Unexpected this is...

Nemo wrote:

My personal bet is late 2084

Mook wrote:

FOMC Statement:: Rates likely exceptionally low until we are overtaken by events

and :dang:

Ben admits the economy sucks and Obama is full of shit.

Way to foster deflation, Bernanke. ZIRP4EVA

reply to picosec re Japanese fossil fuel issues:

I don't have the figures at the moment, but think of the hype about China's fuel imports and then remember that Japan has been a significantly larger industrial sector for a long time.

Shill...you buying up AG or something? To the moon, Alice!

Bought AG days ago ,,Fed speak we blah blah blah, and we care blah blah blah.

Look at the market ha ha ha go team!

Comrade Janošik wrote:

Disgusting.

W(the little saving and tax paying people)ASS

Can I haz iPad?

What is this dual mandate they keep talking about? Have they ever been concerned with unemployment at the same intensity as they have been concerned that a working person may be getting a raise?

Gotta run but anecdotally it seems that the public in Japan are unlikely to put up with restarting a bunch of reactors anytime soon. Total loss of credibility of the govt and industry leaders regarding reliability, obviously.

[exceptionally low levels for the federal funds rate at least through late 2014]

GO TBT!

CR quoted:

Voting against the action was Jeffrey M. Lacker, who preferred to omit the description of the time period over which economic conditions are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels of the federal funds rate.

I sure hope this guy doesn't have a dog or cat at home. Because in his shoes I'd certainly be in the mood to kick something after sitting through these meetings.

Rates likely exceptionally low through late 2014

Key word here........LIKELY Ben playing the both sides of the mouth speak for safety.

Former Idealist wrote:

real investments in economic growth.

They're struggling to keep the status quo, but it's leaking out.
Growth is over if you want it.

(Psst...I do)

nova wrote:

Isn't the reason they are doing this is to assuage the fears of small businesses? They can borrow and not worry?

No. They are doing this to assuage the fears of lenders. Businesses other than banks can't get 0% loans.

Growth is over if you want it.

The ponzi relies on growth, and inflation and mass illusion.

Just wait to see what happens to AG when QE3 is announced Shill!

Former Idealist wrote:

The ponzi relies on growth

I know. .

Seems like Japan will have to bring the plants back on line - like it or not. At least until if/when they transition to God knows what.
That's alot of useful/wasted capacity.

nova wrote:

Isn't the reason they are doing this is to assuage the fears of small businesses? They can borrow and not worry?

Small Business Confidence Inches Upward: While Economic Winter Continues, It Appears to be Getting Warmer | NFIB

FTA:

Access to credit continues to rank at the bottom of concerns, with only 4 percent reporting financing as their No. 1 business problem. Ninety-three (93) percent of owners reported that all their credit needs were met or that they were not interested in borrowing. Seven percent reported that not all of their credit needs were satisfied, the record low is 4 percent, reached in 2000.

So what is the primary concern of those small businesses, you ask?

In spite of reports of improving retail sales in the fourth quarter of 2011, 23 percent of owners reported “weak sales” as their top business problem.

Those silly small businesses. If only they'd been savvy enough to be large banks instead, they could get massive zero-interest loans, pay themselves huge bonuses from the proceeds, and not have to worry about picayune matters like sales.

Just wait to see what happens to AG when QE3 is announced Shill!

Yes indeed. In the mean time add to your position on the dips if you have the ability to do so.

( In hand is nice as well )

Seems like Japan will have to bring the plants back on line

Easier just to close down manufacturing.

with fisher and plosser out of the way ... won't have to worry about barney frank crying that election of fed prezes needs to be in DC hands.

Yancey Ward wrote:

Trapped they are. We really need a Yoda smiley.

Illinois AG sues S&P over ratings fraud - MarketWatch

LMAO!..WE NEED MONEY!!!!!!!!!!!!!

RATM wrote:

4,151 citizens owe €14.9 billion to the state
Only €359,000 per, not bad.

Ummmm no, it's €3.6M each. That's a pretty big lump of taxes.
I don't know if they're multiple years behind or not, but the income and assets must be in the multi-million as well.
Seems like you could just seize their assets (houses, oil tankers?) if in the possession of a set of stones.

From Mary: EU ministers agree new bail-out fund, criticise Greece 

shill wrote:

Isn't that the plan? and then the big round up? I look forward to meeting you all.

Here's your arm band to be worn at all times:

            == ==

Nice Try, President Obama. Breuer and Khuzami Have to Go. And Indictments Have to Be Immediate. « Reality Check

Funny... I love Abigail... She tells government officials what to do. LOL

So I ask this Congress to join me in doing whatever proves necessary. Because we cannot consign our nation to an open-ended recession. And to ensure that a crisis of this magnitude never happens again, I ask Congress to move quickly on legislation that will finally reform our outdated regulatory system. It is time to put in place tough, new common-sense rules of the road so that our financial market rewards drive and innovation, and punishes short-cuts and abuse.

~ BHO SoTU 2009

The US economy is going nowhere.

Sorry, no hyperinflation, just a lot of grinding deflation.

Debt and deleveraging: Uneven progress on the path to growth | McKinsey Global Institute | Financial Markets | McKinsey & Company 

Meanwhile, the situation in Europe is going to hell in a handbasket.

Don't take my word for it, let Otmar Issing, one of the euro's architects, lay it all out for you.

Interview: «Der Fall Griechenland ist hoffnungslos» - News Wirtschaft: Unternehmen - bazonline.ch

And yet crude and food charge onward.

Nisssan building a new plant in Mexico.

The Paul Detainment and Metastasizing Executive Power: Another Progressive Triumph by William L. Anderson

I can haz oil shock?

energyecon wrote:

Natural Gas Spike? Don't Trust It

I purchase my natural gas frozen into the shape of coins. It's much easier to deal with that way.

Former Idealist wrote:

Nisssan building a new plant in Mexico.

Aguascalientes is like 600 miles from the border. Wow.

Isn't 2014 a Winter Olympic year? That makes sense to wait until after the Winter Olympics.

The Committee is maintaining its existing policies of reinvesting principal payments from its holdings of agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities in agency mortgage-backed securities and of rolling over maturing Treasury securities at auction. The Committee will regularly review the size and composition of its securities holdings and is prepared to adjust those holdings as appropriate to promote a stronger economic recovery in a context of price stability.

Dammit. Make the banks buy back all their crap already.

What don't they make a statement about the quality of gov't cheese while they are at it. Something like "Gov't cheese will remain exceptionally free through late 2014 for the 75% of Americans who qualify." Give the masses a sense of tranquility for a couple of years.

Gold shorts getting spanked.

Gold
1,697 +32 +1.91%

Oman wrote:

Dammit. Make the banks buy back all their crap already.

But how does that help the banks?

Buy back now or be priced out forever.

From Gary North on Kodak, and progress itself:

The reality of the marketplace is this: if you stick with producing whatever is old, no matter how high its quality, your market will shrink, one funeral at a time.

Kodak Moments: Out of Focus by Gary North

Yancey Ward wrote:

Trapped they are. We really need a Yoda smiley.

true dat...

The Committee will regularly review the size and composition of its securities holdings and is prepared to adjust those holdings as appropriate to promote a stronger economic recovery in a context of price stability.

just seemed like yesterday (Q1 2010) when CR had a parade of posts from various fed reserve presidents on shrinking the balance sheet.

Well, it only makes sense. We need investment in productive capacity and a lower dollar to remain competitive worldwide. ZIRP is a good approach, at least for now, to keep this inevitable adjustment process going.

Raising interest rates would be utterly foolish in this environment.

Gold
1,701 +36 +2.16

ZIRP is a good approach, at least for now, to keep this inevitable adjustment process going.

too bad - according to trimtabs - that MNCs are using cheap debt to buy back their stock.

Executive suite bonuses FTW!

More good news.

EU ratchets up pressure with Greek default threat - Telegraph

The only question I have is this- when does the Fed go from promising ZIRP for 2 years ahead to 5?

The head of the European Commission's economics team Mario Buti said Brussels is prepared to allow credit default swaps (CDS) on Greek bonds to come into play if talks fail to reach a deal that gives Greece enough debt relief to claw its way back to viability. "Triggering CDS may have to be considered," he said.

The nuclear option.

black dog wrote:

too bad - according to trimtabs - that MNCs are using cheap debt to buy back their stock.

Executive suite bonuses FTW!

You handle your issue via tax policy not by constricting necessary investment and coverall competitiveness. See the Obama speech yesterday.

The Fed. released their "exit stratigy"
Here it is.....

Final Exit - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Cinco-X wrote:

Kodak is a classic story of a fat and sassy firm

Fat and firm are contradictory terms. That guy doesn't make any sense.

mp wrote:

Triggering CDS may have to be considered," he said.

The nuclear option.

Perhaps the only viable option...but on the bright side, it'll probably be something like a neutron bomb...debt will be obliterated while assets remain...

So, small savers subsidize the wealthy. But do the wealthy ever stop WHINING?

Millionaires Won't Sit Still for Higher Taxes

Nobody seems to ask the question why dividends and capital gains are taxed at preferential rates. The simple answer is that they have already been taxed once, and their seeming tax breaks are applied to income being taxed a second time.

And I suppose my savings account isn't? And, puh-lease "seeming tax breaks" - see Romney, Mitt, 13.1% tax rate on tens of millions.

Comrade Janošik wrote:

Ron would get the Kennedy treatment rather quickly.

Wouldn't have to - he'd have the other two branches of gov't thoroughly opposed so nothing he wants would get done. Four year gridlock.

Given status quo would tPTB really mind that much?

You handle your issue via tax policy not by constricting necessary investment and coverall competitiveness.

raising rates a half point not constricting ... low rates lead to malinvestment ... better to give savers a break.

shill - a good deal of AG buying coming out of the ME

Agreed BR

Pellice wrote:

see Romney, Mitt, 13.1% tax rate on tens of millions.

I'm sure Mitt causes greater wear and tear on the roads, uses public schools more, and needs more military protection than a person who makes much less. In fact, I bet he costs $3 million a more than the average taxpayer. Maybe he should pay $10 million more, because all that money is heavy and breaks down sidewalks when he goes on walks. Sidewalks are expensive, you know.

Yancey Ward wrote:

And watch that 10Y go, baby!

Just wait till they peg even lower yields to 2025.

Don't think of it that way - think of it as giving a little nudge to the culture of dependency as the oldest boomers hit 65. We can't have them getting a risk-free 5%! Then they might have a tiny bit of their ability to survive from a source that isn't directly controlled by the federales.

It is truly mindblowing how cheap electronics have become - bought a 40" TV and a HDMI DVD player at my local bigbox this week (zero comparison shopping), total cost, under $400.

mp wrote:

The nuclear option

@MP - would this not suggest that they are now confident that any of the counterparties who might get killed via a CDS payout are now adequately hedged or have access to a suitable amount of liquidity?

Pellice wrote:

Nobody seems to ask the question why dividends and capital gains are taxed at preferential rates. The simple answer is that they have already been taxed once, and their seeming tax breaks are applied to income being taxed a second time.

So establish a combined taxation rate equal to the top marginal rate plus a few percentage points - call it 40%.

Any dividends or cap gains received from a company in a given year are then taxed at that combined rate minus the actual tax rate paid by that company that year. So cap gains on a small US-based public company paying full freight of 35% are only taxed at 5% on the recipient's 1040.

And then there's GE, where forty percent minus a negative ten percent equals ...

sm_landlord wrote:

They did not need to change course. They had very nice digital cameras ready to go in the late 1990s. They had teams working on various film replacement technologies, and the products could have shipped. But they shot themselves in both feet. I think the shareholders would have gone along happily if they had shipped the fruits of their R&D.

Trade leaner quarters for fatter decades? There was never any debate. R&D is a cost. Executive bonuses are an investment.

black dog wrote:

is it time to start calculating the total square feet that Penney's leases?

Those leases are assets as they can sublease their space for twice the amount in this robust retail environment.

The simple answer is that they have already been taxed once, and their seeming tax breaks are applied to income being taxed a second time.

A-Rod probably spent millions of post-tax dollars in training, equipment, nutrition, etc to become a $20M/year franchise.

greenchutes wrote:

It is truly mindblowing how cheap electronics have become - bought a 40" TV and a HDMI DVD player at my local bigbox this week (zero comparison shopping), total cost, under $400.

http://www.compusa.com/applications/searchtools/item-Details.asp?EdpNo=1797702&sku=A330-4000%20RB&SRCCODE=CUEM1028C&cm_mmc=email--Main--CUEM1028-_-compusaemail1028&utm_source=EML&utm_medium=main&utm_campaign=CUEM1028

1080p!

Pellice wrote:

Nobody seems to ask the question why dividends and capital gains are taxed at preferential rates. The simple answer is that they have already been taxed once, and their seeming tax breaks are applied to income being taxed a second time.

That argument works for dividends, but not capital gains.

greenchutes wrote:

It is most likely that the Fed won't exist in its current form before rates go back over a couple of points.

Word.

mp wrote:

I know where that number comes from and I'm not buying.

Oh, there's not a chance in hell I believe that number. Not a chance.

It's the credo of "watch what I do, not what I say".

If there's a single mosquito buzzing around inside a house and yet the owners are too scared to go inside, it's a pretty safe bet that mosquito's carrying malaria. Or worse.

Mr Slippery wrote:

That argument works for dividends, but not capital gains.

So you suggest cap gains be taxed at the regular income rates but adjusted for inflation?

Gubbmint Cheese wrote:

@MP - would this not suggest that they are now confident that any of the counterparties who might get killed via a CDS payout are now adequately hedged or have access to a suitable amount of liquidity?

Gubb, I think they're only concerned about the preservation of their banks, the large institutions, the large corporations.

They're prepared to watch Greece burn.

Unfortunately, what they aren't prepared to understand is that it will re-price risk across the EU.

dryfly wrote:

I would agree with that - frankly I am not certain the Fed exists now in what we think is its current form.

After citizens united I am certain our democracy no longer exists in what we think is its current form.

In fact, it looks like TV technology is going to stall out

how many people really need a 60" 3-D web-enabled TV? huge difference between a CRT and any HD flatscreen. not so much going forward.

I buy stocks.

I buy lottery tickets, too.

Mr Slippery wrote:

That argument works for dividends, but not capital gains.

It works on cap gains, too. The only fix required is to eliminate step up in inheritances.

sm_landlord wrote:

OTOH, disk drives are crazy expensive and in short supply because some doofus over-optimized a supply chain through one flood-prone area of Thailand.

I am so looking forward to the whipsaw on the other side. Let's see, RAID 5x 3Tb SATA 6Gb/s drives for 12Tb redundant. Nice.

Cool story - pardon the anti-:

In the era of big boxes, a day for the little guy - Yahoo! Finance

Rob Dawg wrote:

So you suggest cap gains be taxed at the regular income rates but adjusted for inflation?

I think cap gains tax rates are too low, but I would have to study the issue for some time to be comfortable suggesting a new rate. Our tax code is so messed up, changing one thing in isolation won't help much. I should not be paying a higher rate than Romney. GE should not be paying $0 on billions of profits.

"Thanks to Jimmy Black," he said. "Thanks to everyone. Thanks to Chagrin Falls.

Thanks to George Bailey.

Rob Dawg wrote:

I am so looking forward to the whipsaw on the other side. Let's see, RAID 5x 3Tb SATA 6Gb/s drives for 12Tb redundant. Nice.

I have 20 empty slots waiting for that opportunity, and thinking about adding more. It might be a while, though, as I expect the PC vendors to rebuild inventory ASAP when product becomes available again.

Time to shampoo the camel. Later.

sm_landlord wrote:

But they paid for the R&D anyway. They just never shipped the products!

My dad used to calibrate their artworks camera. It was a room with its own building. My dad repaired printing equipment by trade and this camera was closer to that than anything else. We are talking 1:1 negatives of full sized masterpieces.

Rob Dawg wrote:

Let's see, RAID 5x 3Tb SATA 6Gb/s drives for 12Tb redundant. Nice.

Given real world failure rates Raid5 is a very bad idea.

One of the most perfect game designs in history - and from the same company at the same time as the alpha to its omega, Defender, IIRC.

Same design team: Jarvis/Demar

Gubbmint Cheese wrote:

Just spit balling.. but I smell a rat.

It's certainly possible and I've no doubt that a number of dead rats will float to the surface before this is over.

Have a great day.

If RP does well in the west - which he may well - it really is a wide open field. Romney could be gone if super tuesday is a bust, and Newt is clearly unelectable. Ron has a fair amount of cash and is on the VA ballot.

sm_landlord wrote:

yuan wrote:

Given real world failure rates Raid5 is a very bad idea.

It's not that bad if you keep the drive count low. But I use RAID 1 mirrors in a lot of cases now that larger drives are (were) available.

+1 answer.

My 5x 3Tb RAID 5 would be for movies and music. Minimal writes, lots of idle. 2000 movies, 10,000 hours of audio.

al the Fed has to say is the economy is still weak!

ahh, but it would be MUCH weaker if the Fed had taken any other course of action*

*OIF defense

yuan wrote:

Given real world failure rates Raid5 is a very bad idea.

+1000 on that. I've personally witnessed corporate systems been taken to their knees because the alleged "100% up-time" Raid 5 SAN had only two 2 simultaneous failures and puked. That was one of those "that can NEVER happen" moments.
~splat

All income taxed identically regardless of source.

long-term capital gains in Beanie Babies is taxed 2X "normal" investment assets.

RE wrote:

Well, it only makes sense

Welcome back, RE! Missed your insights over here.

Basel Too wrote:

long-term capital gains in Beanie Babies is taxed 2X "normal" investment assets.

And the Beanie Baby market cap is how large? This could be a seriously unfair giveaway to Beanie Baby horders who might destabilize our economy.

splat wrote:

I've personally witnessed corporate systems been taken to their knees because the alleged "100% up-time" Raid 5 SAN had only two 2 simultaneous failures and puked.

They probably had 15 drives in the array. You have to use RAID 6 and mix drives from various batches if you hope to keep something like that running.

All income taxed identically regardless of source.

Ah.. but investment earnings aren't really income. They're the meager reward for brave job-creators embracing capitalism and staking everything on risky investments that cause the economy to grow and create the much needed jobs. We must reward these job-creators with a 0% tax on their hard earned capital gains.
~splat

mp wrote:

Here's another fun graph.
http://omrpublic.iea.org/demand/us_gs_dg.pdf 

mp,

Have you taken a look at the plots for diesel? It has been growing while mogas demand has been cratering...

Rob Dawg wrote:

Still doesn't address cap gains due to inflation. Price of a suit in ounces of gold anyone?

My view. I object to Cap Gains being drastically less than regular income because it makes NOT working more attractive than working. Whether due to inflation, housing market madness, or a stock surge, a huge chunk of the CG gains realized are without ANY effort on the part of the person getting those profits.

I see no injustice, unfairness or unreasonableness to taxing a 2nd, 5th or 147th time if no effort was expended and no productive activity was taken by the party netting those profits.

As for inflation. If I make a thousand dollars and put it in a mattress, and the price of everything doubles, I've still got a thousand dollars, (even if it only worth $500). But, if a stock or property doubles in value, (equaling inflation), then even if taxed at 50%, instead of $2000, I walk away with $1,500 ... and I personally didn't DO anything more than put the money in a mattress.

Mind you, I would be more than willing to tax actual investment in new businesses, technologies, start ups, etc. on a different scale. But, too much of the current CGs generated are simply via people bidding up the same piece of paper because they think somebody tomorrow will pay more for it.

Historically, things seemed to work better when CG rates were 25-28%. My own view is that if CG rates and top income rates are in the same neighborhood the overall system seems to work better and you tend to get less money madness. But, I think the real issue might be more in line of what gets defined as a CG. Are winnings in Vegas considered CG or income?