The above attempt at an answer is not correct. For investor held MBS, F&F makes money just from the annual fee and bears no direct interest rate risk. Better to be thought of as a fool yada yada..
Ok, I found a very interesting academic paper written in 2003 about interest rate risk for Fannie and Freddie. Well worth the read.
This probably answers the question posed about interest rate risk hedging.
The default risk premium represents the compensation for future default losses on the
mortgage portfolio, and is reasonably measured by the same guarantee fee that F&F
charge on their investor-held MBS. The residual premium is then that part of the rate
spread not accounted for by default risk. It represents the compensation that F&F receive
for bearing other risks -mainly interest rate and liquidity risks associated with their
retained mortgage portfolios.
**Interest rate changes are among the most important factors leading to changes in the
market value of mortgage assets and bond liabilities** , and thus in the market value of the
portfolio's equity. Interest rate risk arises because unexpected changes in interest rates
may cause mortgage asset values to fall relative to liability values, thus leading to an
unexpected decline in the market value of equity. In an extreme case, the market value of
equity can become negative, leading to the possible bankruptcy and liquidation of the
financial firm
Caveat: my track record when I take the under has been very good - but recently I've been mostly wrong when I've taken the over (although I correctly took the over last month)!
Cinco's link at the top had this quote from Joe Weisenthal at Business Insider: "This week's initial claims number was very good". Ya, very good, right.
It is a profound question, and one worthy of economic study - how did ukraine become a morgue 1929-1942... yet they still export thousands of incredibly hot women?
Perhaps, like Colombia, they are a nexus, which gives their genetic content more than a little oomph.
are slavic women genuinely gorgeous, or am i just programmed as a genetic western european to want to reproduce with them?
I think it's the later. It's not that Slavic women aren't attractive; they are...it's just that women from so many other nationalities are also attractive. I gotta think about a young Puerto Rican woman that I see everyday. Absolutely gorgeous...Of course, despite my Western European heritage, I find myself attracted to ethnic women...no idea why...
It is a profound question, and one worthy of economic study - how did ukraine become a morgue 1929-1942... yet they still export thousands of incredibly hot women?
Perhaps, like Colombia, they are a nexus, which gives their genetic content more than a little oomph.
If I'm not mistaken, the women of the Ukraine are descendents of the women that the Greeks called Amazons...I'd say that qualifies as a bit more genetic oomph....
I don't know if it's true but the story I heard was that the CFO saw all the money they were losing on their hedge as rates went lower and lower in late 2002 and early 2003 and decided to pull the hedge and increase their profits...only to have rates immediately spike and blow up the firm. Caught everyone by surprise--I don't know if even the other officers were aware (certainly if they were they'd be well-advised not to confess)--and employees showed up for work that morning to find the doors padlocked.
A friend was buying a house at the time and had locked a loan with them. Oops.
It is hard to call 397K good for initial weekly claims. It is better than we've been seeing, but I'd sure like to see claims fall much further.
I'm sure we can be stuck at 9% unemployment even with less people getting the boot from work.
Stupid question for the masses. I had this thought of simulating a investment bank. Not the banks role in the economy, but the type of actors that get promoted to the top. Come up with a set of properties for the bankers, competence in terms of properly making bets, risk taking, honesty (think insider trading), cheating (misuse of customer accounts) lawfulness etc. Then the idea is run simulations where employees for fired, stay where they are, or promoted based on performance and how they fit with the local internal culture.
I want to thank everyone for yesterday's overwhelming subscription response.
As a show of gratitude, we offer 3 new theorems from the unabridged version of "A Nubians Guide to Trading":
Theorem A - Buy the Dip
Theorem B - Sell the Rip
Theorem C - Hold the Mayo
There is a footnote to Theorem C by VonDeMark involving pikka birds, but I could never follow it.
As always, proofs are offered only through subscription.
We also offer a "peek inside the kimono" of our select service, for the more discriminating. Unfortunately, this is not a subscription service. Unrestricted access is only available with the right implants and hive frequency.
The uptrend that started Oct4-5 is still intact and wrestling with overhead resistance. The downleg that started 10/28 was broken yesterday by the terminally euphoric emerging market. The same downtrend was broken this morning by the more sober junk bond market. Both markets remained in an uptrend with momentum and buying pressure tracking, but with some fading pressure in junk.
A good overnight gap up would vault us over resistance. A good gap down would send us to right shoulder support.
I know how sharp HCN'ers are, so before you ask, implants are not available in this quadrant.
Okay....tell the truth now....how many of you are going to invest in this stock?
I have been waiting for this opportunity since I first learned about the company. But now that it's gotten so much press, I'm afraid the chance is already gone.
(I'm not sure "invest" is quite the right verb for what I intended to do, though.)
Capping a day of extreme political turbulence in Athens, George Papandreou told his socialist colleagues that there was no need for a referendum after the conservative opposition promised to support the terms of a €130bn bail-out from the European Union, European Central Bank and International Monetary Fund.
“Failure to back the package would mean the beginning of our departure from the euro,” Mr Papandreou said. “But if we have consensus, then we don’t need a referendum.”
Cinco's link at the top had this quote from Joe Weisenthal at Business Insider: "This week's initial claims number was very good". Ya, very good, right.
the criterion for good, when viewed by the , the biz. conservatives, and the media is
"one lousy job added" makes it good.
forget about new entrants into the workforce, they are all bearded anarchists.
It is a profound question, and one worthy of economic study - how did ukraine become a morgue 1929-1942... yet they still export thousands of incredibly hot women?
the ukraine womens mothers were the ones picked by both the nazis and soviets for brigade-strength serial rape.
Capping a day of extreme political turbulence in Athens, George Papandreou told his socialist colleagues that there was no need for a referendum after the conservative opposition promised to support the terms of a €130bn bail-out from the European Union, European Central Bank and International Monetary Fund.
Resolving this Greek political crisis will not improve its economic condition. The time will come when the other states of Europe, and the IMF, will be forced to make hard decisions about bailing out Greece any further.
I have a very low opinion of the BLS's NFP
They have yet to fully trickle out the adjustments they need to catch up with the giant revision the BEA did, which I called out at the time with 2mn too many jobs thanks to a flaw in the B/D model that was adding one imputed small business created job for every layoff at a major firm
furthermore, if you don't care to trust my word for it, the timeliness and accuracy (informational value and content) are not the best. NFP gets HUGE revisions 3 months out. it never catches a turning point at the time
stick with EMRATIO, the denominator (civilian non-institutional population over 16; not hospitalized, incarcerated, military) is stable and a relevant adjustment
the numerator is superior, it is based on the household survey
you get emratio monthly, it's better data, it's a no-brainer
† I didn't say NFP was insignificant, if enough people pay attention to the same set of worthless information then it would be significant
The term characterized farmers having a red neck caused by sunburn from hours working in the fields. A citation from 1893 provides a definition as "poorer inhabitants of the rural districts...men who work in the field, as a matter of course, generally have their skin stained red and burnt by the sun, and especially is this true of the back of their necks"
I am reluctant to return attention to Europe, but I just had something of an epiphany, as Papandreou is back live in the Greek Parliament. Whatever the degree of the crisis, he and the other leaders face incredible daily pressure to speak in public. I think this is his third appearance today after several marathon cabinet meetings over the last few days and weeks, his meetings in Cannes, the negotiations with the opposition parties, not to mention meetings with the President of the Republic over the past several months. It is 10 PM here, and the various debates are still going on and are covered by virtually every channel. I imagine many other European leaders have also been facing similar timetables. I can only reflect negatively on our American public debate over serious issues in my lifetime. In the last ten years we had 9-11, the invasion of Afghanistan then Iraq, Katrina, and many disasters I cannot recall in detail. I am pretty certain leaders took them seriously, but it did not appear so given the brush clearing in Crawford and US Presidential holidays. I will admit to being old; I recall my parents' worry over the Suez Crisis John Kennedy facing down the steel price increases and the guns and butter speech. That takes me back to kindergarten.
Sorry for the off-topic and rant, but it does seem that many folks world-wide are in extend and pretend mode. It just takes different forms.
more than my first language, volker, my ancestors helped create it.
the bandana story is really not the origin - my previous understanding of it is - obviously, the nazi has neglected her beatings, and your grip on syntax has suffered. still, i'm magnanimous, and i'll overlook it.
I just had something of an epiphany, as Papandreou is back live in the Greek Parliament. Whatever the degree of the crisis, he and the other leaders face incredible daily pressure to speak in public. I think this is his third appearance today
The three months, three weeks, three days, three hours meme is not some kind of inside joke.
there's a reason why other countries do not even attempt to release something like the NFP so quickly
they can't collect and process the data that fast -- I mean it could be done today with some new legislation and using computers..., but that's not how they do it
the BLS just makes up for it with their estimates, which is why the resulting dataset is so wild. if you can't do a good job, don't even bother. stay within your competence. admitting you can't succeed at something isn't terrible. lose, learn, improve, try again. don't just deny the loss
if the timeliness is so important, then release the raw data as soon as it becomes available. let individuals fill in the blanks with their own estimates. the bea/bls should be for collecting and curating data, not for dispensing their gut judgement
We have been here before. As battle-hardened veterans of the panic of 2008 were quick to point out, early November 2011 has started to look frighteningly like mid-September 2008. It is not just that a policy error – George Papandreou's decision to pursue a referendum – has triggered financial market mayhem, although it has. Nor is it just that there has been a deluge of bad news. It is the inescapable sense that policymakers have lost control of the situation and now fear for the worst.
I am not sure what to make of your comment. I take all of this as brinksmanship. On Papandreou's part, I think he is trying to face down the ND folks, the disgruntled populace and the so-called Troika. If you think it is all Kabuki, I will not disagree, but my main point was that the actors need to get on the stage much more often than our American politicians and put on the make-up and adopt the pose.
Bad Request
The history of the Greek financial system is not encouraging to those investors that are hoping that this country avoids defaulting on its sovereign debt obligations. Some may take comfort in knowing that while previous defaults were dislocating to the market, the global financial system did not suffer any long term damage because of these events.
But the know that this time is different because they will lose money.
Democracy can only work if the assertive scum that naturally climb into positions of authority (worshiped by their true-believers) actually have a reason for not completely screwing the society they are leading.
It's why Greek leaders are worried about Greeks, but German French and Brussels leadership scum aren't.
I too will take the over, but not by a lot. I suspect this month's report will look a lot like last months. I also think the revision is likely to be upward. As for the UE rate that will depend if the bounce in the participation rate continues, I'll go along with the consensus of unchanged at 9.1%. Would not be shocked by either 9.0% if no rise in participation rate, or 9.2% with an increase in the particiapation rate. I'm expecting a one tick imporvement in the employment rate (employment to population ratio) which is probably the figure to watch, not the UE rate. Agree with CR, even with that sort of a "beat" it is still a crappy report. Need at least double that, and for it to be sustained.
If you think it is all Kabuki, I will not disagree, but my main point was that the actors need to get on the stage much more often than our American politicians and put on the make-up and adopt the pose.
Most American politicians don't know how to face a crowd in any effective way -- except the country-club or chamber-of-commerce or polite-well-financed-intellectual crowds. They present themselves to the people through a filter of well-massaged television messages and "managed" interviews and appearances.
Let the media guys earn their pay, they say. They've been saying it since Nixon.
We have men in the rural south to buy slavic brides quite often.
happens all over
the mayor of our fine Pac NW city arranged for a Russian bride from the sister city
as soon as she gained citizenship she left him in a wake the size of that frigging asteroid is bringing
BTW: are the wimmins dumb asses, or are the redneck goobers dumb asses?
Can't remember how long you have to be married to get half of the Social Security check. A smart woman might figure out how to do that while still back with her honey in the old country.
Let the media guys earn their pay, they say. They've been saying it since Nixon.
I was reading a biography of Lincoln recently and started to wonder: who was the last President to write his own speeches? I honestly don't know--does anyone?
We have men in the rural south to buy slavic brides quite often. Must be pretty simple to do since most are dumbass's.
It's done out here on the west coast; just isn't talked about. My wife's ex brought someone over from Moldova. And of course on several occasions an Indian co-worker has gone home for a few weeks to return with a wife he'd never met before; you can call it the culture, if you like.
So much doom and gloom going around I thought everyone needs a laugh: Remains Of Ancient Race Of Job Creators Found In Rust Belt | The Onion - America's Finest News Source
Next week Obama will seek to turn the spotlight on Asia as he and the heads of some 20 countries meet in Honolulu. Perhaps the plan is simple sleight of hand and distraction from a business news environment that as been decidedly Euro-centric of late.
Oh by the way, nothing happened at Occupy Honolulu today. Still debating about whether it makes sense to buy tents. Meantime, the window to get a permit to protest APEC has closed. Unhappy downward twinkle fingers.
I was reading a biography of Lincoln recently and started to wonder: who was the last President to write his own speeches? I honestly don't know--does anyone?
Presidents have had speechwriters from the beginning, but many have written a draft of at least some of their speeches. FDR supposedly wrote the "Day of Infamy" speech himself, but others were ghostwritten by his aides (Hopkins?) and supposedly Orson Welles himself.
I've read that Woodrow Wilson and Calvin Coolidge wrote most or all of their own speeches, but I can't tell you who definitively was last. The Internets disagree.
It is brilliant satire. Of course they left out the part about how the competing race of job creators discovered a magical technology that could legislate prosperity into existence through sheer fiat, and this insurmountable advantage eventually meant the extinction of the elder race, who was then faced with the choice of extinction or assimilation.
I suspect this month's report will look a lot like last months.
It would be nice too see the "wage payout" plotted against the "jobless rate".
If the new jobs aren't paying as well as the "old jobs" that's going to be more important going forward that just the numbers of jobs.
(Related to that. We're looking for a new DBA. But, word has "come down" that no hires in tier 0 & 1 cities are going to be approved until all the rest of the locations have been exhausted. Tier 0 & 1 are the expensive places basically and salary is adjusted accordingly).
If the weekly initial claims report isn't adjusted for population growth, I think it's possible that we've hit the bottom of the trough, and will grind along at current levels for quite a while. Larger population + larger job base = absolute number of initial claims each week might be the same percentage level of initial claims as in previous troughs in layoffs.
Of course they left out the part about how the competing race of job creators discovered a magical technology that could legislate prosperity into existence through sheer fiat, and this insurmountable advantage eventually meant the extinction of the elder race, who was then faced with the choice of extinction or assimilation.
397,000 is great news, that's only 20,644,000 initial claims for unemployment per year, why we'll get it down under 20 million and then everything will be aces.
The competing race of job creators will be unknown to future archeologists--they won't have left behind any physical remains.
I'm assuming that's how previous civilizations always seem to reach a high level of cultural development, leave behind great monuments, and then inexplicably vanish without a trace.
Any intellectual humor these days is going to be in the ultra-violet, if it's honest at all. For cheerier fare, sticky to bodily-function jokes.
The fact that Bachmann used the phrase "banana republic" in reference to the US (regardless of how twisted her view of who is getting protected by the government) shows that some pessimism is creeping into the brains of the perpetually optimistic.
and a bit of reflection on the origin of the 'marathon' reference would be in order.
Marathon is the site of a battle in which the Hellenes repulsed the Persians. The runner announcing the victory was Pheidippides. who arrived in Athens to announce the victory and collapsed. This is from Wikipedia: Pheidippides - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
"The traditional story relates that Pheidippides (530 BC–490 BC), an Athenian herald, was sent to Sparta to request help when the Persians landed at Marathon, Greece. He ran 240 km (150 mi) in two days. He then ran the 40 km (25 mi) from the battlefield near Marathon to Athens to announce the Greek victory over Persia in the Battle of Marathon (490 BC) with the word "Νενικήκαμεν" (Nenikékamen, "We have won") and collapsed and died on the spot from exhaustion."
I would urge folks not to trust any film version of these events or of the narrative of the fall of Troy. Hollywood renditions of Greek myth and history as are CDOs to real worth.
Nice if you can get budget approval. Long story short... I need to re-org a department and have already been told if I cut the chaff, then it'll be looked as a cost saving and no new heads will be approved. Freaking idiocy...
I wouldn't even get a bonus for the cost savings
~splat
FD: I made a mistake with that word in a rough draft about 16 years ago... I referenced discreet transistors, and the CTO asked me if they were very closed lip....
FD: I made a mistake with that word in a rough draft about 16 years ago... I referenced discreet transistors, and the CTO asked me if they were very closed lip....
You were either right or you were wrong. No two ways about it.
Most American politicians don't know how to face a crowd in any effective way -- except the country-club or chamber-of-commerce or polite-well-financed-intellectual crowds. They present themselves to the people through a filter of well-massaged television messages and "managed" interviews and appearances.
Let the media guys earn their pay, they say. They've been saying it since Nixon.
Sorry that I am late in replying. I have not been all that surprised over the last few years of the drop off in the sound-bite time. I recall taking the part of the Kennedy ticket in 1960 when I was in 6th grade for a formal debate with rebuttals on both sides; it ran to an hour, and I do not know how parents might have suffered through our debates on Quemoy and Matsou. I am not bragging here, but times change. Our attention spans have shrunk. I recall thinking this 40 yrs ago as my daughter was in the thrall of Sesame Street. I loved the show and thought it was wonderful, but I also imagined that no teacher in primary school could match the high-energy and visual stimulation. I do not know who wrote it (Collingwood perhaps in his autobiography?) that British education demonstrated that one could learn while being bored.
Yes, a Greek name after his victory that lost the war.I think the name might come from Epirus, in current NW Greece, from where the Greeks repulsed the Italians in 1940-41. Pyrrus was much earlier, but the result was much the same after the Germans entered the fray.
However, when there's a need to pay attention people can. What doomed the US wasn't attention span; it was 50+ years of not needing to pay attention because government could and did provide every socialist fantasy to every constituent using debt.
We've had 3 or 4 generations of people that thought there really were no limits on what debt could provide. When you really don't need government to decide EITHER this kick-ass cool war or THAT smothering-mommy program - because you can have both - then you really don't need government at all. Until you suddenly do, but then it's too late. Like now.
(Note to true-believer knee-jerk reaction people. I'm talking about all forms of debt, public and private).
It looks like it is all quiet on the Eastern Front here in Greece and the Western Front. I hope they have their northern flank covered tonight. I will be back tomorrow if there is anything new. Thanks to folks for the questions and encouragement and apologies to CR for turning so many threads into Eurozone issues. Be well, all.
Say, did you ask Hub about the asteroid, which is now in mainstream news, passing a projected .85 LD (lunar distance) from Earth Nov 8/9, 2011?
I also gather that one of the largest ever solar flares should be happening at the same tiome, blasting incredible forces straight at Earth and in the path of the asteroid, called YU55.
Solar flares can mess up communications and satellites, and maybe a disastrous amount of electronic stuff, but the particles thereof could hardly move anything the size of a baseball.
Solar flares can mess up communications and satellites, and maybe a disastrous amount of electronic stuff, but the particles thereof could hardly move anything the size of a baseball.
They can take out the electrical grid, which is already under stress from recent events...
I understand there actually is an answer to whether Zebra is white with black stripes or vice versa, but I don't remember what it is and I don't understand why anybody should care.
Yancy posted....Juvenal Delinquent wrote:
A little harsh there bearly, seeing as she's been married since before the turn of the century, but how would you know that, other than googling it, like I just did.
This doesn't prove bearly wrong.
Sure, but what if the asteroid is zooming in and passes through the wake of the moon, and bumps off a wave, changes directions and crashes into the earth?
I understand there actually is an answer to whether Zebra is white with black stripes or vice versa, but I don't remember what it is and I don't understand why anybody should care.
Because Zebras with stripes that deviate slightly more to the left are racially inferior to Zebras with right leaning stripes.
~splat
Sure, but what if the asteroid is zooming in and passes through the wake of the moon, and bumps off a wave, changes directions and crashes into the earth?
I, for one, would benefit from an opinion from the hub.
These 2 guys--the last 2 guys of their planet--were locked in mortal combat. At the end asks why they were fighting.
It's obvous, they say, the other guy is colored wrongly. But, you are both half black and half white!! Yes, but he is black on the right, whereas I am black on the left. Nice little sermon.
It's probably headed straight for Greece, in fact.
it would seem they project a potential for water impact thus the test for the World Tsunami Alert System Nov 8, and the concurrent nationwide test of the emergency broadcast system
they're gonna interrupt all radio and television, cable, wireless, PC, and anything connected to the world wide web at 3 PM that afternoon. You can look it up.
Here in the swamp we're gonna be as off the grid as possible with all computers unplugged, turned off, and hopefully escaping notice.
If the weekly initial claims report isn't adjusted for population growth, I think it's possible that we've hit the bottom of the trough, and will grind along at current levels for quite a while.
True, it is not adjusted for pop growth, however the states have been continuiously tightening the standards for who is elegible to get UE benefits. The number of eleigble workers is actually smaller than it was a few years ago. It is interesting to plot the number of continuing claims (regular state based) versus the insured unemployment rate. While on a week to week basis or even year to year, the two track eachother prettywell, but over time there is a huge divergence. If you go to the FRED database, the items are CCSA and IURSA
Just getting ready to leave Vegas - was here all week for the SEMA 'Auto' Show [specialty/sport equipment mfg assn]. Fun show. Absolutely packed. An exhibitor told me the attendance was 30% above last year and last year was better than the year before. Lotsa car bling. Awesome sports cars and hot rods on display too.
I had come in early and also went to ATRA & APRA [engine and tranny rebuilders ass'ns] and also AAPEX [aftermarket parts & equipment]. The aftermarket show is really two shows -- one is for the bigger 'tier one' part mfgrs and the other in the basement below the first is for the parts suppliers. Most of them from offshore. We refer to the basement as 'Chinatown'. The Chinese seem to be here in even more numbers than last year. Others [like the Indians and other South Asians] seemed way off. You really have to see Chinatown to believe it.
Anyway I point this out because the difference between the two is striking. The 'low brow' products area as represented by Chinatown seemed desperate and poorly attended - meanwhile those buyers looking for the hottest 'matte' detailing paint colors or interior bling were elbowing each other to get access.
I suspect the only banana republic that Bachman is familiar with it the one at the Mall. She is however right (broken clock) about our turning into one, and mostly because of the sort of policies she favors. If you want to live in a banana republic, vote for a banana republican
There was an asteroid the size of Nantucket
Some were concerned, others said i'll duck it
We stayed up late one night hoping for a fright
Awoke next dawn to find out everything was alright
If you want to live in a banana republic, vote for a banana republican
Or a banana democrat feeding loot to Big-MIC, Big-Road, Big-Water, Big-Airport, Big-Ed, Big-FIRE, Big-House, Big-Energy, or Big-PoliceState for our children's future (and their perpetual re-election)?
What about Vegas in general. Any sign of Austerity?
Busy this week. Up by the nicer joints - packed. I crashed a high end investment seminar at the Bellagio and all I can say is they live better than I do.
Down where I was staying [nyny] it wasn't too busy at all - which is why I stay here - I can work and get stuff done.
BAC dilution announcement taking a toll:
Bank of America Corporation Com (NYSE: BAC )
After Hours: 6.74 -0.17 (-2.46%) 5:54PM EDT
Not that they need capital or anything. It just seemed like a good time to dilute.
They didn't need Warren's money either.
And they didn't need to sell any assets in that Chinese bank.
STOP LOOKING AT THEIR BOOKS!
Chart comparing accuracy of Silver price predictions over 7,5 months (included both May and September peaks and drops) and extension of prediction for 1 month:
"If I'm not mistaken, the women of the Ukraine are descendents of the women that the Greeks called Amazons...I'd say that qualifies as a bit more genetic oomph.... "
The archeologists aren't exactly sure but they suspect the Scythians, out of the steppes of the 'stans. PBS did a program on the graves that were found.
No biking for me this weekend. Pulled a muscle badly in my chest on the last day in Maui. That's what I get for trying to keep up with my wife while swimming.
Pulled a muscle badly in my chest on the last day in Maui.
you need to get back to work so you can relax "
Funny you say that. We had "friends" stay with us for part of our vacation. Best part of the vacation turned out to be before they arrived and after they left.
"Prime Minister George Papandreou struggled to hold on to power after Greece’s largest opposition party rebuffed his overtures to form a national government, raising the prospect of elections that could delay aid needed to prevent default."
"Prime Minister George Papandreou struggled to hold on to power after Greece’s largest opposition party rebuffed his overtures to form a national government, raising the prospect of elections that could delay aid needed to prevent default."
Huh, this morning it looked like the various applied-socialists parties there were coming together for one last fix of free loot for the politically connected. Wonder what happened?
"Huh, this morning it looked like the various applied-socialists parties there were coming together for one last fix of free loot for the politically connected. Wonder what happened? "
Papendreou losing power would give them the fix of free loot. Papendreou out --> no referendum --> next tranche of funds
I'm telling you, the asteroid is heading straight for Greece.
then you know more than JPL. And they don't know much, but they seem to think that if they were being forced to predict, then they would predict a water landing, near the western end of the Aleutians
"Downing Street sources said "strong political pressure to sort itself out" had been put on Greece, while Barack Obama said it was time to "flesh out" ..."
"On Saturday, Mr. Gensler reached out to H. Rodgin Cohen, a partner at Sullivan & Cromwell who has long served as Wall Street’s go-to lawyer in a crisis. During the tumultuous days of 2008, Mr. Cohen advised a number of embattled Wall Street executives, including Richard S. Fuld Jr. of Lehman Brothers. He now found himself counseling Mr. Corzine.
“We need more documents,” Mr. Gensler told the lawyer, according to people briefed on the conversation. The call set off a scramble at MF Global as employees tried to locate the documents regulators were demanding."
Mr. Gensler first spotted a potential shortfall late last week, calling MF Global’s lawyer to alert the firm. But it was not until around 2 a.m. Monday that the firm fully recognized the magnitude of the missing money. The disclosure sent bidders fleeing and the firm had no choice but to file for bankruptcy.
My fucking head just exploded. Gensler's job is to regulate the industry and punish misbehavior NOT assist in covering it up.
"Flensing is the removing of the outer integument (blubber) of whales. English whalemen called it "flenching", while American whalemen called it "cutting-in".
The Most Important Economic Datapoint In The World Is Coming Out Tomorrow
Looks like the consensus number is becoming like quarterly earnings. The number to beat.
^-1
Cinco-X wrote:
Pigged from the last thread regarding your query
So how mush are they paying for Papandreou to leave?
Anecdotal: a friend, who is and would be in the know, told me last night that in Cannes Papandreou was asked to pay up front for the stay.
Rob Dawg wrote:
Beating a terrible number is cause for celebration, right?.....right?....uh oh...
Haralambos wrote:
My reply on the
Vic wrote:
Ok, I found a very interesting academic paper written in 2003 about interest rate risk for Fannie and Freddie. Well worth the read.
This probably answers the question posed about interest rate risk hedging.
http://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=1&ved=0CBoQFjAA&url=http%3A%2F%2Fciteseerx.ist.psu.edu%2Fviewdoc%2Fdownload%3Fdoi%3D10.1.1.72.2272%26rep%3Drep1%26type%3Dpdf&ei=OeuyTuu1K4Hh0QH38onbBA&usg=AFQjCNETcAfGjHkB-3ZLVVGzYxrPXeSaiA
Cinco-X wrote:
Why u hatz expectation 'Merika?
CR wrote:
Caveat: my track record when I take the under has been very good - but recently I've been mostly wrong when I've taken the over (although I correctly took the over last month)!
that just about covers it
Are slavic women genuinely gorgeous, or am i programmed as a genetic western european to want to reproduce with them?
Call me off-topic, but somewhere in the answer are important clues as to household formation.
:vodka:
Yeah, but even if this is higher than consensus, it will still be a weak report.
greenchutes wrote:
you're Off Topic
household information should be restricted to numbers only
Yes. I think I took the under for 2 years straight - and was right every time. But taking the over hasn't been so easy ...
take the points on pats/nyg, cr...
and buy me a dozen drinks with a tenth of the winnings at south coast mall
We have men in the rural south to buy slavic brides quite often. Must be pretty simple to do since most are dumbass's.
Cinco's link at the top had this quote from Joe Weisenthal at Business Insider: "This week's initial claims number was very good". Ya, very good, right.
Cinco-X wrote:
Thanks. I imagine they want another generation or two of the best and brightest the country can provide, since SF or gold are not enough of a hedge.
It is a profound question, and one worthy of economic study - how did ukraine become a morgue 1929-1942... yet they still export thousands of incredibly hot women?
Perhaps, like Colombia, they are a nexus, which gives their genetic content more than a little oomph.
greenchutes wrote:
I think it's the later. It's not that Slavic women aren't attractive; they are...it's just that women from so many other nationalities are also attractive. I gotta think about a young Puerto Rican woman that I see everyday. Absolutely gorgeous...Of course, despite my Western European heritage, I find myself attracted to ethnic women...no idea why...
It is hard to call 397K good for initial weekly claims. It is better than we've been seeing, but I'd sure like to see claims fall much further.
it tickled me the width and depth of your caveat
perhaps you'd like to see 2022, when the boomer demographic pressure is at its maximum?
and the ZIRP/entitlement
/
stasis stillllllllllll rules? Or would you?
YouTube - A Boy And His Dog (1975) trailer
greenchutes wrote:
If I'm not mistaken, the women of the Ukraine are descendents of the women that the Greeks called Amazons...I'd say that qualifies as a bit more genetic oomph....
MaryAnn wrote:
happens all over
the mayor of our fine Pac NW city arranged for a Russian bride from the sister city
as soon as she gained citizenship she left him in a wake the size of that frigging asteroid is bringing
BTW: are the wimmins dumb asses, or are the redneck goobers dumb asses?
if you're from urkaine stock, you aren't a dumbass - you're a survivor, and godspeed to you
thanks
stock up, they truly don't know what is about to happen
may be nothing to minimal, and it may also go horribly wrong
Covered Employment: Those eligible to file initial claims
10/06/2001 - 128,507,448
10/08/2011 - 126,188,733
Report r539cy, Employment & Training Administration (ETA) - U.S. Department of Labor
Vic wrote:
Failed mortgage lender faces suits - Sacramento Business Journal
I don't know if it's true but the story I heard was that the CFO saw all the money they were losing on their hedge as rates went lower and lower in late 2002 and early 2003 and decided to pull the hedge and increase their profits...only to have rates immediately spike and blow up the firm. Caught everyone by surprise--I don't know if even the other officers were aware (certainly if they were they'd be well-advised not to confess)--and employees showed up for work that morning to find the doors padlocked.
A friend was buying a house at the time and had locked a loan with them. Oops.
greenchutes wrote:
Won't most of us be retired at that point? That should lead to full employment, right? Al least in the healthcare field...
Groupon, Beware: Of 25 Hot IPOs, 20 Tanked Later - BusinessWeek
CalculatedRisk wrote:
I'm sure we can be stuck at 9% unemployment even with less people getting the boot from work.
Stupid question for the masses. I had this thought of simulating a investment bank. Not the banks role in the economy, but the type of actors that get promoted to the top. Come up with a set of properties for the bankers, competence in terms of properly making bets, risk taking, honesty (think insider trading), cheating (misuse of customer accounts) lawfulness etc. Then the idea is run simulations where employees for fired, stay where they are, or promoted based on performance and how they fit with the local internal culture.
the neck can't get red without actual sun, so the pacific nw is automatically excluded from said definition
km4 wrote:
Okay....tell the truth now....how many of you are going to invest in this stock?
Yeah, it'll probably be a bad report. So that we can blame the sell-off on jobs jobs jobs.
That is, instead of the insolvent global banking system.
they just want what
Precious Bodily Fluidsliquidity they can squeeze or suck out of usthen they'll try to discard the husks
discarding 100 million husks has qualitative problems all of its own
I want to thank everyone for yesterday's overwhelming subscription response.
As a show of gratitude, we offer 3 new theorems from the unabridged version of "A Nubians Guide to Trading":
Theorem A - Buy the Dip
Theorem B - Sell the Rip
Theorem C - Hold the Mayo
There is a footnote to Theorem C by VonDeMark involving pikka birds, but I could never follow it.
As always, proofs are offered only through subscription.
We also offer a "peek inside the kimono" of our select service, for the more discriminating. Unfortunately, this is not a subscription service. Unrestricted access is only available with the right implants and hive frequency.
The uptrend that started Oct4-5 is still intact and wrestling with overhead resistance. The downleg that started 10/28 was broken yesterday by the terminally euphoric emerging market. The same downtrend was broken this morning by the more sober junk bond market. Both markets remained in an uptrend with momentum and buying pressure tracking, but with some fading pressure in junk.
A good overnight gap up would vault us over resistance. A good gap down would send us to right shoulder support.
I know how sharp HCN'ers are, so before you ask, implants are not available in this quadrant.
greenchutes wrote:
Pretty sure he was referring to the men in the rural South, not the Ukrainians.
behind_the_curve wrote:
Are you sure this isn't a "A noOB-ians Guide to Trading"?
Cinco-X wrote:
I have been waiting for this opportunity since I first learned about the company. But now that it's gotten so much press, I'm afraid the chance is already gone.
(I'm not sure "invest" is quite the right verb for what I intended to do, though.)
Yalt wrote:
He also asked about the "wimmens", which would have been Ukrainians...
two to tango, yalt - and both places are agricultural regions utterly crushed by modernity, lest we'all forget...
YouTube - Benny Moré - En el tiempo de la colonia
greenchutes wrote:
I guess you just don't know the origin of the term.
you can look it up
Unemployment is GOOD. Means more free money. Get with the program.
My s.o.'s Ukrainian, greenchutes. I'm bowing out of this conversation in case she's reading it.
are you a redneck goober?
Greek PM scraps referendum plan - FT.com
dr munch wrote:
the criterion for good, when viewed by the
, the biz. conservatives, and the media is
"one lousy job added" makes it good.
forget about new entrants into the workforce, they are all bearded anarchists.
pick apples all day up there, you still won't get a red neck.
know it? i'm ethnic irish. just took one day to trash a nice part of my flesh to the grave.
Yalt wrote:
How much did you pay, and what was there a return policy?
greenchutes wrote:
the ukraine womens mothers were the ones picked by both the nazis and soviets for brigade-strength serial rape.
CalculatedRisk wrote:
Is he confusing consensus among the political parties for consensus among the people?
Probably not--he just knows that in a Grand Coalition the people are irrelevant.
AMD to cut 10% of workforce.
CalculatedRisk wrote:
Democracy R.I.P.
and this is the dark origin of the name of everyone's favorite early 80s band
YouTube - Joy Division - She's Lost Control
greenchutes wrote:
Oh. Sorry, Paddy, I didn't realize you had no idea how to look it up.
Where did the name 'redneck' come from
Cinco-X wrote:
why would anyone invest in something that sounds like a group orgy?
Resolving this Greek political crisis will not improve its economic condition. The time will come when the other states of Europe, and the IMF, will be forced to make hard decisions about bailing out Greece any further.
Stock...
Tile the garage...
Stock...
Tile the garage...
I'm guessing the tile will generate a better roi...
Chris
greenchutes wrote:
every one's a critic
Rob Dawg wrote:
Born 1945, died 1946.
I always assumed it was in reference to paleskin folk doing outdoor agricultural labor in sunny climes.
Seems a bit more organic than your definition.
I have a very low opinion of the BLS's NFP
They have yet to fully trickle out the adjustments they need to catch up with the giant revision the BEA did, which I called out at the time with 2mn too many jobs thanks to a flaw in the B/D model that was adding one imputed small business created job for every layoff at a major firm
furthermore, if you don't care to trust my word for it, the timeliness and accuracy (informational value and content) are not the best. NFP gets HUGE revisions 3 months out. it never catches a turning point at the time
stick with EMRATIO, the denominator (civilian non-institutional population over 16; not hospitalized, incarcerated, military) is stable and a relevant adjustment
the numerator is superior, it is based on the household survey
you get emratio monthly, it's better data, it's a no-brainer
† I didn't say NFP was insignificant, if enough people pay attention to the same set of worthless information then it would be significant
no s
... truman was really worse than W in terms of the opportunity he had.
Economic data is just a side show.
Credit, credit, credit....
My way of predicting NFP fwiw:
"GDD9000, you around? what do you think of the upcoming NFP?"
is English your first language?
I provide the straight up historical proof and you denigrate it as my definition? Relax, it's all good. You don't have to bat a thousand.
Redneck - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Apparently there's a dispute over whether the 17th century Presbyterian usage contributed to the use of the term here.
I am reluctant to return attention to Europe, but I just had something of an epiphany, as Papandreou is back live in the Greek Parliament. Whatever the degree of the crisis, he and the other leaders face incredible daily pressure to speak in public. I think this is his third appearance today after several marathon cabinet meetings over the last few days and weeks, his meetings in Cannes, the negotiations with the opposition parties, not to mention meetings with the President of the Republic over the past several months. It is 10 PM here, and the various debates are still going on and are covered by virtually every channel. I imagine many other European leaders have also been facing similar timetables. I can only reflect negatively on our American public debate over serious issues in my lifetime. In the last ten years we had 9-11, the invasion of Afghanistan then Iraq, Katrina, and many disasters I cannot recall in detail. I am pretty certain leaders took them seriously, but it did not appear so given the brush clearing in Crawford and US Presidential holidays. I will admit to being old; I recall my parents' worry over the Suez Crisis John Kennedy facing down the steel price increases and the guns and butter speech. That takes me back to kindergarten.
Sorry for the off-topic and rant, but it does seem that many folks world-wide are in extend and pretend mode. It just takes different forms.
Cash, Rules, Everything, Around, Me
C.R.E.A.M.
Get the money
Dollar, dollar bill y'all
EHP: I have the highest regard for your work. It strips out all the noise and exposes their scheme.
Mo betta...
YouTube - judas priest-metal gods
Chris
more than my first language, volker, my ancestors helped create it.
the bandana story is really not the origin - my previous understanding of it is - obviously, the nazi has neglected her beatings, and your grip on syntax has suffered. still, i'm magnanimous, and i'll overlook it.
Haralambos wrote:
The three months, three weeks, three days, three hours meme is not some kind of inside joke.
So much doom and gloom going around I thought everyone needs a laugh: Remains Of Ancient Race Of Job Creators Found In Rust Belt | The Onion - America's Finest News Source
Former Idealist wrote:
That's good, for them, not for the 99%.
Cobradriver wrote:
YouTube - Judas Priest - Hell Bent For Leather
Nice use of pedal tones....
Haralambos wrote:
Indeed, and a bit of reflection on the origin of the 'marathon' reference would be in order.
Please keep posting, hara, us mere
appreciate it.
there's a reason why other countries do not even attempt to release something like the NFP so quickly
they can't collect and process the data that fast -- I mean it could be done today with some new legislation and using computers..., but that's not how they do it
the BLS just makes up for it with their estimates, which is why the resulting dataset is so wild. if you can't do a good job, don't even bother. stay within your competence. admitting you can't succeed at something isn't terrible. lose, learn, improve, try again. don't just deny the loss
if the timeliness is so important, then release the raw data as soon as it becomes available. let individuals fill in the blanks with their own estimates. the bea/bls should be for collecting and curating data, not for dispensing their gut judgement
greenchutes wrote:
interestingly enough, I have it otherwise, and I'm a Mick too
so it's all good
thankfully, that's only a quarter of the genetics, though the sad origin of the complexion and propensity to addiction
greenchutes wrote:
I thought you indicated you were of Slavic decent...no?
Rob Dawg wrote:
Democracy is a policy error.
Greek crisis: Government on the brink as PM holds crucial talks | Business | guardian.co.uk
EvilHenryPaulson wrote:
YouTube - blinkin "I can see" robin hood men in tights
greenchutes wrote:
that's all mythology
but I am Irish
Thanks, RD,
I am not sure what to make of your comment. I take all of this as brinksmanship. On Papandreou's part, I think he is trying to face down the ND folks, the disgruntled populace and the so-called Troika. If you think it is all Kabuki, I will not disagree, but my main point was that the actors need to get on the stage much more often than our American politicians and put on the make-up and adopt the pose.
volker the viking wrote:
no, just all greco-roman root words - volker can ignore
Comrade Gibbon wrote:
You'd better better off just reading this book: Amazon.com: Sex and War: How Biology Explains Warfare and Terrorism and Offers a Path to a Safer World (9781933771571): Malcolm Potts, Thomas Hayden: Books
Then you won't need to bother with the simulation. The biggest dick win.
Bad Request
The history of the Greek financial system is not encouraging to those investors that are hoping that this country avoids defaulting on its sovereign debt obligations. Some may take comfort in knowing that while previous defaults were dislocating to the market, the global financial system did not suffer any long term damage because of these events.
But the
know that this time is different because they will lose money.
Haralambos wrote:
hara, I love your posts because they put these things in a generational context.
the kids don't want poses - they want jobs that create value.
dilbert dogbert wrote:
you're raised two chips:
Nation Finally Breaks Down And Begs Its Smart People To Just Fix Everything | The Onion - America's Finest News Source
Yalt wrote:
Democracy can only work if the assertive scum that naturally climb into positions of authority (worshiped by their true-believers) actually have a reason for not completely screwing the society they are leading.
It's why Greek leaders are worried about Greeks, but German French and Brussels leadership scum aren't.
I too will take the over, but not by a lot. I suspect this month's report will look a lot like last months. I also think the revision is likely to be upward. As for the UE rate that will depend if the bounce in the participation rate continues, I'll go along with the consensus of unchanged at 9.1%. Would not be shocked by either 9.0% if no rise in participation rate, or 9.2% with an increase in the particiapation rate. I'm expecting a one tick imporvement in the employment rate (employment to population ratio) which is probably the figure to watch, not the UE rate. Agree with CR, even with that sort of a "beat" it is still a crappy report. Need at least double that, and for it to be sustained.
greenchutes, " propensity to addiction "
Scandinavians and Slavs have the same problem.
our salvation, as a nation, and global populace
Haralambos wrote:
I think the "three months, three weeks..." meme is about the acceleration of crises. Shorter intervals as problems escalate.
Haralambos wrote:
Most American politicians don't know how to face a crowd in any effective way -- except the country-club or chamber-of-commerce or polite-well-financed-intellectual crowds. They present themselves to the people through a filter of well-massaged television messages and "managed" interviews and appearances.
Let the media guys earn their pay, they say. They've been saying it since Nixon.
volker the viking wrote:
Can't remember how long you have to be married to get half of the Social Security check. A smart woman might figure out how to do that while still back with her honey in the old country.
Bob Dobbs wrote:
I was reading a biography of Lincoln recently and started to wonder: who was the last President to write his own speeches? I honestly don't know--does anyone?
Irony is also a policy error.
Hey Feckless
You got rid of your contact info
Lonnie Athens....sociologist and writer
MaryAnn wrote:
It's done out here on the west coast; just isn't talked about. My wife's ex brought someone over from Moldova. And of course on several occasions an Indian co-worker has gone home for a few weeks to return with a wife he'd never met before; you can call it the culture, if you like.
dilbert dogbert wrote:
Did you read it? Dark, dark humor...
Next week Obama will seek to turn the spotlight on Asia as he and the heads of some 20 countries meet in Honolulu. Perhaps the plan is simple sleight of hand and distraction from a business news environment that as been decidedly Euro-centric of late.
Oh by the way, nothing happened at Occupy Honolulu today. Still debating about whether it makes sense to buy tents. Meantime, the window to get a permit to protest APEC has closed. Unhappy downward twinkle fingers.
JimPortlandOR wrote:
Darn! I am on a low carb diet and can't eat chips. The Onion the only news source you need. Crying doesn't help but a laugh everyonceinawhile helps.
Yalt wrote:
Presidents have had speechwriters from the beginning, but many have written a draft of at least some of their speeches. FDR supposedly wrote the "Day of Infamy" speech himself, but others were ghostwritten by his aides (Hopkins?) and supposedly Orson Welles himself.
I've read that Woodrow Wilson and Calvin Coolidge wrote most or all of their own speeches, but I can't tell you who definitively was last. The Internets disagree.
energyecon wrote:
It is brilliant satire. Of course they left out the part about how the competing race of job creators discovered a magical technology that could legislate prosperity into existence through sheer fiat, and this insurmountable advantage eventually meant the extinction of the elder race, who was then faced with the choice of extinction or assimilation.
Dirk van Dijk wrote:
It would be nice too see the "wage payout" plotted against the "jobless rate".
If the new jobs aren't paying as well as the "old jobs" that's going to be more important going forward that just the numbers of jobs.
(Related to that. We're looking for a new DBA. But, word has "come down" that no hires in tier 0 & 1 cities are going to be approved until all the rest of the locations have been exhausted. Tier 0 & 1 are the expensive places basically and salary is adjusted accordingly).
If the weekly initial claims report isn't adjusted for population growth, I think it's possible that we've hit the bottom of the trough, and will grind along at current levels for quite a while. Larger population + larger job base = absolute number of initial claims each week might be the same percentage level of initial claims as in previous troughs in layoffs.
The competing race of job creators will be unknown to future archeologists--they won't have left behind any physical remains.
ResistanceIsFeudal wrote:
Hasn't that been used as proof of evolution?
397,000 is great news, that's only 20,644,000 initial claims for unemployment per year, why we'll get it down under 20 million and then everything will be aces.
convexity wrote:
it's a slippery slope to optimism that seems downright stupid in retrospect
Future archeoogists will never see our monument to stupidity, the grandiose pyramid schemes we concocted.
Yalt wrote:
I'm assuming that's how previous civilizations always seem to reach a high level of cultural development, leave behind great monuments, and then inexplicably vanish without a trace.
greenchutes wrote:
I still sticking by my theory that the Fed's historical rate of inflation exactly matches the "rate" of human optimism.
energyecon wrote:
Any intellectual humor these days is going to be in the ultra-violet, if it's honest at all. For cheerier fare, sticky to bodily-function jokes.
When the going gets weird, the humor does too.
NOTaREALmerican wrote:
......IF?.......
Bob Dobbs wrote:
The fact that Bachmann used the phrase "banana republic" in reference to the US (regardless of how twisted her view of who is getting protected by the government) shows that some pessimism is creeping into the brains of the perpetually optimistic.
the scheme is to reduce the American wage enough to where the world labor rate rises and somewhere in the middle the recovery gains traction
...when Bachmann said 'banana republic'
I had visions of toucans flying overhead and a flagging economy waving...
greenchutes wrote:
Marathon is the site of a battle in which the Hellenes repulsed the Persians. The runner announcing the victory was Pheidippides. who arrived in Athens to announce the victory and collapsed. This is from Wikipedia: Pheidippides - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
"The traditional story relates that Pheidippides (530 BC–490 BC), an Athenian herald, was sent to Sparta to request help when the Persians landed at Marathon, Greece. He ran 240 km (150 mi) in two days. He then ran the 40 km (25 mi) from the battlefield near Marathon to Athens to announce the Greek victory over Persia in the Battle of Marathon (490 BC) with the word "Νενικήκαμεν" (Nenikékamen, "We have won") and collapsed and died on the spot from exhaustion."
I would urge folks not to trust any film version of these events or of the narrative of the fall of Troy. Hollywood renditions of Greek myth and history as are CDOs to real worth.
volker the viking wrote:
absolutely. there is a pseudo-scientific side to economics as well as a mythological one.
Juvenal Delinquent wrote:
we know that a pirate says ARRRRRRRRRRR, but it seems to let 'D' off the hook.
ResistanceIsFeudal wrote:
Doesn't a Toucan make a sound more like awwwwk!
Haralambos, " Hollywood renditions of Greek myth and history as are CDOs to real worth. "
Bob Dobbs wrote:
You mean Doppler approaching?
!
NOTaREALmerican wrote:
Nice if you can get budget approval. Long story short... I need to re-org a department and have already been told if I cut the chaff, then it'll be looked as a cost saving and no new heads will be approved. Freaking idiocy...
I wouldn't even get a bonus for the cost savings
~splat
Rob Dawg wrote:
Careful not to stray into particle territory...
Cinco-X wrote:
"Because Everybody needs Toucan Stubs"
- H.Cain, 2011
~splat
Haralambos wrote:
Isn't pyrrhic also a Greek word?
Cinco-X wrote:
if you grab it in the right spot
Cinco-X wrote:
Careful, be discrete.
splat wrote:
I'm gonna leave a dime for you to eat at White Castle...
Yes We Toucan?
Cinco-X wrote:
Thank you Mr. Rockefeller.
Rob Dawg wrote:
FD: I made a mistake with that word in a rough draft about 16 years ago... I referenced discreet transistors, and the CTO asked me if they were very closed lip....
volker the viking wrote:
At least they were silber dimes.
volker the viking wrote:
Thank Candidate Cain
Cinco-X wrote:
You were either right or you were wrong. No two ways about it.
this shit just writes itself!
Where does this fit in the numbers?
AMD to ax 1,400 workers in cost-cutting move - MarketWatch
volker the viking wrote:
Was there ever any doubt? Cain is able.
Black Star Ranch wrote:
Well, it would be nice to see it. We suspect, but everybody on here is a pessimist. So you can't trust us, we're all abnormal.
Bob Dobbs wrote:
Sorry that I am late in replying. I have not been all that surprised over the last few years of the drop off in the sound-bite time. I recall taking the part of the Kennedy ticket in 1960 when I was in 6th grade for a formal debate with rebuttals on both sides; it ran to an hour, and I do not know how parents might have suffered through our debates on Quemoy and Matsou. I am not bragging here, but times change. Our attention spans have shrunk. I recall thinking this 40 yrs ago as my daughter was in the thrall of Sesame Street. I loved the show and thought it was wonderful, but I also imagined that no teacher in primary school could match the high-energy and visual stimulation. I do not know who wrote it (Collingwood perhaps in his autobiography?) that British education demonstrated that one could learn while being bored.
Rob Dawg wrote:
Rethink the Schrodinger's Cat paradox...
NOTaREALmerican wrote:
speak for yourself
Yalt wrote:
Or jobs?
volker the viking wrote:
"All you can do is give that wookchuck a Tuna melt.. "
~splat
Blackhalo wrote:
In the long run, we're all dead...
Blackhalo wrote:
The can probably retrain to get a job in the knowledge economy.
~splat
splat wrote:
"Yes I'm rollin in it; I could probably freak on you...."
Cinco-X wrote:
Hi guys, gosh, the mkt was up so everything is fine.
Except it isn't.
Rob Dawg wrote:
Yes, a Greek name after his victory that lost the war.I think the name might come from Epirus, in current NW Greece, from where the Greeks repulsed the Italians in 1940-41. Pyrrus was much earlier, but the result was much the same after the Germans entered the fray.
lawyerliz wrote:
Speaking as a member of the 1%, everything is indeed fine.
~splat
edit: I'm not really part of the corrupt oligarchy
splat wrote:
"Baby your breath is killin' me; nobody gonna take you if you don't stop stinkin'"....
splat wrote:
"Mes'can people don't eat sugar, especially when it's a mixture of lice and tiger DNA"...
boy, some of our resident kick ass daddy boys sure are touchy about all things Ayn.....you'd almost think the Maestro hisself was lurking...
Haralambos wrote:
However, when there's a need to pay attention people can. What doomed the US wasn't attention span; it was 50+ years of not needing to pay attention because government could and did provide every socialist fantasy to every constituent using debt.
We've had 3 or 4 generations of people that thought there really were no limits on what debt could provide. When you really don't need government to decide EITHER this kick-ass cool war or THAT smothering-mommy program - because you can have both - then you really don't need government at all. Until you suddenly do, but then it's too late. Like now.
(Note to true-believer knee-jerk reaction people. I'm talking about all forms of debt, public and private).
It looks like it is all quiet on the Eastern Front here in Greece and the Western Front. I hope they have their northern flank covered tonight. I will be back tomorrow if there is anything new. Thanks to folks for the questions and encouragement and apologies to CR for turning so many threads into Eurozone issues. Be well, all.
Cinco-X wrote:
Heh.. their work kills me, this had me rolling.
YouTube - "Beard With Glue" — a Bad Lip Reading
~splat
lawyerliz wrote:
it's a chimera
Say, did you ask Hub about the asteroid, which is now in mainstream news, passing a projected .85 LD (lunar distance) from Earth Nov 8/9, 2011?
I also gather that one of the largest ever solar flares should be happening at the same tiome, blasting incredible forces straight at Earth and in the path of the asteroid, called YU55.
here's the NBC news clip plus some other stuff:
YouTube - YouTube user: MrCometwatch
People on this blog have interesting ways of looking at THINGS.
Gibbous this day
Our daily dread.
" Be well, all. "
I enjoy reading your comments. Sleep Tight.
splat wrote:
"The zebra thinks he's half not black"
Solar flares can mess up communications and satellites, and maybe a disastrous amount of electronic stuff, but the particles thereof could hardly move anything the size of a baseball.
But you knew that.
lawyerliz wrote:
They can take out the electrical grid, which is already under stress from recent events...
I understand there actually is an answer to whether Zebra is white with black stripes or vice versa, but I don't remember what it is and I don't understand why anybody should care.
True.
Try and esplain the stripes on zebras on revolucion ave in Tijuana?
lawyerliz wrote:
Hmm.. Post Electronics Society. Could be a great opportunity for the semiconductor co's to resell lots of fried hardware.
~splat
Yancy posted....Juvenal Delinquent wrote:
A little harsh there bearly, seeing as she's been married since before the turn of the century, but how would you know that, other than googling it, like I just did.
This doesn't prove bearly wrong.
Wow. A Calvinball master!
"Gibbous this day
Our daily dread. "
Speaking of dreads where's HG?
lawyerliz wrote:
gonna complicate the situation
the thing has the potential to react not according to model
do they really know anything for sure other than a rock the size of Rhode Island is fixing to do a fly by?
lawyerliz wrote:
Sure, but what if the asteroid is zooming in and passes through the wake of the moon, and bumps off a wave, changes directions and crashes into the earth?
Because Zebras with stripes that deviate slightly more to the left are racially inferior to Zebras with right leaning stripes.
~splat
Eskimo
Rolling?
poic wrote:
pissing away his life savings on starting a new bidness
volker the viking wrote:
Said the statistically abnormal - when it comes to optimism - pessimist.
NOTaREALmerican wrote:
No one will care about the economy any more.
NOTaREALmerican wrote:
It's probably headed straight for Greece, in fact.
NOTaREALmerican wrote:
I, for one, would benefit from an opinion from the hub.
volker the viking wrote:
Any idea how corrupt the Rhode Island sized visitor is?
JP wrote:
Maybe there's a CDS for this?
NOTaREALmerican wrote:
so you say
I been doing same for three years now.
There was a Star Trek I show about that.
These 2 guys--the last 2 guys of their planet--were locked in mortal combat. At the end
asks why they were fighting.
It's obvous, they say, the other guy is colored wrongly. But, you are both half black and half white!! Yes, but he is black on the right, whereas I am black on the left. Nice little sermon.
volker the viking wrote:
From Boston, the Hub of the Universe?
When I see him, I will ask him.
He doesn't seem worried tho.
Juvenal Delinquent wrote:
13 football fields on a side....much smaller than RI...
lawyerliz wrote:
That's exactly where I got it from
~splat
Cinco-X wrote:
JP wrote:
it would seem they project a potential for water impact thus the test for the World Tsunami Alert System Nov 8, and the concurrent nationwide test of the emergency broadcast system
they're gonna interrupt all radio and television, cable, wireless, PC, and anything connected to the world wide web at 3 PM that afternoon. You can look it up.
Here in the swamp we're gonna be as off the grid as possible with all computers unplugged, turned off, and hopefully escaping notice.
convexity wrote:
True, it is not adjusted for pop growth, however the states have been continuiously tightening the standards for who is elegible to get UE benefits. The number of eleigble workers is actually smaller than it was a few years ago. It is interesting to plot the number of continuing claims (regular state based) versus the insured unemployment rate. While on a week to week basis or even year to year, the two track eachother prettywell, but over time there is a huge divergence. If you go to the FRED database, the items are CCSA and IURSA
Just getting ready to leave Vegas - was here all week for the SEMA 'Auto' Show [specialty/sport equipment mfg assn]. Fun show. Absolutely packed. An exhibitor told me the attendance was 30% above last year and last year was better than the year before. Lotsa car bling. Awesome sports cars and hot rods on display too.
I had come in early and also went to ATRA & APRA [engine and tranny rebuilders ass'ns] and also AAPEX [aftermarket parts & equipment]. The aftermarket show is really two shows -- one is for the bigger 'tier one' part mfgrs and the other in the basement below the first is for the parts suppliers. Most of them from offshore. We refer to the basement as 'Chinatown'. The Chinese seem to be here in even more numbers than last year. Others [like the Indians and other South Asians] seemed way off. You really have to see Chinatown to believe it.
Anyway I point this out because the difference between the two is striking. The 'low brow' products area as represented by Chinatown seemed desperate and poorly attended - meanwhile those buyers looking for the hottest 'matte' detailing paint colors or interior bling were elbowing each other to get access.
Just saying...
thanks LL, I'm not so worried as I am seeking to verify whether I should trust
JP wrote:
>
So no need to worry about the default? Risk ON!
Headed for Merritt Island.
I suspect the only banana republic that Bachman is familiar with it the one at the Mall. She is however right (broken clock) about our turning into one, and mostly because of the sort of policies she favors. If you want to live in a banana republic, vote for a banana republican
lawyerliz wrote:
When is impact?
dryfly wrote:
What about Vegas in general. Any sign of Austerity?
(Heard she was around there for awhile.)
NOTaREALmerican wrote:
We've been through that: eGADS for aster-risk.
There was an asteroid the size of Nantucket
Some were concerned, others said i'll duck it
We stayed up late one night hoping for a fright
Awoke next dawn to find out everything was alright
Dirk van Dijk wrote:
Or a banana democrat feeding loot to Big-MIC, Big-Road, Big-Water, Big-Airport, Big-Ed, Big-FIRE, Big-House, Big-Energy, or Big-PoliceState for our children's future (and their perpetual re-election)?
NOTaREALmerican quoted:
AWWWWK
WHEEEEEE!!!!!
gonna be a heckuva light show!
Banana Republic = Plantain B
dryfly,
You sure picked a nice week for Vegas as far as the weather goes, it was perfect over the weekend...
Busy this week. Up by the nicer joints - packed. I crashed a high end investment seminar at the Bellagio and all I can say is they live better than I do.
Down where I was staying [nyny] it wasn't too busy at all - which is why I stay here - I can work and get stuff done.
BAC dilution announcement taking a toll:
Bank of America Corporation Com (NYSE: BAC )
After Hours: 6.74 -0.17 (-2.46%) 5:54PM EDT
Not that they need capital or anything. It just seemed like a good time to dilute.
They didn't need Warren's money either.
And they didn't need to sell any assets in that Chinese bank.
STOP LOOKING AT THEIR BOOKS!
lawyerliz wrote:
he's probably remaining calm, and acting like nothing's going on, so you won't get freaked out
inside, he's sweating bullets
"Are slavic women genuinely gorgeous, or am i programmed as a genetic western european to want to reproduce with them?"
'chutes: This is just for you....
YouTube - Hai Ne Ne Ne, Russian gypsy music
YouTube - Russian Gypsy music - Two Guitars" - "Две гитары
Chart comparing accuracy of Silver price predictions over 7,5 months (included both May and September peaks and drops) and extension of prediction for 1 month:
Silver price prediction next month based on 7,5 month good accuracy chart
Ya the weather was nice - didn't see a lot of it though.
Hello!
I'm in Tucson, Az.
I asked whether it was time for more money to be poured into the FRE/FNM black hole about 3 hours ago:
Freddie Mac asks for $6 billion from Treasury - MarketWatch
Are the dreads still frayed and :smelly: HG?
Or are they styling?
You brought a kayak to the desert? You're an idiot.
dude, isn't that a prole violation?
"If I'm not mistaken, the women of the Ukraine are descendents of the women that the Greeks called Amazons...I'd say that qualifies as a bit more genetic oomph.... "
The archeologists aren't exactly sure but they suspect the Scythians, out of the steppes of the 'stans. PBS did a program on the graves that were found.
Archaeological Finds Pertaining to the Amazons
Back to reading the thread.
JP wrote:
Thank you.
Juvenal Delinquent wrote:
I sure as hell wouldn't live here.
The sand should be good for your dreads though.
poic<
Still styling, bro.
Lol
No biking for me this weekend. Pulled a muscle badly in my chest on the last day in Maui. That's what I get for trying to keep up with my wife while swimming.
poic wrote:
You big baby.
We're out here for a wedding.
poic wrote:
Maybe you weren't supposed to keep up.
Do you have life insurance?
You gonna go
on the Colorado River?
JP wrote:
6 tenths of a T. Hardly even worth mentioning. If you can't help your friends in Big-FIRE with 6 tenths of a T what's the point of having friends.
poic wrote:
you need to get back to work so you can relax
NOTaREALmerican wrote:
You work in a bank, right?
HomeGnome wrote:
you're starting a wedding planning business?
Juvenal Delinquent wrote:
Sadly, no.
Just the wedding action this time around.
Did get a few pics of Occupy Tucson.
"poic wrote:
Pulled a muscle badly in my chest on the last day in Maui.
you need to get back to work so you can relax "
Funny you say that. We had "friends" stay with us for part of our vacation. Best part of the vacation turned out to be before they arrived and after they left.
company is like fish
volker the viking wrote:
You're not very good at this.
"Maybe you weren't supposed to keep up.
Do you have life insurance? "
No way would she let me drown. We still have the deck and one more bathroom to remodel. I'm safe for atleast the next 6 months.
Need a new :keep one eye open at night: icon.
poic wrote:
Not the brown one.
LinkedIn Drops After $1.6 Million Loss - Bloomberg
Greek opposition storm out of parliament, want Papandreou's head - The Globe and Mail
Papandreou will not call for referendum on Greece's Euro membership
Expect early Greece election before referendum: RBC Capital - CNBC-TV18 -
"Greek election still leaves near-term solvency issue"
The Corbett Report | Corbett Report Radio 003 – Money as Debt with Paul Grignon
poic wrote:
LNKD is soooooo yesterday. It's all about the GRPN, baby
HomeGnome wrote:
well, nice you could drop in -
don't be a stranger, now
Want to go down under?
Arizona State Parks: Kartchner Caverns: Home
About an hour from Tucson, and worth a visit...
Game Plan
1) Leverage up to the max & BUY groupon stock, fill orders at any price.
Then Sell
Profit & retire comfortably
Eric wrote:
What? Something about a stove?
you're an idiot
do we need a you're an idiot icon?
I'm thinking about a pair trade
BIG: Summary for Big Lots, Inc. Common Stock- Yahoo! Finance BGR: Summary for BlackRock Energy and Resources - Yahoo! Finance
I'm calling it the BIG-BGR trade.
I have fond memories of the Sonora Desert museum just outside of Tucson.
The desert is beautiful.
you're a genius
How about this icon?
American Idiot Icon by ~HachikoMangaGirl95 on deviantART
"you're a genius "
You're warming the cockles of my heart.
That would be the grenade-heart icon. I don't know how much use it would get.
poic wrote:
Big Lots = Zayre's plus 30 years.
poic wrote:
volker the viking wrote:
Thank you
Papandreou Struggles to Hold On to Power in Greece Before Confidence Vote - Bloomberg
Nov 3, 2011 6:05 PM ET
"Prime Minister George Papandreou struggled to hold on to power after Greece’s largest opposition party rebuffed his overtures to form a national government, raising the prospect of elections that could delay aid needed to prevent default."
I'm telling you, the asteroid is heading straight for Greece.
JP wrote:
been there, was awesome!
Rickkk wrote:
Huh, this morning it looked like the various applied-socialists parties there were coming together for one last fix of free loot for the politically connected. Wonder what happened?
JP wrote:
Another nice spot is the Desert Botanic Garden in Phoenix.
Visit the Desert Botanical Garden | Desert Botanical Garden in Phoenix, AZ
"Huh, this morning it looked like the various applied-socialists parties there were coming together for one last fix of free loot for the politically connected. Wonder what happened? "
Papendreou losing power would give them the fix of free loot. Papendreou out --> no referendum --> next tranche of funds
JP wrote:
then you know more than JPL. And they don't know much, but they seem to think that if they were being forced to predict, then they would predict a water landing, near the western end of the Aleutians
SPOOL wrote:
Both Gems of the Southwest. For the differently minded there's the Pima Air Museum. Home : Pima Air & Space Museum : Tucson, Arizona
That's funny, I have it hitting Lake Michigan.
Ladies and Gentlemen, please check your reinsurance for spirals.
Of course I know more than those pikers. Just ask yourself the question: Where is the gravity greater, Greece or the friggin Aleutians?
The asterisks are clear. I rest my case.
awesome vid
YouTube - YouTube user: MrCometwatch
Greece may leave euro, leaders admit | Business | The Guardian
The Guardian - 4 minutes ago
"Downing Street sources said "strong political pressure to sort itself out" had been put on Greece, while Barack Obama said it was time to "flesh out" ..."
JP wrote:
I thought Greece was the asteroid
8 billion is a fair amount of pressure.
some investor guy quoted/wrote:
Redirect Notice
New Evidence Suggests An Asteroid Couldn't Have Killed The Dinosaurs :: FOOYOH ENTERTAINMENT
Rickkk wrote:
is the technical term "flay"
Isn't Greece more of a hazardroid?
Rickkk wrote:
Strange things are afoot at the Circle-K.
"is the technical term "flay""
Flagellation - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Flagellation of Christ - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Yes the desert in beautiful just west of tuscon. Can pull off the road and drink beer in great beauty.
Uhoh, is pavel online right now?
Rickkk wrote:
Love the art work.
some investor guy wrote:
Flense.
We're in a crucial fix, hanging out.
JP<
We might go to the park.
Thanks for the suggestion
HomeGnome, " I'm in Tucson, Az."
There you Go, Bragging again.
Many Alarms Rang Before MF Global Crashed - NYTimes.com
"On Saturday, Mr. Gensler reached out to H. Rodgin Cohen, a partner at Sullivan & Cromwell who has long served as Wall Street’s go-to lawyer in a crisis. During the tumultuous days of 2008, Mr. Cohen advised a number of embattled Wall Street executives, including Richard S. Fuld Jr. of Lehman Brothers. He now found himself counseling Mr. Corzine.
“We need more documents,” Mr. Gensler told the lawyer, according to people briefed on the conversation. The call set off a scramble at MF Global as employees tried to locate the documents regulators were demanding."
Gensler Testifies on MF Global's Downfall - NYTimes.com
Mr. Gensler first spotted a potential shortfall late last week, calling MF Global’s lawyer to alert the firm. But it was not until around 2 a.m. Monday that the firm fully recognized the magnitude of the missing money. The disclosure sent bidders fleeing and the firm had no choice but to file for bankruptcy.
My fucking head just exploded. Gensler's job is to regulate the industry and punish misbehavior NOT assist in covering it up.
Rob Dawg wrote:
Flensing
From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
"Flensing is the removing of the outer integument (blubber) of whales. English whalemen called it "flenching", while American whalemen called it "cutting-in".
EvilHenryPaulson wrote:
"that'll be cash on the barrel-head son...." Graham Parsons FTW
Huh. We call that liposuction over here.
"We might go to the park.
Thanks for the suggestion "
< HG, Don't go to the bathroom while you're there.
HomeGnome wrote:
The Botanical Garden is great, been there many times.
It really is a habitat zoo.
Disempowered Paper Pusher wrote:
I'm still looking for my marbles.
YouTube - Lost My Marbles
YouTube - Marbles found - clip from Hook
Disempowered Paper Pusher wrote:
yer being a bit ruff on Mr G
If the Greeks are denied a chance at the referendum, won't they just find another way to vote?
woohoo! a replay of the dino destruction (the myth part). we get a north american crater just like the one off mexico in the carib.