Housing Starts decline slightly in October
Submitted by
CalculatedRisk on Thu, 11/17/2011 - 6:52am (149 comments)
Shopping at Amazon?
Wait! If you click on one of the Amazon links below first, HCN will get a percentage of anything you purchase for 24 hours!
Open predictions
Our local book authors
User login
Who's online
There are currently 15 members and 109 guests online.
Recent Recommendations
Tanta vive!
more houses, ugh.
It's a
fest.
seriously pigged.
Some big spec homes going up on infill in No. VA. They seem to be finishing up most of them. Something happy must have been in the water about a year ago
Clearly multi-family has picked up - of course that was expected this year.
Single family is still moving sideways, but I expect some pickup there too going forward (ignoring Yurp).
Just because there are millions of distressed homes doesn't mean there is no need for new homes. It is household compared to excess vacant units that matters for new homes (plus some people will always want a new home).
Another point: we have seen a string of mostly upside economic data in the U.S. for a number of weeks (and upside housing for a couple of months). Ex-Yurp that would be a little good news.
nova wrote:
You didn't hear about the
?
Is there anything inherently wrong with "moving sideways"?
The new normal.
I think we better hope for a mild Winter here in the mid-atlantic. With high fuel input costs, construction companies are simply not going to keep people on the payroll without max output. Moving around frozen dirt doesn't make anybody money in good times.
BUt they declined from such a high level...
CalculatedRisk wrote:
like a squirt gun on a five alarm fire
the melt down continues while we dance round the embers of a dieing fire
The rental market is doing rather nicely.....for landlords.
And I am not talking about cheap rentals, I am talking about a base of over 3000 dollars/month.
The demand of in-town living is quite high.
RiF,
These are 1M plus houses usually. Maybe they are for refugee Europeans, the new displaced people of the world, victims of financial war
nova - You know this set of economic data does not apply to the 1%. They have their own set, on their own blog.
Outsider wrote:
.....if you do it fast enough, you might fly over small pot holes, but yerp's lookin like a bigun
Outsider,
I am sorry.
The second graph goes back to 1968 with no year going below the 500K line in total starts - what years WERE normal for typical 1/2-million building starts? 1950s? early 60s?
nova wrote:
It's amusing to me when I read propaganda insisting we somehow learned our lessons from the financial crisis and are going to play nice and be more responsible now. You can't put the debt back in the box once you've opened it.
"Just because there are millions of distressed homes doesn't mean there is no need for new homes."
I would venture to say that most of the truly distressed homes are in places where no one wants to live anymore.
You think Greenwich real estate is hurting?
I don't think so.
CalculatedRisk wrote:
Well, yeah - an empty pie chart doesn't get any emptier.......
I simply cant believe the images of how protected WS is.
Black Star Ranch wrote:
coming soon to city halls and state capitols everywhere
Even - or maybe especially - Greenwich has seen some changes. A number of former residents aren't sure they want to live quite that way, or live that way quite so openly.
Some genuine peculiarities for sale in the area.
Eric wrote:
volker the viking wrote:
BBC News - Syria conflict 'similar to civil war', Russia says
Eric wrote:
one more effect of nine one one. The new anti-terrist poh-lease state. Welcome to the new 'merica. Abbreviated, just like your freedom.
Theme music :
YouTube - The Groceries - Part of a New America
Turkey sends a peacekeeping force backed by the Arab League and financed partially by the Saudis next week?
got pigged...
sum luk wrote:
On the off chance you haven't run across this already: Those MF Global MFs! | Global Macro Monitor
Most of the traders I know have returned to the pits or screens following negotiating deals with new firms.
The article you linked captures much of the angst associated with the MF Global BK. But yesterday news circulated that the MF Global trustee had asked the BK judge to release 60% of the funds in frozen accounts which contain only cash. Previously these accounts have been completely frozen. So conditions are getting better than the trader in the link described. But there is still a long way to go...
But as far as I know, the 60% has not yet been agreed to by the judge.
energyecon wrote:
So, you don't think it's money coming in from the sidelines?
The trouble with France -
The Term Sheet: Fortune's deals blog
Term Sheet
"France's high labor costs seem to be behind the drop off in exports. The Germans have trounced the French in both internal and external eurozone trade. France is actually helping the Germans win in two ways. First, it has allowed its workforce to become less competitive. In 2000, French workers were paid 8% less than German workers. Now, French workers are paid 10% more than German workers. Second, France runs a trade deficit with Germany of around 1 billion euros a month. That is a complete reversal from 2004 when it was Germany that was running the billion-euro-a-month trade deficit with France."
...But it is not about housing starts in the US now..it is about Euro financial porn, and it certainly seems to be coming to a head. France will find it has to accept its place in the barnyard with the other piigs...these problems are not going away, as there truly seems to be only one winner in Europe now.
another effect of same
Cities coordinating crackdowns on Occupy Wall Street with the Federal Government.
seems the gauleiters have some friends
Black Star Ranch wrote:
It's interesting as well since at this rate we will see increasing pressure on negative household formation and growth in average household size as population growth is clearly exceeding housing growth. This pattern will continue until the housing market is priced appropriately.
BarleyReturns wrote:
They wish to prevent NYC from turning into a place that only Snake Plissken would want to visit.
OWS has blocked the entrance to the NYSE.
Announced opening bell will be delayed.
Any news stories on this?
Also Philly cop arrested by NYPD in the protest area. No clue if he was protesting or just a by-stander.
Eric wrote:
About as likely as this:
Newt Gingrich, on the rise, says, ‘Hopefully, I’m going to be more disciplined’ - The Washington Post
volker the viking wrote:
Now wait until they discover they can make money doing this, and the 'strategic partnerships' really kick into gear.
Private mercenary armies FTW!
OWS claims opening bell is delayed.
Occupy Wall Street | NYC Protest for American Revolution
Mentioned some guy in bum fvck who couldn't buy grocries & pay bills cause the $ are frozen.
I'm wondering how this guy ended up asssociated with MF?
volker the viking wrote:
we always knew here that it would come to this once the protests started - it was never about fightin ferners.
Blockading the NYSE is largely symbolic. The overwhelming majority of trading is done from a desk somewhere else, now. Bless their hearts for trying, though I'm not exactly sure what they are protesting with this.
The99Percent wrote:
HCN! Kick 'em out of the park and they go and make trouble elsewhere.
The99Percent wrote:
Our
markets are glorious!
Our volume peaked here in this area back in 2005/6. We are actually having a decent fall. The first one in 5 years. I don't think we will see volumes like 2005/6 for many,many years...
Chris
Italy’s Monti hints he won’t launch vicious austerity cuts - The Globe and Mail
Thursday, Nov. 17, 2011 9:12AM EST
"As Mr. Monti was delivering his speech, thousands of protesters, many of them students, took to the streets of Milan, Rome and Palermo, Sicily. Clashes with police resulted in several injuries and one journalist was hurt. The protests were aimed at the austerity measures and what the Milan protesters called Mr. Monti’s new “bankers’ government”
Things are starting to get interesting.
energyecon wrote:
Oh... I believe he'll be more disciplined.
At hiding the bodies.
The Lorax wrote:
Chris,
OT Question. Do you have any opinion on the quality of late model Honda 5 and 6 speed AT's?
energyecon wrote:
For lack of a better sentiment, this article just strikes me as outrageously funny, in an absurd sort of way.
Project on Student Debt: Student Debt and the Class of 2010
Two-thirds of college seniors graduated with loans in 2010, and they carried an average of $25,250 in debt. They also faced the highest unemployment rate for young college graduates in recent history at 9.1%. Our new report, Student Debt and the Class of 2010, includes average debt levels for the 50 states and District of Columbia and for more than 1,000 U.S. colleges and universities.
(goes on from there to link to a .pdf)
NH has the highest student loan debt per graduate.
RockyR wrote:
Yes, another thing J6P needs to know.
Awareness.
energyecon wrote:
That's gonna cost extra!
Yahoo says there are only 500 people marching on the NYSE ... surely it's more than that?
Wall Street clashes start Occupy's day of action - CBS News
ResistanceIsFeudal wrote:
I liked this one: Startled Deer Becomes New Republican Frontrunner « Borowitz Report
Bubblisimo Gerkinov wrote:
Live vid feed
globalrevolution - live streaming video powered by Livestream
I'd missed this blog entry from yesterday...
NYPD Occupying Liberty Square; Demands Unclear | OccupyWallSt.org
That's some good, effective humor right there.
Ratings agency Fitch issues warning for U.S. banks - The Globe and Mail
Thursday, Nov. 17, 2011 6:21AM EST
"Fitch Ratings warned that it may reduce its “stable” rating outlook for U.S. banks with large capital markets businesses because of contagion from problems in troubled European markets.
“Unless the euro zone debt crisis is resolved in a timely and orderly manner, the broad outlook for U.S. banks will darken,” Fitch said. “The risks of a negative shock are rising.”
Yalt wrote:
I think it is pretty funny.
Either OWS occupies the park or NYPD occupy the park.
24/7, in the snow.
Bubblisimo Gerkinov wrote:
That's the police march.
BarleyReturns wrote:
Plus the nutters are taking shots at the decoy Pols, and not them. A cunning plan!
None. I'm no good at da goog but normally you can find something. Just remember the bad ones get amplified out of proportion sometimes.
If you would have asked me about Mercedes or Allison I could have helped.
Chris
Wow... I just saw some of the footage from Wall Street this morning.
And yesterday Bill O'Reilly was saying the movement was now dead.
I guess this is OWS zombie movement.
RockyR wrote:
....that's the problem...... 1. Start with a easily understood cause....... 2. Advise all protesters of #1.
Middle-class areas shrinking in US: study - Yahoo! News
shrinkage
tg wrote:
not good, ever
Central banks make biggest gold buy in decades - The Globe and Mail
Eric wrote:
Speaking of...you have mail...
RockyR wrote:
I'd argue that it is specifically symbolic. Symbolism plays a HUGE part in street protests - its communication ( I'm sure they are scientific papers on it, but I'd recall articles in the Indian FRontier magazine, assorted essays by Lenin and Mao. I'm sure they are essays by slightly less shady individuals - gawd bless America - perhaps one by Benjamin Franklin on the Boston Tea party ?
).
I agree "bless their hearts".
the content of the communication ? That Wall Street caused this mess, and profited from it at my expense - As I put it to a colleague.. its not that they make a 100 bucks/ minute ( 10 million a year ) while you make probably between 1 and 2 /minute that is annoying, its that 99 of those bucks are STOLEN from the likes of you and me.
I dare them to try and take delivery.
josap wrote:
Right on time. They gotta serve the
tg wrote:
One Quarter Of Workers Expect To Retire In Their 80s
The next financial crisis will be hellish, and it’s on its way - Yahoo! News
"Think about that for a moment. The Fed's entire balance sheet totaled around $800 billion before the 2008 crash, nearly all of it Treasuries. Now the Fed holds more than double that amount in mortgage derivatives alone, junk that the banks needed to clear off their own balance sheets.
"As the size of the Fed's balance sheet ballooned," continues Mr. Pento, "the dollar amount of capital held at the Fed has remained fairly constant. Today, the Fed has $52.5 billion of capital backing a $2.7 trillion balance sheet.
"Prior to the bursting of the credit bubble, the public was shocked to learn that our biggest investment banks were levered 30-to-1. When asset values fell, those banks were quickly wiped out. But now the Fed is holding many of the same types of assets and is levered 51-to-1! If the value of their portfolio were to fall by just 2%, the Fed itself would be wiped out."
...and yet, I keep reading about these goofy ideas that the EU wants to lever their bailout monies....such babes-in-the-woods...where do they get these radical ideas?
It's getting uglier
Police start brutal arrests at OWS protest (VIDEO) — RT
Rickkk wrote:
I guess
isn't on speaking terms today.
Eric wrote:
As long as he qualifies that with "who is eligible to run for the Presidency"
The US is Now a Corporate Monarchy | The Big Picture
A good description of the state of affairs.
4 years ago and it seems like yesterday. This is really dragging out a long time.
It looks like Nationalisation can work.
How hard would it be for OWS to just flash mob one intersection at a time, blocking them for 5-10 minutes in both directions before traffic was deadlocked? Same thing with subways, just block the doors for a minute or two on some critical stops and the whole thing goes sideways.
Bruce wrote
the Fed has $52.5 billion of capital backing a $2.7 trillion balance sheet
Occupy the Algos.
Rickkk:
I find myself interested in nearly everything you post...
....What in the hell is wrong with you, then?
Chris, thank you.
Cinco-X wrote:
I have a document that comes from The Men in Black that says he comes from another planet ruled by lizards. So he qualifies.
Isn't there at least 1 HCNer live on the scene, protesting, that could report real time on the stunning achievements the OWS movement is making ?
If the sole purpose was to disrupt, that would work. If the purpose is to create visual symbolism, it doesn't convey a picture of mass resistance--it'd be easy to denigrate as the work of a couple of mentally-ill malcontents.
Bruce in Tennessee wrote:
Worse, it will be happening in these cultures that are purely materialistic and have no alternative philosophy for coping with crises except comforting themselves with shopping frenzies.
The real danger now is that a deep economic crisis in these materialistic secular cultures could result in profound nihilism.
The danger of nihilism, of course, is complete break down of law, order and social structure.
Nanoo-Nanoo wrote:
That was supposed to be a jab at Clinton....but it's all in good fun...
Nanoo-Nanoo wrote:
There's ANOTHER planet ruled by lizards?
Yalt wrote:
and that would be different from the reporting now?
I am in contact with more than one that are on the scene. The accomplishment was to finally breakthrough the media blackout of how the 1% rules the world and owns us all. Now that the conversation has begun...it can't be stopped.
bearly wrote:
speaking of stunning achievements....
House passes concealed carry gun bill - - CBS News
How does that create jobs?
Comrade Kristina wrote:
Ohh, look, black friday!
I think the NYC traffic systems have become somewhat resilient out of necessity. Shutting down traffic would be pretty counterproductive for them anyway since it's mostly just going to be hindering working people.
Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis: To Save the Euro we Must Destroy Germany
Oman wrote:
Hmmm.. I'm not totally against that view but the # are:
But I'm sure the totally unfettered, no regulation free-marketeers will blame that loss on... ta dahhh - nationalization ! Strictly speaking, that's true.. though crony capitalism would be more like it cos who bought the bank ?
RIchard "Pickle" Branson - best buddies of.. uknowwho. The rise of this shady spiv ( i seem to recall a conviction for fraud in his early days ) to his current heights is remarkable.
Rickkk wrote:
The other three quarters will be dead by then.
Fitch Rattles Market Again, This Time With Warning on Italy - MarketBeat - WSJ
NOVEMBER 17, 2011, 9:36 AM ET
"Fitch, which yesterday doused the US stock market with a gigantic tub of sad by warning about the possible effects of a euro-zone meltdown on US banks, is at it again today, this time warning about Italy.
The rating agency is again not saying anything that should surprise people who have higher-than-vegetable-level intelligence..."
Does Bloomberg intend on charging WS for the private security?
Eric wrote:
There's more that one way to reduce the unemployment rate....
Eric wrote:
A case of self-interest? Maybe they figure they are going to need 'em as we transform in the direction of the wild west and/or Colombia but with a different type of cartel running things...
josap wrote:
ResistanceIsFeudal wrote:
It's saying
The Lorax wrote:
"Your papers, please".
Comrade Kristina wrote:
All the toys will come out of the box and people will get broken. Same as it always was.
Cinco-X wrote:
And then America.
These politicians and bankers are taking real risks now.
If what they're doing fails and a reactionary government takes over as a result, they're probably going to be brought up on treason charges for "selling out the people". There will be a populist movement demanding blood.
The Lorax wrote:
at least the reporting now is contradicted by the accompanying images.
the point of civil disobedience is to pose a moral dilemma to bystanders, not simply to irritate them. people are a lot more likely to be sympathetic when they see you being brutalized by a cop for no good reason than when they can't get to work on time and don't even really know why.
Comrade Kristina wrote:
Sounds like, "YES WE CAN" ?
PT Barnum was away ahead of his time. His spirit runs the DNC.
Looks like UniCredit cannot be saved. Trading at a quarter of its book value. Of course a quarter of that book value consists of tax credits against future profitibility. Snigger.
bearly wrote:
It's not the Democrats who have been putting on the circus in the primaries.
Just sayin'.
bearly wrote:
I think the Duke's out there in front with a bullhorn...
skk:
Not sure if you're snarkin; but, the losses where there either way. It just seems better then handing out money for bonuses and prop. trading..
You are truly clueless bearly. This has absolutely zero to do with the DNC. The DNC is scared shitless right now. There is no love for either party in this movement.
ac wrote:
The present scheme seems to be robbing the disenfranchised (the bottom 80-90%) slowly enough for them to become accustomed to it rather than rebelling. At some point, something has to give...
Eric wrote:
Also explains why the midgets and the bearded lady are no where to be found...
josap wrote:
Longevity - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Whelp, gotta get some stuff done, dang it.
Interesting morning.
Thanks all.
Comrade Kristina wrote:
Awareness.
Knowlege.
Power.
Comrade Kristina wrote:
And they should be. I just hope they can manage to get a lot of House seats back because the Senate and WH are burnt toast for the DNC
At some point, a republic of 300 million people must amount to more than palace intrigue.
The Lorax wrote:
It's already been paid for.
Forum Post: JP Morgan chase bank donates 4.6 million to NYPD,coincidence? | OccupyWallSt.org
Hahahaha bearly you are still clueless if your wringing your hands over this election. That really isn't the issue anymore. There's a new Paradigm in town
I wish I could be as encouraged by OWS as some of you folks are; but, in my red state area nobody seems to even knows they exist. Even if they do they don't have a clue what their aims are.
Comrade Kristina wrote:
It may all implode into nothing, but it's better than another empty promise for spare change and dope... Brother, can you paradigm?
Cinco-X wrote:
The "Lenin Plan"!
Oman wrote:
Let's see if we can find him ...
... is that him?
http://images.sodahead.com/polls/002227049/1327795990_protesterpoopsonAmericanFlagGI_xlarge.jpeg
Protesters and Officers Clash Near Wall Street - NYTimes.com
November 17, 2011, 8:13 AM
"Many of those taken into custody were sitting in the street at the corner of Pine and William Streets, a block from the exchange, including one woman in a wheelchair who held an American flag."
YouTube - The Battleship Potemkin - Sergei Eisenstein - 1925 Odessa steps - Rhythmic
City officials say they plan to press criminal charges against those who do not comply with the ban
Turf War? Glendale Bans Fake Grass « CBS Los Angeles
bearly wrote:
Intrade begs to differ on the White House.
Nah. here he is!
http://us.acidcow.com/pics/20111010/classic_occupy_wall_street_protest_signs_19.jpg
Oman wrote:
LOL! Really funny stuff!
How about, they're waiting for the OWSers to figure it out 1st.
Criminal charges!
BarleyReturns wrote:
Isn't there a new prison that needs inmates close by?
Rob Dawg - We seem to have entered some twilight zone - everything is becoming so perverse
Eric wrote:
Well, they gotta keep one of the stool's legs 'cause if all belong to the RNC I'm not gonna like the results any better than I liked the periods when either Dubya or Barry could rule from a throne.
Rob Dawg wrote:
Sweet, we can simultaneously reduce peaceful protests and opposition to the rising corporatocracy while feeding new customers into the unionized prison systems!
bearly wrote:
It's a "COMMODE", dammit!
bearly:
Not really funny. The main point is they still are clueless that WS had any culpability in the finacial meltdown.
I'd be a little happier if I would at least hear "it started as a good idea but now it's a bunch of commies".
At least some acknowledgement of the BS, but no...
BarleyReturns wrote:
Glendale must be a pretty wonderful place if they have enough time on their hands to worry about fake lawns.
BTW ... fake grass putting greens can be very good.
Eric wrote:
dood, don't rain on bearly as he shovels down more
:steamingpile:... just smile and agree with him when he insists it is caviar.