it was to help cover the increase in gas prices.
Or maybe the jump in utility costs.
Then again, could have helped offset medical or education costs.
Why no
s?
How about they have a certain amount of time to lend out X dollars, or they have to give it back again?
quality of construction. The Pentagon, as built, was a pile of crap for one.
safety costs money, too
Hoover Dam - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
back then there was more oversight on waste perhaps. People were a LOT hungrier and willing to work for very low wages, too.
Comrade Troyski wrote:
I was referencing the stimulus checks from the Treasury, and the 2% FICA cut. Did not see the Fed's name stamped on any of those. And both of those took acts of Congress in order to happen.
(But yes, somebody else's rules. Why are we arguing about this??)
Just send everyone $10K and see what happens.
Lots will be spent, some will pay off debt.
But that money will move - and fast.
not_going_to_post wrote:
Prevailing wages. Oversight. Bidding process. Gold plating. My old company bid a part for the shuttle program that was NTE less than the winner's deliverable charge for the documentation alone. We lost because we declined to provide enough paperwork.
(But yes, somebody else's rules. Why are we arguing about this??)
It will all be important when the contagion unfolds and later when the trials begin.
the 2% FICA cut is close to Fed money printing. Treasury is just printing the bonds to "fund" that.
The next step is, of course, the Fed buying the Treasury bonds to fund the next money drop.
Just like China et al were buying the Agency bonds that were funding the mortgage bubble money recirculation.
Now, I don't think the Fed will start sending charged-up VISA debit cards to 100 million households every month.
But they could, I suppose.
I wouldn't think Krugman believes that the Fed targeting an inflation rate will solve what are essentially fiscal problems.
I'm certain he wouldn't believe that's the answer to our health care cost issues.
not_going_to_post wrote:
Don't buy it. I don't care how much they say it's worth now. And that Brooklyn Bridge? It's not exactly a bargain either.
Yeah, but the Hoover Dam was supposedly this HUGE government works project to create jobs. Less than 1Billion today is NOTHING. If we had a 30s style stimulus project today, no one would even start debating a number smaller than $100B.
I think his thesis is missing the possibility that money drops will make things a lot worse, that the rent-seekers will just skim the intervention off in the end, leaving the masses no better off.
Comrade Troyski wrote:
That would be the high-tech equivalent of the helicopter money drop that gave rise to Bernanke's nickname.
josap wrote:
Laddered CDs with differing maturing dates. Can't wait? Sell the note FMV.
"no one would even start debating a number smaller than $100B. "
Go big or go home!!
poic wrote:
Beware of Greeks paring grift.
California Hedge Fund Is Latest Europe Crisis Casualty - Bloomberg
Hedge-fund manager Paul Sinclair is the latest casualty of Europe’s sovereign-debt turmoil, almost six thousand miles away from the epicenter of the crisis.
Sinclair, who is based in Los Angeles, is liquidating his $458 million health-care equities fund, Expo Capital Management LLC, after more than five years, as political decisions made on the other side of the globe have undermined his stock picks and spurred losses for a second year.
merchants of fear wrote:
He must be a regular here. Blame the unanticipated that should have been.
How many transactions does it take before a dollar winds up overseas ?
How long until that dollar finds it's way back ? Perhaps we have to worry
about velocity at home and abroad.
I should send Sinclair an invite to my loss-diversification newsletter. Seems like he needs it.
If you're homeless, are you always on straycation?
The latest scam seems to be to say that American companies are not affected by what is happening or will happen in Europe. As the article linked above indicates about hedge funds shutting down:
The turmoil in the global markets has spurred stocks across industries to rise and fall in tandem.
Interesting discussion, but alas, the Real World calls.
Jackdawracy wrote:
We'll go under that bridge when we get to it.
umop apisdn wrote:
I apologize you and Troyski are right.
http://neweconomicperspectives.org/wp-content/uploads/2012/03/untitled-32.png
Maxed Out Mama makes the claim that the US economy is not being hurt at the
moment by the euro crisis . She says lower gas and lower mortgage payments
have delayed the negatives so far.
Blame the unanticipated that should have been.
Or call the anticipated unanticipated.
My take is that the guy sucked at investing OPM and he used Europe, the Fed, China, etc. as a convenient excuse.
He couldn't very well say, "I'm no good at my job so I'm hanging it up." now could he?
not under a Miami Bridge, hopefully.
How's the pyramid scheme going in Cairo?
Yep. I agree.
No flation for a while more.
Maxed Out Mama makes the claim...
Maxed Out Mama would know what's going on, right?
lawyerliz wrote:
Facing the future.
Hard to be serious when two male Allen's Hummingbirds are just outside the door fighting over a female or territory.
I don't know, seems like maybe something about the scale is wrong. 49M in 1931 was 1.37% of federal spending. 1.37% of 2010 federal spending is 43.9 Billion! In 1931 the cost of the Hoover Dam was 63X the budget impact as the inflation adjusted value on the 2010 budget. This makes my head hurt. Are we really that much more productive now? I'll stop hijacking the thread now....
Well, she gives her opinion. I don't think she claims to be Kreskin.
Yep. I agree.
No flation for a while more.
You must be avoiding grocery stores.
Don't stop, not going to.
productivity is bad!
lawyerliz wrote:
Yes, but when it does come back... It is going to be particularly hard to explain to the American people that they are being outbid for all things domestic.
Well, she gives her opinion. I don't think she claims to be Kreskin.
I was sorta making a joke if she's 'maxed out', maybe she's not the best source.
A few threads ago I noted that a candy bar that now costs a dollar was but a nickel in 1966, and the 'official' inflation index has a 1966 dollar being worth close to $7 now, so they missed reality by almost 3x on an everyday product.
Gasoline was a quarter a gallon back then, and I don't see any for $1.75 a gallon out there, do you?
Gas down, clothes very cheap, houses cheap (except you-know-where), electronic stuff cheap, groceries up.
lawyerliz wrote:
Ok then, help me think of a new handle. Since I have posted a few times now I should change my name.
She used to post here. She was verrry good
lawyerliz wrote:
91 octane (regular) petrol: NZ$2.059/litre = NZ$7.79/US Gallon = US$6.07/US Gallon
clothes very cheap
Guess you haven't been to Kohl's or those kinds of chain clothing stores lately.
U.S. consumer prices fall in May by most in over 3 years - The Globe and Mail
not_going_to_post wrote:
now posting
She used to post here
Oh yeah. U R rite.
Think big! New handle:
now_gonna_post_a_lot
Paid $3.249 on Merritt Island, and today $3.379 in Miami; happened to be a black area. Signs up to $3.459.
That's about as creative as I could come up with. rarely_going_to_post? Maybe slow_rollin'_trollin'?
I paid $6 for some $40 cargo pants last year. Clearance rack sales at Kohls are awesome.
Food, clothing, are not the long poles in the budgetary tent. Rent, gasoline, health care, education, government "protection" are.
"slow_rollin'_trollin'? "
Good one
am/am not going to post.
Jackdawracy wrote:
Bought 12 pairs of Jockey tighty-whitey underware a little over a year ago and half of them have little holes in them from regular washing.
I've probably owned 100 pairs previously, and heretofore, never a problem.
Rents high, housing cheap in Miami.
Can't hardly get a loan.
Made in China?
Clearance rack sales at Kohls are awesome.
True. Lately not as great. And you have to like bright orange with funky stripes. Those are on clearance.
lawyerliz wrote:
A single pair of Levi's cost NZ$130
not_going_to_post wrote:
Schroedinger's Post
edit: better with the umlaut
Comrade Troyski wrote:
Discovered JC Penny's online clearance a few weeks ago. Jackets for $10-$20 bucks. Got a sweet zippered fleece pullover for $5. They basically were giving away the winter stock.
not_going_to_post wrote:
It's an interesting topic! CPI is by-and-large an incremental measurement. The fact that the long term integration of the short increments would lead to largish errors is not surprising, but quantifying how far off is a worthy pursuit.
"slow_rollin'_trollin'? "
Or support_da_scamz
New Z == Kali?
merchants of fear wrote:
Let's just say it is a good thing Tom Stone and I are different sizes.
Jackdawracy wrote:
perhaps you should suspect the toxic nature of your farts?
So, Obama and Romney are liberals?
Boys, keep drinking the kool-aid.
The John Birch Society loves you.
lawyerliz wrote:
Rent is expensive and houses are expensive.
merchants of fear wrote:
Those are Tom's shirts.
lawyerliz wrote:
Minus 40 years in many aspects. Mostly good. Some of their prices mystify me however. Like $130 jeans. And $50/kg salmon.
Don't they have salmon??
lawyerliz wrote:
Yes, just twice as expensive as ours. No data on penguin steaks.
Rob Dawg wrote:
Permanent stimpak for Hawaii? I know Aussies go there just to shop.
Rob Dawg wrote:
Check the current prices for Levis.
Levi's 511™ Skinny Made in the USA Jeans - Raw - New Finishes
Rob Dawg wrote:
Live mussels for NZ$2/Kg.
30 years ago a home in Auckland was $75k and a newer car say 3 years old was closer to $50k (because of restrictive import duties)
Now the home is $500k and the car is closer to $10k
JP wrote:
If inflation is a monetary thing, isn't it at least tied to monetary base and correlated with GDP? Also, if CPI is just a Consumer Index, and not reflective of all prices, why would it be used to value All Dollars?
Full disclosure: Don't listen to me. I haven't got teh economic training. Most of my posts are just cries for help in understanding.
A long time ago, I represented a client who dealt in jeans.
He said the expensive ones were made in the same factory with the same people and the same cloth as the cheap ones. Label different. Don't know if this is still true.
I suppose if you have embroidery or sparkles on them, they might be more. But, maybe not.
lawyerliz wrote:
Introduced, and limited.
I fly fish there, mostly South Island.
Introduced Trout (Brown, and Rainbow), and some of the best fishing on Earth, but not always easy.
scone wrote:
For Aussies, that makes sense. They are the 51st state, after all.
Also on Greece: Golden Dawn (far right) shot themselves in the foot (the face slap incident),
SNL so has to do a skit on that.
Someone please link it if they do.
josap wrote:
Them's mah huntin' shirts. They go real well with the blaze orange vest and the pink urban camo cargo pants. And man, them croc's make comfy shoes!
Jackdawracy wrote:
How do you define "newer"? You obviously haven't been to a new car dealer in NZ.
Ok, so it's imported from far away. Aren't there tasty native fish?
lawyerliz wrote:
The $198. Levis are made in US.
The $98. Levis are made elsewhere.
A newer 3 year old car with 60,000 miles, if you want to get specific.
lawyerliz wrote:
Eels it you are into that.
Great Salt water fishing, with all those tasty treats.
In MA he didn't even have the votes to sustain a veto...the legislature ran the state and he was just along for the ride...
I'm only certain about two things in life.
I'm not voting for Romney, and I'm not voting for Obama.
lawyerliz wrote:
No. The salmon is raised in fisheries here in NZ.
$198?
Seriously?
Antipodes wrote:
[Counts rapidly on fingers and toes... airfare... taxi...]
I'll be right over.
What should I bring in addition to wearing three pair of Levis on the plane? Last time my sister (Aussie) was here she brought her iPad original and went home with and iPad2 in the same old case.
Reasonably priced American made jeans. Very comfy.
American-made Diamond Gusset Jeans | Official Online Store
back to the Hotel Occupancy topic...
In 2010 at this time, we were all watching DWH spewing oil all over the gulf. In 2011, based on vehicle logs, retail fuel prices were spiking up close to $4/gal. This is the first summer since 2009 with no catastrophe, and with fuel prices finally moderating. It may be a collision of decent events for a change.
Naughty Dawg-sister.
Rob Dawg wrote:
Chardonnay, Sonoma County Chardonnay. kate's corner would be a good choice.
Jackdawracy wrote:
A bit cheaper for a 5 year with 50,000 Km from Japan, as the Japanese sell their cars after 5 years. However, the gov't has recently introduced some restrictions on importing "New In NZ" cars from Japan.
New cars are astronomically expensive. I have no idea how people can afford many of the new cars.
I'm trying to convine my wife to drop the satellite and buy a gym membership.
They have tv's on the stationary bikes, it's 2 blocks away, and it would save us
$40 per month. So far she is not convinced.
Way back when, all you needed to do to pay for your Aussie trip was to have about 100 sovereigns with an Australian mintmark on them. Sell them at the first bullion dealer you stopped at in Sydney or Melbourne.
Easy-peasy.
adornosghost wrote:
You say that without admitting the two go hand in hand.
Rob Dawg wrote:
Any outdoor gear. All outdoor gear in NZ costs 3X what you pay for it in the US.
mp wrote:
Yes.
Import taxes on everything?
Rob Dawg wrote:
Rotenone, plastique.
Jackdawracy wrote:
stop using a full cup of the new concentrated detergent (no
)....or, stop washing them in the crick.....
Antipodes wrote:
Me-ow. Are we just an itsy bitsy tad jealous in the cutesy teeny weeny country? :pats Kiwis head:
Tom Stone wrote:
NZ makes some decent Chardonnay, believe it or not. You just have to go for a bit higher price range per bottle, say, > NZ$20.
Outsider wrote:
As a Californian it is easy. My vote(s) make less than no difference. Structural disenfranchisement.
President Romney thanks you.
I remember how proud an aged round metal disc dealer in Wellington was of his 1978 Mercedes 240D that thanks to Bunker Hunt machinations with the silver market, he was able to purchase for $70k in 1981. You never saw a new car on the road back then and seldom do you now..
lawyerliz wrote:
Greedy distributors and retailers.
scone wrote:
Thanks, they even carry my size.
there's the moral argument about overall vote share though.
So there is some difference in the social-political sphere.
I do tell mom her vote isn't worth stressing over. If Romney is taking California he won't have needed the EVs.
Imported hard liquor is 50-150% more than here.
scone wrote:
Jealous? Of Australia? Hahahahaahahahhaa!!!1!
No.
lawyerliz wrote:
In my salad days I worked the "warehouse sale" for a well know DC leather goods outfit......found several jackets with the "Made in USA" label stitched on top of the Korean one.....
Rob Dawg wrote:
You are right--
a feature not a bug.
Just back in Sonoma after 9 days in The Village in NYC.
I think I'm on a different planet.
Jackdawracy wrote:
Are you kidding? The city of chock full of new, expensive European import cars. Brand new off the lot. They pay astronomical prices for them. Like I said, I have no idea how these people can afford them.
Outsider wrote:
The $198. Levis ...
$198?
Seriously?
There is inflation. Inflation is.
I can't begin to understand how a country where the people make 2/3rds of what people make here on average, can afford $50k new cars that aren't all that.
Maybe they are 'designer jeans'.
Antipodes wrote:
Kate's Corner goes for a bit more than that IF you can get a bottle. Good stuff.
Antipodes wrote:
You'd hate our local craigslist:
Osprey Exos 34 pack
kayak
Coleman 10 person tent weathermaster retails for 300 BRAND NEW IN BOX
Hi-Tec 2 Man Tent
Red Rock Ghillie Suit Woodland Camo XL/XXL
adornosghost wrote:
It's certainly a different "Reality".
Rob Dawg wrote:
No XXXXL? Need bigger sizes for the mall ninjas.
JP wrote:
I just tried this inflation calculator as it allows you to vary indexes.
Tom's Inflation Calculator
I used CPI-W for gas as gas obviously isn't subject to substitution and hedonics which IMO justifiably reduces the index and would result in a somewhat understated value.
Clerical Workers (CPI-W) on a monthly basis. We use the CPI-W to annually adjust benefits paid to Social Security beneficiaries and Supplemental Security Income recipients.
Gas at approx. $1.00 in 1980 would now be $3.03. Quiet reasonable.
Now I did the same calculation using the Shadowstats option: $10.72. Not so reasonable.
At least here the government wins.
Philip Pilkington: Nobel Laureate Paul Krugman Selectively Quotes Rival to Stitch Him Up After Losing Argument « naked capitalism
I agree with Nick Rowe's critique here though:
Worthwhile Canadian Initiative: "The supply of money is demand-determined"